[Famous-PA] Darvas box breakout
public
@djgambhirDOTUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-01 → 2026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 6.7ms
Net P&L
-19.04%
−$1,903.86
Max drawdown
-21.58%
Max run-up
+23.56%
Trades
106
26.4% win rate
Profit factor
0.74
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -21.58%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
| Segment | Period | Return | Max drawdown | Trades | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training | 2022-01-01 → 2024-10-19 | -19.07% | -21.27% | 66 | 21% |
| Validation | 2024-10-19 → 2025-09-25 | +1.11% | -16.59% | 21 | 29% |
| Out-of-sample | 2025-09-25 → 2026-09-01 | -1.06% | -6.60% | 19 | 42% |
Risk-adjusted
- Sharpe
- -0.38
- Sortino
- -0.56
- Calmar
- -0.21
- Return ÷ max drawdown
- -0.88
- CAGR
- -4.43%
- Exposure
- 18.7%
Per trade
- Expectancy
- −$17.96 · -0.72%
- Average win / loss
- $189.53 / −$92.44
- Payoff ratio
- 2.05
- Largest win / loss
- $780.56 / −$213.43
- Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
- 9 trades
Drawdown over time
- Max drawdown
- -21.58%
- Longest time under water(still going at the end)
- 1689 days
- Worst drawdown recovered in
- not recovered
Costs and mechanics
- Fees paid
- −$224.99
- Funding
- −$163.72
- Liquidations
- 0
- Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
- 23
- Benchmark(buy and hold)
- -96.84%
Monte Carlo
1,000 alternative histories, each 106 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.
this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
| Unlucky (5%) | Typical | Lucky (95%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return | -40.87% | -19.57% | +13.60% |
| Max drawdown | -43.64% | -28.63% | -14.48% |
84% of histories lost money, and 76% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -21.58%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.
Settings
- hh20 length
- 20
- ll10 length
- 10
- volsma length
- 20
- atr14 length
- 14
- Long entry: volume > ▢ × volsma
- 1.5
- Stop loss (× atr14)
- 2
- Leverage (×)
- 1
- Position size (% of equity)
- 25
DOTUSDT with every trade
Loading prices…
▲ long opened▼ short opened● closed at a profit● closed at a loss
Trades
106 trades
| # | Side | Entry | Exit | Held | P&L | Return | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | long | 2022-01-02 16:00 @ 29.69 | 2022-01-05 16:00 @ 27.79 | 3d | −$163.73 | -6.55% | stop loss |
| 2 | long | 2022-01-11 20:00 @ 25.67 | 2022-01-17 04:00 @ 26.49 | 5d 8h | $77.61 | +3.16% | signal |
| 3 | long | 2022-01-31 20:00 @ 19.09 | 2022-02-03 00:00 @ 18.75 | 2d 4h | −$45.29 | -1.83% | signal |
| 4 | long | 2022-02-07 16:00 @ 22.56 | 2022-02-08 12:00 @ 21.21 | 20h | −$149.02 | -6.04% | stop loss |
| 5 | long | 2022-02-15 12:00 @ 19.69 | 2022-02-17 12:00 @ 18.54 | 2d | −$143.95 | -5.92% | stop loss |
| 6 | long | 2022-03-11 12:00 @ 18.22 | 2022-03-13 20:00 @ 17.13 | 2d 8h | −$143.83 | -6.01% | stop loss |
| 7 | long | 2022-03-19 16:00 @ 19.57 | 2022-03-20 08:00 @ 18.69 | 16h | −$107.18 | -4.55% | stop loss |
| 8 | long | 2022-03-23 16:00 @ 20.84 | 2022-03-31 20:00 @ 21.29 | 8d 4h | $51.88 | +2.23% | signal |
| 9 | long | 2022-05-04 20:00 @ 16.05 | 2022-05-05 12:00 @ 15.12 | 16h | −$138.18 | -5.89% | stop loss |
| 10 | long | 2022-05-23 16:00 @ 10.58 | 2022-05-23 20:00 @ 9.84 | 4h | −$163.18 | -7.07% | stop loss |
| 11 | long | 2022-06-20 12:00 @ 7.97 | 2022-06-22 08:00 @ 7.40 | 1d 20h | −$162.84 | -7.18% | signal |
| 12 | long | 2022-07-04 16:00 @ 6.99 | 2022-07-05 12:00 @ 6.58 | 20h | −$131.25 | -5.89% | stop loss |
| 13 | long | 2022-07-16 20:00 @ 7.09 | 2022-07-21 00:00 @ 7.46 | 4d 4h | $115.87 | +5.28% | signal |
| 14 | long | 2022-07-31 20:00 @ 9.00 | 2022-08-01 12:00 @ 8.32 | 16h | −$170.00 | -7.64% | stop loss |
| 15 | long | 2022-08-08 12:00 @ 9.32 | 2022-08-09 12:00 @ 8.82 | 1d | −$119.54 | -5.48% | stop loss |
| 16 | long | 2022-08-10 16:00 @ 9.53 | 2022-08-14 16:00 @ 9.18 | 4d | −$80.19 | -3.73% | signal |
| 17 | long | 2022-08-23 12:00 @ 7.62 | 2022-08-26 08:00 @ 7.44 | 2d 20h | −$51.53 | -2.42% | signal |
| 18 | long | 2022-09-02 16:00 @ 7.54 | 2022-09-03 00:00 @ 7.17 | 8h | −$106.82 | -5.04% | stop loss |
| 19 | long | 2022-09-05 04:00 @ 7.58 | 2022-09-05 16:00 @ 7.27 | 12h | −$88.94 | -4.25% | stop loss |
| 20 | long | 2022-09-27 04:00 @ 6.75 | 2022-09-27 16:00 @ 6.44 | 12h | −$96.69 | -4.67% | stop loss |
| 21 | long | 2022-10-25 16:00 @ 6.15 | 2022-10-28 00:00 @ 6.32 | 2d 8h | $55.93 | +2.73% | signal |
| 22 | long | 2022-11-07 20:00 @ 7.34 | 2022-11-08 00:00 @ 6.93 | 4h | −$117.98 | -5.73% | stop loss |
| 23 | long | 2022-12-02 12:00 @ 5.61 | 2022-12-05 20:00 @ 5.46 | 3d 8h | −$53.70 | -2.65% | signal |
| 24 | long | 2023-01-02 04:00 @ 4.44 | 2023-01-25 00:00 @ 6.19 | 22d 20h | $780.56 | +38.70% | signal |
| 25 | long | 2023-02-02 16:00 @ 6.63 | 2023-02-05 16:00 @ 6.62 | 3d | −$6.96 | -0.31% | signal |
| 26 | long | 2023-02-16 00:00 @ 6.61 | 2023-02-16 20:00 @ 6.36 | 20h | −$88.10 | -3.99% | stop loss |
| 27 | long | 2023-02-17 16:00 @ 6.83 | 2023-02-22 16:00 @ 6.92 | 5d | $23.14 | +1.06% | signal |
| 28 | long | 2023-03-14 16:00 @ 6.51 | 2023-03-14 20:00 @ 6.11 | 4h | −$135.92 | -6.20% | stop loss |
| 29 | long | 2023-03-31 16:00 @ 6.33 | 2023-04-03 00:00 @ 6.09 | 2d 8h | −$85.16 | -3.94% | stop loss |
| 30 | long | 2023-04-03 20:00 @ 6.45 | 2023-04-03 20:00 @ 6.17 | 0m | −$94.41 | -4.41% | stop loss |
| 31 | long | 2023-04-11 00:00 @ 6.29 | 2023-04-19 12:00 @ 6.47 | 8d 12h | $54.20 | +2.56% | signal |
| 32 | long | 2023-04-26 16:00 @ 6.20 | 2023-04-26 16:00 @ 5.92 | 0m | −$99.34 | -4.67% | stop loss |
| 33 | long | 2023-05-05 16:00 @ 5.82 | 2023-05-06 12:00 @ 5.64 | 20h | −$69.14 | -3.29% | stop loss |
| 34 | long | 2023-05-29 00:00 @ 5.50 | 2023-05-31 04:00 @ 5.38 | 2d 4h | −$50.38 | -2.41% | stop loss |
| 35 | long | 2023-06-14 20:00 @ 4.72 | 2023-06-14 20:00 @ 4.53 | 0m | −$85.83 | -4.14% | stop loss |
| 36 | long | 2023-06-21 20:00 @ 4.80 | 2023-06-27 00:00 @ 5.02 | 5d 4h | $91.50 | +4.46% | signal |
| 37 | long | 2023-07-12 04:00 @ 5.25 | 2023-07-12 20:00 @ 5.10 | 16h | −$61.54 | -2.97% | stop loss |
| 38 | long | 2023-07-13 16:00 @ 5.36 | 2023-07-16 20:00 @ 5.31 | 3d 4h | −$23.87 | -1.16% | signal |
| 39 | long | 2023-07-20 12:00 @ 5.45 | 2023-07-24 08:00 @ 5.22 | 3d 20h | −$87.37 | -4.25% | stop loss |
| 40 | long | 2023-08-28 16:00 @ 4.57 | 2023-08-31 04:00 @ 4.48 | 2d 12h | −$39.04 | -1.92% | signal |
| 41 | long | 2023-09-25 08:00 @ 4.06 | 2023-09-26 20:00 @ 3.97 | 1d 12h | −$46.85 | -2.32% | stop loss |
| 42 | long | 2023-10-01 12:00 @ 4.20 | 2023-10-02 16:00 @ 4.12 | 1d 4h | −$38.59 | -1.92% | stop loss |
| 43 | long | 2023-10-16 08:00 @ 3.80 | 2023-10-17 08:00 @ 3.72 | 1d | −$43.32 | -2.16% | stop loss |
| 44 | long | 2023-10-21 16:00 @ 3.86 | 2023-11-14 00:00 @ 5.35 | 23d 8h | $754.01 | +37.89% | signal |
| 45 | long | 2023-11-30 16:00 @ 5.49 | 2023-12-11 04:00 @ 6.85 | 10d 12h | $523.78 | +24.04% | signal |
| 46 | long | 2023-12-21 08:00 @ 7.44 | 2023-12-28 16:00 @ 8.38 | 7d 8h | $276.96 | +11.99% | signal |
| 47 | long | 2024-01-11 00:00 @ 7.99 | 2024-01-12 20:00 @ 7.76 | 1d 20h | −$70.84 | -2.98% | signal |
| 48 | long | 2024-01-29 00:00 @ 6.87 | 2024-01-31 20:00 @ 6.58 | 2d 20h | −$102.36 | -4.34% | stop loss |
| 49 | long | 2024-02-08 16:00 @ 7.05 | 2024-02-17 16:00 @ 7.47 | 9d | $128.82 | +5.52% | signal |
| 50 | long | 2024-02-20 00:00 @ 8.04 | 2024-02-20 08:00 @ 7.67 | 8h | −$113.28 | -4.78% | stop loss |
| 51 | long | 2024-02-26 20:00 @ 8.09 | 2024-02-28 16:00 @ 7.74 | 1d 20h | −$109.82 | -4.69% | stop loss |
| 52 | long | 2024-03-03 20:00 @ 9.68 | 2024-03-05 16:00 @ 9.01 | 1d 20h | −$171.58 | -7.42% | stop loss |
| 53 | long | 2024-03-11 20:00 @ 11.05 | 2024-03-12 16:00 @ 10.33 | 20h | −$151.96 | -6.70% | stop loss |
| 54 | long | 2024-03-14 12:00 @ 11.72 | 2024-03-14 16:00 @ 10.88 | 4h | −$163.34 | -7.32% | stop loss |
| 55 | long | 2024-03-25 16:00 @ 9.74 | 2024-04-01 04:00 @ 9.26 | 6d 12h | −$125.71 | -5.74% | stop loss |
| 56 | long | 2024-04-08 12:00 @ 8.99 | 2024-04-09 20:00 @ 8.64 | 1d 8h | −$87.46 | -4.05% | stop loss |
| 57 | long | 2024-05-15 16:00 @ 6.86 | 2024-05-19 16:00 @ 7.03 | 4d | $46.15 | +2.16% | signal |
| 58 | long | 2024-05-20 20:00 @ 7.41 | 2024-05-23 12:00 @ 7.13 | 2d 16h | −$86.41 | -4.02% | stop loss |
| 59 | long | 2024-05-27 16:00 @ 7.73 | 2024-05-28 04:00 @ 7.42 | 12h | −$87.64 | -4.12% | stop loss |
| 60 | long | 2024-06-12 16:00 @ 6.70 | 2024-06-13 12:00 @ 6.39 | 20h | −$99.98 | -4.75% | stop loss |
| 61 | long | 2024-06-27 16:00 @ 6.29 | 2024-06-29 12:00 @ 6.13 | 1d 20h | −$54.39 | -2.61% | signal |
| 62 | long | 2024-07-15 04:00 @ 6.51 | 2024-07-16 04:00 @ 6.27 | 1d | −$78.73 | -3.81% | stop loss |
| 63 | long | 2024-08-20 04:00 @ 4.57 | 2024-08-26 08:00 @ 4.72 | 6d 4h | $59.04 | +2.88% | signal |
| 64 | long | 2024-09-13 16:00 @ 4.42 | 2024-09-16 00:00 @ 4.28 | 2d 8h | −$67.20 | -3.26% | stop loss |
| 65 | long | 2024-10-07 04:00 @ 4.25 | 2024-10-08 00:00 @ 4.12 | 20h | −$68.44 | -3.35% | stop loss |
| 66 | long | 2024-10-14 08:00 @ 4.27 | 2024-10-17 08:00 @ 4.24 | 3d | −$17.51 | -0.86% | signal |
| 67 | long | 2024-10-20 16:00 @ 4.55 | 2024-10-21 12:00 @ 4.40 | 20h | −$69.06 | -3.41% | stop loss |
| 68 | long | 2024-11-06 04:00 @ 4.08 | 2024-11-14 16:00 @ 4.83 | 8d 12h | $357.97 | +17.84% | signal |
| 69 | long | 2024-11-22 04:00 @ 6.17 | 2024-11-26 12:00 @ 7.85 | 4d 8h | $563.12 | +26.87% | signal |
| 70 | long | 2024-12-03 00:00 @ 10.02 | 2024-12-03 12:00 @ 9.13 | 12h | −$203.00 | -9.08% | stop loss |
| 71 | long | 2024-12-04 12:00 @ 11.01 | 2024-12-05 00:00 @ 9.95 | 12h | −$213.43 | -9.77% | stop loss |
| 72 | long | 2025-01-03 12:00 @ 7.69 | 2025-01-05 12:00 @ 7.54 | 2d | −$43.89 | -2.06% | signal |
| 73 | long | 2025-01-15 16:00 @ 7.02 | 2025-01-19 08:00 @ 6.79 | 3d 16h | −$72.41 | -3.41% | signal |
| 74 | long | 2025-01-30 16:00 @ 6.22 | 2025-02-01 20:00 @ 5.86 | 2d 4h | −$123.23 | -5.86% | stop loss |
| 75 | long | 2025-02-11 08:00 @ 5.14 | 2025-02-11 16:00 @ 4.82 | 8h | −$130.67 | -6.31% | stop loss |
| 76 | long | 2025-02-12 20:00 @ 5.28 | 2025-02-15 12:00 @ 5.06 | 2d 16h | −$90.20 | -4.42% | signal |
| 77 | long | 2025-02-21 16:00 @ 5.21 | 2025-02-23 16:00 @ 4.95 | 2d | −$101.45 | -5.03% | signal |
| 78 | long | 2025-03-24 08:00 @ 4.71 | 2025-03-27 12:00 @ 4.58 | 3d 4h | −$60.53 | -3.04% | signal |
| 79 | long | 2025-05-08 04:00 @ 4.17 | 2025-05-13 04:00 @ 4.84 | 5d | $311.13 | +15.74% | signal |
| 80 | long | 2025-06-10 00:00 @ 4.15 | 2025-06-12 08:00 @ 4.05 | 2d 8h | −$51.81 | -2.52% | signal |
| 81 | long | 2025-06-30 00:00 @ 3.54 | 2025-06-30 08:00 @ 3.41 | 8h | −$79.13 | -3.88% | stop loss |
| 82 | long | 2025-07-09 20:00 @ 3.62 | 2025-07-15 04:00 @ 3.83 | 5d 8h | $110.77 | +5.48% | signal |
| 83 | long | 2025-07-18 04:00 @ 4.44 | 2025-07-18 20:00 @ 4.16 | 16h | −$130.70 | -6.38% | stop loss |
| 84 | long | 2025-08-07 12:00 @ 3.79 | 2025-08-11 12:00 @ 3.93 | 4d | $71.70 | +3.56% | signal |
| 85 | long | 2025-08-22 16:00 @ 3.96 | 2025-08-25 08:00 @ 3.91 | 2d 16h | −$29.19 | -1.43% | signal |
| 86 | long | 2025-09-07 16:00 @ 3.97 | 2025-09-15 08:00 @ 4.25 | 7d 16h | $135.90 | +6.70% | signal |
| 87 | long | 2025-09-18 00:00 @ 4.40 | 2025-09-21 16:00 @ 4.28 | 3d 16h | −$61.74 | -3.00% | signal |
| 88 | long | 2025-10-01 12:00 @ 4.08 | 2025-10-04 16:00 @ 4.15 | 3d 4h | $31.51 | +1.54% | signal |
| 89 | long | 2025-10-21 16:00 @ 3.17 | 2025-10-21 20:00 @ 3.00 | 4h | −$110.67 | -5.39% | stop loss |
| 90 | long | 2025-10-26 12:00 @ 3.14 | 2025-10-28 20:00 @ 3.08 | 2d 8h | −$40.37 | -1.99% | signal |
| 91 | long | 2025-11-07 04:00 @ 2.79 | 2025-11-12 00:00 @ 3.05 | 4d 20h | $187.33 | +9.29% | signal |
| 92 | long | 2025-12-09 16:00 @ 2.22 | 2025-12-11 00:00 @ 2.09 | 1d 8h | −$116.68 | -5.66% | stop loss |
| 93 | long | 2025-12-27 20:00 @ 1.83 | 2025-12-30 04:00 @ 1.81 | 2d 8h | −$31.04 | -1.53% | signal |
| 94 | long | 2026-01-01 20:00 @ 2.00 | 2026-01-09 12:00 @ 2.08 | 7d 16h | $71.76 | +3.54% | signal |
| 95 | long | 2026-01-13 16:00 @ 2.24 | 2026-01-15 16:00 @ 2.12 | 2d | −$117.22 | -5.74% | stop loss |
| 96 | long | 2026-02-21 12:00 @ 1.38 | 2026-02-22 08:00 @ 1.32 | 20h | −$90.86 | -4.51% | stop loss |
| 97 | long | 2026-02-25 12:00 @ 1.38 | 2026-02-28 08:00 @ 1.50 | 2d 20h | $169.28 | +8.50% | signal |
| 98 | long | 2026-03-16 08:00 @ 1.58 | 2026-03-18 16:00 @ 1.56 | 2d 8h | −$35.08 | -1.72% | signal |
| 99 | long | 2026-04-06 12:00 @ 1.30 | 2026-04-06 20:00 @ 1.26 | 8h | −$75.00 | -3.70% | stop loss |
| 100 | long | 2026-04-16 08:00 @ 1.27 | 2026-04-18 20:00 @ 1.27 | 2d 12h | $3.90 | +0.19% | signal |
| 101 | long | 2026-05-04 04:00 @ 1.25 | 2026-05-04 08:00 @ 1.21 | 4h | −$67.70 | -3.37% | stop loss |
| 102 | long | 2026-05-05 16:00 @ 1.27 | 2026-05-12 12:00 @ 1.33 | 6d 20h | $83.68 | +4.20% | signal |
| 103 | long | 2026-05-21 20:00 @ 1.30 | 2026-05-22 20:00 @ 1.25 | 1d | −$83.51 | -4.15% | stop loss |
| 104 | long | 2026-06-15 00:00 @ 1.00 | 2026-06-18 04:00 @ 0.98 | 3d 4h | −$35.67 | -1.79% | signal |
| 105 | long | 2026-08-02 04:00 @ 0.79 | 2026-08-06 12:00 @ 0.82 | 4d 8h | $80.36 | +4.06% | signal |
| 106 | long | 2026-08-20 16:00 @ 0.84 | 2026-08-25 16:00 @ 0.88 | 5d | $88.87 | +4.44% | signal |
How this was run
Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.
Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.