[Famous-PA] Raschke 80-20

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 12h · 2021-12-302026-08-31 · 3,412 bars in 4.7ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +65.39% over the same period, against this strategy’s -6.73%.

Net P&L
-6.73%
−$673.10
Max drawdown
-13.82%
Max run-up
+8.25%
Trades
133
48.1% win rate
Profit factor
0.84
2021-12-30drawdown · worst -13.82%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-6.89%-10.93%7146%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-24-2.71%-6.46%3444%
Out-of-sample2025-09-242026-08-31+2.97%-3.17%2857%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.32
Sortino
-0.43
Calmar
-0.11
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.49
CAGR
-1.48%
Exposure
16.2%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$5.06 · -0.20%
Average win / loss
$56.89 / −$62.53
Payoff ratio
0.91
Largest win / loss
$150.60 / −$190.66
Longest losing streak(winning: 5)
6 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-13.82%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
1668 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$312.24
Funding
$29.01
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
13
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+65.39%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 133 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-19.72%-7.10%+7.45%
Max drawdown-22.37%-12.48%-6.33%

81% of histories lost money, and 41% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -13.82%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

atr14 length
14
Long entry: open[1] ≥ low[1] + (▢ × (high[1] − low[1]))
0.8
Long entry: close[1] ≤ low[1] + (▢ × (high[1] − low[1]))
0.2
Short entry: open[1] ≤ low[1] + (▢ × (high[1] − low[1]))
0.2
Short entry: close[1] ≥ low[1] + (▢ × (high[1] − low[1]))
0.8
Stop loss (× atr14)
1.5
Trailing stop (× atr14)
2
Close after (bars)
5
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

133 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1short2022-01-21 00:00 @ 40,653.932022-01-21 12:00 @ 38,629.0012h$122.62+4.90%trailing stop
2long2022-02-03 12:00 @ 36,762.342022-02-04 12:00 @ 38,397.051d$109.88+4.34%trailing stop
3short2022-02-05 12:00 @ 41,419.562022-02-07 12:00 @ 43,764.952d−$146.54-5.73%trailing stop
4short2022-03-09 00:00 @ 38,702.162022-03-09 00:00 @ 41,497.140m−$184.25-7.31%trailing stop
5short2022-03-10 00:00 @ 41,931.112022-03-11 00:00 @ 39,414.981d$146.35+5.91%reverse
6short2022-03-24 12:00 @ 42,940.912022-03-25 12:00 @ 44,958.181d−$120.20-4.79%trailing stop
7short2022-03-30 00:00 @ 47,409.022022-04-02 00:00 @ 46,275.453d$59.00+2.38%time stop
8long2022-04-07 12:00 @ 43,748.652022-04-10 12:00 @ 42,657.573d−$66.32-2.66%time stop
9short2022-04-26 12:00 @ 40,444.212022-04-26 12:00 @ 40,298.300m$6.71+0.27%trailing stop
10short2022-04-28 00:00 @ 39,201.162022-05-01 00:00 @ 37,621.923d$98.10+3.95%time stop
11long2022-05-01 12:00 @ 37,929.582022-05-04 12:00 @ 38,979.703d$64.78+2.58%time stop
12long2022-05-07 00:00 @ 36,002.402022-05-08 00:00 @ 34,148.931d−$132.54-5.25%trailing stop
13long2022-05-10 12:00 @ 31,629.422022-05-11 12:00 @ 29,244.101d−$190.66-7.66%trailing stop
14short2022-05-20 12:00 @ 30,406.322022-05-23 12:00 @ 30,399.883d−$0.97-0.04%time stop
15short2022-06-07 00:00 @ 31,354.932022-06-07 00:00 @ 31,302.340m$1.65+0.07%trailing stop
16long2022-07-01 00:00 @ 19,927.282022-07-04 00:00 @ 19,302.143d−$79.16-3.24%time stop
17short2022-07-08 12:00 @ 21,573.482022-07-11 12:00 @ 20,469.193d$123.48+5.10%time stop
18short2022-08-06 00:00 @ 23,293.342022-08-09 00:00 @ 23,809.063d−$55.31-2.25%time stop
19short2022-08-13 12:00 @ 24,421.012022-08-16 12:00 @ 24,031.213d$36.63+1.50%time stop
20short2022-08-19 00:00 @ 23,180.362022-08-19 00:00 @ 22,699.210m$48.67+1.99%trailing stop
21short2022-08-22 00:00 @ 21,501.302022-08-25 00:00 @ 21,359.273d$13.33+0.54%time stop
22long2022-09-07 12:00 @ 18,733.152022-09-09 00:00 @ 19,892.781d 12h$149.51+6.07%trailing stop
23short2022-09-22 00:00 @ 18,443.812022-09-24 00:00 @ 19,284.562d−$116.73-4.67%reverse
24short2022-09-28 00:00 @ 19,066.292022-09-28 12:00 @ 18,951.3912h$12.43+0.50%reverse
25long2022-10-06 00:00 @ 20,153.932022-10-08 12:00 @ 19,256.542d 12h−$114.41-4.62%trailing stop
26long2023-02-10 12:00 @ 21,731.052023-02-13 12:00 @ 21,591.583d−$19.47-0.80%time stop
27short2023-03-13 12:00 @ 22,088.182023-03-13 12:00 @ 23,346.180m−$141.30-5.79%trailing stop
28short2023-03-15 00:00 @ 24,677.562023-03-17 00:00 @ 25,843.152d−$113.69-4.72%trailing stop
29short2023-05-21 12:00 @ 26,812.642023-05-24 12:00 @ 26,737.053d$5.65+0.24%time stop
30short2023-05-29 12:00 @ 27,902.522023-06-01 00:00 @ 27,206.542d 12h$58.04+2.44%reverse
31short2023-06-07 12:00 @ 26,883.022023-06-10 12:00 @ 25,723.843d$101.97+4.26%time stop
32short2023-06-28 00:00 @ 30,677.062023-06-30 00:00 @ 31,223.832d−$43.88-1.81%trailing stop
33long2023-07-07 12:00 @ 30,109.922023-07-10 12:00 @ 30,215.563d$5.34+0.22%time stop
34long2023-08-31 00:00 @ 27,295.862023-08-31 12:00 @ 26,640.6412h−$60.64-2.52%trailing stop
35short2023-09-14 00:00 @ 26,204.662023-09-17 00:00 @ 26,552.313d−$34.31-1.43%time stop
36short2023-09-19 00:00 @ 26,744.552023-09-22 00:00 @ 26,557.913d$14.34+0.60%time stop
37short2023-09-28 00:00 @ 26,354.332023-09-28 12:00 @ 26,999.0712h−$61.01-2.55%trailing stop
38long2023-10-10 00:00 @ 27,583.922023-10-11 12:00 @ 26,859.071d 12h−$65.52-2.76%trailing stop
39long2023-11-08 00:00 @ 35,413.582023-11-09 12:00 @ 36,482.741d 12h$67.11+2.85%trailing stop
40short2023-11-10 00:00 @ 36,712.262023-11-12 00:00 @ 37,169.532d−$30.22-1.27%reverse
41long2023-11-22 12:00 @ 36,473.092023-11-25 12:00 @ 37,637.473d$70.97+3.00%time stop
42short2024-01-16 00:00 @ 42,506.502024-01-18 00:00 @ 42,791.862d−$16.96-0.71%reverse
43short2024-02-02 12:00 @ 43,128.272024-02-05 12:00 @ 43,189.443d−$3.81-0.16%time stop
44short2024-02-10 00:00 @ 47,106.682024-02-12 00:00 @ 48,611.622d−$76.55-3.22%trailing stop
45short2024-02-13 12:00 @ 49,993.902024-02-14 00:00 @ 50,557.5112h−$28.26-1.20%trailing stop
46short2024-02-15 00:00 @ 51,812.742024-02-18 00:00 @ 51,689.843d$5.50+0.23%time stop
47long2024-02-20 12:00 @ 52,336.372024-02-21 12:00 @ 50,763.751d−$74.28-3.15%trailing stop
48long2024-02-22 00:00 @ 51,888.282024-02-25 00:00 @ 51,591.783d−$17.97-0.77%time stop
49short2024-02-25 12:00 @ 51,661.972024-02-26 12:00 @ 52,924.471d−$57.21-2.45%trailing stop
50short2024-03-05 12:00 @ 66,735.752024-03-05 12:00 @ 64,433.120m$79.64+3.44%trailing stop
51long2024-03-17 12:00 @ 67,028.302024-03-19 00:00 @ 63,341.151d 12h−$134.53-5.76%trailing stop
52long2024-04-03 00:00 @ 65,515.502024-04-06 00:00 @ 67,812.233d$76.31+3.31%time stop
53short2024-04-09 00:00 @ 71,663.962024-04-12 00:00 @ 70,069.613d$52.76+2.27%time stop
54short2024-05-21 12:00 @ 71,148.772024-05-23 12:00 @ 69,905.822d$40.22+1.72%trailing stop
55short2024-05-24 00:00 @ 67,986.302024-05-27 00:00 @ 68,538.103d−$19.27-0.82%time stop
56short2024-06-04 00:00 @ 68,837.532024-06-04 12:00 @ 70,950.1412h−$73.47-3.14%trailing stop
57short2024-06-08 00:00 @ 69,363.122024-06-11 00:00 @ 69,572.713d−$7.25-0.31%time stop
58long2024-06-12 00:00 @ 67,334.062024-06-13 00:00 @ 67,181.991d−$8.73-0.38%trailing stop
59long2024-06-18 00:00 @ 66,485.392024-06-18 12:00 @ 64,387.4012h−$76.10-3.28%trailing stop
60long2024-06-22 00:00 @ 64,136.922024-06-24 00:00 @ 62,170.062d−$74.17-3.22%trailing stop
61short2024-07-01 12:00 @ 62,645.372024-07-03 00:00 @ 62,281.281d 12h$12.34+0.54%trailing stop
62long2024-07-08 12:00 @ 57,148.732024-07-11 12:00 @ 58,742.253d$59.63+2.61%time stop
63short2024-07-16 12:00 @ 63,707.062024-07-19 12:00 @ 64,108.423d−$16.39-0.71%time stop
64long2024-07-26 00:00 @ 65,786.152024-07-29 00:00 @ 68,201.863d$80.36+3.50%time stop
65short2024-07-30 00:00 @ 66,736.752024-07-30 12:00 @ 66,545.9112h$4.47+0.19%reverse
66long2024-08-12 12:00 @ 59,821.162024-08-15 00:00 @ 58,636.372d 12h−$48.00-2.07%reverse
67long2024-08-15 12:00 @ 58,723.742024-08-18 12:00 @ 59,979.303d$47.32+2.05%time stop
68long2024-08-19 12:00 @ 58,372.472024-08-22 12:00 @ 61,284.643d$113.41+4.90%time stop
69long2024-09-15 00:00 @ 59,975.892024-09-16 12:00 @ 57,693.101d 12h−$91.83-3.92%trailing stop
70long2024-09-26 12:00 @ 64,385.772024-09-29 12:00 @ 65,657.273d$42.37+1.82%time stop
71long2024-10-14 00:00 @ 62,852.272024-10-14 00:00 @ 62,428.860m−$18.41-0.79%trailing stop
72short2024-10-20 12:00 @ 68,382.722024-10-23 12:00 @ 66,419.383d$66.60+2.86%time stop
73long2024-10-24 00:00 @ 66,660.632024-10-25 12:00 @ 66,201.901d 12h−$19.89-0.85%trailing stop
74long2024-10-31 00:00 @ 72,363.472024-10-31 12:00 @ 70,295.2212h−$69.86-2.99%trailing stop
75short2024-11-12 12:00 @ 87,212.052024-11-13 12:00 @ 90,678.741d−$92.69-3.99%trailing stop
76short2024-11-22 00:00 @ 98,347.132024-11-25 00:00 @ 97,980.093d$8.79+0.38%time stop
77long2024-12-19 12:00 @ 102,440.482024-12-19 12:00 @ 97,326.610m−$117.32-5.10%trailing stop
78long2024-12-21 00:00 @ 97,784.052024-12-24 00:00 @ 94,842.033d−$72.37-3.19%time stop
79short2024-12-26 12:00 @ 95,643.472024-12-29 12:00 @ 95,005.203d$14.58+0.65%time stop
80short2025-01-07 12:00 @ 100,766.842025-01-10 12:00 @ 95,049.513d$127.16+5.63%time stop
81short2025-01-11 00:00 @ 94,656.662025-01-13 00:00 @ 95,849.892d−$30.27-1.32%trailing stop
82short2025-01-16 12:00 @ 99,087.282025-01-17 12:00 @ 102,768.461d−$86.56-3.79%trailing stop
83short2025-02-08 00:00 @ 96,435.212025-02-11 00:00 @ 97,398.683d−$24.12-1.07%time stop
84long2025-02-14 00:00 @ 96,579.912025-02-17 00:00 @ 96,047.793d−$15.37-0.68%time stop
85long2025-02-17 12:00 @ 96,037.502025-02-20 12:00 @ 97,145.173d$22.31+0.99%time stop
86long2025-02-24 00:00 @ 96,237.642025-02-24 12:00 @ 93,691.4912h−$62.03-2.75%trailing stop
87short2025-03-01 12:00 @ 84,576.682025-03-02 12:00 @ 89,067.841d−$121.42-5.42%trailing stop
88long2025-03-11 12:00 @ 81,700.842025-03-14 12:00 @ 83,186.263d$37.14+1.68%time stop
89long2025-03-17 00:00 @ 82,558.112025-03-20 00:00 @ 86,792.443d$110.90+5.00%time stop
90short2025-03-20 12:00 @ 85,445.812025-03-23 12:00 @ 84,668.333d$18.62+0.83%time stop
91long2025-03-30 00:00 @ 82,621.322025-04-02 00:00 @ 85,103.983d$64.76+2.88%time stop
92long2025-04-09 12:00 @ 76,219.342025-04-09 12:00 @ 77,184.940m$26.27+1.16%trailing stop
93short2025-04-23 12:00 @ 93,406.512025-04-26 12:00 @ 94,114.523d−$19.73-0.87%time stop
94long2025-05-07 00:00 @ 96,818.262025-05-08 12:00 @ 100,177.891d 12h$76.07+3.35%trailing stop
95short2025-05-19 12:00 @ 102,891.522025-05-20 00:00 @ 106,294.7912h−$77.59-3.39%trailing stop
96long2025-05-30 12:00 @ 105,848.572025-06-02 12:00 @ 103,979.303d−$43.18-1.90%time stop
97long2025-06-03 00:00 @ 105,835.562025-06-03 12:00 @ 105,219.0512h−$15.65-0.69%reverse
98short2025-06-30 00:00 @ 108,288.142025-07-02 12:00 @ 108,496.082d 12h−$6.03-0.27%trailing stop
99short2025-07-28 12:00 @ 118,789.642025-07-31 12:00 @ 118,354.573d$7.92+0.35%time stop
100short2025-08-14 12:00 @ 120,923.612025-08-17 12:00 @ 118,277.653d$48.48+2.15%time stop
101short2025-08-18 00:00 @ 117,330.432025-08-20 12:00 @ 113,650.132d 12h$69.53+3.07%reverse
102long2025-08-24 00:00 @ 115,400.182025-08-24 12:00 @ 112,268.6612h−$64.91-2.84%trailing stop
103short2025-08-29 00:00 @ 112,484.802025-09-01 00:00 @ 108,230.043d$84.60+3.73%time stop
104short2025-09-08 00:00 @ 111,053.282025-09-10 12:00 @ 113,888.982d 12h−$59.19-2.59%trailing stop
105short2025-09-11 12:00 @ 113,938.212025-09-14 12:00 @ 115,773.153d−$38.06-1.67%time stop
106long2025-09-26 12:00 @ 109,104.722025-09-28 12:00 @ 109,127.262d−$2.54-0.11%trailing stop
107short2025-09-29 12:00 @ 112,029.592025-09-30 00:00 @ 114,449.0812h−$50.99-2.25%trailing stop
108short2025-09-30 12:00 @ 112,981.102025-10-01 00:00 @ 115,499.7712h−$52.24-2.32%trailing stop
109short2025-10-13 12:00 @ 114,106.372025-10-16 12:00 @ 111,386.273d$50.78+2.27%time stop
110short2025-11-01 00:00 @ 109,535.292025-11-04 00:00 @ 106,565.313d$60.39+2.68%time stop
111long2025-11-09 00:00 @ 102,289.752025-11-12 00:00 @ 102,985.203d$12.23+0.54%time stop
112short2025-11-13 00:00 @ 101,585.482025-11-16 00:00 @ 95,579.513d$133.44+5.88%time stop
113long2025-11-18 12:00 @ 91,492.392025-11-20 12:00 @ 87,825.342d−$95.52-4.15%trailing stop
114long2025-11-22 00:00 @ 85,110.622025-11-25 00:00 @ 88,229.453d$80.69+3.54%time stop
115long2025-12-02 00:00 @ 86,258.752025-12-05 00:00 @ 92,016.293d$150.60+6.55%time stop
116short2025-12-20 00:00 @ 88,082.382025-12-23 00:00 @ 88,599.223d−$14.72-0.63%time stop
117long2026-02-06 12:00 @ 66,599.422026-02-09 00:00 @ 70,274.142d 12h$127.56+5.47%reverse
118long2026-02-11 00:00 @ 68,819.062026-02-14 00:00 @ 68,807.743d−$2.70-0.11%time stop
119long2026-03-07 12:00 @ 67,989.602026-03-10 12:00 @ 70,555.993d$87.47+3.70%time stop
120short2026-03-14 00:00 @ 70,881.322026-03-16 00:00 @ 74,130.652d−$111.92-4.69%trailing stop
121long2026-03-28 00:00 @ 66,377.372026-03-31 00:00 @ 66,751.053d$11.27+0.48%time stop
122short2026-04-14 12:00 @ 74,327.532026-04-17 12:00 @ 75,557.213d−$42.12-1.78%time stop
123short2026-04-23 00:00 @ 78,124.072026-04-26 00:00 @ 77,600.523d$12.33+0.52%time stop
124long2026-04-29 00:00 @ 76,313.462026-04-29 12:00 @ 74,862.6312h−$47.11-2.00%trailing stop
125long2026-06-03 12:00 @ 67,053.512026-06-03 12:00 @ 64,535.430m−$90.44-3.86%trailing stop
126short2026-06-23 00:00 @ 63,977.302026-06-24 12:00 @ 62,235.871d 12h$61.01+2.63%trailing stop
127long2026-07-07 00:00 @ 64,036.302026-07-08 00:00 @ 61,698.301d−$88.15-3.78%trailing stop
128short2026-07-11 00:00 @ 64,116.672026-07-14 00:00 @ 62,319.463d$63.67+2.75%time stop
129short2026-07-15 12:00 @ 64,694.462026-07-18 12:00 @ 64,046.013d$22.07+0.95%time stop
130short2026-07-19 12:00 @ 64,432.812026-07-21 00:00 @ 66,028.731d 12h−$59.29-2.54%trailing stop
131short2026-07-27 12:00 @ 65,060.092026-07-30 00:00 @ 64,821.742d 12h$7.45+0.32%trailing stop
132short2026-08-08 00:00 @ 64,872.522026-08-11 00:00 @ 63,952.093d$31.90+1.37%time stop
133short2026-08-13 00:00 @ 63,441.912026-08-15 00:00 @ 63,027.502d$13.74+0.59%reverse

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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