[Famous-Q] Bollinger band reversion

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 12h · 2021-12-302026-08-31 · 3,411 bars in 5.7ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +66.79% over the same period, against this strategy’s -18.19%.

Net P&L
-18.19%
−$1,818.89
Max drawdown
-22.94%
Max run-up
+13.68%
Trades
132
66.7% win rate
Profit factor
0.77
2021-12-30drawdown · worst -22.94%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-16.71%-21.53%7766%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-24+3.21%-8.11%2972%
Out-of-sample2025-09-242026-08-31-4.84%-7.53%2662%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.39
Sortino
-0.53
Calmar
-0.18
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.79
CAGR
-4.21%
Exposure
54.5%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$13.78 · -0.54%
Average win / loss
$69.40 / −$180.13
Payoff ratio
0.39
Largest win / loss
$225.96 / −$796.81
Longest losing streak(winning: 7)
4 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-22.94%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
1692 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$287.19
Funding
$202.80
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
19
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+66.79%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 132 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-43.10%-18.35%+12.14%
Max drawdown-46.92%-27.65%-12.98%

85% of histories lost money, and 67% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -22.94%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

bb length
20
bb width (standard deviations)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

132 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1long2022-01-06 00:00 @ 43,430.382022-01-13 00:00 @ 43,871.947d$18.76+0.75%signal
2long2022-01-21 00:00 @ 40,670.192022-01-29 00:00 @ 37,688.688d−$187.06-7.47%signal
3short2022-02-05 00:00 @ 41,541.692022-02-14 00:00 @ 42,049.539d−$28.34-1.15%signal
4long2022-02-18 00:00 @ 40,499.902022-02-27 00:00 @ 39,091.489d−$88.05-3.59%signal
5short2022-03-01 00:00 @ 43,146.372022-03-05 00:00 @ 39,135.534d$225.96+9.30%signal
6short2022-03-25 00:00 @ 43,964.412022-04-01 12:00 @ 45,054.117d 12h−$59.68-2.40%signal
7long2022-04-06 12:00 @ 44,811.462022-04-19 00:00 @ 40,777.5412d 12h−$227.31-9.20%signal
8short2022-04-21 12:00 @ 42,409.522022-04-22 00:00 @ 40,457.7912h$108.84+4.51%signal
9long2022-05-06 00:00 @ 36,541.012022-05-20 00:00 @ 30,313.8414d−$420.25-17.22%signal
10short2022-05-30 12:00 @ 30,652.872022-06-02 00:00 @ 29,802.862d 12h$64.14+2.75%signal
11long2022-06-11 12:00 @ 28,729.642022-06-24 00:00 @ 21,092.3812d 12h−$627.70-26.69%signal
12long2022-06-30 12:00 @ 19,092.522022-07-05 00:00 @ 20,222.254d 12h$127.50+5.81%signal
13short2022-07-08 00:00 @ 21,610.182022-07-12 00:00 @ 19,958.294d$170.17+7.64%signal
14short2022-07-19 00:00 @ 22,419.022022-07-25 12:00 @ 21,935.996d 12h$50.50+2.23%signal
15short2022-08-08 12:00 @ 24,155.072022-08-10 00:00 @ 23,144.731d 12h$94.05+4.12%signal
16short2022-08-11 12:00 @ 24,542.292022-08-17 00:00 @ 23,847.775d 12h$63.52+2.76%signal
17long2022-08-19 12:00 @ 21,457.992022-09-09 12:00 @ 20,927.5121d−$59.27-2.55%signal
18short2022-09-10 00:00 @ 21,347.732022-09-14 00:00 @ 20,166.634d$128.00+5.55%signal
19short2022-09-27 12:00 @ 20,216.962022-09-28 00:00 @ 19,073.9112h$130.13+5.56%signal
20short2022-10-05 00:00 @ 20,328.832022-10-08 00:00 @ 19,524.803d$93.50+3.94%signal
21short2022-10-26 00:00 @ 20,064.292022-11-03 00:00 @ 20,144.238d−$10.76-0.45%signal
22short2022-11-05 00:00 @ 21,133.372022-11-08 00:00 @ 20,582.623d$61.63+2.58%signal
23long2022-11-08 12:00 @ 19,692.842022-11-23 12:00 @ 16,573.6815d−$376.67-15.65%signal
24short2022-12-01 00:00 @ 17,149.972022-12-07 12:00 @ 16,790.566d 12h$47.70+2.06%signal
25short2022-12-13 12:00 @ 17,433.412022-12-16 12:00 @ 17,022.103d$54.33+2.34%signal
26long2022-12-29 00:00 @ 16,542.212023-01-02 12:00 @ 16,725.054d 12h$21.14+0.90%signal
27short2023-01-07 00:00 @ 16,940.512023-01-31 00:00 @ 22,824.4624d−$796.81-34.00%signal
28short2023-02-02 00:00 @ 23,725.352023-02-06 00:00 @ 22,933.894d$71.97+3.36%signal
29long2023-02-10 00:00 @ 21,797.662023-02-15 12:00 @ 22,428.515d 12h$57.83+2.67%signal
30short2023-02-16 00:00 @ 24,327.832023-02-23 12:00 @ 23,772.357d 12h$52.71+2.42%signal
31long2023-02-25 12:00 @ 22,978.492023-03-13 00:00 @ 21,981.8015d 12h−$100.85-4.60%signal
32short2023-03-14 00:00 @ 24,114.682023-03-28 00:00 @ 27,117.4214d−$264.47-12.22%signal
33short2023-04-11 00:00 @ 29,617.182023-04-18 00:00 @ 29,425.987d$14.70+0.70%signal
34long2023-04-20 12:00 @ 28,607.222023-04-26 12:00 @ 28,934.916d$20.01+0.95%signal
35long2023-05-08 12:00 @ 27,927.782023-05-18 00:00 @ 27,390.229d 12h−$44.92-2.13%signal
36long2023-05-25 00:00 @ 26,319.162023-05-28 00:00 @ 26,836.233d$37.51+1.79%signal
37short2023-05-29 00:00 @ 28,050.192023-06-01 12:00 @ 26,886.983d 12h$86.83+4.12%signal
38long2023-06-06 00:00 @ 25,719.742023-06-07 00:00 @ 27,216.061d$121.69+5.72%signal
39long2023-06-15 00:00 @ 25,120.922023-06-17 00:00 @ 26,330.632d$101.38+4.70%signal
40short2023-06-21 00:00 @ 28,285.042023-07-05 12:00 @ 30,401.0814d 12h−$155.76-7.13%signal
41long2023-07-07 00:00 @ 29,880.272023-07-12 00:00 @ 30,602.185d$48.40+2.26%signal
42short2023-07-14 00:00 @ 31,435.312023-07-15 00:00 @ 30,299.361d$76.44+3.54%signal
43long2023-07-24 12:00 @ 29,265.552023-08-02 00:00 @ 29,695.268d 12h$26.02+1.20%signal
44short2023-08-09 00:00 @ 29,752.952023-08-14 00:00 @ 29,299.165d$34.05+1.56%signal
45long2023-08-17 00:00 @ 28,720.142023-08-29 00:00 @ 26,101.2812d−$203.24-9.28%signal
46short2023-08-30 00:00 @ 27,694.562023-09-01 00:00 @ 25,933.192d$134.68+6.29%signal
47long2023-09-12 00:00 @ 25,155.432023-09-12 12:00 @ 26,081.9812h$77.65+3.57%signal
48short2023-09-14 12:00 @ 26,426.312023-09-22 00:00 @ 26,557.917d 12h−$13.35-0.61%signal
49long2023-09-25 12:00 @ 26,069.712023-09-27 12:00 @ 26,750.352d$54.53+2.49%signal
50short2023-10-02 00:00 @ 27,975.802023-10-09 12:00 @ 27,461.497d 12h$38.99+1.77%signal
51long2023-10-12 00:00 @ 26,869.872023-10-16 12:00 @ 27,731.454d 12h$67.88+3.07%signal
52short2023-10-17 00:00 @ 28,480.602023-11-03 12:00 @ 34,272.3517d 12h−$446.88-20.04%signal
53short2023-11-09 12:00 @ 36,809.542023-11-15 00:00 @ 35,566.215d 12h$75.20+3.55%signal
54short2023-12-02 00:00 @ 38,652.172023-12-12 00:00 @ 41,279.3510d−$138.29-6.47%signal
55long2023-12-30 00:00 @ 42,103.522024-01-02 00:00 @ 44,221.453d$97.03+4.62%signal
56short2024-01-02 12:00 @ 45,477.702024-01-04 00:00 @ 42,858.071d 12h$122.54+5.76%signal
57short2024-01-09 00:00 @ 46,963.212024-01-13 00:00 @ 42,797.564d$191.81+8.89%signal
58long2024-01-22 12:00 @ 40,817.662024-01-26 12:00 @ 41,263.654d$19.28+0.87%signal
59short2024-02-08 00:00 @ 44,317.432024-02-21 12:00 @ 50,998.4013d 12h−$323.99-14.66%signal
60long2024-02-24 00:00 @ 50,782.052024-02-26 00:00 @ 51,754.552d$37.07+1.74%signal
61short2024-02-27 00:00 @ 54,500.802024-03-15 12:00 @ 67,831.8617d 12h−$460.60-21.54%signal
62long2024-03-19 12:00 @ 63,149.732024-03-25 00:00 @ 67,247.455d 12h$124.45+6.15%signal
63short2024-03-26 12:00 @ 70,719.952024-04-02 12:00 @ 65,697.347d$156.85+7.64%signal
64long2024-04-14 00:00 @ 63,952.492024-04-21 12:00 @ 65,190.467d 12h$35.89+1.71%signal
65long2024-04-30 12:00 @ 61,194.542024-05-04 00:00 @ 62,841.133d 12h$53.33+2.54%signal
66short2024-05-16 00:00 @ 66,162.162024-05-27 12:00 @ 68,476.6911d 12h−$70.57-3.34%signal
67short2024-06-05 00:00 @ 70,565.882024-06-11 00:00 @ 69,572.716d$31.46+1.50%signal
68long2024-06-11 12:00 @ 66,932.982024-07-01 00:00 @ 62,753.5519d 12h−$143.87-6.83%signal
69long2024-07-04 12:00 @ 57,759.952024-07-11 12:00 @ 58,742.257d$29.66+1.43%signal
70short2024-07-14 12:00 @ 60,066.982024-07-25 00:00 @ 65,363.7710d 12h−$183.06-8.81%signal
71short2024-07-29 12:00 @ 69,535.892024-07-30 00:00 @ 66,763.4512h$79.20+3.90%signal
72long2024-08-03 00:00 @ 61,496.002024-08-09 00:00 @ 61,647.476d$1.50+0.07%signal
73short2024-08-24 00:00 @ 64,007.202024-08-28 00:00 @ 59,396.284d$146.29+7.13%signal
74long2024-09-07 00:00 @ 53,938.492024-09-10 00:00 @ 56,998.703d$117.21+5.61%signal
75short2024-09-14 00:00 @ 60,444.112024-09-30 12:00 @ 63,807.1616d 12h−$115.68-5.46%signal
76long2024-10-02 00:00 @ 60,788.862024-10-07 12:00 @ 63,101.485d 12h$76.11+3.64%signal
77short2024-10-14 12:00 @ 64,886.522024-10-23 12:00 @ 66,419.389d−$46.08-2.19%signal
78short2024-10-29 00:00 @ 69,925.912024-11-03 00:00 @ 69,380.475d$17.45+0.83%signal
79short2024-11-06 12:00 @ 74,276.842024-11-26 00:00 @ 93,082.6119d 12h−$512.10-24.38%signal
80short2024-12-05 12:00 @ 102,647.672024-12-10 00:00 @ 97,368.574d 12h$104.34+5.29%signal
81short2024-12-16 00:00 @ 104,439.612024-12-19 00:00 @ 100,201.243d$80.87+4.05%signal
82long2024-12-20 12:00 @ 92,733.642024-12-26 00:00 @ 99,359.725d 12h$139.00+6.89%signal
83short2025-01-07 00:00 @ 102,160.062025-01-08 12:00 @ 95,112.821d 12h$140.60+6.85%signal
84short2025-01-17 12:00 @ 102,161.162025-01-27 00:00 @ 102,580.519d 12h−$5.47-0.26%signal
85long2025-01-27 12:00 @ 98,719.842025-01-30 00:00 @ 103,677.362d 12h$101.52+4.86%signal
86long2025-02-02 12:00 @ 98,831.262025-02-11 12:00 @ 98,080.489d−$20.54-0.97%signal
87short2025-02-21 12:00 @ 98,559.982025-02-22 00:00 @ 96,147.2312h$49.51+2.35%signal
88long2025-02-25 00:00 @ 91,532.802025-03-03 00:00 @ 94,203.166d$58.53+2.76%signal
89long2025-03-11 00:00 @ 78,583.512025-03-17 12:00 @ 83,458.316d 12h$129.08+6.05%signal
90short2025-03-20 00:00 @ 86,792.442025-03-28 12:00 @ 85,231.048d 12h$37.49+1.73%signal
91long2025-03-29 12:00 @ 82,271.552025-04-10 00:00 @ 82,571.3811d 12h$2.99+0.14%signal
92short2025-04-21 12:00 @ 86,919.112025-05-05 00:00 @ 94,249.0513d 12h−$186.92-8.59%signal
93short2025-05-08 12:00 @ 99,350.032025-05-17 12:00 @ 102,964.699d−$75.84-3.56%signal
94short2025-05-19 00:00 @ 106,386.222025-05-19 12:00 @ 102,932.6812h$66.70+3.16%signal
95short2025-05-21 00:00 @ 106,778.642025-05-29 00:00 @ 107,744.648d−$17.78-0.84%signal
96long2025-05-31 00:00 @ 103,970.692025-06-07 12:00 @ 105,073.487d 12h$19.37+0.91%signal
97short2025-06-09 12:00 @ 107,686.262025-06-13 00:00 @ 105,630.523d 12h$39.82+1.87%signal
98long2025-06-22 00:00 @ 102,100.222025-06-24 00:00 @ 105,269.942d$63.82+2.98%signal
99short2025-07-03 12:00 @ 109,529.192025-07-20 00:00 @ 117,837.8616d 12h−$157.68-7.32%signal
100long2025-07-25 12:00 @ 116,527.902025-07-28 00:00 @ 119,399.622d 12h$48.48+2.29%signal
101long2025-08-01 00:00 @ 115,720.442025-08-07 12:00 @ 116,445.816d 12h$9.03+0.42%signal
102short2025-08-10 12:00 @ 118,272.242025-08-16 00:00 @ 117,302.565d 12h$18.30+0.86%signal
103long2025-08-20 00:00 @ 112,846.662025-08-23 00:00 @ 116,874.123d$72.90+3.42%signal
104long2025-08-26 00:00 @ 110,086.112025-09-03 00:00 @ 111,165.668d$15.90+0.74%signal
105short2025-09-11 00:00 @ 113,874.022025-09-21 00:00 @ 115,648.1310d−$32.76-1.52%signal
106long2025-09-22 12:00 @ 112,836.562025-09-30 00:00 @ 114,234.257d 12h$22.37+1.04%signal
107short2025-10-01 12:00 @ 116,713.452025-10-11 00:00 @ 112,737.549d 12h$75.82+3.52%signal
108long2025-10-11 12:00 @ 112,247.042025-10-20 12:00 @ 110,947.319d−$26.29-1.21%signal
109short2025-10-26 12:00 @ 113,212.452025-10-30 00:00 @ 110,007.603d 12h$60.48+2.79%signal
110long2025-11-04 00:00 @ 106,565.312025-11-10 12:00 @ 106,115.276d 12h−$13.74-0.63%signal
111long2025-11-14 12:00 @ 96,153.732025-11-27 00:00 @ 90,419.9112d 12h−$135.77-6.24%signal
112long2025-12-16 00:00 @ 86,407.282025-12-21 12:00 @ 88,552.995d 12h$48.66+2.27%signal
113short2026-01-02 12:00 @ 89,440.412026-01-08 12:00 @ 90,210.246d−$18.52-0.86%signal
114short2026-01-14 00:00 @ 95,356.122026-01-19 12:00 @ 93,155.435d 12h$48.75+2.27%signal
115long2026-01-21 00:00 @ 88,408.382026-01-28 12:00 @ 90,018.897d 12h$34.48+1.59%signal
116long2026-01-30 00:00 @ 84,621.622026-02-14 12:00 @ 70,450.7115d 12h−$364.71-16.79%signal
117long2026-02-24 00:00 @ 64,638.732026-02-26 00:00 @ 67,938.912d$103.98+5.00%signal
118short2026-03-04 12:00 @ 71,068.082026-03-07 12:00 @ 67,989.603d$89.49+4.25%signal
119short2026-03-17 00:00 @ 74,831.432026-03-19 00:00 @ 71,217.142d$100.49+4.72%signal
120long2026-03-27 12:00 @ 66,676.632026-04-01 12:00 @ 68,656.275d$62.41+2.90%signal
121short2026-04-06 00:00 @ 68,984.102026-04-20 00:00 @ 73,773.1514d−$155.02-7.14%signal
122short2026-05-05 00:00 @ 79,810.132026-05-13 00:00 @ 80,477.098d−$20.33-0.95%signal
123long2026-05-16 12:00 @ 78,058.112026-05-25 12:00 @ 77,302.749d−$25.11-1.18%signal
124long2026-05-28 00:00 @ 74,432.882026-06-12 00:00 @ 63,585.2815d−$314.11-14.82%signal
125short2026-06-15 00:00 @ 65,688.962026-06-18 12:00 @ 63,952.893d 12h$51.79+2.54%signal
126long2026-06-25 00:00 @ 61,063.412026-07-02 12:00 @ 61,316.837d 12h$4.35+0.21%signal
127short2026-07-05 00:00 @ 63,102.282026-07-13 12:00 @ 62,893.988d 12h$8.24+0.40%signal
128short2026-07-15 00:00 @ 65,001.602026-07-17 12:00 @ 63,285.752d 12h$53.28+2.59%signal
129short2026-07-21 12:00 @ 66,304.642026-07-25 00:00 @ 64,129.323d 12h$66.70+3.22%signal
130long2026-08-01 00:00 @ 62,872.472026-08-04 12:00 @ 63,887.423d 12h$30.33+1.45%signal
131long2026-08-14 12:00 @ 62,850.072026-08-18 00:00 @ 64,491.203d 12h$51.58+2.46%signal
132short2026-08-20 00:00 @ 69,296.242026-08-31 00:00 @ 77,650.1311d−$249.59-11.84%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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