[Mine-Q] Trend + momentum ensemble

public
@djgambhir

LTCUSDT · 12h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 3,399 bars in 3.5ms

Net P&L
-33.38%
−$3,337.67
Max drawdown
-47.91%
Max run-up
+22.92%
Trades
148
26.4% win rate
Profit factor
0.69
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -47.91%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-23.83%-36.33%10026%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-9.43%-28.92%2631%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-3.43%-12.86%2223%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.46
Sortino
-0.66
Calmar
-0.17
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.70
CAGR
-8.34%
Exposure
69.5%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$22.55 · -0.98%
Average win / loss
$189.25 / −$98.33
Payoff ratio
1.92
Largest win / loss
$1,069.02 / −$547.99
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
11 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-47.91%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
1541 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$315.69
Funding
−$275.56
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
202
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-66.72%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 148 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-58.10%-34.84%+7.04%
Max drawdown-60.62%-42.56%-22.53%

92% of histories lost money, and 32% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -47.91%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

ema200 length
200
ema50 length
50
roc20 length
20
macd fast length
12
macd slow length
26
macd signal length
9
atr14 length
14
Long entry: roc20 > ▢
0
Long entry: macd.hist > ▢
0
Short entry: roc20 < ▢
0
Short entry: macd.hist < ▢
0
Stop loss (× atr14)
3
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

LTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

148 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
148long2026-08-21 00:00 @ 47.792026-08-31 00:00 @ 47.8910d−$2.73-0.16%signal
147short2026-08-15 00:00 @ 43.812026-08-19 12:00 @ 45.904d 12h−$81.78-4.85%stop loss
146short2026-07-29 00:00 @ 46.172026-08-06 00:00 @ 45.308d$30.48+1.82%signal
145short2026-07-13 12:00 @ 43.362026-07-15 00:00 @ 45.381d 12h−$80.72-4.75%signal
144short2026-05-16 12:00 @ 55.892026-07-04 00:00 @ 44.8148d 12h$321.34+19.85%signal
143long2026-05-11 00:00 @ 60.392026-05-13 12:00 @ 56.422d 12h−$110.47-6.71%stop loss
142short2026-05-03 12:00 @ 55.132026-05-05 12:00 @ 55.522d−$13.19-0.80%signal
141short2026-05-02 12:00 @ 55.172026-05-03 00:00 @ 55.3512h−$7.10-0.43%signal
140short2026-05-01 12:00 @ 55.112026-05-02 00:00 @ 55.3712h−$9.55-0.58%signal
139short2026-04-28 12:00 @ 54.942026-04-29 00:00 @ 55.7012h−$24.53-1.48%signal
138short2026-04-27 12:00 @ 55.382026-04-28 00:00 @ 55.5412h−$6.43-0.39%signal
137short2026-04-20 00:00 @ 54.002026-04-20 12:00 @ 54.8612h−$28.13-1.69%signal
136short2026-04-13 12:00 @ 52.752026-04-14 00:00 @ 54.6012h−$60.99-3.62%signal
135short2026-03-26 12:00 @ 54.562026-04-06 12:00 @ 54.3411d$5.20+0.31%signal
134short2026-03-22 00:00 @ 54.742026-03-24 00:00 @ 55.702d−$31.70-1.88%signal
133short2026-03-08 00:00 @ 53.532026-03-13 12:00 @ 55.905d 12h−$77.38-4.53%signal
132short2026-01-12 00:00 @ 78.742026-02-26 00:00 @ 56.7445d$447.49+28.00%signal
131short2025-11-18 00:00 @ 91.182025-12-28 00:00 @ 80.3040d$187.31+12.07%signal
130long2025-11-09 00:00 @ 106.912025-11-13 00:00 @ 97.544d−$141.72-8.93%signal
129short2025-11-03 12:00 @ 91.662025-11-08 00:00 @ 101.864d 12h−$183.71-11.25%signal
128short2025-10-11 00:00 @ 96.772025-10-28 12:00 @ 102.1617d 12h−$91.91-5.55%signal
127long2025-10-02 00:00 @ 115.082025-10-10 12:00 @ 104.308d 12h−$164.75-9.71%stop loss
126short2025-09-22 12:00 @ 105.552025-10-01 12:00 @ 110.349d−$77.33-4.51%signal
125long2025-09-19 00:00 @ 118.172025-09-20 00:00 @ 113.931d−$64.32-3.71%signal
124long2025-09-10 12:00 @ 112.972025-09-15 12:00 @ 113.815d$9.07+0.52%signal
123long2025-09-09 00:00 @ 112.712025-09-10 00:00 @ 111.861d−$15.14-0.87%signal
122long2025-09-07 12:00 @ 114.162025-09-08 12:00 @ 113.271d−$15.62-0.90%signal
121long2025-09-05 00:00 @ 111.012025-09-05 12:00 @ 112.8212h$26.26+1.52%signal
120long2025-07-10 00:00 @ 90.622025-08-18 12:00 @ 116.2939d 12h$437.30+26.96%signal
119long2025-07-03 12:00 @ 91.322025-07-08 00:00 @ 85.984d 12h−$98.83-6.00%signal
118short2025-06-13 12:00 @ 84.152025-06-29 00:00 @ 86.2815d 12h−$40.41-2.44%signal
117long2025-06-11 00:00 @ 93.292025-06-12 12:00 @ 88.101d 12h−$95.79-5.70%signal
116short2025-05-30 00:00 @ 93.122025-06-10 12:00 @ 91.5811d 12h$28.75+1.72%signal
115long2025-05-08 12:00 @ 92.102025-05-20 12:00 @ 93.3512d$16.08+0.96%signal
114short2025-05-06 00:00 @ 83.172025-05-06 12:00 @ 92.6212h−$197.39-11.49%stop loss
113short2025-03-04 00:00 @ 109.802025-04-21 12:00 @ 80.1848d 12h$439.37+27.31%signal
112long2025-02-11 12:00 @ 128.012025-02-25 00:00 @ 114.6613d 12h−$177.71-10.75%signal
111short2025-02-03 12:00 @ 97.202025-02-10 12:00 @ 117.907d−$371.62-21.28%signal
110long2025-01-30 12:00 @ 128.762025-02-02 12:00 @ 113.803d−$212.29-11.80%signal
109long2025-01-16 00:00 @ 116.952025-01-23 12:00 @ 112.317d 12h−$78.34-4.31%signal
108short2025-01-13 12:00 @ 93.912025-01-15 12:00 @ 108.822d−$302.13-15.95%stop loss
107long2025-01-03 12:00 @ 107.492025-01-08 00:00 @ 102.654d 12h−$90.82-4.74%signal
106long2025-01-02 00:00 @ 105.202025-01-03 00:00 @ 105.061d−$5.09-0.27%signal
105long2025-01-01 00:00 @ 103.252025-01-01 12:00 @ 103.6712h$5.50+0.29%signal
104long2024-12-30 12:00 @ 102.212024-12-31 00:00 @ 99.3312h−$56.51-2.93%signal
103short2024-12-20 12:00 @ 86.752024-12-26 00:00 @ 109.805d 12h−$547.99-26.50%signal
102long2024-11-07 12:00 @ 70.762024-12-19 00:00 @ 108.2841d 12h$906.61+49.23%signal
101short2024-11-03 12:00 @ 67.182024-11-06 12:00 @ 70.293d−$86.69-4.65%signal
100long2024-10-16 00:00 @ 70.862024-10-26 00:00 @ 68.7910d−$62.64-3.33%signal
99short2024-10-10 00:00 @ 64.552024-10-12 12:00 @ 66.332d 12h−$53.26-2.81%signal
98short2024-10-02 00:00 @ 63.352024-10-06 00:00 @ 66.274d−$89.15-4.66%signal
97long2024-09-23 00:00 @ 68.672024-10-01 12:00 @ 63.648d 12h−$149.32-7.65%stop loss
96short2024-09-08 12:00 @ 61.892024-09-14 00:00 @ 64.905d 12h−$98.15-4.97%signal
95short2024-08-26 00:00 @ 64.762024-08-31 00:00 @ 64.915d−$6.14-0.31%signal
94short2024-07-31 12:00 @ 71.692024-08-15 12:00 @ 65.2415d$175.68+9.08%signal
93short2024-07-28 12:00 @ 71.612024-07-29 12:00 @ 75.791d−$116.13-5.92%signal
92short2024-07-27 12:00 @ 71.422024-07-28 00:00 @ 71.3012h$1.30+0.07%signal
91short2024-07-25 12:00 @ 68.522024-07-27 00:00 @ 71.281d 12h−$81.60-4.12%signal
90short2024-07-04 12:00 @ 69.622024-07-16 00:00 @ 72.2711d 12h−$76.89-3.84%signal
89short2024-06-08 00:00 @ 80.132024-07-03 00:00 @ 76.0325d$111.25+5.63%signal
88long2024-06-06 00:00 @ 85.512024-06-07 12:00 @ 80.221d 12h−$128.00-6.38%stop loss
87short2024-06-01 00:00 @ 83.232024-06-05 12:00 @ 84.134d 12h−$20.11-1.00%signal
86short2024-05-30 12:00 @ 83.142024-05-31 00:00 @ 84.5112h−$34.96-1.73%signal
85long2024-05-24 00:00 @ 85.502024-05-27 00:00 @ 83.943d−$40.73-2.01%signal
84long2024-05-21 00:00 @ 88.692024-05-23 12:00 @ 81.972d 12h−$160.56-7.75%stop loss
83long2024-05-18 00:00 @ 84.142024-05-20 00:00 @ 82.352d−$47.44-2.28%signal
82short2024-05-14 12:00 @ 80.112024-05-17 12:00 @ 83.013d−$76.48-3.64%signal
81short2024-04-30 12:00 @ 79.642024-05-10 12:00 @ 83.3810d−$97.09-4.57%reverse
80long2024-04-29 00:00 @ 83.972024-04-29 12:00 @ 83.4412h−$15.82-0.74%signal
79long2024-04-28 00:00 @ 83.862024-04-28 12:00 @ 83.9512h$0.47+0.02%signal
78long2024-04-27 00:00 @ 88.052024-04-27 12:00 @ 85.1512h−$73.09-3.40%signal
77long2024-04-26 00:00 @ 83.752024-04-26 12:00 @ 85.2012h$34.81+1.63%signal
76long2024-04-24 12:00 @ 86.702024-04-25 00:00 @ 83.1712h−$90.19-4.17%signal
75short2024-04-14 00:00 @ 77.302024-04-24 00:00 @ 85.0010d−$217.92-9.83%reverse
74long2024-03-25 12:00 @ 88.862024-04-11 12:00 @ 96.0117d$140.40+6.44%signal
73long2024-02-27 00:00 @ 72.042024-03-17 00:00 @ 84.1419d$272.86+12.91%signal
72long2024-02-26 00:00 @ 70.252024-02-26 12:00 @ 69.5712h−$24.80-1.17%signal
71short2024-02-21 00:00 @ 69.692024-02-24 12:00 @ 69.923d 12h−$5.12-0.24%signal
70long2024-02-09 00:00 @ 70.522024-02-14 00:00 @ 68.965d−$52.77-2.47%signal
69short2024-01-23 00:00 @ 67.362024-02-04 00:00 @ 68.8312d−$41.50-1.94%signal
68long2024-01-20 12:00 @ 71.162024-01-22 12:00 @ 69.462d−$55.21-2.56%signal
67long2024-01-12 12:00 @ 75.182024-01-15 00:00 @ 69.812d 12h−$160.55-7.31%signal
66short2024-01-04 00:00 @ 65.222024-01-11 00:00 @ 70.127d−$166.06-7.42%signal
65long2023-12-25 12:00 @ 72.422024-01-01 00:00 @ 72.886d 12h−$5.29-0.24%signal
64long2023-12-23 12:00 @ 72.102023-12-25 00:00 @ 71.161d 12h−$34.80-1.55%signal
63short2023-12-18 00:00 @ 71.222023-12-23 00:00 @ 73.685d−$73.20-3.23%signal
62short2023-12-16 00:00 @ 70.972023-12-17 12:00 @ 72.681d 12h−$56.14-2.46%signal
61long2023-12-01 12:00 @ 71.112023-12-12 12:00 @ 72.4611d$28.47+1.25%signal
60short2023-11-18 00:00 @ 70.272023-11-25 00:00 @ 70.747d−$13.07-0.57%signal
59long2023-11-05 12:00 @ 71.512023-11-17 12:00 @ 70.7012d−$40.09-1.75%signal
58long2023-10-24 12:00 @ 70.372023-11-03 12:00 @ 68.6410d−$67.05-2.91%reverse
57short2023-10-09 12:00 @ 63.082023-10-20 12:00 @ 63.3911d−$10.27-0.45%signal
56short2023-10-04 12:00 @ 64.382023-10-07 00:00 @ 65.472d 12h−$41.23-1.78%signal
55short2023-09-28 00:00 @ 63.502023-09-29 00:00 @ 65.181d−$63.71-2.73%signal
54short2023-09-26 00:00 @ 64.302023-09-27 12:00 @ 65.331d 12h−$39.05-1.67%signal
53short2023-08-03 00:00 @ 87.462023-09-16 00:00 @ 65.8644d$549.30+24.90%signal
52long2023-08-02 00:00 @ 93.942023-08-02 12:00 @ 91.2212h−$66.91-3.01%signal
51long2023-07-30 00:00 @ 94.292023-08-01 00:00 @ 92.202d−$52.90-2.37%signal
50long2023-07-28 12:00 @ 91.102023-07-29 00:00 @ 91.3712h$4.26+0.19%signal
49short2023-07-24 12:00 @ 88.992023-07-27 12:00 @ 91.183d−$56.88-2.53%reverse
48long2023-06-30 12:00 @ 100.792023-07-15 00:00 @ 95.0514d 12h−$139.50-6.11%signal
47long2023-06-23 12:00 @ 86.332023-06-29 00:00 @ 82.955d 12h−$96.13-4.17%signal
46short2023-06-08 12:00 @ 87.932023-06-21 12:00 @ 84.3113d$95.41+4.18%signal
45short2023-06-06 12:00 @ 87.452023-06-07 00:00 @ 90.9012h−$93.13-4.04%signal
44long2023-05-29 12:00 @ 91.652023-06-05 12:00 @ 84.117d−$201.08-8.53%stop loss
43short2023-05-25 12:00 @ 84.802023-05-28 00:00 @ 88.522d 12h−$105.23-4.41%signal
42long2023-05-16 12:00 @ 89.322023-05-24 12:00 @ 86.328d−$87.54-3.64%signal
41short2023-05-07 00:00 @ 83.212023-05-15 12:00 @ 86.588d 12h−$97.42-4.01%signal
40long2023-05-05 00:00 @ 88.362023-05-05 12:00 @ 88.0112h−$12.39-0.51%signal
39long2023-05-04 00:00 @ 88.872023-05-04 12:00 @ 88.1512h−$22.55-0.92%signal
38long2023-04-30 00:00 @ 91.072023-04-30 12:00 @ 90.4312h−$19.88-0.81%signal
37short2023-04-22 00:00 @ 85.262023-04-26 12:00 @ 91.874d 12h−$193.75-7.77%signal
36long2023-03-23 00:00 @ 87.252023-04-20 00:00 @ 90.4028d$69.19+2.80%signal
35long2023-03-20 00:00 @ 84.012023-03-20 12:00 @ 81.6012h−$74.27-2.98%signal
34long2023-03-18 12:00 @ 86.942023-03-19 00:00 @ 82.9912h−$117.16-4.64%signal
33short2023-03-09 00:00 @ 82.692023-03-18 00:00 @ 85.499d−$85.09-3.34%signal
32long2023-03-02 00:00 @ 97.752023-03-03 00:00 @ 88.951d−$237.79-9.13%stop loss
31long2023-02-16 00:00 @ 102.842023-02-21 12:00 @ 93.205d 12h−$256.93-9.63%signal
30long2022-12-31 12:00 @ 68.382023-02-10 00:00 @ 91.9940d 12h$812.14+32.95%signal
29long2022-12-30 12:00 @ 66.572022-12-31 00:00 @ 67.9112h$46.63+1.90%signal
28long2022-12-29 12:00 @ 66.782022-12-30 00:00 @ 66.6112h−$8.84-0.36%signal
27long2022-12-28 12:00 @ 67.402022-12-29 00:00 @ 66.2712h−$44.28-1.80%signal
26long2022-12-27 00:00 @ 70.742022-12-28 00:00 @ 68.611d−$77.99-3.14%signal
25short2022-12-17 12:00 @ 63.372022-12-26 12:00 @ 70.509d−$289.30-11.31%signal
24long2022-11-19 00:00 @ 62.612022-12-16 00:00 @ 72.4027d$370.03+15.01%signal
23short2022-11-13 12:00 @ 57.642022-11-17 12:00 @ 59.514d−$81.69-3.29%signal
22short2022-11-10 00:00 @ 50.632022-11-11 00:00 @ 60.541d−$515.45-19.71%signal
21long2022-11-02 12:00 @ 59.162022-11-09 00:00 @ 57.736d 12h−$69.78-2.65%signal
20short2022-10-09 00:00 @ 52.742022-10-24 00:00 @ 54.0115d−$61.43-2.32%signal
19short2022-09-16 00:00 @ 56.302022-10-04 12:00 @ 54.7218d 12h$74.04+2.82%signal
18short2022-09-15 00:00 @ 60.132022-09-15 12:00 @ 59.6512h$18.21+0.69%signal
17long2022-09-11 00:00 @ 63.272022-09-14 12:00 @ 59.233d 12h−$174.51-6.54%reverse
16short2022-08-19 00:00 @ 59.972022-09-02 00:00 @ 57.5514d$105.07+3.98%signal
15short2022-08-18 00:00 @ 60.482022-08-18 12:00 @ 61.2912h−$38.33-1.45%signal
14short2022-08-15 12:00 @ 61.002022-08-16 00:00 @ 60.6212h$13.67+0.52%signal
13short2022-08-10 12:00 @ 58.992022-08-11 00:00 @ 61.5812h−$120.24-4.49%signal
12short2022-08-09 12:00 @ 59.852022-08-10 00:00 @ 59.1212h$29.77+1.11%signal
11short2022-08-04 00:00 @ 57.692022-08-04 12:00 @ 58.4712h−$38.76-1.45%signal
10short2022-07-27 00:00 @ 53.832022-07-28 00:00 @ 59.001d−$266.70-9.71%signal
9short2022-07-12 00:00 @ 48.642022-07-17 00:00 @ 55.065d−$377.50-13.28%signal
8short2022-06-30 00:00 @ 53.632022-07-10 00:00 @ 54.0610d−$20.78-0.73%signal
7short2022-05-07 00:00 @ 96.632022-06-25 12:00 @ 56.3349d 12h$1,069.02+41.44%signal
6short2022-04-23 12:00 @ 106.682022-05-05 00:00 @ 106.2411d 12h$11.10+0.43%signal
5short2022-04-06 12:00 @ 118.642022-04-20 00:00 @ 113.7913d 12h$103.91+4.07%signal
4long2022-03-28 12:00 @ 131.422022-04-06 00:00 @ 122.686d 12h−$179.96-6.93%reverse
3short2022-02-17 12:00 @ 125.132022-03-17 00:00 @ 111.2124d 12h$266.62+10.54%signal
2short2022-01-21 12:00 @ 124.702022-02-05 00:00 @ 121.2714d 12h$65.32+2.60%signal
1short2022-01-01 12:00 @ 147.392022-01-15 00:00 @ 144.7413d 12h$51.14+2.05%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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