[Famous-PA] Darvas box breakout

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 4h · 2021-12-312026-08-31 · 10,228 bars in 15.6ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +63.72% over the same period, against this strategy’s +20.61%.

Net P&L
+20.61%
$2,060.63
Max drawdown
-9.10%
Max run-up
+34.09%
Trades
131
33.6% win rate
Profit factor
1.37
2021-12-31drawdown · worst -9.10%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+17.94%-8.23%7835%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+1.71%-6.51%2829%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-08-31+0.54%-6.26%2536%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.62
Sortino
0.91
Calmar
0.45
Return ÷ max drawdown
2.26
CAGR
+4.10%
Exposure
29.5%

Per trade

Expectancy
$15.73 · +0.62%
Average win / loss
$172.92 / −$63.77
Payoff ratio
2.71
Largest win / loss
$822.33 / −$146.57
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
8 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-9.10%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
635 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$371.01
Funding
−$345.32
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
19
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+63.72%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 131 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-6.85%+19.61%+64.49%
Max drawdown-17.63%-9.55%-5.56%

12% of histories lost money, and 55% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -9.10%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh20 length
20
ll10 length
10
volsma length
20
atr14 length
14
Long entry: volume > ▢ × volsma
1.5
Stop loss (× atr14)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

131 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1long2022-01-11 20:00 @ 42,947.142022-01-14 12:00 @ 41,974.722d 16h−$58.77-2.35%signal
2long2022-01-20 16:00 @ 43,284.412022-01-20 20:00 @ 41,895.524h−$82.44-3.32%stop loss
3long2022-02-04 16:00 @ 39,489.622022-02-17 12:00 @ 43,149.6712d 20h$219.13+8.89%signal
4long2022-02-28 16:00 @ 40,800.962022-03-03 16:00 @ 42,540.993d$103.30+4.10%signal
5long2022-03-09 04:00 @ 41,206.642022-03-10 04:00 @ 39,069.121d−$135.29-5.32%stop loss
6long2022-03-24 16:00 @ 43,979.492022-03-31 16:00 @ 46,440.817d$134.24+5.35%signal
7long2022-04-19 16:00 @ 41,440.392022-04-21 20:00 @ 40,120.222d 4h−$84.04-3.30%stop loss
8long2022-05-04 20:00 @ 39,863.172022-05-05 12:00 @ 38,578.6316h−$84.32-3.34%stop loss
9long2022-05-30 04:00 @ 30,351.672022-06-01 20:00 @ 30,110.482d 16h−$24.44-0.98%signal
10long2022-06-06 04:00 @ 31,241.252022-06-07 00:00 @ 30,305.1920h−$78.00-3.12%stop loss
11long2022-07-07 20:00 @ 21,802.262022-07-10 12:00 @ 20,867.122d 16h−$110.30-4.45%stop loss
12long2022-07-18 08:00 @ 22,247.752022-07-21 12:00 @ 22,600.983d 4h$33.97+1.39%signal
13long2022-07-28 16:00 @ 23,744.152022-08-01 00:00 @ 23,285.443d 8h−$52.30-2.13%signal
14long2022-08-08 08:00 @ 23,801.562022-08-09 12:00 @ 23,140.651d 4h−$71.06-2.91%stop loss
15long2022-09-09 08:00 @ 20,627.722022-09-13 16:00 @ 20,819.744d 8h$17.05+0.70%signal
16long2022-09-27 04:00 @ 20,096.022022-09-27 16:00 @ 19,309.8612h−$97.95-4.03%stop loss
17long2022-10-04 08:00 @ 19,960.992022-10-07 16:00 @ 19,570.193d 8h−$51.94-2.16%signal
18long2022-10-23 20:00 @ 19,496.202022-10-24 12:00 @ 19,162.1316h−$43.87-1.83%stop loss
19long2022-10-25 16:00 @ 19,744.252022-10-28 08:00 @ 20,065.892d 16h$36.13+1.52%signal
20long2022-11-04 16:00 @ 20,833.372022-11-07 00:00 @ 20,895.822d 8h$3.58+0.15%signal
21long2022-11-30 04:00 @ 16,840.172022-12-07 08:00 @ 16,752.057d 4h−$16.82-0.70%signal
22long2022-12-13 12:00 @ 17,440.392022-12-15 16:00 @ 17,420.522d 4h−$6.57-0.27%signal
23long2022-12-20 16:00 @ 16,914.182022-12-22 16:00 @ 16,628.172d−$43.53-1.82%signal
24long2023-01-02 08:00 @ 16,715.942023-01-06 12:00 @ 16,728.154d 4h−$2.18-0.09%signal
25long2023-01-09 00:00 @ 17,128.022023-01-30 20:00 @ 22,779.0421d 20h$761.92+32.07%signal
26long2023-02-15 16:00 @ 22,802.562023-02-22 16:00 @ 23,702.767d$92.57+3.61%signal
27long2023-03-13 00:00 @ 21,990.602023-03-22 20:00 @ 26,647.979d 20h$536.64+20.72%signal
28long2023-03-29 12:00 @ 28,353.172023-04-02 16:00 @ 28,104.484d 4h−$28.72-1.05%signal
29long2023-04-10 00:00 @ 28,315.062023-04-17 04:00 @ 29,960.517d 4h$150.45+5.54%signal
30long2023-04-26 00:00 @ 28,292.362023-04-26 20:00 @ 27,505.8820h−$79.71-2.89%stop loss
31long2023-05-15 04:00 @ 27,221.842023-05-17 08:00 @ 26,826.432d 4h−$43.09-1.58%signal
32long2023-05-23 04:00 @ 27,360.172023-05-24 00:00 @ 26,823.9820h−$56.88-2.09%stop loss
33long2023-05-28 04:00 @ 27,179.932023-05-31 08:00 @ 27,144.973d 4h−$8.17-0.30%signal
34long2023-06-20 20:00 @ 27,979.292023-07-05 12:00 @ 30,388.9214d 16h$218.00+8.05%signal
35long2023-07-10 20:00 @ 30,830.662023-07-10 20:00 @ 30,184.940m−$60.57-2.19%stop loss
36long2023-07-13 20:00 @ 31,606.822023-07-14 16:00 @ 30,799.7020h−$73.65-2.68%stop loss
37long2023-08-02 00:00 @ 29,707.142023-08-02 12:00 @ 29,161.3912h−$53.36-1.96%stop loss
38long2023-08-08 12:00 @ 29,433.992023-08-14 00:00 @ 29,287.445d 12h−$20.08-0.74%signal
39long2023-08-14 16:00 @ 29,598.722023-08-14 16:00 @ 29,248.270m−$35.05-1.29%stop loss
40long2023-08-23 20:00 @ 26,620.522023-08-24 12:00 @ 25,971.7716h−$68.48-2.54%stop loss
41long2023-08-29 16:00 @ 27,416.882023-08-31 12:00 @ 26,767.751d 20h−$66.55-2.48%stop loss
42long2023-09-08 00:00 @ 26,245.952023-09-08 08:00 @ 25,777.628h−$50.21-1.88%stop loss
43long2023-09-12 12:00 @ 26,092.422023-09-21 12:00 @ 26,717.469d$61.21+2.31%signal
44long2023-09-27 12:00 @ 26,761.052023-09-27 12:00 @ 26,251.910m−$53.44-2.00%stop loss
45long2023-09-28 16:00 @ 27,017.702023-10-09 12:00 @ 27,450.5110d 20h$39.29+1.48%signal
46long2023-10-16 00:00 @ 27,145.232023-10-27 20:00 @ 33,698.8611d 20h$635.98+23.85%signal
47long2023-11-02 00:00 @ 35,444.592023-11-02 16:00 @ 34,458.5216h−$82.23-2.91%stop loss
48long2023-11-07 20:00 @ 35,480.592023-11-14 00:00 @ 36,478.906d 4h$68.14+2.43%signal
49long2023-11-15 20:00 @ 37,534.912023-11-16 12:00 @ 36,297.1316h−$96.54-3.42%stop loss
50long2023-11-20 20:00 @ 37,592.022023-11-21 12:00 @ 36,600.3116h−$77.12-2.76%stop loss
51long2023-11-24 16:00 @ 38,224.942023-11-26 16:00 @ 37,410.522d−$63.59-2.29%signal
52long2023-11-28 20:00 @ 38,112.322023-12-11 04:00 @ 42,304.2412d 8h$287.06+10.39%signal
53long2023-12-19 04:00 @ 43,108.722023-12-25 00:00 @ 42,999.805d 20h−$19.16-0.68%signal
54long2024-01-02 00:00 @ 44,239.152024-01-03 12:00 @ 43,049.221d 12h−$84.48-2.99%stop loss
55long2024-01-08 16:00 @ 44,978.692024-01-12 16:00 @ 44,486.204d−$37.03-1.32%signal
56long2024-01-26 12:00 @ 41,280.152024-02-01 04:00 @ 41,989.605d 16h$41.02+1.47%signal
57long2024-02-07 20:00 @ 43,604.922024-02-17 16:00 @ 51,003.209d 20h$464.94+16.55%signal
58long2024-02-26 16:00 @ 52,882.772024-03-05 20:00 @ 61,485.008d 4h$428.32+14.64%signal
59long2024-03-11 08:00 @ 71,238.142024-03-14 20:00 @ 69,486.503d 12h−$93.74-3.09%signal
60long2024-03-25 16:00 @ 69,858.472024-03-27 16:00 @ 68,908.322d−$48.60-1.61%signal
61long2024-04-08 12:00 @ 72,487.092024-04-09 04:00 @ 70,188.2116h−$99.66-3.33%stop loss
62long2024-04-19 08:00 @ 64,532.402024-04-24 16:00 @ 64,580.585d 8h−$2.33-0.08%signal
63long2024-05-15 16:00 @ 64,698.342024-05-19 20:00 @ 65,989.704d 4h$55.11+1.85%signal
64long2024-05-20 20:00 @ 70,010.502024-05-23 12:00 @ 67,947.242d 16h−$93.50-3.13%stop loss
65long2024-05-27 16:00 @ 70,435.482024-05-28 00:00 @ 68,593.628h−$80.96-2.73%stop loss
66long2024-06-03 16:00 @ 69,663.932024-06-07 20:00 @ 69,273.344d 4h−$23.71-0.81%signal
67long2024-07-01 00:00 @ 62,778.652024-07-03 00:00 @ 61,396.062d−$69.61-2.37%stop loss
68long2024-07-15 00:00 @ 60,778.152024-07-18 16:00 @ 63,487.403d 16h$126.61+4.34%signal
69long2024-07-19 20:00 @ 67,121.222024-07-23 20:00 @ 65,503.104d−$74.91-2.54%signal
70long2024-07-26 16:00 @ 67,541.412024-07-30 12:00 @ 65,542.053d 20h−$91.97-3.14%stop loss
71long2024-08-08 16:00 @ 59,403.782024-08-11 20:00 @ 59,586.183d 4h$5.74+0.20%signal
72long2024-08-20 04:00 @ 60,600.622024-08-20 12:00 @ 58,765.458h−$91.02-3.13%stop loss
73long2024-08-21 20:00 @ 61,550.412024-08-27 00:00 @ 62,795.145d 4h$55.51+1.92%signal
74long2024-09-09 20:00 @ 57,071.512024-09-16 00:00 @ 59,088.686d 4h$100.78+3.47%signal
75long2024-09-17 16:00 @ 61,123.222024-09-18 12:00 @ 59,258.4420h−$92.40-3.16%stop loss
76long2024-09-19 16:00 @ 63,141.632024-09-30 04:00 @ 64,526.9910d 12h$56.36+1.94%signal
77long2024-10-07 04:00 @ 63,507.202024-10-07 20:00 @ 62,207.6716h−$62.62-2.15%stop loss
78long2024-10-14 04:00 @ 64,293.662024-10-21 16:00 @ 67,340.737d 12h$127.95+4.41%signal
79long2024-10-28 20:00 @ 69,663.932024-10-31 16:00 @ 70,624.472d 20h$35.07+1.20%signal
80long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 74,381.972024-11-24 16:00 @ 95,967.1018d 12h$822.33+27.95%signal
81long2024-12-05 00:00 @ 98,689.532024-12-05 20:00 @ 95,089.7420h−$122.68-3.90%stop loss
82long2024-12-16 00:00 @ 104,481.392024-12-18 20:00 @ 102,761.242d 20h−$57.12-1.83%signal
83long2025-01-06 04:00 @ 99,024.802025-01-07 12:00 @ 97,165.701d 8h−$62.56-2.02%stop loss
84long2025-01-14 12:00 @ 96,527.602025-01-20 00:00 @ 101,291.245d 12h$145.41+4.71%signal
85long2025-01-20 08:00 @ 107,200.242025-01-20 16:00 @ 102,299.078h−$146.48-4.69%stop loss
86long2025-03-02 20:00 @ 93,485.892025-03-03 12:00 @ 89,134.2016h−$146.57-4.75%stop loss
87long2025-03-14 16:00 @ 84,709.042025-03-16 12:00 @ 82,351.431d 20h−$87.79-2.88%signal
88long2025-03-19 20:00 @ 85,399.682025-03-21 16:00 @ 83,509.191d 20h−$70.45-2.33%signal
89long2025-03-24 04:00 @ 86,519.902025-03-28 08:00 @ 85,158.064d 4h−$50.42-1.67%signal
90long2025-04-01 16:00 @ 85,262.552025-04-02 20:00 @ 83,005.131d 4h−$82.50-2.75%stop loss
91long2025-04-21 04:00 @ 87,184.032025-05-03 12:00 @ 95,876.5212d 8h$295.23+9.92%signal
92long2025-05-07 00:00 @ 96,818.262025-05-12 16:00 @ 102,461.305d 16h$171.40+5.62%signal
93long2025-05-18 16:00 @ 105,505.302025-05-18 20:00 @ 103,440.364h−$63.93-2.07%stop loss
94long2025-05-19 00:00 @ 106,428.782025-05-19 00:00 @ 103,676.730m−$82.82-2.69%stop loss
95long2025-05-21 16:00 @ 108,958.392025-05-28 16:00 @ 107,044.097d−$61.20-2.00%signal
96long2025-06-03 16:00 @ 106,577.412025-06-04 12:00 @ 104,398.7220h−$65.41-2.15%stop loss
97long2025-06-09 12:00 @ 107,729.342025-06-12 04:00 @ 107,798.942d 16h−$2.66-0.09%signal
98long2025-06-16 16:00 @ 107,396.472025-06-17 12:00 @ 105,253.5220h−$63.67-2.10%stop loss
99long2025-06-29 12:00 @ 108,469.992025-06-30 12:00 @ 106,895.121d−$47.10-1.57%stop loss
100long2025-07-02 20:00 @ 109,643.722025-07-04 12:00 @ 107,743.081d 16h−$55.64-1.86%stop loss
101long2025-07-09 20:00 @ 111,741.142025-07-15 04:00 @ 117,185.765d 8h$137.67+4.61%signal
102long2025-08-07 12:00 @ 116,492.392025-08-14 16:00 @ 118,162.267d 4h$34.82+1.15%signal
103long2025-08-22 16:00 @ 116,342.662025-08-24 16:00 @ 114,349.832d−$56.51-1.87%signal
104long2025-09-02 04:00 @ 110,308.062025-09-04 16:00 @ 109,426.112d 12h−$27.98-0.93%signal
105long2025-09-09 08:00 @ 112,972.792025-09-09 12:00 @ 111,157.374h−$51.58-1.72%stop loss
106long2025-09-10 16:00 @ 113,824.062025-09-19 20:00 @ 115,059.389d 4h$25.09+0.84%signal
107long2025-09-29 00:00 @ 112,142.122025-10-07 16:00 @ 121,763.848d 16h$248.14+8.27%signal
108long2025-10-21 16:00 @ 113,377.872025-10-21 20:00 @ 109,754.144h−$100.77-3.29%stop loss
109long2025-10-26 12:00 @ 113,257.752025-10-29 00:00 @ 112,810.932d 12h−$16.57-0.55%signal
110long2025-11-10 04:00 @ 106,011.802025-11-11 12:00 @ 103,256.921d 8h−$82.15-2.71%stop loss
111long2025-11-24 20:00 @ 88,294.762025-12-01 04:00 @ 86,301.846d 8h−$71.95-2.39%signal
112long2025-12-09 16:00 @ 92,695.442025-12-11 00:00 @ 89,865.621d 8h−$94.80-3.17%stop loss
113long2025-12-22 12:00 @ 89,923.182025-12-23 00:00 @ 87,803.8912h−$73.19-2.46%stop loss
114long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 90,109.522025-12-29 08:00 @ 88,545.474h−$54.44-1.84%stop loss
115long2026-01-02 12:00 @ 89,476.192026-01-08 08:00 @ 90,491.705d 20h$27.68+0.94%signal
116long2026-01-13 16:00 @ 93,426.582026-01-16 16:00 @ 94,518.693d$30.62+1.04%signal
117long2026-02-25 20:00 @ 69,019.002026-02-27 08:00 @ 66,327.001d 12h−$117.81-3.99%stop loss
118long2026-03-02 16:00 @ 69,102.922026-03-06 16:00 @ 68,454.614d−$30.67-1.05%signal
119long2026-03-10 16:00 @ 71,311.162026-03-18 12:00 @ 72,891.827d 20h$63.34+2.17%signal
120long2026-04-06 00:00 @ 69,011.702026-04-12 16:00 @ 70,841.936d 16h$74.58+2.54%signal
121long2026-04-14 00:00 @ 74,399.782026-04-19 08:00 @ 75,190.665d 8h$30.52+1.03%signal
122long2026-04-22 04:00 @ 77,503.902026-04-27 16:00 @ 76,744.655d 12h−$30.40-1.03%signal
123long2026-05-01 16:00 @ 78,411.082026-05-07 16:00 @ 79,845.536d$52.56+1.78%signal
124long2026-05-11 00:00 @ 82,194.142026-05-11 00:00 @ 80,567.330m−$61.74-2.08%stop loss
125long2026-06-15 00:00 @ 65,715.242026-06-17 12:00 @ 64,761.652d 12h−$45.44-1.54%signal
126long2026-06-22 16:00 @ 64,820.962026-06-23 04:00 @ 63,330.7612h−$70.65-2.41%stop loss
127long2026-07-02 16:00 @ 61,596.322026-07-08 12:00 @ 62,257.555d 20h$24.31+0.83%signal
128long2026-07-14 16:00 @ 64,740.352026-07-17 00:00 @ 63,788.342d 8h−$47.25-1.62%signal
129long2026-07-20 16:00 @ 65,583.212026-07-23 08:00 @ 65,392.222d 16h−$12.36-0.42%signal
130long2026-08-17 16:00 @ 64,182.632026-08-23 08:00 @ 76,005.005d 16h$528.52+18.17%signal
131long2026-08-25 04:00 @ 80,473.692026-08-26 12:00 @ 77,789.621d 8h−$105.44-3.47%stop loss

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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