[Famous-Q] Turtle System 2 (55/20)

public
@djgambhir

XRPUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,195 bars in 8.3ms

Underperformed the market. Holding XRPUSDT returned +64.83% over the same period, against this strategy’s +22.62%.

Net P&L
+22.62%
$2,261.97
Max drawdown
-31.59%
Max run-up
+102.98%
Trades
143
26.6% win rate
Profit factor
1.18
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -31.59%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-16.26%-28.67%8025%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+44.25%-31.39%3324%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01+1.51%-12.76%3033%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.33
Sortino
0.51
Calmar
0.14
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.72
CAGR
+4.47%
Exposure
43.6%

Per trade

Expectancy
$15.82 · +1.15%
Average win / loss
$396.88 / −$122.09
Payoff ratio
3.25
Largest win / loss
$6,041.22 / −$463.40
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
14 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-31.59%
Longest time under water
888 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered
Under water at the end
637 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$388.27
Funding
−$379.24
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
58
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+64.83%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 143 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-44.72%+18.41%+289.06%
Max drawdown-49.62%-30.94%-16.99%

39% of histories lost money, and 48% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -31.59%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh55 length
55
ll55 length
55
hh20 length
20
ll20 length
20
atr20 length
20
Stop loss (× atr20)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

XRPUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

143 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1short2022-01-05 20:00 @ 0.802022-01-12 00:00 @ 0.776d 4h$87.27+3.49%signal
2short2022-01-21 00:00 @ 0.722022-02-01 04:00 @ 0.6311d 4h$326.18+12.93%signal
3long2022-02-05 04:00 @ 0.672022-02-11 20:00 @ 0.796d 16h$461.06+17.71%signal
4short2022-02-22 00:00 @ 0.702022-02-25 20:00 @ 0.763d 20h−$249.05-9.16%stop loss
5long2022-03-12 00:00 @ 0.802022-03-13 20:00 @ 0.761d 20h−$157.47-5.93%stop loss
6long2022-03-21 20:00 @ 0.852022-03-31 12:00 @ 0.829d 16h−$107.51-4.11%stop loss
7short2022-04-11 04:00 @ 0.742022-04-15 00:00 @ 0.773d 20h−$102.41-3.95%stop loss
8short2022-04-24 00:00 @ 0.712022-05-04 20:00 @ 0.6410d 20h$242.28+9.45%signal
9short2022-05-09 08:00 @ 0.552022-05-31 00:00 @ 0.4221d 16h$620.05+23.62%signal
10short2022-06-10 20:00 @ 0.382022-06-24 04:00 @ 0.3713d 8h$92.40+3.32%signal
11short2022-06-30 08:00 @ 0.322022-07-05 00:00 @ 0.334d 16h−$98.17-3.50%signal
12long2022-07-08 04:00 @ 0.352022-07-08 08:00 @ 0.344h−$123.05-4.43%stop loss
13long2022-07-18 08:00 @ 0.362022-07-25 00:00 @ 0.356d 16h−$145.78-5.31%stop loss
14short2022-07-26 00:00 @ 0.342022-07-27 16:00 @ 0.351d 16h−$145.71-5.37%stop loss
15long2022-07-30 16:00 @ 0.402022-07-31 20:00 @ 0.381d 4h−$147.07-5.50%stop loss
16short2022-08-19 08:00 @ 0.342022-08-24 20:00 @ 0.355d 12h−$44.28-1.68%signal
17short2022-08-29 00:00 @ 0.322022-09-06 00:00 @ 0.348d−$121.30-4.62%stop loss
18long2022-09-09 04:00 @ 0.342022-09-13 16:00 @ 0.344d 12h−$47.35-1.82%signal
19long2022-09-17 16:00 @ 0.372022-09-19 00:00 @ 0.351d 8h−$125.98-4.87%stop loss
20long2022-09-20 16:00 @ 0.422022-09-21 16:00 @ 0.391d−$199.71-7.82%stop loss
21long2022-09-22 20:00 @ 0.482022-09-27 16:00 @ 0.444d 20h−$218.28-8.72%stop loss
22long2022-10-07 20:00 @ 0.522022-10-11 00:00 @ 0.493d 4h−$143.19-5.85%stop loss
23short2022-10-20 20:00 @ 0.442022-10-22 00:00 @ 0.461d 4h−$138.16-5.73%stop loss
24long2022-11-04 12:00 @ 0.492022-11-06 20:00 @ 0.472d 8h−$106.21-4.47%stop loss
25short2022-11-08 04:00 @ 0.442022-11-15 16:00 @ 0.397d 12h$248.86+10.58%signal
26long2022-11-24 20:00 @ 0.402022-11-28 00:00 @ 0.383d 4h−$121.78-5.04%stop loss
27short2022-12-16 12:00 @ 0.362022-12-26 16:00 @ 0.3610d 4h$47.45+1.99%signal
28long2022-12-26 20:00 @ 0.372022-12-28 04:00 @ 0.361d 8h−$61.26-2.56%stop loss
29short2023-01-02 04:00 @ 0.332023-01-02 08:00 @ 0.344h−$102.02-4.29%stop loss
30long2023-01-11 08:00 @ 0.362023-01-30 12:00 @ 0.4019d 4h$213.61+9.07%signal
31short2023-02-13 12:00 @ 0.372023-02-14 16:00 @ 0.381d 4h−$89.50-3.72%stop loss
32short2023-03-03 04:00 @ 0.362023-03-03 20:00 @ 0.3816h−$86.19-3.61%stop loss
33long2023-03-08 12:00 @ 0.392023-03-09 20:00 @ 0.371d 8h−$89.26-3.78%stop loss
34short2023-03-12 16:00 @ 0.352023-03-12 20:00 @ 0.374h−$108.84-4.65%stop loss
35long2023-03-19 12:00 @ 0.392023-03-20 16:00 @ 0.371d 4h−$112.77-4.87%stop loss
36long2023-03-21 16:00 @ 0.432023-04-01 08:00 @ 0.5110d 16h$419.47+18.34%signal
37short2023-04-19 12:00 @ 0.502023-05-05 20:00 @ 0.4716d 8h$142.04+5.94%signal
38short2023-05-08 00:00 @ 0.452023-05-17 00:00 @ 0.449d$28.49+1.17%signal
39long2023-05-17 04:00 @ 0.462023-05-17 08:00 @ 0.444h−$87.25-3.58%stop loss
40long2023-05-18 12:00 @ 0.472023-05-24 12:00 @ 0.456d−$100.70-4.17%stop loss
41long2023-05-29 00:00 @ 0.482023-06-05 16:00 @ 0.507d 16h$99.02+4.15%signal
42long2023-06-13 12:00 @ 0.562023-06-13 12:00 @ 0.530m−$132.84-5.51%stop loss
43short2023-06-28 20:00 @ 0.462023-06-30 00:00 @ 0.481d 4h−$103.56-4.35%stop loss
44long2023-07-13 16:00 @ 0.592023-07-22 20:00 @ 0.759d 4h$605.59+25.74%signal
45short2023-07-24 12:00 @ 0.692023-08-09 16:00 @ 0.6516d 4h$145.23+5.80%signal
46short2023-08-18 00:00 @ 0.512023-08-20 08:00 @ 0.552d 8h−$204.98-8.07%stop loss
47short2023-09-01 20:00 @ 0.492023-09-03 16:00 @ 0.511d 20h−$95.43-3.83%stop loss
48short2023-09-11 08:00 @ 0.492023-09-14 20:00 @ 0.493d 12h−$42.81-1.74%signal
49long2023-09-20 04:00 @ 0.522023-09-20 08:00 @ 0.514h−$75.86-3.09%stop loss
50long2023-09-29 16:00 @ 0.532023-09-29 20:00 @ 0.524h−$73.28-3.01%stop loss
51long2023-10-20 00:00 @ 0.522023-11-14 20:00 @ 0.6225d 20h$445.40+18.42%signal
52short2023-11-22 00:00 @ 0.582023-11-22 16:00 @ 0.6116h−$134.82-5.33%stop loss
53long2023-11-26 12:00 @ 0.632023-11-26 16:00 @ 0.614h−$81.25-3.26%stop loss
54long2023-12-07 08:00 @ 0.652023-12-07 08:00 @ 0.620m−$104.75-4.23%stop loss
55long2023-12-08 16:00 @ 0.662023-12-11 00:00 @ 0.632d 8h−$102.64-4.19%stop loss
56long2023-12-25 12:00 @ 0.642023-12-26 04:00 @ 0.6216h−$83.78-3.46%stop loss
57short2024-01-03 16:00 @ 0.582024-01-10 20:00 @ 0.617d 4h−$134.05-5.58%stop loss
58short2024-01-19 16:00 @ 0.542024-01-26 20:00 @ 0.537d 4h$31.28+1.32%signal
59long2024-02-11 08:00 @ 0.532024-02-12 04:00 @ 0.5220h−$58.36-2.46%stop loss
60long2024-02-14 20:00 @ 0.542024-02-28 16:00 @ 0.5213d 20h−$96.70-4.09%stop loss
61long2024-02-29 20:00 @ 0.612024-03-05 16:00 @ 0.574d 20h−$167.24-7.15%stop loss
62long2024-03-11 16:00 @ 0.692024-03-14 16:00 @ 0.653d−$163.60-7.13%stop loss
63short2024-04-12 20:00 @ 0.542024-04-20 04:00 @ 0.517d 8h$104.57+4.64%signal
64long2024-04-22 20:00 @ 0.552024-04-24 12:00 @ 0.521d 16h−$111.77-4.90%stop loss
65short2024-04-30 12:00 @ 0.502024-05-01 16:00 @ 0.521d 4h−$92.17-4.09%stop loss
66long2024-05-06 16:00 @ 0.562024-05-07 00:00 @ 0.548h−$87.05-3.90%stop loss
67short2024-05-13 04:00 @ 0.492024-05-13 08:00 @ 0.514h−$72.48-3.28%stop loss
68long2024-05-20 20:00 @ 0.532024-05-23 12:00 @ 0.522d 16h−$60.65-2.77%stop loss
69short2024-06-07 20:00 @ 0.492024-06-17 12:00 @ 0.519d 16h−$75.52-3.47%stop loss
70long2024-06-17 16:00 @ 0.512024-06-18 00:00 @ 0.498h−$85.92-3.98%stop loss
71short2024-07-04 04:00 @ 0.462024-07-11 08:00 @ 0.447d 4h$67.78+3.18%signal
72long2024-07-13 04:00 @ 0.492024-08-01 16:00 @ 0.5919d 12h$392.76+18.25%signal
73short2024-08-03 20:00 @ 0.542024-08-07 20:00 @ 0.584d−$152.59-6.78%stop loss
74long2024-08-19 20:00 @ 0.602024-08-26 16:00 @ 0.586d 20h−$85.97-3.89%stop loss
75short2024-08-30 16:00 @ 0.552024-08-31 08:00 @ 0.5716h−$93.66-4.28%stop loss
76short2024-09-06 16:00 @ 0.532024-09-12 12:00 @ 0.555d 20h−$84.63-3.91%stop loss
77long2024-09-15 00:00 @ 0.602024-09-15 20:00 @ 0.5820h−$67.63-3.15%stop loss
78long2024-09-28 12:00 @ 0.622024-10-01 12:00 @ 0.603d−$70.52-3.31%stop loss
79short2024-10-03 00:00 @ 0.542024-10-07 04:00 @ 0.544d 4h−$11.35-0.54%signal
80long2024-10-14 16:00 @ 0.552024-10-15 08:00 @ 0.5316h−$58.25-2.76%stop loss
81short2024-10-23 08:00 @ 0.532024-11-06 04:00 @ 0.5313d 20h−$24.84-1.19%signal
82long2024-11-07 04:00 @ 0.562024-12-10 00:00 @ 2.2132d 20h$6,041.22+289.41%signal
83long2024-12-17 12:00 @ 2.692024-12-18 04:00 @ 2.5016h−$260.45-7.24%stop loss
84short2024-12-20 12:00 @ 1.972024-12-20 12:00 @ 2.220m−$463.40-13.12%stop loss
85short2024-12-30 00:00 @ 2.092025-01-01 12:00 @ 2.202d 12h−$175.31-5.13%stop loss
86long2025-01-02 04:00 @ 2.422025-01-07 12:00 @ 2.295d 8h−$194.10-5.75%stop loss
87long2025-01-11 20:00 @ 2.532025-01-13 08:00 @ 2.391d 12h−$182.13-5.48%stop loss
88long2025-01-14 20:00 @ 2.662025-01-20 00:00 @ 2.955d 4h$350.33+10.68%signal
89short2025-01-27 08:00 @ 2.812025-01-27 12:00 @ 2.994h−$222.93-6.62%stop loss
90short2025-02-03 04:00 @ 2.262025-02-03 12:00 @ 2.568h−$441.07-13.32%stop loss
91long2025-02-14 12:00 @ 2.732025-02-18 04:00 @ 2.573d 16h−$190.97-5.97%stop loss
92short2025-02-24 16:00 @ 2.432025-03-02 08:00 @ 2.275d 16h$200.15+6.35%signal
93long2025-03-02 20:00 @ 2.872025-03-03 04:00 @ 2.648h−$255.59-7.98%stop loss
94long2025-03-19 16:00 @ 2.552025-03-20 16:00 @ 2.411d−$174.45-5.56%stop loss
95short2025-03-28 08:00 @ 2.222025-04-12 16:00 @ 2.1515d 8h$82.26+2.66%signal
96long2025-04-13 12:00 @ 2.202025-04-16 04:00 @ 2.062d 16h−$197.44-6.34%stop loss
97long2025-04-23 00:00 @ 2.212025-04-24 08:00 @ 2.131d 8h−$120.23-3.92%stop loss
98long2025-04-28 08:00 @ 2.332025-04-29 20:00 @ 2.241d 12h−$123.48-4.07%stop loss
99short2025-05-05 16:00 @ 2.112025-05-08 04:00 @ 2.192d 12h−$111.16-3.70%stop loss
100long2025-05-09 00:00 @ 2.332025-05-16 00:00 @ 2.387d$63.80+2.14%signal
101short2025-05-28 16:00 @ 2.252025-06-03 16:00 @ 2.266d−$16.65-0.56%signal
102long2025-06-09 20:00 @ 2.302025-06-12 08:00 @ 2.232d 12h−$95.82-3.21%stop loss
103short2025-06-21 20:00 @ 2.072025-06-23 20:00 @ 2.142d−$110.73-3.73%stop loss
104long2025-06-30 20:00 @ 2.322025-06-30 20:00 @ 2.240m−$103.57-3.53%stop loss
105long2025-07-07 16:00 @ 2.342025-07-07 20:00 @ 2.274h−$91.85-3.15%stop loss
106long2025-07-09 12:00 @ 2.382025-07-23 16:00 @ 3.3214d 4h$1,118.40+38.71%signal
107short2025-08-02 16:00 @ 2.832025-08-04 00:00 @ 2.991d 8h−$189.08-5.97%stop loss
108long2025-08-08 00:00 @ 3.322025-08-10 04:00 @ 3.162d 4h−$152.05-4.87%stop loss
109short2025-08-18 08:00 @ 2.962025-08-18 16:00 @ 3.088h−$125.89-4.08%stop loss
110short2025-08-19 16:00 @ 2.932025-08-22 16:00 @ 3.053d−$132.91-4.36%stop loss
111short2025-09-01 04:00 @ 2.742025-09-02 12:00 @ 2.841d 8h−$111.46-3.69%stop loss
112long2025-09-08 12:00 @ 2.942025-09-15 12:00 @ 3.007d$54.07+1.81%signal
113short2025-09-22 04:00 @ 2.902025-09-29 00:00 @ 2.876d 20h$36.71+1.22%signal
114long2025-10-02 20:00 @ 3.092025-10-04 08:00 @ 2.991d 12h−$99.92-3.32%stop loss
115short2025-10-10 16:00 @ 2.742025-10-20 04:00 @ 2.439d 12h$330.86+11.07%signal
116long2025-10-25 16:00 @ 2.602025-10-30 04:00 @ 2.504d 12h−$124.15-4.04%stop loss
117short2025-11-03 16:00 @ 2.332025-11-10 00:00 @ 2.446d 8h−$147.68-4.86%stop loss
118short2025-11-17 20:00 @ 2.132025-11-24 20:00 @ 2.237d−$156.45-5.21%signal
119short2025-12-15 16:00 @ 1.922025-12-29 04:00 @ 1.9113d 12h$9.83+0.33%signal
120long2026-01-02 16:00 @ 1.922026-01-16 16:00 @ 2.0314d$166.98+5.63%signal
121short2026-01-19 00:00 @ 1.992026-02-14 12:00 @ 1.4726d 12h$775.90+25.79%signal
122long2026-02-15 08:00 @ 1.652026-02-15 08:00 @ 1.560m−$173.81-5.43%stop loss
123short2026-02-23 04:00 @ 1.342026-02-23 08:00 @ 1.404h−$140.17-4.44%stop loss
124short2026-02-24 08:00 @ 1.332026-02-25 00:00 @ 1.3816h−$142.62-4.57%stop loss
125short2026-02-28 08:00 @ 1.302026-02-28 20:00 @ 1.3712h−$162.01-5.25%stop loss
126long2026-03-16 04:00 @ 1.472026-03-19 16:00 @ 1.433d 12h−$79.05-2.59%signal
127short2026-03-26 16:00 @ 1.362026-04-06 04:00 @ 1.3410d 12h$39.88+1.32%signal
128long2026-04-08 00:00 @ 1.382026-04-09 00:00 @ 1.341d−$99.22-3.27%stop loss
129long2026-04-15 20:00 @ 1.402026-04-27 08:00 @ 1.4111d 12h$24.31+0.81%signal
130short2026-04-27 16:00 @ 1.392026-05-04 04:00 @ 1.416d 12h−$59.23-1.96%signal
131long2026-05-06 12:00 @ 1.452026-05-06 12:00 @ 1.420m−$73.82-2.46%stop loss
132long2026-05-10 20:00 @ 1.492026-05-10 20:00 @ 1.450m−$81.59-2.73%stop loss
133long2026-05-14 20:00 @ 1.522026-05-15 04:00 @ 1.478h−$102.64-3.46%stop loss
134short2026-05-19 20:00 @ 1.362026-05-30 04:00 @ 1.3510d 8h$9.35+0.32%signal
135short2026-06-02 16:00 @ 1.222026-06-15 00:00 @ 1.1912d 8h$77.87+2.65%signal
136long2026-06-15 12:00 @ 1.232026-06-17 16:00 @ 1.192d 4h−$112.57-3.80%stop loss
137short2026-06-23 08:00 @ 1.112026-07-02 12:00 @ 1.089d 4h$67.15+2.29%signal
138long2026-07-03 16:00 @ 1.122026-07-08 04:00 @ 1.094d 12h−$69.27-2.35%signal
139long2026-07-21 08:00 @ 1.142026-07-23 12:00 @ 1.112d 4h−$71.44-2.44%stop loss
140short2026-07-28 00:00 @ 1.072026-07-29 04:00 @ 1.091d 4h−$71.79-2.46%stop loss
141short2026-08-06 04:00 @ 1.042026-08-19 12:00 @ 1.0713d 8h−$66.65-2.30%stop loss
142long2026-08-19 16:00 @ 1.072026-08-26 16:00 @ 1.377d$811.45+28.17%signal
143short2026-08-31 00:00 @ 1.362026-09-01 00:00 @ 1.391d−$71.33-2.31%end of data

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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