[Famous-Q] Faber 200-bar SMA timing

public
@djgambhir

DOTUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 4.5ms

Net P&L
-6.00%
−$599.70
Max drawdown
-31.61%
Max run-up
+49.48%
Trades
149
10.1% win rate
Profit factor
0.92
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -31.61%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-2.46%-21.67%889%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+10.93%-20.36%2811%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-13.12%-15.52%3312%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.01
Sortino
-0.01
Calmar
-0.04
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.19
CAGR
-1.32%
Exposure
33.0%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$4.02 · -0.03%
Average win / loss
$437.99 / −$53.50
Payoff ratio
8.19
Largest win / loss
$2,248.00 / −$221.29
Longest losing streak(winning: 1)
37 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-31.61%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
635 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$378.31
Funding
−$456.85
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
202
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-96.84%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 149 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-40.50%-8.42%+62.68%
Max drawdown-43.19%-27.41%-15.87%

61% of histories lost money, and 34% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -31.61%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

sma200 length
200
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

DOTUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

149 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1long2022-01-02 12:00 @ 28.892022-01-06 00:00 @ 26.683d 12h−$194.61-7.78%signal
2long2022-01-12 16:00 @ 27.112022-01-13 04:00 @ 26.5812h−$49.96-2.04%signal
3long2022-01-14 04:00 @ 27.292022-01-14 08:00 @ 26.934h−$34.23-1.40%signal
4long2022-01-14 16:00 @ 27.232022-01-17 04:00 @ 26.492d 12h−$66.89-2.75%signal
5long2022-02-07 12:00 @ 22.402022-02-08 12:00 @ 21.721d−$74.23-3.08%signal
6long2022-02-09 20:00 @ 22.092022-02-10 00:00 @ 21.924h−$20.69-0.86%signal
7long2022-02-10 12:00 @ 22.242022-02-10 16:00 @ 21.704h−$60.14-2.52%signal
8long2022-03-01 00:00 @ 18.922022-03-01 04:00 @ 18.654h−$35.82-1.51%signal
9long2022-03-02 00:00 @ 18.892022-03-02 08:00 @ 18.738h−$23.11-0.98%signal
10long2022-03-02 12:00 @ 18.942022-03-02 16:00 @ 18.644h−$39.54-1.68%signal
11long2022-03-12 08:00 @ 18.292022-03-12 12:00 @ 18.184h−$16.16-0.69%signal
12long2022-03-12 16:00 @ 18.282022-03-13 00:00 @ 18.138h−$20.95-0.89%signal
13long2022-03-13 04:00 @ 18.202022-03-13 08:00 @ 18.124h−$12.15-0.52%signal
14long2022-03-15 20:00 @ 17.942022-03-16 00:00 @ 17.794h−$22.54-0.96%signal
15long2022-03-16 04:00 @ 17.962022-04-08 20:00 @ 19.8423d 16h$253.09+10.85%signal
16long2022-04-10 20:00 @ 20.102022-04-11 00:00 @ 19.214h−$107.93-4.51%signal
17long2022-07-17 08:00 @ 7.212022-07-17 12:00 @ 7.134h−$26.74-1.13%signal
18long2022-07-18 04:00 @ 7.192022-07-23 12:00 @ 7.165d 8h−$6.00-0.25%signal
19long2022-07-23 16:00 @ 7.252022-07-23 20:00 @ 7.204h−$17.65-0.75%signal
20long2022-07-24 00:00 @ 7.322022-07-25 04:00 @ 7.051d 4h−$88.08-3.74%signal
21long2022-07-27 20:00 @ 7.242022-08-19 00:00 @ 8.0722d 4h$289.35+12.40%signal
22long2022-09-12 12:00 @ 7.922022-09-12 16:00 @ 7.714h−$65.95-2.74%signal
23long2022-09-13 12:00 @ 7.882022-09-13 16:00 @ 7.224h−$201.51-8.43%signal
24long2022-10-25 20:00 @ 6.542022-11-03 00:00 @ 6.258d 4h−$107.03-4.58%signal
25long2022-11-03 04:00 @ 6.432022-11-08 20:00 @ 6.195d 16h−$88.18-3.81%signal
26long2023-01-08 16:00 @ 4.752023-01-08 20:00 @ 4.734h−$14.04-0.61%signal
27long2023-01-09 00:00 @ 4.832023-02-13 00:00 @ 6.1735d$624.81+27.32%signal
28long2023-02-15 20:00 @ 6.422023-02-17 00:00 @ 6.321d 4h−$39.93-1.63%signal
29long2023-02-17 04:00 @ 6.572023-02-25 00:00 @ 6.617d 20h$5.59+0.23%signal
30long2023-02-26 20:00 @ 6.692023-02-27 08:00 @ 6.6112h−$32.97-1.35%signal
31long2023-02-27 16:00 @ 6.692023-02-27 20:00 @ 6.524h−$63.85-2.63%signal
32long2023-03-14 16:00 @ 6.512023-03-14 20:00 @ 6.344h−$64.65-2.68%signal
33long2023-03-17 12:00 @ 6.532023-03-19 00:00 @ 6.311d 12h−$84.90-3.55%signal
34long2023-03-19 04:00 @ 6.472023-03-20 04:00 @ 6.281d−$72.20-3.04%signal
35long2023-03-20 08:00 @ 6.432023-03-20 16:00 @ 6.338h−$36.84-1.56%signal
36long2023-03-23 16:00 @ 6.382023-03-23 20:00 @ 6.324h−$24.83-1.06%signal
37long2023-03-29 08:00 @ 6.222023-03-30 20:00 @ 6.081d 12h−$58.51-2.50%signal
38long2023-03-31 00:00 @ 6.122023-04-20 00:00 @ 6.3020d$56.58+2.43%signal
39long2023-04-20 04:00 @ 6.402023-04-20 16:00 @ 6.2312h−$61.61-2.63%signal
40long2023-05-30 12:00 @ 5.502023-05-30 16:00 @ 5.434h−$30.27-1.30%signal
41long2023-06-23 16:00 @ 5.092023-06-28 20:00 @ 4.875d 4h−$102.49-4.42%signal
42long2023-06-29 12:00 @ 4.992023-07-24 12:00 @ 5.1925d$84.57+3.69%signal
43long2023-07-25 04:00 @ 5.222023-07-25 08:00 @ 5.184h−$21.38-0.93%signal
44long2023-07-26 20:00 @ 5.262023-07-27 00:00 @ 5.234h−$13.75-0.60%signal
45long2023-07-27 04:00 @ 5.272023-07-27 16:00 @ 5.2312h−$17.39-0.76%signal
46long2023-07-28 16:00 @ 5.242023-07-28 20:00 @ 5.204h−$19.22-0.84%signal
47long2023-07-29 20:00 @ 5.252023-07-30 00:00 @ 5.244h−$4.08-0.18%signal
48long2023-07-30 04:00 @ 5.252023-07-30 08:00 @ 5.234h−$11.93-0.52%signal
49long2023-10-01 12:00 @ 4.202023-10-03 00:00 @ 4.121d 12h−$47.26-2.06%signal
50long2023-10-03 04:00 @ 4.152023-10-03 08:00 @ 4.124h−$21.82-0.96%signal
51long2023-10-23 00:00 @ 3.962024-01-05 12:00 @ 7.4574d 12h$1,872.94+82.42%signal
52long2024-01-11 00:00 @ 7.992024-01-13 00:00 @ 7.562d−$150.17-5.48%signal
53long2024-02-08 16:00 @ 7.052024-02-08 20:00 @ 7.014h−$16.71-0.62%signal
54long2024-02-09 04:00 @ 7.052024-03-20 00:00 @ 8.7739d 20h$517.25+19.16%signal
55long2024-03-20 12:00 @ 9.282024-03-20 16:00 @ 8.934h−$109.34-3.87%signal
56long2024-03-20 20:00 @ 9.292024-03-22 00:00 @ 9.181d 4h−$36.63-1.31%signal
57long2024-03-22 04:00 @ 9.252024-03-22 12:00 @ 9.068h−$60.50-2.17%signal
58long2024-03-25 00:00 @ 9.382024-03-25 08:00 @ 9.368h−$10.38-0.37%signal
59long2024-03-25 12:00 @ 9.442024-03-27 16:00 @ 9.392d 4h−$22.95-0.83%signal
60long2024-03-28 08:00 @ 9.622024-03-28 20:00 @ 9.5012h−$40.43-1.46%signal
61long2024-05-06 08:00 @ 7.392024-05-06 12:00 @ 7.294h−$40.70-1.48%signal
62long2024-05-15 20:00 @ 7.012024-05-30 08:00 @ 6.9714d 12h−$27.30-0.99%signal
63long2024-05-30 16:00 @ 7.082024-05-31 00:00 @ 7.008h−$32.76-1.19%signal
64long2024-06-01 12:00 @ 7.072024-06-02 00:00 @ 7.0712h−$5.64-0.21%signal
65long2024-06-02 04:00 @ 7.092024-06-02 08:00 @ 7.044h−$20.38-0.75%signal
66long2024-06-02 12:00 @ 7.102024-06-02 20:00 @ 7.018h−$37.49-1.38%signal
67long2024-06-03 08:00 @ 7.142024-06-03 20:00 @ 7.1012h−$16.38-0.60%signal
68long2024-06-04 16:00 @ 7.182024-06-07 04:00 @ 7.102d 12h−$34.89-1.29%signal
69long2024-06-07 08:00 @ 7.162024-06-07 20:00 @ 6.5812h−$221.29-8.18%signal
70long2024-07-02 04:00 @ 6.452024-07-02 08:00 @ 6.374h−$34.08-1.29%signal
71long2024-07-02 12:00 @ 6.402024-07-03 04:00 @ 6.3316h−$33.16-1.26%signal
72long2024-07-06 20:00 @ 6.262024-07-07 08:00 @ 6.2112h−$26.12-0.99%signal
73long2024-07-07 12:00 @ 6.212024-07-07 16:00 @ 6.024h−$82.65-3.15%signal
74long2024-07-09 16:00 @ 6.152024-07-09 20:00 @ 6.074h−$34.81-1.34%signal
75long2024-07-10 04:00 @ 6.172024-07-11 04:00 @ 6.061d−$49.40-1.90%signal
76long2024-07-11 08:00 @ 6.132024-07-11 16:00 @ 6.008h−$57.78-2.24%signal
77long2024-07-13 00:00 @ 6.102024-07-23 08:00 @ 6.0010d 8h−$52.63-2.05%signal
78long2024-08-24 20:00 @ 5.062024-08-25 04:00 @ 4.908h−$87.58-3.43%signal
79long2024-09-13 16:00 @ 4.422024-09-14 12:00 @ 4.3620h−$38.00-1.50%signal
80long2024-09-14 16:00 @ 4.402024-09-16 04:00 @ 4.281d 12h−$73.58-2.91%signal
81long2024-09-20 08:00 @ 4.392024-09-20 12:00 @ 4.324h−$42.52-1.70%signal
82long2024-09-21 08:00 @ 4.342024-09-21 12:00 @ 4.334h−$10.06-0.40%signal
83long2024-09-21 16:00 @ 4.432024-09-22 16:00 @ 4.321d−$62.78-2.52%signal
84long2024-09-22 20:00 @ 4.342024-09-23 00:00 @ 4.314h−$21.15-0.85%signal
85long2024-09-23 04:00 @ 4.402024-10-01 16:00 @ 4.298d 12h−$69.28-2.80%signal
86long2024-10-14 16:00 @ 4.342024-10-16 08:00 @ 4.311d 16h−$22.19-0.90%signal
87long2024-10-16 12:00 @ 4.362024-10-16 16:00 @ 4.324h−$29.23-1.19%signal
88long2024-10-19 04:00 @ 4.402024-10-19 12:00 @ 4.338h−$42.49-1.74%signal
89long2024-10-19 16:00 @ 4.412024-10-22 12:00 @ 4.352d 20h−$36.49-1.50%signal
90long2024-11-07 04:00 @ 4.172024-11-07 08:00 @ 4.094h−$52.15-2.15%signal
91long2024-11-07 16:00 @ 4.152024-11-07 20:00 @ 4.144h−$9.42-0.39%signal
92long2024-11-08 00:00 @ 4.172024-12-18 08:00 @ 8.2340d 8h$2,248.00+93.39%signal
93long2024-12-18 12:00 @ 8.362024-12-18 16:00 @ 8.184h−$66.61-2.24%signal
94long2025-01-16 20:00 @ 7.332025-01-17 00:00 @ 7.154h−$75.00-2.54%signal
95long2025-01-17 04:00 @ 7.292025-01-18 08:00 @ 7.031d 4h−$105.96-3.61%signal
96long2025-03-02 20:00 @ 5.112025-03-03 08:00 @ 4.9612h−$83.46-2.87%signal
97long2025-03-22 20:00 @ 4.522025-03-23 00:00 @ 4.444h−$55.05-1.91%signal
98long2025-03-24 04:00 @ 4.552025-03-28 08:00 @ 4.304d 4h−$160.32-5.58%signal
99long2025-04-23 00:00 @ 4.012025-05-06 12:00 @ 3.8413d 12h−$128.70-4.54%signal
100long2025-05-06 16:00 @ 3.912025-05-25 12:00 @ 4.4518d 20h$375.04+13.39%signal
101long2025-05-26 00:00 @ 4.522025-05-26 20:00 @ 4.4420h−$52.96-1.83%signal
102long2025-05-27 08:00 @ 4.522025-05-28 16:00 @ 4.491d 8h−$25.67-0.89%signal
103long2025-05-29 00:00 @ 4.592025-05-29 16:00 @ 4.5016h−$60.48-2.10%signal
104long2025-07-09 20:00 @ 3.622025-07-30 12:00 @ 3.7620d 16h$82.27+2.88%signal
105long2025-07-31 04:00 @ 3.872025-07-31 16:00 @ 3.7912h−$67.09-2.33%signal
106long2025-08-08 20:00 @ 3.992025-08-11 12:00 @ 3.932d 16h−$47.43-1.66%signal
107long2025-08-12 16:00 @ 4.092025-08-14 20:00 @ 3.992d 4h−$76.21-2.67%signal
108long2025-08-15 04:00 @ 4.032025-08-15 12:00 @ 3.998h−$35.66-1.26%signal
109long2025-08-17 08:00 @ 4.022025-08-18 04:00 @ 3.9020h−$92.07-3.26%signal
110long2025-08-22 20:00 @ 4.102025-08-25 08:00 @ 3.912d 12h−$134.21-4.79%signal
111long2025-08-27 16:00 @ 3.912025-08-27 20:00 @ 3.864h−$36.66-1.32%signal
112long2025-08-28 08:00 @ 3.932025-08-28 20:00 @ 3.8812h−$40.84-1.48%signal
113long2025-08-29 00:00 @ 3.982025-08-29 08:00 @ 3.818h−$119.32-4.34%signal
114long2025-09-03 16:00 @ 3.892025-09-04 00:00 @ 3.878h−$21.52-0.79%signal
115long2025-09-07 16:00 @ 3.972025-09-22 08:00 @ 3.9814d 16h−$6.39-0.24%signal
116long2025-09-24 12:00 @ 4.072025-09-24 20:00 @ 4.048h−$22.05-0.81%signal
117long2025-10-01 12:00 @ 4.082025-10-05 20:00 @ 4.104d 8h$4.78+0.18%signal
118long2025-10-06 00:00 @ 4.132025-10-08 04:00 @ 4.102d 4h−$26.69-0.99%signal
119long2025-10-08 08:00 @ 4.152025-10-08 16:00 @ 4.138h−$15.52-0.57%signal
120long2025-10-08 20:00 @ 4.222025-10-09 04:00 @ 4.118h−$74.91-2.78%signal
121long2025-10-10 12:00 @ 4.182025-10-10 16:00 @ 4.064h−$79.98-2.99%signal
122long2025-11-07 20:00 @ 3.262025-11-08 16:00 @ 3.1220h−$114.95-4.33%signal
123long2025-11-08 20:00 @ 3.162025-11-09 04:00 @ 3.138h−$26.66-1.01%signal
124long2025-11-09 08:00 @ 3.142025-11-12 00:00 @ 3.052d 16h−$78.66-3.00%signal
125long2025-11-12 04:00 @ 3.092025-11-12 16:00 @ 2.9612h−$107.93-4.15%signal
126long2026-01-01 20:00 @ 2.002026-01-19 08:00 @ 1.9717d 12h−$53.77-2.09%signal
127long2026-01-19 20:00 @ 2.052026-01-20 12:00 @ 1.9616h−$112.81-4.40%signal
128long2026-01-21 20:00 @ 1.992026-01-22 00:00 @ 1.954h−$53.10-2.10%signal
129long2026-02-25 16:00 @ 1.522026-03-14 20:00 @ 1.4117d 4h−$159.17-6.32%signal
130long2026-03-15 12:00 @ 1.432026-03-15 16:00 @ 1.414h−$26.03-1.05%signal
131long2026-03-16 00:00 @ 1.442026-03-22 00:00 @ 1.466d$42.09+1.70%signal
132long2026-03-22 04:00 @ 1.472026-03-22 08:00 @ 1.454h−$30.47-1.23%signal
133long2026-04-16 20:00 @ 1.352026-04-17 00:00 @ 1.334h−$43.79-1.77%signal
134long2026-04-18 00:00 @ 1.332026-04-18 04:00 @ 1.334h−$10.97-0.44%signal
135long2026-04-18 08:00 @ 1.332026-04-18 12:00 @ 1.294h−$88.37-3.59%signal
136long2026-04-22 08:00 @ 1.312026-04-22 20:00 @ 1.2812h−$57.87-2.37%signal
137long2026-04-26 12:00 @ 1.272026-04-26 16:00 @ 1.274h−$7.22-0.30%signal
138long2026-04-26 20:00 @ 1.272026-04-27 00:00 @ 1.264h−$20.57-0.85%signal
139long2026-04-27 04:00 @ 1.272026-04-27 08:00 @ 1.234h−$73.92-3.06%signal
140long2026-05-04 04:00 @ 1.252026-05-04 08:00 @ 1.244h−$24.47-1.02%signal
141long2026-05-05 08:00 @ 1.252026-05-16 08:00 @ 1.2611d$12.05+0.50%signal
142long2026-05-17 08:00 @ 1.292026-05-17 16:00 @ 1.278h−$29.56-1.23%signal
143long2026-05-21 20:00 @ 1.302026-05-23 00:00 @ 1.261d 4h−$83.07-3.47%signal
144long2026-05-24 00:00 @ 1.302026-05-24 08:00 @ 1.278h−$40.12-1.69%signal
145long2026-05-24 12:00 @ 1.282026-05-24 16:00 @ 1.264h−$34.66-1.47%signal
146long2026-05-25 16:00 @ 1.282026-05-26 00:00 @ 1.268h−$45.63-1.94%signal
147long2026-05-26 12:00 @ 1.282026-05-26 16:00 @ 1.274h−$14.26-0.61%signal
148long2026-08-04 04:00 @ 0.842026-08-06 12:00 @ 0.822d 8h−$45.29-1.94%signal
149long2026-08-20 12:00 @ 0.822026-09-01 00:00 @ 0.8611d 12h$101.46+4.36%end of data

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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