[Mine-Q] Trend + momentum ensemble

public
@djgambhir

1000SHIBUSDT · 12h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 3,409 bars in 5.5ms

Net P&L
+2.82%
$282.07
Max drawdown
-40.32%
Max run-up
+93.34%
Trades
136
35.3% win rate
Profit factor
1.02
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -40.32%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+20.84%-37.21%7043%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-4.27%-15.90%3027%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-11.12%-12.82%3628%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.13
Sortino
0.21
Calmar
0.01
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.07
CAGR
+0.60%
Exposure
74.4%

Per trade

Expectancy
$2.07 · +0.35%
Average win / loss
$263.39 / −$140.46
Payoff ratio
1.88
Largest win / loss
$3,525.80 / −$636.26
Longest losing streak(winning: 4)
16 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-40.32%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
910 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$362.81
Funding
−$699.05
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
202
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-84.56%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 136 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-45.95%-2.44%+106.28%
Max drawdown-51.55%-31.03%-17.45%

53% of histories lost money, and 24% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -40.32%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

ema200 length
200
ema50 length
50
roc20 length
20
macd fast length
12
macd slow length
26
macd signal length
9
atr14 length
14
Long entry: roc20 > ▢
0
Long entry: macd.hist > ▢
0
Short entry: roc20 < ▢
0
Short entry: macd.hist < ▢
0
Stop loss (× atr14)
3
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

1000SHIBUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

136 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1short2022-01-01 12:00 @ 0.032022-02-07 00:00 @ 0.0336d 12h$384.80+15.39%signal
2long2022-02-08 00:00 @ 0.032022-02-18 00:00 @ 0.0310d−$350.48-13.50%reverse
3short2022-02-18 12:00 @ 0.032022-02-19 00:00 @ 0.0312h$54.22+2.16%signal
4short2022-02-19 12:00 @ 0.032022-03-02 00:00 @ 0.0310d 12h$45.94+1.82%signal
5short2022-03-05 12:00 @ 0.022022-03-20 00:00 @ 0.0214d 12h−$14.37-0.57%signal
6long2022-03-29 12:00 @ 0.032022-04-07 00:00 @ 0.028d 12h−$346.60-13.70%signal
7short2022-04-07 12:00 @ 0.032022-04-12 12:00 @ 0.035d−$420.58-17.21%stop loss
8long2022-04-13 00:00 @ 0.032022-04-18 00:00 @ 0.025d−$205.48-8.79%signal
9short2022-04-18 12:00 @ 0.022022-04-20 00:00 @ 0.031d 12h−$124.07-5.43%signal
10short2022-04-22 12:00 @ 0.022022-06-22 00:00 @ 0.0160d 12h$1,253.14+55.55%signal
11short2022-07-02 00:00 @ 0.012022-07-04 12:00 @ 0.012d 12h−$83.24-3.24%signal
12short2022-07-05 00:00 @ 0.012022-07-06 00:00 @ 0.011d$33.23+1.30%signal
13short2022-07-06 12:00 @ 0.012022-07-07 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$35.05-1.37%signal
14short2022-07-13 00:00 @ 0.012022-07-14 00:00 @ 0.011d−$167.58-6.58%signal
15short2022-07-14 12:00 @ 0.012022-07-15 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$101.80-4.06%signal
16short2022-07-26 00:00 @ 0.012022-07-28 00:00 @ 0.012d−$196.12-7.91%signal
17short2022-07-29 00:00 @ 0.012022-07-29 12:00 @ 0.0112h$33.00+1.36%signal
18long2022-08-14 12:00 @ 0.022022-08-19 00:00 @ 0.014d 12h−$401.64-16.46%stop loss
19short2022-08-24 12:00 @ 0.012022-08-25 12:00 @ 0.011d−$277.31-11.85%signal
20short2022-08-26 12:00 @ 0.012022-09-04 12:00 @ 0.019d$50.40+2.22%signal
21long2022-09-11 00:00 @ 0.012022-09-14 00:00 @ 0.013d−$203.84-8.93%signal
22short2022-09-14 12:00 @ 0.012022-10-05 00:00 @ 0.0120d 12h$87.24+3.91%signal
23short2022-10-09 00:00 @ 0.012022-10-26 12:00 @ 0.0117d 12h$94.32+4.19%signal
24long2022-10-29 00:00 @ 0.012022-11-08 12:00 @ 0.0110d 12h−$161.06-7.07%signal
25short2022-11-09 00:00 @ 0.012022-12-05 12:00 @ 0.0126d 12h$62.82+2.81%signal
26short2022-12-07 12:00 @ 0.012023-01-05 12:00 @ 0.0129d$154.04+6.84%signal
27long2023-01-13 12:00 @ 0.012023-02-10 00:00 @ 0.0127d 12h$556.13+24.27%signal
28long2023-02-20 00:00 @ 0.012023-02-25 00:00 @ 0.015d−$151.22-6.22%signal
29short2023-03-03 12:00 @ 0.012023-03-18 12:00 @ 0.0115d$9.95+0.42%reverse
30short2023-03-28 00:00 @ 0.012023-04-02 00:00 @ 0.015d−$178.79-7.47%signal
31long2023-04-02 12:00 @ 0.012023-04-03 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$83.83-3.57%signal
32long2023-04-04 00:00 @ 0.012023-04-07 00:00 @ 0.013d−$61.12-2.62%signal
33short2023-04-12 00:00 @ 0.012023-04-13 00:00 @ 0.011d$12.58+0.54%signal
34long2023-04-15 00:00 @ 0.012023-04-19 12:00 @ 0.014d 12h−$70.34-3.04%signal
35short2023-04-20 00:00 @ 0.012023-06-22 12:00 @ 0.0163d 12h$654.24+28.45%signal
36short2023-07-02 12:00 @ 0.012023-07-03 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$26.94-1.09%signal
37short2023-07-05 12:00 @ 0.012023-07-09 00:00 @ 0.013d 12h−$51.66-2.10%signal
38short2023-07-19 12:00 @ 0.012023-07-20 00:00 @ 0.0112h$1.24+0.05%signal
39short2023-07-24 00:00 @ 0.012023-07-24 12:00 @ 0.0112h$23.54+0.96%signal
40short2023-07-25 00:00 @ 0.012023-07-25 12:00 @ 0.0112h−$40.60-1.66%signal
41short2023-07-26 00:00 @ 0.012023-07-26 12:00 @ 0.0112h$28.66+1.17%signal
42short2023-07-28 00:00 @ 0.012023-07-28 12:00 @ 0.0112h−$13.35-0.55%signal
43long2023-07-30 00:00 @ 0.012023-08-17 12:00 @ 0.0118d 12h$79.65+3.26%signal
44short2023-08-18 00:00 @ 0.012023-10-02 00:00 @ 0.0145d$147.85+6.00%signal
45short2023-10-04 12:00 @ 0.012023-10-23 00:00 @ 0.0118d 12h$33.04+1.32%signal
46long2023-10-26 00:00 @ 0.012023-11-21 12:00 @ 0.0126d 12h$115.56+4.61%signal
47short2023-11-22 00:00 @ 0.012023-11-25 12:00 @ 0.013d 12h−$187.14-7.38%signal
48long2023-12-01 12:00 @ 0.012024-01-04 00:00 @ 0.0133d 12h$258.15+10.37%signal
49short2024-01-08 00:00 @ 0.012024-01-11 00:00 @ 0.013d−$274.62-10.75%signal
50long2024-01-14 00:00 @ 0.012024-01-14 12:00 @ 0.0112h−$5.48-0.22%signal
51long2024-01-15 12:00 @ 0.012024-01-16 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$43.42-1.75%signal
52long2024-01-16 12:00 @ 0.012024-01-17 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$0.13-0.01%signal
53short2024-01-19 00:00 @ 0.012024-02-09 00:00 @ 0.0121d$11.31+0.46%signal
54long2024-02-09 12:00 @ 0.012024-02-21 12:00 @ 0.0112d−$27.88-1.13%signal
55long2024-02-27 00:00 @ 0.012024-03-19 12:00 @ 0.0321d 12h$3,525.80+142.75%signal
56long2024-03-26 12:00 @ 0.032024-04-02 12:00 @ 0.037d−$545.05-16.26%signal
57long2024-04-12 12:00 @ 0.032024-04-12 12:00 @ 0.020m−$636.26-19.79%stop loss
58long2024-04-23 00:00 @ 0.032024-04-25 00:00 @ 0.032d−$140.11-4.58%signal
59long2024-04-25 12:00 @ 0.032024-04-26 00:00 @ 0.0312h$79.73+2.64%signal
60long2024-04-26 12:00 @ 0.032024-04-27 00:00 @ 0.0312h−$37.04-1.22%signal
61short2024-05-01 12:00 @ 0.022024-05-04 12:00 @ 0.033d−$605.41-19.97%signal
62long2024-05-13 12:00 @ 0.022024-05-14 00:00 @ 0.0212h−$9.73-0.34%signal
63long2024-05-16 00:00 @ 0.032024-05-20 00:00 @ 0.024d−$166.14-5.77%signal
64long2024-05-20 12:00 @ 0.022024-05-24 12:00 @ 0.024d$21.42+0.76%signal
65long2024-05-28 12:00 @ 0.032024-06-02 12:00 @ 0.035d−$121.18-4.26%signal
66long2024-06-06 12:00 @ 0.032024-06-07 12:00 @ 0.021d−$396.15-14.09%stop loss
67short2024-06-09 00:00 @ 0.022024-07-15 00:00 @ 0.0236d$656.54+24.21%signal
68short2024-07-24 00:00 @ 0.022024-08-24 00:00 @ 0.0231d$284.41+9.89%signal
69short2024-09-01 00:00 @ 0.012024-09-14 00:00 @ 0.0113d−$30.06-1.02%signal
70long2024-09-26 12:00 @ 0.022024-10-23 12:00 @ 0.0227d$88.35+3.00%signal
71short2024-10-26 00:00 @ 0.022024-10-29 00:00 @ 0.023d−$307.93-10.40%signal
72long2024-10-30 00:00 @ 0.022024-11-01 12:00 @ 0.022d 12h−$242.16-8.39%signal
73short2024-11-03 12:00 @ 0.022024-11-05 12:00 @ 0.022d−$173.94-6.16%signal
74long2024-11-06 12:00 @ 0.022024-12-10 00:00 @ 0.0333d 12h$1,114.58+40.08%signal
75short2024-12-20 00:00 @ 0.022025-01-02 12:00 @ 0.0213d 12h−$175.81-5.75%reverse
76long2025-01-03 00:00 @ 0.022025-01-03 12:00 @ 0.0212h$36.47+1.21%signal
77long2025-01-04 00:00 @ 0.022025-01-08 00:00 @ 0.024d−$335.84-11.10%signal
78short2025-01-08 12:00 @ 0.022025-01-16 00:00 @ 0.027d 12h−$167.30-5.69%signal
79long2025-01-17 12:00 @ 0.022025-01-19 00:00 @ 0.021d 12h−$429.28-14.81%stop loss
80short2025-01-20 00:00 @ 0.022025-03-25 00:00 @ 0.0164d$929.00+33.28%signal
81short2025-03-29 12:00 @ 0.012025-04-13 00:00 @ 0.0114d 12h$20.48+0.68%signal
82short2025-05-03 00:00 @ 0.012025-05-03 12:00 @ 0.0112h$70.09+2.31%signal
83short2025-05-04 00:00 @ 0.012025-05-08 12:00 @ 0.014d 12h−$114.72-3.77%signal
84long2025-05-09 00:00 @ 0.012025-05-17 12:00 @ 0.018d 12h−$49.63-1.64%signal
85short2025-05-19 12:00 @ 0.012025-05-20 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$109.44-3.64%signal
86short2025-05-20 12:00 @ 0.012025-05-21 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$74.39-2.50%signal
87short2025-05-21 12:00 @ 0.012025-05-22 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$61.80-2.09%signal
88short2025-05-24 00:00 @ 0.012025-05-24 12:00 @ 0.0112h−$38.11-1.29%signal
89short2025-05-25 00:00 @ 0.012025-05-26 00:00 @ 0.011d−$24.47-0.83%signal
90short2025-05-26 12:00 @ 0.012025-05-27 12:00 @ 0.011d−$6.46-0.22%signal
91short2025-05-28 12:00 @ 0.012025-05-29 12:00 @ 0.011d−$28.61-0.98%signal
92short2025-05-30 00:00 @ 0.012025-07-03 12:00 @ 0.0134d 12h$396.27+13.57%signal
93long2025-07-11 00:00 @ 0.012025-07-29 00:00 @ 0.0118d−$21.18-0.70%signal
94short2025-07-29 12:00 @ 0.012025-08-09 00:00 @ 0.0110d 12h$14.81+0.49%signal
95long2025-08-09 12:00 @ 0.012025-08-12 00:00 @ 0.012d 12h−$183.00-6.07%signal
96long2025-08-13 00:00 @ 0.012025-08-15 00:00 @ 0.012d−$151.94-5.11%signal
97short2025-08-18 12:00 @ 0.012025-08-23 00:00 @ 0.014d 12h−$205.58-7.01%signal
98short2025-08-26 00:00 @ 0.012025-09-08 12:00 @ 0.0113d 12h−$166.26-5.77%signal
99long2025-09-09 12:00 @ 0.012025-09-19 12:00 @ 0.0110d−$17.55-0.62%signal
100short2025-09-20 00:00 @ 0.012025-10-02 12:00 @ 0.0112d 12h$54.44+1.92%signal
101long2025-10-07 00:00 @ 0.012025-10-08 00:00 @ 0.011d−$151.45-5.31%signal
102short2025-10-11 00:00 @ 0.012025-11-08 12:00 @ 0.0128d 12h−$122.60-4.36%signal
103short2025-11-16 00:00 @ 0.012025-12-03 12:00 @ 0.0117d 12h$34.44+1.24%signal
104short2025-12-08 00:00 @ 0.012025-12-10 00:00 @ 0.012d−$132.64-4.75%signal
105short2025-12-13 00:00 @ 0.012026-01-03 00:00 @ 0.0121d$33.01+1.20%signal
106long2026-01-06 00:00 @ 0.012026-01-14 12:00 @ 0.018d 12h−$179.37-6.49%reverse
107short2026-01-15 00:00 @ 0.012026-01-15 12:00 @ 0.0112h$49.08+1.80%signal
108short2026-01-16 00:00 @ 0.012026-01-16 12:00 @ 0.0112h−$16.56-0.61%signal
109short2026-01-17 00:00 @ 0.012026-01-17 12:00 @ 0.0112h$17.81+0.65%signal
110short2026-01-18 00:00 @ 0.012026-01-18 12:00 @ 0.0112h$25.37+0.93%signal
111short2026-01-19 00:00 @ 0.012026-02-15 00:00 @ 0.0127d$352.75+12.88%signal
112short2026-02-24 00:00 @ 0.012026-03-12 12:00 @ 0.0116d 12h−$16.69-0.59%signal
113short2026-03-22 12:00 @ 0.012026-03-23 12:00 @ 0.011d−$137.66-4.88%signal
114short2026-03-27 00:00 @ 0.012026-03-30 12:00 @ 0.013d 12h−$67.13-2.41%signal
115short2026-03-31 00:00 @ 0.012026-04-01 00:00 @ 0.011d−$15.33-0.55%signal
116short2026-04-02 12:00 @ 0.012026-04-03 12:00 @ 0.011d−$110.47-3.99%signal
117short2026-04-05 12:00 @ 0.012026-04-06 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$88.67-3.24%signal
118short2026-04-07 12:00 @ 0.012026-04-08 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$146.37-5.38%signal
119short2026-04-09 12:00 @ 0.012026-04-11 00:00 @ 0.011d 12h−$59.19-2.21%signal
120short2026-04-11 12:00 @ 0.012026-04-12 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$23.56-0.88%signal
121short2026-04-12 12:00 @ 0.012026-04-14 00:00 @ 0.011d 12h−$90.50-3.40%signal
122short2026-04-15 00:00 @ 0.012026-04-16 00:00 @ 0.011d−$69.57-2.64%signal
123short2026-04-20 00:00 @ 0.012026-04-20 12:00 @ 0.0112h−$50.79-1.94%signal
124short2026-04-27 12:00 @ 0.012026-04-28 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$10.69-0.41%signal
125short2026-04-28 12:00 @ 0.012026-04-29 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$24.56-0.94%signal
126short2026-05-04 12:00 @ 0.012026-05-05 00:00 @ 0.0112h−$8.44-0.32%signal
127long2026-05-06 12:00 @ 0.012026-05-14 00:00 @ 0.017d 12h−$98.17-3.78%signal
128short2026-05-15 12:00 @ 0.012026-07-26 00:00 @ 0.0071d 12h$543.88+21.14%signal
129long2026-07-26 12:00 @ 0.012026-07-28 00:00 @ 0.001d 12h−$356.74-13.17%stop loss
130long2026-08-04 12:00 @ 0.012026-08-05 12:00 @ 0.001d−$81.75-3.12%reverse
131short2026-08-06 00:00 @ 0.002026-08-06 12:00 @ 0.0012h$98.42+3.79%signal
132short2026-08-07 00:00 @ 0.002026-08-08 12:00 @ 0.001d 12h$7.84+0.30%signal
133short2026-08-09 00:00 @ 0.002026-08-10 12:00 @ 0.001d 12h−$42.96-1.64%signal
134short2026-08-11 00:00 @ 0.002026-08-15 00:00 @ 0.004d−$68.58-2.62%signal
135short2026-08-15 12:00 @ 0.002026-08-20 00:00 @ 0.004d 12h−$111.79-4.30%signal
136long2026-08-20 12:00 @ 0.002026-08-31 00:00 @ 0.0010d 12h$2.53+0.10%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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