[Famous-Q] Turtle System 2 (55/20)

public
@djgambhir

AVAXUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 13.8ms

Net P&L
+37.53%
$3,752.58
Max drawdown
-22.67%
Max run-up
+87.78%
Trades
155
32.3% win rate
Profit factor
1.22
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -22.67%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+55.34%-17.18%9039%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-7.13%-22.24%3321%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-4.67%-13.86%3225%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.46
Sortino
0.71
Calmar
0.31
Return ÷ max drawdown
1.66
CAGR
+7.07%
Exposure
52.6%

Per trade

Expectancy
$24.21 · +1.01%
Average win / loss
$419.49 / −$164.02
Payoff ratio
2.56
Largest win / loss
$2,706.92 / −$404.00
Longest losing streak(winning: 5)
12 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-22.67%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
990 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$529.74
Funding
−$649.92
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
58
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-93.37%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 155 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-23.89%+34.28%+154.74%
Max drawdown-38.86%-22.57%-12.68%

21% of histories lost money, and 50% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -22.67%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh55 length
55
ll55 length
55
hh20 length
20
ll20 length
20
atr20 length
20
Stop loss (× atr20)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

AVAXUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

155 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1short2022-01-06 00:00 @ 97.342022-01-12 12:00 @ 94.816d 12h$65.76+2.63%signal
2short2022-01-21 00:00 @ 79.202022-01-25 20:00 @ 68.874d 20h$325.47+12.93%signal
3long2022-02-04 20:00 @ 76.652022-02-12 00:00 @ 81.707d 4h$169.59+6.53%signal
4long2022-02-16 08:00 @ 96.952022-02-17 12:00 @ 90.331d 4h−$183.75-6.96%stop loss
5short2022-02-22 00:00 @ 69.962022-02-23 04:00 @ 77.311d 4h−$275.82-10.63%stop loss
6long2022-03-01 04:00 @ 86.672022-03-03 12:00 @ 78.392d 8h−$245.08-9.70%stop loss
7short2022-03-07 04:00 @ 71.112022-03-09 00:00 @ 76.971d 20h−$204.87-8.31%stop loss
8short2022-03-14 00:00 @ 67.872022-03-15 16:00 @ 72.151d 16h−$155.13-6.43%stop loss
9long2022-03-18 20:00 @ 86.612022-04-06 04:00 @ 89.1818d 8h$57.88+2.44%signal
10short2022-04-06 16:00 @ 85.102022-04-19 16:00 @ 80.1713d$139.01+5.82%signal
11short2022-04-25 04:00 @ 70.372022-05-04 20:00 @ 67.259d 16h$101.23+4.18%signal
12short2022-05-08 16:00 @ 51.972022-05-30 04:00 @ 27.0421d 12h$1,155.03+47.17%signal
13short2022-06-11 00:00 @ 22.062022-06-20 12:00 @ 17.669d 12h$527.58+19.27%signal
14long2022-06-24 04:00 @ 19.542022-06-29 00:00 @ 18.104d 20h−$216.45-7.54%signal
15long2022-07-08 04:00 @ 20.722022-07-10 08:00 @ 19.232d 4h−$204.56-7.27%stop loss
16long2022-07-18 08:00 @ 23.782022-07-25 00:00 @ 22.056d 16h−$208.74-7.55%stop loss
17short2022-07-26 16:00 @ 19.882022-07-27 16:00 @ 21.561d−$233.70-8.62%stop loss
18long2022-07-30 16:00 @ 25.672022-07-31 20:00 @ 23.751d 4h−$201.90-7.61%stop loss
19long2022-08-06 20:00 @ 26.582022-08-15 08:00 @ 27.688d 12h$100.90+3.88%signal
20short2022-08-17 16:00 @ 26.082022-09-06 04:00 @ 19.9119d 12h$601.10+22.87%signal
21long2022-09-12 12:00 @ 21.472022-09-13 12:00 @ 20.311d−$153.62-5.53%stop loss
22short2022-09-19 00:00 @ 16.692022-09-21 16:00 @ 17.802d 16h−$193.99-7.08%stop loss
23short2022-10-03 00:00 @ 16.522022-10-03 20:00 @ 17.1720h−$110.51-4.11%stop loss
24short2022-10-11 00:00 @ 16.202022-10-23 20:00 @ 16.0212d 20h$23.55+0.88%signal
25long2022-10-25 20:00 @ 16.822022-11-02 12:00 @ 17.847d 16h$155.63+5.83%signal
26long2022-11-05 16:00 @ 19.942022-11-06 20:00 @ 18.821d 4h−$155.99-5.76%stop loss
27short2022-11-08 04:00 @ 17.222022-11-24 00:00 @ 13.0515d 20h$600.29+22.49%signal
28long2022-12-03 00:00 @ 13.582022-12-07 04:00 @ 12.994d 4h−$122.58-4.35%stop loss
29short2022-12-12 00:00 @ 12.972022-12-13 12:00 @ 13.361d 12h−$88.65-3.18%stop loss
30short2022-12-17 00:00 @ 11.832023-01-02 08:00 @ 11.1216d 8h$158.77+5.74%signal
31long2023-01-04 04:00 @ 11.822023-01-06 08:00 @ 11.442d 4h−$93.60-3.33%stop loss
32long2023-01-09 04:00 @ 12.522023-01-09 20:00 @ 12.1216h−$92.87-3.34%stop loss
33long2023-01-10 16:00 @ 12.702023-02-01 08:00 @ 19.2521d 16h$1,388.21+50.30%signal
34long2023-02-02 04:00 @ 22.142023-02-05 12:00 @ 20.603d 8h−$223.82-7.20%stop loss
35short2023-02-09 20:00 @ 18.582023-02-15 16:00 @ 18.535d 20h$8.03+0.26%signal
36long2023-02-20 08:00 @ 20.682023-02-22 12:00 @ 19.572d 4h−$169.87-5.56%stop loss
37short2023-02-25 20:00 @ 17.862023-03-13 00:00 @ 16.1815d 4h$284.35+9.44%signal
38long2023-03-14 16:00 @ 17.772023-03-14 20:00 @ 16.654h−$198.30-6.43%stop loss
39long2023-03-18 04:00 @ 17.952023-03-20 16:00 @ 16.752d 12h−$207.94-6.86%stop loss
40long2023-04-05 04:00 @ 18.112023-04-07 12:00 @ 17.472d 8h−$109.04-3.66%stop loss
41long2023-04-11 12:00 @ 18.412023-04-12 00:00 @ 17.8912h−$88.05-2.98%stop loss
42long2023-04-14 04:00 @ 19.222023-04-14 12:00 @ 18.578h−$102.88-3.51%stop loss
43long2023-04-15 12:00 @ 19.462023-04-19 08:00 @ 18.783d 20h−$113.59-3.91%stop loss
44short2023-04-21 16:00 @ 17.752023-04-26 00:00 @ 17.624d 8h$17.24+0.60%signal
45short2023-05-08 04:00 @ 15.972023-05-15 08:00 @ 15.277d 4h$124.69+4.33%signal
46short2023-05-21 16:00 @ 14.342023-05-22 16:00 @ 14.711d−$77.31-2.65%stop loss
47short2023-06-10 04:00 @ 13.062023-06-20 20:00 @ 11.8910d 16h$242.24+8.37%signal
48long2023-06-21 00:00 @ 12.122023-06-28 08:00 @ 12.687d 8h$127.55+4.32%signal
49long2023-07-09 04:00 @ 14.062023-07-10 00:00 @ 13.4320h−$138.46-4.64%stop loss
50long2023-07-14 04:00 @ 14.772023-07-14 16:00 @ 14.0712h−$144.25-4.89%stop loss
51short2023-07-23 00:00 @ 13.512023-08-07 04:00 @ 12.7115d 4h$174.54+5.99%signal
52short2023-08-15 20:00 @ 11.702023-08-28 16:00 @ 10.3312d 20h$332.19+11.23%signal
53short2023-09-10 08:00 @ 9.542023-09-27 12:00 @ 9.1317d 4h$122.67+4.03%signal
54long2023-10-01 08:00 @ 9.452023-10-02 20:00 @ 9.191d 12h−$88.22-2.87%stop loss
55long2023-10-04 20:00 @ 10.012023-10-09 08:00 @ 9.884d 12h−$45.04-1.48%signal
56short2023-10-12 12:00 @ 9.042023-10-16 04:00 @ 9.383d 16h−$115.41-3.80%signal
57short2023-10-19 04:00 @ 8.802023-10-20 00:00 @ 9.1220h−$111.73-3.71%stop loss
58long2023-10-22 08:00 @ 9.872023-11-22 00:00 @ 19.0230d 16h$2,706.92+90.78%signal
59long2023-12-01 04:00 @ 22.382023-12-04 08:00 @ 21.183d 4h−$205.19-5.61%stop loss
60long2023-12-05 20:00 @ 23.572023-12-18 12:00 @ 38.1712d 16h$2,194.53+60.83%signal
61long2023-12-22 04:00 @ 47.802023-12-22 08:00 @ 43.844h−$349.75-8.42%stop loss
62short2024-01-03 16:00 @ 37.092024-01-09 08:00 @ 37.035d 16h$9.39+0.23%signal
63short2024-01-18 20:00 @ 32.972024-01-26 12:00 @ 32.267d 16h$93.10+2.29%signal
64long2024-01-28 04:00 @ 35.862024-01-31 20:00 @ 33.803d 16h−$243.01-5.94%stop loss
65long2024-02-09 20:00 @ 38.102024-02-17 16:00 @ 39.117d 20h$86.72+2.15%signal
66short2024-02-20 16:00 @ 37.722024-02-26 16:00 @ 38.316d−$50.75-1.25%signal
67long2024-02-29 12:00 @ 43.022024-02-29 20:00 @ 40.358h−$257.65-6.37%stop loss
68long2024-03-11 12:00 @ 46.252024-04-01 08:00 @ 52.2420d 20h$405.19+10.19%signal
69short2024-04-02 04:00 @ 47.952024-04-08 00:00 @ 49.365d 20h−$116.24-2.85%signal
70short2024-04-12 20:00 @ 38.482024-04-20 16:00 @ 36.607d 20h$197.76+4.88%signal
71short2024-04-30 16:00 @ 32.792024-05-03 12:00 @ 34.882d 20h−$265.14-6.47%stop loss
72long2024-05-04 20:00 @ 37.322024-05-07 20:00 @ 35.363d−$217.78-5.40%stop loss
73short2024-05-13 04:00 @ 32.302024-05-15 12:00 @ 33.922d 8h−$202.71-5.09%stop loss
74long2024-05-17 08:00 @ 37.282024-05-19 16:00 @ 35.482d 8h−$196.29-5.00%stop loss
75long2024-05-20 20:00 @ 38.672024-05-23 20:00 @ 36.783d−$197.45-5.09%stop loss
76short2024-05-30 08:00 @ 35.572024-06-05 04:00 @ 36.345d 20h−$77.74-2.03%signal
77short2024-06-07 20:00 @ 33.422024-06-12 16:00 @ 33.514d 20h−$8.15-0.21%signal
78short2024-06-14 20:00 @ 29.372024-06-26 08:00 @ 26.0211d 12h$436.78+11.47%signal
79long2024-07-01 00:00 @ 29.362024-07-03 00:00 @ 27.962d−$193.23-4.93%stop loss
80short2024-07-05 00:00 @ 24.432024-07-06 12:00 @ 26.061d 12h−$262.93-6.80%stop loss
81long2024-07-16 00:00 @ 27.822024-07-16 08:00 @ 26.528h−$182.36-4.79%stop loss
82long2024-07-16 16:00 @ 28.452024-07-18 12:00 @ 26.921d 20h−$206.38-5.49%stop loss
83long2024-07-21 16:00 @ 30.982024-07-24 00:00 @ 29.392d 8h−$195.15-5.27%stop loss
84short2024-08-01 00:00 @ 25.692024-08-08 16:00 @ 21.947d 16h$518.25+14.17%signal
85long2024-08-20 20:00 @ 22.562024-08-27 12:00 @ 25.746d 16h$532.06+14.05%signal
86short2024-08-30 16:00 @ 22.362024-09-08 04:00 @ 22.378d 12h−$12.84-0.33%signal
87long2024-09-09 08:00 @ 23.692024-09-18 16:00 @ 22.909d 8h−$130.20-3.32%signal
88long2024-09-19 12:00 @ 26.242024-10-01 00:00 @ 27.6911d 12h$201.62+5.19%signal
89short2024-10-01 20:00 @ 25.902024-10-06 16:00 @ 26.924d 20h−$167.48-4.26%signal
90long2024-10-12 04:00 @ 28.312024-10-15 16:00 @ 28.093d 12h−$37.26-0.96%signal
91short2024-10-23 12:00 @ 26.612024-10-29 04:00 @ 26.805d 16h−$35.39-0.91%signal
92short2024-11-03 04:00 @ 23.562024-11-06 00:00 @ 24.592d 20h−$174.13-4.49%stop loss
93long2024-11-07 04:00 @ 27.712024-11-15 00:00 @ 31.207d 20h$462.81+12.08%signal
94long2024-11-22 12:00 @ 38.142024-12-09 12:00 @ 49.2517d$1,086.58+27.53%signal
95short2024-12-19 20:00 @ 38.622025-01-02 00:00 @ 37.7813d 4h$96.86+2.30%signal
96long2025-01-03 16:00 @ 41.912025-01-07 16:00 @ 40.864d−$116.34-2.74%signal
97short2025-01-13 04:00 @ 35.332025-01-15 12:00 @ 37.452d 8h−$256.80-6.09%stop loss
98long2025-01-17 08:00 @ 41.342025-01-18 04:00 @ 39.1420h−$226.20-5.45%stop loss
99short2025-01-27 08:00 @ 33.802025-01-31 16:00 @ 35.954d 8h−$263.23-6.43%signal
100short2025-02-02 04:00 @ 30.782025-02-11 04:00 @ 26.299d$581.07+14.43%signal
101short2025-02-18 16:00 @ 23.422025-02-20 12:00 @ 24.831d 20h−$258.38-6.19%stop loss
102short2025-02-25 00:00 @ 21.862025-03-02 16:00 @ 23.425d 16h−$297.05-7.23%stop loss
103short2025-03-04 04:00 @ 19.812025-03-05 20:00 @ 21.751d 16h−$404.00-10.02%stop loss
104short2025-03-09 20:00 @ 18.232025-03-16 00:00 @ 19.396d 4h−$257.94-6.56%signal
105long2025-03-19 16:00 @ 19.852025-03-20 16:00 @ 18.641d−$239.67-6.20%stop loss
106long2025-03-24 04:00 @ 21.142025-03-28 08:00 @ 20.704d 4h−$84.95-2.23%signal
107short2025-03-31 04:00 @ 18.622025-04-01 08:00 @ 19.661d 4h−$217.57-5.75%stop loss
108short2025-04-03 00:00 @ 17.972025-04-09 20:00 @ 18.536d 20h−$130.82-3.50%signal
109long2025-04-12 16:00 @ 20.512025-04-15 20:00 @ 19.163d 4h−$241.59-6.53%stop loss
110long2025-04-22 16:00 @ 21.632025-04-30 12:00 @ 20.517d 20h−$194.46-5.34%stop loss
111short2025-05-04 04:00 @ 20.222025-05-08 04:00 @ 20.344d−$27.60-0.77%signal
112long2025-05-09 08:00 @ 23.022025-05-17 20:00 @ 22.168d 12h−$145.07-4.05%signal
113short2025-05-30 04:00 @ 21.812025-06-08 20:00 @ 21.349d 16h$69.60+1.96%signal
114long2025-06-10 00:00 @ 21.942025-06-12 08:00 @ 20.912d 8h−$174.78-4.90%stop loss
115short2025-06-19 04:00 @ 18.042025-06-30 00:00 @ 18.7310d 20h−$138.43-3.93%signal
116long2025-07-03 08:00 @ 19.092025-07-04 04:00 @ 18.3120h−$147.01-4.22%stop loss
117long2025-07-10 00:00 @ 19.502025-07-23 16:00 @ 24.3513d 16h$836.95+24.26%signal
118long2025-07-28 08:00 @ 26.562025-07-28 20:00 @ 25.1912h−$192.76-5.27%stop loss
119short2025-08-02 20:00 @ 20.872025-08-04 12:00 @ 22.201d 16h−$233.51-6.47%stop loss
120long2025-08-09 08:00 @ 24.422025-08-10 08:00 @ 23.351d−$160.81-4.53%stop loss
121long2025-08-13 04:00 @ 24.992025-08-14 12:00 @ 23.751d 8h−$178.82-5.09%stop loss
122short2025-08-19 20:00 @ 22.492025-08-22 12:00 @ 23.812d 16h−$204.72-5.90%stop loss
123long2025-09-09 08:00 @ 25.912025-09-22 04:00 @ 31.7812d 20h$760.20+22.25%signal
124short2025-10-08 00:00 @ 27.912025-10-08 16:00 @ 29.2116h−$172.75-4.79%stop loss
125short2025-10-10 16:00 @ 26.972025-10-26 12:00 @ 20.3615d 20h$861.01+24.16%signal
126short2025-10-30 16:00 @ 18.212025-11-07 20:00 @ 17.828d 4h$70.05+1.85%signal
127short2025-11-17 20:00 @ 14.362025-11-24 20:00 @ 13.917d$109.00+2.87%signal
128long2025-11-27 20:00 @ 15.022025-11-29 16:00 @ 14.511d 20h−$129.27-3.38%stop loss
129short2025-12-01 04:00 @ 12.952025-12-02 12:00 @ 13.511d 8h−$172.75-4.56%stop loss
130short2025-12-15 16:00 @ 12.482025-12-28 00:00 @ 12.6912d 8h−$71.66-1.91%signal
131long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 13.092025-12-29 12:00 @ 12.638h−$133.11-3.57%stop loss
132long2026-01-01 20:00 @ 13.552026-01-16 16:00 @ 13.4014d 20h−$49.76-1.35%signal
133short2026-01-19 00:00 @ 12.972026-01-28 12:00 @ 12.239d 12h$199.93+5.43%signal
134short2026-01-29 16:00 @ 10.992026-02-13 16:00 @ 9.1015d$624.87+16.73%signal
135long2026-02-14 20:00 @ 9.632026-02-15 16:00 @ 9.2120h−$174.29-4.48%stop loss
136short2026-02-23 04:00 @ 8.412026-02-25 08:00 @ 8.782d 4h−$175.97-4.57%stop loss
137long2026-02-25 16:00 @ 9.532026-02-27 08:00 @ 9.071d 16h−$190.05-5.00%stop loss
138short2026-03-22 00:00 @ 9.212026-03-23 08:00 @ 9.581d 8h−$157.49-4.19%stop loss
139short2026-03-27 12:00 @ 8.752026-04-01 04:00 @ 9.124d 16h−$161.52-4.35%stop loss
140long2026-04-16 20:00 @ 9.852026-04-18 08:00 @ 9.421d 12h−$165.02-4.49%stop loss
141short2026-04-29 20:00 @ 9.052026-05-04 04:00 @ 9.294d 8h−$103.13-2.84%signal
142long2026-05-06 04:00 @ 9.572026-05-12 16:00 @ 9.736d 12h$53.16+1.47%signal
143short2026-05-16 08:00 @ 9.332026-05-21 08:00 @ 9.475d−$53.75-1.48%signal
144short2026-05-23 08:00 @ 8.912026-05-23 16:00 @ 9.258h−$138.15-3.83%stop loss
145short2026-06-02 16:00 @ 8.362026-06-13 16:00 @ 6.7511d$682.28+19.09%signal
146long2026-06-15 16:00 @ 7.032026-06-16 12:00 @ 6.7220h−$166.14-4.44%stop loss
147short2026-06-18 16:00 @ 6.242026-06-24 00:00 @ 6.485d 8h−$151.31-4.09%signal
148long2026-06-29 20:00 @ 6.722026-07-08 00:00 @ 6.368d 4h−$202.86-5.53%stop loss
149short2026-07-23 20:00 @ 6.282026-07-25 12:00 @ 6.501d 16h−$132.02-3.65%stop loss
150long2026-07-25 20:00 @ 6.712026-07-27 12:00 @ 6.481d 16h−$127.96-3.57%stop loss
151short2026-08-01 20:00 @ 6.122026-08-02 04:00 @ 6.358h−$136.50-3.85%stop loss
152long2026-08-04 04:00 @ 6.872026-08-05 00:00 @ 6.6020h−$142.29-4.05%stop loss
153short2026-08-11 16:00 @ 6.212026-08-12 12:00 @ 6.4320h−$130.55-3.75%stop loss
154long2026-08-15 04:00 @ 6.772026-08-15 16:00 @ 6.5212h−$130.40-3.78%stop loss
155long2026-08-20 12:00 @ 6.892026-08-31 00:00 @ 7.1110d 12h$94.56+2.77%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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