[Mine-Q] Volatility squeeze breakout

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 4h · 2021-12-312026-08-31 · 10,228 bars in 7.8ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +63.72% over the same period, against this strategy’s -12.45%.

Net P&L
-12.45%
−$1,245.27
Max drawdown
-19.45%
Max run-up
+5.68%
Trades
124
29.0% win rate
Profit factor
0.69
2021-12-31drawdown · worst -19.45%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-8.86%-13.60%7030%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-4.09%-6.26%2528%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-08-31+0.15%-8.17%2928%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.60
Sortino
-0.86
Calmar
-0.14
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.64
CAGR
-2.81%
Exposure
17.4%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$10.04 · -0.42%
Average win / loss
$76.88 / −$45.60
Payoff ratio
1.69
Largest win / loss
$365.82 / −$139.84
Longest losing streak(winning: 4)
11 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-19.45%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
1696 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$280.63
Funding
$0.52
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
119
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+63.72%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 124 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-25.09%-13.09%+2.60%
Max drawdown-26.12%-16.42%-7.87%

92% of histories lost money, and 32% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -19.45%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

bb length
20
bb width (standard deviations)
2
sd20 length
20
sdMin length
120
atr14 length
14
Long entry: sd20[1] ≤ ▢ × sdMin[1]
1.25
Short entry: sd20[1] ≤ ▢ × sdMin[1]
1.25
Stop loss (× atr14)
2
Trailing stop (× atr14)
3
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

124 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1short2022-01-04 20:00 @ 46,048.882022-01-11 08:00 @ 42,454.506d 12h$197.18+7.89%trailing stop
2long2022-01-11 20:00 @ 42,947.142022-01-14 08:00 @ 41,838.482d 12h−$68.01-2.67%trailing stop
3short2022-01-17 20:00 @ 42,212.702022-01-20 12:00 @ 43,139.202d 16h−$56.26-2.22%trailing stop
4long2022-01-20 16:00 @ 43,284.412022-01-20 20:00 @ 41,895.544h−$83.53-3.32%trailing stop
5long2022-02-15 04:00 @ 43,543.812022-02-17 12:00 @ 42,487.542d 8h−$64.24-2.57%trailing stop
6long2022-03-09 04:00 @ 41,206.642022-03-10 04:00 @ 39,501.701d−$105.85-4.27%trailing stop
7short2022-03-14 00:00 @ 37,735.452022-03-14 20:00 @ 39,333.1520h−$106.74-4.35%trailing stop
8long2022-03-15 00:00 @ 39,659.532022-03-16 00:00 @ 38,853.061d−$52.48-2.16%trailing stop
9long2022-03-28 00:00 @ 46,830.262022-03-31 16:00 @ 46,440.813d 16h−$25.17-1.04%reverse
10short2022-03-31 20:00 @ 45,568.982022-04-01 12:00 @ 46,448.1316h−$48.49-2.01%trailing stop
11short2022-04-18 00:00 @ 39,641.172022-04-18 16:00 @ 40,201.2816h−$36.89-1.54%trailing stop
12short2022-05-18 16:00 @ 28,966.112022-05-20 00:00 @ 30,640.641d 8h−$139.84-5.86%trailing stop
13long2022-05-30 00:00 @ 29,458.492022-05-30 20:00 @ 30,576.4720h$86.15+3.66%trailing stop
14short2022-06-27 16:00 @ 20,739.852022-07-01 00:00 @ 20,043.333d 8h$77.16+3.25%trailing stop
15long2022-07-04 12:00 @ 19,798.162022-07-10 12:00 @ 21,062.666d$146.91+6.14%trailing stop
16short2022-08-01 00:00 @ 23,285.442022-08-08 04:00 @ 23,706.547d 4h−$43.66-1.80%trailing stop
17long2022-08-08 08:00 @ 23,801.562022-08-09 08:00 @ 23,246.451d−$59.55-2.46%trailing stop
18short2022-08-26 12:00 @ 21,175.362022-08-26 12:00 @ 21,704.180m−$62.47-2.60%trailing stop
19short2022-08-26 16:00 @ 20,765.452022-08-30 04:00 @ 20,485.123d 12h$28.67+1.20%trailing stop
20short2022-09-06 20:00 @ 18,809.342022-09-09 00:00 @ 19,491.552d 4h−$89.29-3.73%trailing stop
21long2022-09-27 04:00 @ 20,096.022022-09-27 16:00 @ 19,309.8612h−$95.61-4.03%trailing stop
22long2022-10-04 08:00 @ 19,960.992022-10-07 12:00 @ 19,543.093d 4h−$53.88-2.29%trailing stop
23short2022-10-07 16:00 @ 19,570.192022-10-13 12:00 @ 18,727.785d 20h$101.24+4.33%trailing stop
24long2022-10-23 20:00 @ 19,496.202022-10-24 12:00 @ 19,190.8116h−$39.80-1.69%trailing stop
25short2022-11-21 00:00 @ 16,269.452022-11-22 12:00 @ 16,246.281d 12h$1.08+0.05%trailing stop
26short2022-11-28 00:00 @ 16,419.222022-11-29 08:00 @ 16,540.411d 8h−$19.55-0.83%trailing stop
27long2022-12-04 20:00 @ 17,081.022022-12-05 16:00 @ 16,927.2920h−$23.46-1.00%trailing stop
28short2022-12-12 04:00 @ 16,905.622022-12-12 20:00 @ 17,120.2616h−$32.05-1.37%trailing stop
29long2022-12-26 04:00 @ 16,890.582022-12-27 16:00 @ 16,703.691d 12h−$28.35-1.22%trailing stop
30long2023-01-29 12:00 @ 23,434.692023-01-30 08:00 @ 22,997.0020h−$46.44-2.00%trailing stop
31long2023-02-14 16:00 @ 22,037.812023-02-15 20:00 @ 23,335.441d 4h$133.34+5.76%trailing stop
32long2023-03-06 16:00 @ 22,548.112023-03-07 12:00 @ 22,096.4920h−$49.60-2.11%trailing stop
33short2023-04-03 04:00 @ 27,732.552023-04-03 08:00 @ 28,485.324h−$65.78-2.82%trailing stop
34long2023-04-09 20:00 @ 28,138.032023-04-10 16:00 @ 28,386.5420h$17.53+0.76%trailing stop
35long2023-04-30 16:00 @ 29,650.332023-05-01 00:00 @ 28,803.018h−$68.87-2.96%trailing stop
36short2023-05-01 04:00 @ 28,539.892023-05-03 20:00 @ 29,045.872d 16h−$42.70-1.85%trailing stop
37short2023-05-22 04:00 @ 26,632.372023-05-23 00:00 @ 27,114.4220h−$43.51-1.90%trailing stop
38long2023-05-23 04:00 @ 27,360.172023-05-24 00:00 @ 26,823.9820h−$47.71-2.09%trailing stop
39short2023-06-05 04:00 @ 26,830.432023-06-06 16:00 @ 26,292.191d 12h$43.60+1.92%trailing stop
40short2023-06-15 00:00 @ 25,110.882023-06-15 20:00 @ 25,712.4620h−$56.79-2.49%trailing stop
41long2023-06-20 04:00 @ 26,886.082023-06-20 16:00 @ 27,044.2112h$11.14+0.49%trailing stop
42long2023-07-10 20:00 @ 30,830.662023-07-10 20:00 @ 30,184.940m−$49.83-2.19%trailing stop
43long2023-07-24 00:00 @ 30,076.912023-07-24 08:00 @ 29,610.608h−$37.59-1.66%trailing stop
44short2023-07-24 12:00 @ 29,253.852023-07-31 00:00 @ 29,507.546d 12h−$18.79-0.83%trailing stop
45short2023-07-31 20:00 @ 29,140.572023-08-01 00:00 @ 29,301.704h−$14.53-0.65%trailing stop
46short2023-08-01 04:00 @ 28,814.342023-08-01 16:00 @ 29,195.1612h−$31.50-1.41%trailing stop
47short2023-08-07 16:00 @ 28,847.432023-08-07 20:00 @ 29,245.794h−$32.87-1.47%trailing stop
48long2023-08-08 00:00 @ 29,208.542023-08-09 16:00 @ 29,509.681d 16h$19.55+0.88%trailing stop
49short2023-08-14 00:00 @ 29,287.442023-08-14 12:00 @ 29,499.4912h−$17.94-0.80%trailing stop
50short2023-09-24 20:00 @ 26,427.212023-09-27 08:00 @ 26,557.752d 12h−$12.65-0.57%trailing stop
51long2023-10-15 20:00 @ 27,035.512023-10-16 04:00 @ 27,437.188h$30.77+1.38%trailing stop
52short2023-11-14 00:00 @ 36,478.902023-11-14 16:00 @ 36,192.2116h$16.37+0.73%trailing stop
53short2023-12-25 00:00 @ 42,999.802023-12-27 08:00 @ 43,205.422d 8h−$8.01-0.36%trailing stop
54short2024-01-18 20:00 @ 41,006.002024-01-24 08:00 @ 40,530.045d 12h$27.47+1.23%trailing stop
55short2024-02-04 20:00 @ 42,615.382024-02-05 12:00 @ 43,501.1516h−$48.36-2.16%trailing stop
56long2024-02-07 20:00 @ 43,604.922024-02-20 16:00 @ 51,033.3712d 20h$365.82+16.42%trailing stop
57long2024-04-01 00:00 @ 71,377.272024-04-01 04:00 @ 69,770.674h−$56.10-2.42%trailing stop
58short2024-04-01 16:00 @ 68,267.242024-04-02 00:00 @ 69,179.358h−$32.22-1.40%trailing stop
59long2024-04-22 20:00 @ 66,508.902024-04-24 16:00 @ 64,286.161d 20h−$79.39-3.46%trailing stop
60short2024-04-24 20:00 @ 63,948.012024-04-30 00:00 @ 64,220.645d 4h−$10.48-0.46%trailing stop
61short2024-04-30 12:00 @ 61,170.062024-05-03 12:00 @ 60,377.063d$28.23+1.24%trailing stop
62short2024-05-08 00:00 @ 62,283.542024-05-13 08:00 @ 62,931.585d 8h−$23.72-1.04%trailing stop
63long2024-05-20 20:00 @ 70,010.502024-05-22 20:00 @ 68,965.832d−$37.72-1.66%trailing stop
64long2024-06-03 08:00 @ 68,963.792024-06-07 16:00 @ 69,863.344d 8h$23.62+1.04%trailing stop
65short2024-06-11 04:00 @ 68,458.512024-06-12 12:00 @ 68,204.771d 8h$7.05+0.31%trailing stop
66short2024-07-23 20:00 @ 65,503.102024-07-26 00:00 @ 66,411.322d 4h−$32.23-1.42%trailing stop
67long2024-08-20 04:00 @ 60,600.622024-08-20 12:00 @ 58,765.458h−$70.87-3.13%trailing stop
68short2024-08-27 00:00 @ 62,795.142024-08-27 20:00 @ 60,964.7320h$63.58+2.83%trailing stop
69long2024-09-23 04:00 @ 64,332.962024-09-30 00:00 @ 64,366.806d 20h−$2.94-0.13%trailing stop
70short2024-09-30 04:00 @ 64,526.992024-10-06 12:00 @ 62,750.606d 8h$62.20+2.75%trailing stop
71short2024-10-21 16:00 @ 67,340.732024-10-24 00:00 @ 67,585.052d 8h−$8.73-0.38%trailing stop
72short2024-12-02 12:00 @ 95,172.362024-12-04 20:00 @ 97,629.312d 8h−$57.88-2.54%trailing stop
73short2024-12-30 16:00 @ 92,063.082024-12-30 20:00 @ 94,704.184h−$66.95-2.96%trailing stop
74long2025-01-02 08:00 @ 95,834.562025-01-06 12:00 @ 99,049.534d 4h$70.47+3.14%trailing stop
75long2025-01-06 16:00 @ 102,124.922025-01-07 12:00 @ 99,841.5120h−$53.48-2.36%trailing stop
76short2025-01-13 12:00 @ 90,809.332025-01-13 20:00 @ 93,558.678h−$70.37-3.13%trailing stop
77long2025-02-11 08:00 @ 98,250.852025-02-11 16:00 @ 96,079.728h−$51.63-2.31%trailing stop
78short2025-02-17 04:00 @ 96,152.172025-02-19 08:00 @ 96,380.952d 4h−$6.34-0.29%trailing stop
79long2025-02-20 04:00 @ 97,036.802025-02-21 16:00 @ 96,336.851d 12h−$18.49-0.83%trailing stop
80long2025-03-14 16:00 @ 84,709.042025-03-18 12:00 @ 81,279.063d 20h−$91.99-4.16%trailing stop
81short2025-03-18 16:00 @ 81,551.192025-03-19 08:00 @ 84,062.9616h−$69.45-3.17%trailing stop
82long2025-03-19 16:00 @ 84,710.242025-03-21 12:00 @ 83,501.151d 20h−$33.57-1.55%trailing stop
83long2025-03-23 16:00 @ 85,165.032025-03-26 16:00 @ 85,994.313d$18.88+0.87%trailing stop
84short2025-04-20 12:00 @ 84,067.782025-04-21 00:00 @ 85,456.4812h−$37.94-1.75%trailing stop
85long2025-04-21 04:00 @ 87,184.032025-05-04 20:00 @ 94,770.5613d 16h$186.58+8.64%trailing stop
86long2025-06-03 00:00 @ 105,835.562025-06-05 16:00 @ 103,588.252d 16h−$49.62-2.25%trailing stop
87short2025-06-05 20:00 @ 101,852.632025-06-06 08:00 @ 103,894.1012h−$46.32-2.11%trailing stop
88long2025-06-16 08:00 @ 107,045.202025-06-17 08:00 @ 105,678.001d−$30.37-1.39%trailing stop
89long2025-06-29 12:00 @ 108,469.992025-06-30 12:00 @ 106,895.121d−$34.03-1.57%trailing stop
90short2025-07-21 20:00 @ 116,701.362025-07-22 12:00 @ 119,264.7516h−$49.32-2.28%trailing stop
91short2025-07-30 20:00 @ 116,841.832025-08-04 16:00 @ 115,560.954d 20h$23.02+1.07%trailing stop
92long2025-08-06 16:00 @ 115,389.272025-08-11 16:00 @ 119,057.695d$63.76+2.95%trailing stop
93short2025-08-18 04:00 @ 115,241.752025-08-22 12:00 @ 115,177.654d 8h$0.44+0.02%trailing stop
94long2025-09-02 04:00 @ 110,308.062025-09-15 12:00 @ 114,444.3013d 8h$74.46+3.42%trailing stop
95long2025-09-16 20:00 @ 116,780.452025-09-17 16:00 @ 115,118.5020h−$33.87-1.54%trailing stop
96long2025-10-20 04:00 @ 110,122.322025-10-21 12:00 @ 108,259.501d 8h−$39.05-1.79%trailing stop
97long2025-10-26 12:00 @ 113,257.752025-10-28 20:00 @ 112,797.692d 8h−$12.13-0.56%trailing stop
98short2025-10-29 16:00 @ 111,438.412025-11-05 16:00 @ 104,251.297d$140.93+6.49%trailing stop
99long2025-11-09 20:00 @ 104,785.052025-11-11 12:00 @ 103,259.701d 16h−$34.81-1.58%trailing stop
100short2025-11-17 20:00 @ 91,637.872025-11-23 16:00 @ 87,527.485d 20h$98.44+4.48%trailing stop
101long2025-11-26 20:00 @ 89,941.282025-12-01 00:00 @ 89,164.774d 4h−$22.09-0.99%trailing stop
102short2025-12-01 04:00 @ 86,301.842025-12-02 08:00 @ 87,656.681d 4h−$36.92-1.66%trailing stop
103long2025-12-22 08:00 @ 89,145.632025-12-23 04:00 @ 87,428.9220h−$45.03-2.04%trailing stop
104long2025-12-26 04:00 @ 88,813.962025-12-26 12:00 @ 86,697.118h−$54.67-2.49%trailing stop
105long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 90,109.522025-12-29 08:00 @ 88,545.474h−$40.29-1.84%trailing stop
106long2026-01-02 12:00 @ 89,476.192026-01-06 16:00 @ 92,042.364d 4h$58.77+2.70%trailing stop
107long2026-01-12 04:00 @ 91,784.552026-01-12 12:00 @ 90,182.818h−$40.43-1.85%trailing stop
108short2026-02-18 20:00 @ 66,125.072026-02-21 12:00 @ 68,423.722d 16h−$77.76-3.57%trailing stop
109long2026-02-21 16:00 @ 68,585.212026-02-23 00:00 @ 66,798.431d 8h−$58.71-2.72%trailing stop
110short2026-02-23 04:00 @ 64,881.122026-02-25 00:00 @ 65,617.501d 20h−$26.51-1.24%trailing stop
111long2026-03-16 00:00 @ 72,793.362026-03-18 12:00 @ 72,628.112d 12h−$6.92-0.32%trailing stop
112short2026-03-22 00:00 @ 68,867.722026-03-23 08:00 @ 70,213.751d 8h−$44.23-2.07%trailing stop
113long2026-04-01 00:00 @ 68,255.052026-04-02 08:00 @ 66,132.301d 8h−$68.20-3.21%trailing stop
114long2026-04-06 00:00 @ 69,011.702026-04-07 12:00 @ 67,970.761d 12h−$34.23-1.62%trailing stop
115long2026-04-27 00:00 @ 78,630.122026-04-27 12:00 @ 77,195.7612h−$40.20-1.91%trailing stop
116long2026-05-21 04:00 @ 78,054.812026-05-22 12:00 @ 76,608.221d 8h−$41.06-1.97%trailing stop
117short2026-05-22 20:00 @ 75,811.932026-05-23 20:00 @ 76,568.441d−$22.62-1.09%trailing stop
118short2026-05-27 04:00 @ 75,620.472026-06-07 20:00 @ 63,887.2611d 16h$323.09+15.58%trailing stop
119short2026-06-23 08:00 @ 62,836.732026-06-25 04:00 @ 61,942.171d 20h$28.59+1.33%trailing stop
120short2026-06-30 12:00 @ 59,150.372026-07-01 12:00 @ 60,325.431d−$44.89-2.08%trailing stop
121short2026-07-13 04:00 @ 62,767.542026-07-14 12:00 @ 63,817.431d 8h−$37.56-1.75%trailing stop
122long2026-08-03 20:00 @ 63,849.672026-08-10 12:00 @ 64,361.956d 16h$12.87+0.60%trailing stop
123short2026-08-10 16:00 @ 64,255.852026-08-17 04:00 @ 63,422.386d 12h$28.01+1.31%reverse
124long2026-08-17 08:00 @ 63,506.202026-08-19 12:00 @ 68,046.252d 4h$150.77+7.01%trailing stop

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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