[Famous-Q] Faber 200-bar SMA timing

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 4h · 2021-12-312026-08-31 · 10,227 bars in 1.3ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +63.63% over the same period, against this strategy’s +32.75%.

Net P&L
+32.75%
$3,275.21
Max drawdown
-10.02%
Max run-up
+49.54%
Trades
144
13.9% win rate
Profit factor
1.72
2021-12-31drawdown · worst -10.02%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+21.50%-10.02%8617%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+8.97%-8.52%3110%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-08-31+0.26%-7.04%277%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.72
Sortino
1.04
Calmar
0.62
Return ÷ max drawdown
3.27
CAGR
+6.26%
Exposure
49.7%

Per trade

Expectancy
$22.74 · +0.87%
Average win / loss
$390.27 / −$36.53
Payoff ratio
10.68
Largest win / loss
$1,546.67 / −$203.71
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
21 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-10.02%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
623 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
378 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$412.66
Funding
−$743.30
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
199
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+63.63%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 144 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-7.03%+32.53%+104.99%
Max drawdown-19.59%-10.56%-6.46%

9% of histories lost money, and 57% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -10.02%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

sma200 length
200
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

144 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1long2022-02-04 20:00 @ 40,711.472022-02-18 12:00 @ 40,159.1713d 16h−$42.94-1.72%signal
2long2022-02-18 20:00 @ 40,204.242022-02-19 00:00 @ 39,958.814h−$17.68-0.71%signal
3long2022-02-19 08:00 @ 40,254.152022-02-19 12:00 @ 39,814.844h−$29.61-1.19%signal
4long2022-02-28 16:00 @ 40,800.962022-03-04 16:00 @ 40,686.464d−$11.74-0.47%signal
5long2022-03-09 04:00 @ 41,206.642022-03-10 04:00 @ 40,757.251d−$30.20-1.22%signal
6long2022-03-16 12:00 @ 40,501.002022-04-09 00:00 @ 42,220.6523d 12h$86.98+3.53%signal
7long2022-04-10 20:00 @ 43,225.842022-04-11 00:00 @ 42,131.874h−$65.44-2.63%signal
8long2022-06-06 04:00 @ 31,241.252022-06-07 04:00 @ 29,541.591d−$137.63-5.57%signal
9long2022-06-07 20:00 @ 31,056.612022-06-08 04:00 @ 30,000.008h−$85.58-3.51%signal
10long2022-06-08 08:00 @ 30,554.012022-06-08 12:00 @ 30,393.124h−$15.38-0.64%signal
11long2022-06-08 16:00 @ 30,467.092022-06-08 20:00 @ 30,120.174h−$30.11-1.25%signal
12long2022-06-09 08:00 @ 30,483.502022-06-09 12:00 @ 30,280.644h−$18.62-0.77%signal
13long2022-06-09 16:00 @ 30,291.962022-06-09 20:00 @ 29,997.804h−$25.94-1.08%signal
14long2022-07-15 08:00 @ 20,827.462022-07-16 08:00 @ 20,536.891d−$35.99-1.50%signal
15long2022-07-16 12:00 @ 20,608.822022-07-26 16:00 @ 20,733.4510d 4h$5.81+0.24%signal
16long2022-07-27 00:00 @ 21,245.252022-08-19 04:00 @ 22,754.4523d 4h$157.09+6.58%signal
17long2022-09-10 20:00 @ 21,573.712022-09-13 16:00 @ 20,819.742d 20h−$88.94-3.67%signal
18long2022-09-27 04:00 @ 20,096.022022-09-27 16:00 @ 19,881.3212h−$28.31-1.18%signal
19long2022-10-04 08:00 @ 19,960.992022-10-07 16:00 @ 19,570.193d 8h−$51.71-2.16%signal
20long2022-10-14 04:00 @ 19,810.162022-10-14 08:00 @ 19,629.274h−$24.14-1.01%signal
21long2022-10-17 12:00 @ 19,456.692022-10-18 16:00 @ 19,360.231d 4h−$14.79-0.62%signal
22long2022-10-23 20:00 @ 19,496.202022-10-24 08:00 @ 19,314.5412h−$24.72-1.04%signal
23long2022-10-24 12:00 @ 19,416.382022-10-24 16:00 @ 19,287.944h−$18.02-0.76%signal
24long2022-10-24 20:00 @ 19,339.772022-10-25 00:00 @ 19,314.244h−$5.48-0.23%signal
25long2022-10-25 16:00 @ 19,744.252022-11-08 08:00 @ 19,781.6413d 16h−$1.54-0.07%signal
26long2022-12-08 20:00 @ 17,245.352022-12-17 00:00 @ 16,620.788d 4h−$90.06-3.81%signal
27long2022-12-20 16:00 @ 16,914.182022-12-21 08:00 @ 16,805.7416h−$17.49-0.75%signal
28long2022-12-21 12:00 @ 16,875.772022-12-21 20:00 @ 16,743.558h−$20.79-0.89%signal
29long2022-12-22 04:00 @ 16,847.872022-12-22 08:00 @ 16,816.644h−$6.65-0.29%signal
30long2022-12-23 08:00 @ 16,845.372022-12-23 16:00 @ 16,822.638h−$5.70-0.24%signal
31long2022-12-23 20:00 @ 16,841.872022-12-24 00:00 @ 16,772.944h−$11.84-0.51%signal
32long2022-12-27 00:00 @ 16,916.182022-12-27 04:00 @ 16,864.734h−$9.59-0.41%signal
33long2023-01-06 20:00 @ 16,936.092023-02-10 16:00 @ 21,644.5734d 20h$612.68+26.40%signal
34long2023-02-10 20:00 @ 21,768.352023-02-11 00:00 @ 21,614.284h−$19.98-0.81%signal
35long2023-02-15 12:00 @ 22,437.492023-02-24 20:00 @ 23,167.679d 8h$70.73+2.86%signal
36long2023-02-26 12:00 @ 23,248.852023-02-28 08:00 @ 23,218.761d 20h−$6.36-0.26%signal
37long2023-02-28 12:00 @ 23,386.182023-02-28 20:00 @ 23,246.458h−$17.47-0.70%signal
38long2023-03-01 04:00 @ 23,436.292023-03-03 04:00 @ 22,301.942d−$123.86-4.99%signal
39long2023-03-13 16:00 @ 24,013.802023-04-20 16:00 @ 28,486.7038d$434.83+17.75%signal
40long2023-04-26 12:00 @ 28,946.492023-04-26 20:00 @ 27,866.338h−$98.23-3.84%signal
41long2023-04-27 04:00 @ 28,882.382023-05-01 04:00 @ 28,539.894d−$34.19-1.35%signal
42long2023-05-04 00:00 @ 29,024.202023-05-06 16:00 @ 28,552.192d 16h−$45.26-1.79%signal
43long2023-05-07 08:00 @ 28,897.582023-05-07 12:00 @ 28,820.734h−$9.30-0.37%signal
44long2023-05-07 16:00 @ 28,938.892023-05-08 00:00 @ 28,413.828h−$48.21-1.92%signal
45long2023-05-29 00:00 @ 28,061.412023-05-29 16:00 @ 27,616.4816h−$42.61-1.70%signal
46long2023-05-30 00:00 @ 27,727.642023-05-30 16:00 @ 27,659.4716h−$8.99-0.36%signal
47long2023-05-30 20:00 @ 27,841.972023-05-31 08:00 @ 27,144.9712h−$64.77-2.60%signal
48long2023-06-18 20:00 @ 26,646.932023-06-19 00:00 @ 26,324.334h−$32.36-1.31%signal
49long2023-06-19 20:00 @ 26,678.132023-07-18 20:00 @ 29,702.2629d$259.52+10.54%signal
50long2023-07-19 00:00 @ 29,851.672023-07-20 00:00 @ 29,889.521d$0.09+0.00%signal
51long2023-07-20 04:00 @ 29,942.992023-07-20 16:00 @ 29,786.9412h−$15.94-0.63%signal
52long2023-08-08 20:00 @ 29,872.372023-08-09 04:00 @ 29,704.068h−$16.94-0.67%signal
53long2023-08-09 08:00 @ 29,813.762023-08-09 20:00 @ 29,398.4212h−$38.06-1.51%signal
54long2023-09-14 16:00 @ 26,685.342023-09-15 00:00 @ 26,505.008h−$19.34-0.77%signal
55long2023-09-15 04:00 @ 26,608.022023-09-15 12:00 @ 26,410.028h−$21.12-0.84%signal
56long2023-09-16 00:00 @ 26,596.422023-09-25 00:00 @ 26,227.159d−$37.38-1.50%signal
57long2023-09-25 20:00 @ 26,323.862023-09-26 08:00 @ 26,251.0512h−$9.28-0.37%signal
58long2023-09-27 12:00 @ 26,761.052023-09-27 20:00 @ 26,253.358h−$49.71-2.00%signal
59long2023-09-28 00:00 @ 26,364.872023-10-11 16:00 @ 26,763.8513d 16h$33.53+1.35%signal
60long2023-10-12 00:00 @ 26,869.872023-10-12 08:00 @ 26,793.948h−$9.75-0.39%signal
61long2023-10-14 04:00 @ 26,923.582023-10-14 08:00 @ 26,855.034h−$8.80-0.35%signal
62long2023-10-14 16:00 @ 26,933.292023-10-14 20:00 @ 26,846.134h−$10.56-0.43%signal
63long2023-10-15 20:00 @ 27,035.512024-01-03 20:00 @ 42,591.8880d$1,301.27+52.54%signal
64long2024-01-04 00:00 @ 42,858.072024-01-13 00:00 @ 42,780.449d−$15.81-0.56%signal
65long2024-01-29 20:00 @ 42,995.402024-01-31 12:00 @ 42,621.671d 16h−$28.14-1.01%signal
66long2024-01-31 16:00 @ 43,350.572024-02-01 00:00 @ 42,551.998h−$54.46-1.95%signal
67long2024-02-01 20:00 @ 43,214.942024-02-04 08:00 @ 42,814.242d 12h−$30.26-1.09%signal
68long2024-02-04 12:00 @ 43,050.212024-02-04 20:00 @ 42,615.388h−$31.01-1.12%signal
69long2024-02-05 08:00 @ 43,067.512024-02-05 16:00 @ 42,621.178h−$31.65-1.15%signal
70long2024-02-06 08:00 @ 42,878.572024-02-06 12:00 @ 42,805.744h−$7.61-0.28%signal
71long2024-02-06 16:00 @ 43,240.652024-02-07 04:00 @ 42,774.5412h−$32.88-1.19%signal
72long2024-02-07 08:00 @ 42,913.482024-04-02 04:00 @ 66,720.7554d 20h$1,337.50+48.74%signal
73long2024-04-04 20:00 @ 68,497.602024-04-05 08:00 @ 66,924.0112h−$74.06-2.41%signal
74long2024-04-05 16:00 @ 68,213.642024-04-05 20:00 @ 67,386.524h−$40.44-1.32%signal
75long2024-04-06 16:00 @ 68,107.622024-04-12 20:00 @ 66,854.236d 4h−$68.37-2.24%signal
76long2024-05-15 16:00 @ 64,698.342024-06-11 12:00 @ 66,906.2226d 20h$76.66+2.53%signal
77long2024-06-11 20:00 @ 67,433.982024-06-12 00:00 @ 67,307.144h−$8.79-0.29%signal
78long2024-06-12 12:00 @ 67,803.562024-06-12 20:00 @ 67,509.608h−$16.57-0.54%signal
79long2024-06-13 00:00 @ 68,283.952024-06-13 04:00 @ 67,457.614h−$40.18-1.32%signal
80long2024-06-13 08:00 @ 67,738.442024-06-13 16:00 @ 66,451.018h−$61.00-2.01%signal
81long2024-07-15 04:00 @ 62,629.822024-08-02 20:00 @ 62,607.0818d 16h−$13.54-0.45%signal
82long2024-08-23 20:00 @ 63,590.122024-08-28 00:00 @ 59,372.524d 4h−$203.71-6.75%signal
83long2024-09-13 16:00 @ 59,635.522024-09-16 04:00 @ 58,534.692d 12h−$57.51-1.94%signal
84long2024-09-17 12:00 @ 59,066.812024-10-02 20:00 @ 60,142.9715d 8h$43.19+1.46%signal
85long2024-10-03 00:00 @ 60,634.822024-10-09 20:00 @ 61,001.406d 20h$12.72+0.43%signal
86long2024-10-11 16:00 @ 62,230.442024-12-19 20:00 @ 97,152.7769d 4h$1,546.67+52.16%signal
87long2024-12-21 08:00 @ 99,007.802024-12-21 16:00 @ 97,467.108h−$55.53-1.66%signal
88long2024-12-25 00:00 @ 98,646.632024-12-25 04:00 @ 97,980.504h−$26.20-0.78%signal
89long2024-12-25 16:00 @ 98,513.002024-12-26 08:00 @ 97,649.9716h−$33.17-1.00%signal
90long2025-01-03 20:00 @ 98,565.312025-01-04 00:00 @ 98,126.074h−$18.13-0.55%signal
91long2025-01-04 08:00 @ 98,263.852025-01-04 12:00 @ 97,812.234h−$18.89-0.57%signal
92long2025-01-05 08:00 @ 98,244.952025-01-05 12:00 @ 97,589.984h−$25.73-0.78%signal
93long2025-01-06 00:00 @ 98,359.872025-01-07 16:00 @ 97,895.821d 16h−$20.56-0.62%signal
94long2025-01-15 16:00 @ 98,963.092025-02-02 04:00 @ 99,140.9717d 12h−$11.77-0.36%signal
95long2025-02-03 20:00 @ 101,852.272025-02-04 08:00 @ 98,385.4212h−$115.64-3.50%signal
96long2025-03-24 12:00 @ 87,661.132025-03-25 04:00 @ 86,460.0016h−$47.94-1.47%signal
97long2025-03-25 12:00 @ 87,340.862025-03-28 08:00 @ 85,158.062d 20h−$84.60-2.60%signal
98long2025-04-01 16:00 @ 85,262.552025-04-02 04:00 @ 84,492.6012h−$32.51-1.00%signal
99long2025-04-02 16:00 @ 86,726.842025-04-03 00:00 @ 82,468.608h−$161.73-5.01%signal
100long2025-04-11 20:00 @ 83,826.262025-04-12 04:00 @ 82,923.718h−$37.62-1.18%signal
101long2025-04-12 08:00 @ 83,702.142025-04-16 08:00 @ 83,308.344d−$20.08-0.63%signal
102long2025-04-16 12:00 @ 84,025.202025-06-05 20:00 @ 101,852.6350d 8h$650.49+20.49%signal
103long2025-06-06 16:00 @ 105,056.412025-06-06 20:00 @ 104,156.164h−$31.82-0.95%signal
104long2025-06-07 04:00 @ 104,843.362025-06-13 00:00 @ 105,588.285d 20h$18.04+0.54%signal
105long2025-06-14 00:00 @ 106,048.512025-06-14 04:00 @ 105,168.264h−$31.06-0.93%signal
106long2025-06-16 08:00 @ 107,045.202025-06-17 12:00 @ 105,571.781d 4h−$49.60-1.49%signal
107long2025-06-25 00:00 @ 106,056.112025-07-01 20:00 @ 105,319.036d 20h−$28.11-0.85%signal
108long2025-07-02 00:00 @ 105,659.032025-08-01 20:00 @ 113,255.7430d 20h$207.69+6.28%signal
109long2025-08-07 12:00 @ 116,492.392025-08-10 00:00 @ 116,398.822d 12h−$7.45-0.22%signal
110long2025-08-10 04:00 @ 118,503.702025-08-15 16:00 @ 117,193.365d 12h−$45.33-1.35%signal
111long2025-08-16 16:00 @ 117,650.532025-08-17 00:00 @ 117,306.338h−$13.43-0.40%signal
112long2025-08-17 04:00 @ 117,650.832025-08-18 00:00 @ 117,330.4320h−$12.66-0.38%signal
113long2025-08-23 00:00 @ 116,920.882025-08-23 04:00 @ 115,499.504h−$44.24-1.32%signal
114long2025-09-10 16:00 @ 113,824.062025-09-10 20:00 @ 113,502.594h−$13.05-0.39%signal
115long2025-09-11 00:00 @ 113,919.582025-09-22 08:00 @ 112,432.0111d 8h−$51.59-1.55%signal
116long2025-09-23 08:00 @ 113,070.712025-09-23 16:00 @ 112,806.038h−$11.29-0.34%signal
117long2025-09-24 12:00 @ 113,004.602025-09-25 04:00 @ 112,463.2016h−$19.31-0.58%signal
118long2025-09-29 16:00 @ 113,774.752025-10-11 00:00 @ 112,692.4611d 8h−$42.51-1.29%signal
119long2025-10-27 00:00 @ 114,520.802025-10-28 04:00 @ 113,841.231d 4h−$23.93-0.73%signal
120long2025-10-28 08:00 @ 114,151.632025-10-28 20:00 @ 113,606.2712h−$19.34-0.59%signal
121long2025-12-09 20:00 @ 93,780.652025-12-10 00:00 @ 92,619.774h−$43.89-1.34%signal
122long2025-12-22 12:00 @ 89,923.182025-12-22 20:00 @ 87,993.408h−$73.66-2.25%signal
123long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 90,109.522025-12-29 12:00 @ 87,511.598h−$97.31-2.99%signal
124long2026-01-02 12:00 @ 89,476.192026-01-20 20:00 @ 89,676.1618d 8h−$4.43-0.14%signal
125long2026-03-04 12:00 @ 71,096.522026-03-06 16:00 @ 68,454.612d 4h−$123.50-3.83%signal
126long2026-03-09 16:00 @ 68,846.172026-03-22 00:00 @ 68,867.7212d 8h−$0.14-0.00%signal
127long2026-03-22 04:00 @ 69,320.962026-03-22 08:00 @ 68,870.724h−$23.95-0.75%signal
128long2026-03-23 12:00 @ 70,111.222026-03-26 16:00 @ 69,041.093d 4h−$52.61-1.65%signal
129long2026-04-06 12:00 @ 69,597.422026-04-07 00:00 @ 68,804.1412h−$39.39-1.24%signal
130long2026-04-08 00:00 @ 71,904.582026-05-17 04:00 @ 77,974.6039d 4h$271.19+8.56%signal
131long2026-05-17 08:00 @ 78,152.932026-05-17 16:00 @ 77,991.308h−$9.96-0.31%signal
132long2026-05-17 20:00 @ 78,384.572026-05-18 00:00 @ 77,414.914h−$43.21-1.34%signal
133long2026-07-04 20:00 @ 63,280.652026-07-05 04:00 @ 62,726.558h−$31.73-0.98%signal
134long2026-07-05 08:00 @ 63,007.702026-07-05 12:00 @ 62,617.474h−$23.39-0.73%signal
135long2026-07-05 16:00 @ 62,724.442026-07-06 12:00 @ 62,448.7120h−$18.03-0.56%signal
136long2026-07-06 16:00 @ 63,535.702026-07-08 12:00 @ 62,257.551d 20h−$68.85-2.15%signal
137long2026-07-09 08:00 @ 62,986.192026-07-13 16:00 @ 62,584.184d 8h−$26.01-0.82%signal
138long2026-07-14 12:00 @ 62,822.862026-07-17 08:00 @ 62,780.242d 20h−$7.09-0.22%signal
139long2026-07-17 12:00 @ 63,285.752026-07-31 16:00 @ 62,682.7614d 4h−$40.82-1.28%signal
140long2026-08-03 20:00 @ 63,849.672026-08-04 00:00 @ 63,484.404h−$21.28-0.67%signal
141long2026-08-04 12:00 @ 63,912.982026-08-10 20:00 @ 64,004.406d 8h−$1.69-0.05%signal
142long2026-08-11 12:00 @ 64,371.272026-08-11 16:00 @ 63,572.584h−$42.38-1.34%signal
143long2026-08-17 20:00 @ 64,293.262026-08-18 04:00 @ 64,134.678h−$11.08-0.35%signal
144long2026-08-18 12:00 @ 64,338.972026-08-31 20:00 @ 78,533.8913d 8h$678.81+21.56%end of data

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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