[Mine-Q] Trend + momentum ensemble

public
@djgambhir

ETHUSDT · 12h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 3,409 bars in 8.0ms

Net P&L
+26.57%
$2,656.66
Max drawdown
-20.54%
Max run-up
+35.57%
Trades
142
28.2% win rate
Profit factor
1.29
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -20.54%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+0.16%-18.88%7924%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+11.29%-12.64%2744%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01+13.55%-6.85%3625%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.44
Sortino
0.65
Calmar
0.25
Return ÷ max drawdown
1.29
CAGR
+5.18%
Exposure
71.7%

Per trade

Expectancy
$18.71 · +0.79%
Average win / loss
$295.98 / −$90.03
Payoff ratio
3.29
Largest win / loss
$1,474.58 / −$486.27
Longest losing streak(winning: 4)
13 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-20.54%
Longest time under water
696 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
696 days
Under water at the end
11 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$373.55
Funding
−$403.32
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
202
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-33.43%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 142 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-20.62%+24.07%+108.76%
Max drawdown-35.46%-18.69%-10.56%

23% of histories lost money, and 41% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -20.54%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

ema200 length
200
ema50 length
50
roc20 length
20
macd fast length
12
macd slow length
26
macd signal length
9
atr14 length
14
Long entry: roc20 > ▢
0
Long entry: macd.hist > ▢
0
Short entry: roc20 < ▢
0
Short entry: macd.hist < ▢
0
Stop loss (× atr14)
3
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

ETHUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

142 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1short2022-01-01 12:00 @ 3,691.352022-02-05 00:00 @ 2,994.2434d 12h$475.38+19.02%signal
2short2022-02-15 00:00 @ 2,928.282022-02-15 12:00 @ 3,093.6112h−$150.22-5.74%signal
3short2022-02-18 00:00 @ 2,890.172022-02-27 12:00 @ 2,820.899d 12h$61.33+2.38%signal
4short2022-03-05 00:00 @ 2,619.732022-03-16 12:00 @ 2,687.3411d 12h−$65.95-2.54%signal
5long2022-03-25 00:00 @ 3,110.512022-04-07 00:00 @ 3,166.1413d$34.55+1.34%signal
6short2022-04-11 12:00 @ 3,048.642022-04-20 12:00 @ 3,151.919d−$91.75-3.54%signal
7long2022-04-21 12:00 @ 3,149.642022-04-22 00:00 @ 2,980.7112h−$140.09-5.46%signal
8short2022-04-23 12:00 @ 2,956.402022-07-08 00:00 @ 1,237.1675d 12h$1,474.58+58.26%signal
9short2022-07-13 00:00 @ 1,037.672022-07-14 12:00 @ 1,209.841d 12h−$486.27-16.77%stop loss
10short2022-08-08 00:00 @ 1,698.912022-08-08 12:00 @ 1,789.0712h−$150.23-5.41%signal
11long2022-08-09 00:00 @ 1,776.442022-08-09 12:00 @ 1,702.4612h−$116.95-4.27%reverse
12short2022-08-10 12:00 @ 1,705.672022-08-11 00:00 @ 1,853.6212h−$237.70-8.77%signal
13long2022-08-11 12:00 @ 1,903.162022-08-19 12:00 @ 1,706.498d−$278.73-10.51%signal
14short2022-08-20 00:00 @ 1,607.972022-08-25 12:00 @ 1,709.355d 12h−$166.04-6.43%signal
15short2022-08-27 00:00 @ 1,506.922022-09-06 00:00 @ 1,617.2510d−$194.78-7.67%signal
16long2022-09-10 00:00 @ 1,717.832022-09-14 00:00 @ 1,571.604d−$206.40-8.28%signal
17short2022-09-16 00:00 @ 1,471.652022-10-24 00:00 @ 1,363.7038d$179.85+7.37%signal
18long2022-10-26 12:00 @ 1,528.442022-11-08 12:00 @ 1,475.9313d−$91.65-3.69%signal
19short2022-11-09 00:00 @ 1,333.132022-11-30 12:00 @ 1,266.5721d 12h$113.94+4.63%signal
20short2022-12-10 12:00 @ 1,265.452022-12-11 00:00 @ 1,266.1212h−$3.65-0.15%signal
21short2022-12-11 12:00 @ 1,272.682022-12-12 00:00 @ 1,262.6812h$17.10+0.69%signal
22short2022-12-12 12:00 @ 1,253.492022-12-13 00:00 @ 1,275.1412h−$45.67-1.83%signal
23short2022-12-16 12:00 @ 1,211.862023-01-04 12:00 @ 1,251.4219d−$75.31-3.03%signal
24long2023-01-09 12:00 @ 1,318.412023-02-10 00:00 @ 1,544.3631d 12h$388.61+15.77%signal
25long2023-02-16 00:00 @ 1,675.322023-02-25 00:00 @ 1,606.799d−$113.76-4.44%signal
26short2023-03-10 00:00 @ 1,436.132023-03-12 12:00 @ 1,577.612d 12h−$252.24-9.96%stop loss
27long2023-03-13 12:00 @ 1,580.942023-04-21 12:00 @ 1,907.7939d$485.68+19.67%signal
28long2023-05-04 00:00 @ 1,905.122023-05-05 00:00 @ 1,875.761d−$43.26-1.67%signal
29long2023-05-05 12:00 @ 1,911.212023-05-07 00:00 @ 1,894.921d 12h−$25.37-0.98%signal
30long2023-05-07 12:00 @ 1,901.692023-05-08 00:00 @ 1,869.1412h−$46.73-1.82%signal
31long2023-05-22 00:00 @ 1,804.262023-05-22 12:00 @ 1,813.5312h$10.39+0.41%signal
32long2023-05-23 00:00 @ 1,817.042023-05-24 12:00 @ 1,815.001d 12h−$6.24-0.24%signal
33long2023-05-25 00:00 @ 1,799.202023-05-25 12:00 @ 1,788.2812h−$18.15-0.71%signal
34long2023-05-27 00:00 @ 1,827.182023-05-27 12:00 @ 1,825.4412h−$5.26-0.21%signal
35long2023-05-28 00:00 @ 1,829.222023-06-06 00:00 @ 1,809.679d−$34.16-1.34%signal
36short2023-06-10 12:00 @ 1,746.522023-06-21 00:00 @ 1,791.7310d 12h−$66.68-2.62%signal
37long2023-06-21 12:00 @ 1,829.382023-07-07 00:00 @ 1,844.4415d 12h$8.57+0.34%signal
38long2023-07-14 00:00 @ 2,005.172023-07-17 12:00 @ 1,877.033d 12h−$166.13-6.56%stop loss
39short2023-08-01 12:00 @ 1,829.652023-08-02 00:00 @ 1,873.4312h−$61.91-2.48%reverse
40short2023-08-03 00:00 @ 1,838.702023-08-09 12:00 @ 1,862.636d 12h−$30.64-1.24%signal
41long2023-08-11 12:00 @ 1,851.062023-08-12 00:00 @ 1,847.6712h−$7.09-0.29%signal
42long2023-08-13 00:00 @ 1,849.512023-08-13 12:00 @ 1,848.5512h−$3.96-0.16%signal
43long2023-08-14 12:00 @ 1,847.862023-08-15 00:00 @ 1,844.4312h−$7.28-0.30%signal
44short2023-08-16 00:00 @ 1,823.592023-09-18 12:00 @ 1,655.5033d 12h$226.78+9.20%signal
45short2023-09-22 12:00 @ 1,596.052023-09-27 12:00 @ 1,629.245d−$53.58-2.12%signal
46long2023-10-02 00:00 @ 1,733.752023-10-02 12:00 @ 1,627.9212h−$156.09-6.22%stop loss
47short2023-10-08 12:00 @ 1,616.932023-10-20 12:00 @ 1,612.8412d$8.05+0.33%signal
48long2023-10-24 00:00 @ 1,766.702023-12-18 12:00 @ 2,142.6255d 12h$464.25+18.79%signal
49long2023-12-22 12:00 @ 2,315.522024-01-03 12:00 @ 2,088.7812d−$288.18-11.14%stop loss
50long2024-01-09 12:00 @ 2,299.212024-01-22 12:00 @ 2,380.5113d$75.65+3.01%signal
51long2024-02-02 12:00 @ 2,317.942024-02-03 00:00 @ 2,307.5412h−$14.16-0.56%signal
52long2024-02-03 12:00 @ 2,303.182024-02-04 00:00 @ 2,294.9512h−$11.68-0.46%signal
53long2024-02-04 12:00 @ 2,305.072024-02-05 00:00 @ 2,288.2012h−$21.27-0.84%signal
54long2024-02-05 12:00 @ 2,329.042024-02-06 00:00 @ 2,300.3712h−$33.80-1.34%signal
55long2024-02-06 12:00 @ 2,325.052024-03-17 00:00 @ 3,524.8639d 12h$1,168.96+46.50%signal
56long2024-03-27 00:00 @ 3,590.372024-03-28 00:00 @ 3,504.291d−$72.32-2.58%signal
57long2024-03-29 00:00 @ 3,564.712024-03-31 00:00 @ 3,507.962d−$52.58-1.89%signal
58long2024-03-31 12:00 @ 3,614.102024-04-02 00:00 @ 3,505.821d 12h−$90.66-3.27%signal
59long2024-04-08 12:00 @ 3,636.912024-04-12 12:00 @ 3,250.834d−$300.02-10.90%stop loss
60short2024-04-14 00:00 @ 3,004.872024-04-24 00:00 @ 3,218.6710d−$188.86-7.05%reverse
61long2024-04-24 12:00 @ 3,280.812024-04-25 00:00 @ 3,138.2112h−$117.00-4.45%signal
62long2024-04-26 00:00 @ 3,155.072024-04-26 12:00 @ 3,126.9112h−$25.94-1.00%signal
63long2024-04-27 00:00 @ 3,130.612024-04-27 12:00 @ 3,122.7412h−$9.55-0.37%signal
64long2024-04-28 00:00 @ 3,254.622024-04-29 12:00 @ 3,157.601d 12h−$80.97-3.12%signal
65long2024-04-30 00:00 @ 3,215.922024-04-30 12:00 @ 3,005.3412h−$171.24-6.66%signal
66short2024-05-01 00:00 @ 3,011.972024-05-05 12:00 @ 3,137.194d 12h−$105.69-4.18%reverse
67long2024-05-06 12:00 @ 3,148.522024-05-07 00:00 @ 3,060.8912h−$72.34-2.89%signal
68short2024-05-08 12:00 @ 2,989.032024-05-18 00:00 @ 3,091.099d 12h−$81.71-3.29%signal
69long2024-05-18 12:00 @ 3,133.482024-06-11 12:00 @ 3,530.1524d$284.62+11.55%signal
70long2024-06-22 00:00 @ 3,517.882024-06-22 12:00 @ 3,490.9412h−$22.20-0.88%signal
71long2024-06-23 12:00 @ 3,497.582024-06-24 00:00 @ 3,418.7012h−$59.64-2.36%signal
72short2024-06-24 12:00 @ 3,318.732024-06-28 12:00 @ 3,452.294d−$100.74-4.01%reverse
73short2024-07-04 00:00 @ 3,294.092024-07-15 12:00 @ 3,339.5111d 12h−$31.02-1.25%signal
74long2024-07-16 00:00 @ 3,482.322024-07-25 00:00 @ 3,333.569d−$113.03-4.55%signal
75short2024-07-25 12:00 @ 3,170.262024-07-29 12:00 @ 3,374.704d−$158.82-6.47%signal
76short2024-07-30 00:00 @ 3,316.202024-07-30 12:00 @ 3,334.0112h−$14.90-0.62%signal
77short2024-07-31 00:00 @ 3,277.512024-08-24 00:00 @ 2,762.1324d$379.33+15.74%signal
78short2024-08-28 00:00 @ 2,455.492024-09-19 12:00 @ 2,434.4922d 12h$23.35+0.93%signal
79short2024-10-02 00:00 @ 2,446.362024-10-13 00:00 @ 2,475.5811d−$26.81-1.07%signal
80long2024-10-21 00:00 @ 2,747.532024-10-23 12:00 @ 2,555.612d 12h−$179.47-7.17%stop loss
81short2024-10-24 12:00 @ 2,528.462024-10-29 00:00 @ 2,566.994d 12h−$36.78-1.50%signal
82short2024-11-01 12:00 @ 2,515.352024-11-06 12:00 @ 2,630.365d−$110.91-4.53%signal
83long2024-11-07 00:00 @ 2,723.042024-12-19 00:00 @ 3,624.6842d$730.05+30.14%signal
84short2024-12-20 12:00 @ 3,103.372024-12-30 12:00 @ 3,424.1710d−$265.31-10.19%reverse
85long2025-01-02 00:00 @ 3,360.022025-01-02 12:00 @ 3,469.8912h$79.89+3.15%signal
86long2025-01-03 00:00 @ 3,455.522025-01-03 12:00 @ 3,464.0512h$3.24+0.13%signal
87long2025-01-04 00:00 @ 3,608.622025-01-08 00:00 @ 3,378.694d−$168.61-6.59%signal
88short2025-01-10 00:00 @ 3,217.602025-01-16 00:00 @ 3,450.506d−$181.43-7.21%signal
89long2025-01-18 00:00 @ 3,473.072025-01-18 12:00 @ 3,309.8812h−$119.02-4.82%signal
90short2025-01-20 00:00 @ 3,213.522025-01-20 12:00 @ 3,376.3612h−$125.73-5.15%signal
91long2025-01-21 00:00 @ 3,283.872025-01-21 12:00 @ 3,303.7412h$11.68+0.48%signal
92long2025-01-22 00:00 @ 3,327.382025-01-22 12:00 @ 3,324.8512h−$4.72-0.20%signal
93long2025-01-24 00:00 @ 3,338.542025-01-25 00:00 @ 3,307.951d−$25.23-1.05%signal
94long2025-01-25 12:00 @ 3,306.172025-01-26 00:00 @ 3,317.2512h$5.45+0.23%signal
95short2025-01-27 12:00 @ 3,056.882025-01-31 12:00 @ 3,334.894d−$219.30-9.11%signal
96short2025-02-02 12:00 @ 3,062.892025-02-24 00:00 @ 2,819.1021d 12h$188.04+7.99%signal
97short2025-02-25 00:00 @ 2,511.762025-04-23 00:00 @ 1,755.9357d$726.94+30.30%signal
98short2025-05-06 12:00 @ 1,768.742025-05-07 00:00 @ 1,816.5912h−$72.55-2.81%signal
99long2025-05-09 00:00 @ 2,206.972025-06-06 00:00 @ 2,412.4228d$219.82+8.58%signal
100long2025-06-10 00:00 @ 2,679.672025-06-13 12:00 @ 2,543.423d 12h−$137.79-5.26%signal
101short2025-06-22 00:00 @ 2,294.182025-06-30 00:00 @ 2,499.758d−$232.73-9.01%signal
102long2025-07-01 00:00 @ 2,484.802025-07-01 12:00 @ 2,447.6412h−$40.51-1.60%signal
103long2025-07-02 00:00 @ 2,404.142025-07-02 12:00 @ 2,444.0412h$39.03+1.55%signal
104long2025-07-03 00:00 @ 2,569.882025-08-03 00:00 @ 3,391.7431d$781.51+30.95%signal
105long2025-08-08 00:00 @ 3,909.182025-09-02 00:00 @ 4,312.1425d$263.58+9.69%signal
106long2025-09-11 12:00 @ 4,428.952025-09-22 00:00 @ 4,442.1110d 12h$1.60+0.06%signal
107long2025-10-02 12:00 @ 4,378.122025-10-09 12:00 @ 4,370.127d−$11.50-0.41%signal
108short2025-10-11 00:00 @ 3,819.242025-10-21 00:00 @ 3,978.3410d−$117.11-4.21%reverse
109long2025-10-27 00:00 @ 4,157.192025-10-29 00:00 @ 3,976.762d−$123.29-4.48%signal
110long2025-10-29 12:00 @ 4,009.932025-10-30 00:00 @ 3,899.6012h−$77.73-2.85%signal
111short2025-10-30 12:00 @ 3,878.742025-12-04 00:00 @ 3,187.7234d 12h$489.85+18.11%signal
112short2025-12-14 00:00 @ 3,112.382025-12-15 12:00 @ 3,156.311d 12h−$41.88-1.48%signal
113short2025-12-16 00:00 @ 2,962.662026-01-02 00:00 @ 3,003.1017d−$36.05-1.28%signal
114short2026-01-13 00:00 @ 3,093.232026-01-13 12:00 @ 3,133.4012h−$38.88-1.39%signal
115long2026-01-14 00:00 @ 3,325.342026-01-20 12:00 @ 3,107.536d 12h−$188.81-6.75%signal
116short2026-01-21 00:00 @ 2,937.662026-03-05 00:00 @ 2,126.4043d$753.12+27.38%signal
117short2026-03-08 00:00 @ 1,968.002026-03-10 12:00 @ 2,061.182d 12h−$142.91-4.86%signal
118short2026-03-23 00:00 @ 2,052.452026-03-23 12:00 @ 2,134.3312h−$118.95-4.10%signal
119short2026-03-26 00:00 @ 2,167.572026-04-01 00:00 @ 2,104.906d$79.06+2.75%signal
120long2026-04-14 00:00 @ 2,369.272026-04-24 00:00 @ 2,328.4710d−$51.62-1.78%reverse
121short2026-04-24 12:00 @ 2,326.242026-04-25 00:00 @ 2,314.3312h$11.53+0.40%signal
122short2026-04-25 12:00 @ 2,312.012026-04-26 00:00 @ 2,318.6712h−$11.33-0.39%signal
123short2026-04-27 12:00 @ 2,318.302026-04-28 00:00 @ 2,302.7412h$16.24+0.56%signal
124short2026-04-28 12:00 @ 2,273.942026-04-29 00:00 @ 2,288.8212h−$21.77-0.75%signal
125short2026-04-30 00:00 @ 2,251.082026-05-01 12:00 @ 2,285.781d 12h−$47.98-1.67%signal
126short2026-05-02 00:00 @ 2,293.882026-05-02 12:00 @ 2,301.4512h−$12.45-0.43%signal
127short2026-05-03 00:00 @ 2,315.452026-05-03 12:00 @ 2,319.3412h−$7.63-0.27%signal
128long2026-05-05 00:00 @ 2,346.592026-05-08 00:00 @ 2,289.463d−$71.05-2.48%signal
129short2026-05-09 12:00 @ 2,313.232026-05-10 00:00 @ 2,325.7012h−$17.93-0.63%signal
130long2026-05-11 00:00 @ 2,370.682026-05-12 12:00 @ 2,285.451d 12h−$105.36-3.71%signal
131short2026-05-13 00:00 @ 2,273.162026-07-03 00:00 @ 1,700.2351d$715.48+25.43%signal
132short2026-07-25 00:00 @ 1,860.212026-07-25 12:00 @ 1,857.4112h$1.74+0.06%signal
133short2026-07-26 00:00 @ 1,873.562026-07-26 12:00 @ 1,885.3812h−$21.87-0.73%signal
134short2026-07-31 12:00 @ 1,883.172026-08-01 00:00 @ 1,862.0512h$30.47+1.02%signal
135short2026-08-01 12:00 @ 1,865.812026-08-03 00:00 @ 1,884.761d 12h−$32.96-1.10%signal
136short2026-08-03 12:00 @ 1,838.602026-08-04 00:00 @ 1,860.1512h−$37.89-1.27%signal
137short2026-08-05 00:00 @ 1,868.532026-08-05 12:00 @ 1,868.3012h−$2.50-0.08%signal
138short2026-08-06 00:00 @ 1,907.572026-08-06 12:00 @ 1,907.2612h−$2.46-0.08%signal
139short2026-08-13 00:00 @ 1,878.412026-08-13 12:00 @ 1,879.8712h−$4.87-0.16%signal
140short2026-08-16 00:00 @ 1,881.352026-08-16 12:00 @ 1,880.5212h−$1.60-0.05%signal
141short2026-08-17 00:00 @ 1,874.832026-08-17 12:00 @ 1,904.1312h−$49.18-1.65%signal
142long2026-08-19 12:00 @ 1,922.732026-09-01 00:00 @ 2,457.3812d 12h$810.13+27.35%end of data

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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