[Mine-Q] Trend + momentum ensemble

public
@djgambhir

XRPUSDT · 12h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 3,399 bars in 7.9ms

Underperformed the market. Holding XRPUSDT returned +64.72% over the same period, against this strategy’s +2.72%.

Net P&L
+2.72%
$271.78
Max drawdown
-43.28%
Max run-up
+104.92%
Trades
147
29.3% win rate
Profit factor
1.02
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -43.28%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-35.73%-43.28%9426%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+46.10%-31.40%3033%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01+9.39%-6.15%2339%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.13
Sortino
0.19
Calmar
0.01
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.06
CAGR
+0.58%
Exposure
70.0%

Per trade

Expectancy
$1.85 · +0.55%
Average win / loss
$266.51 / −$107.58
Payoff ratio
2.48
Largest win / loss
$4,062.21 / −$542.03
Longest losing streak(winning: 4)
9 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-43.28%
Longest time under water
898 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
898 days
Under water at the end
637 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$341.42
Funding
−$367.08
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
202
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+64.72%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 147 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-53.89%-6.94%+188.75%
Max drawdown-57.65%-37.47%-19.57%

54% of histories lost money, and 33% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -43.28%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

ema200 length
200
ema50 length
50
roc20 length
20
macd fast length
12
macd slow length
26
macd signal length
9
atr14 length
14
Long entry: roc20 > ▢
0
Long entry: macd.hist > ▢
0
Short entry: roc20 < ▢
0
Short entry: macd.hist < ▢
0
Stop loss (× atr14)
3
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

XRPUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

147 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
147long2026-08-20 12:00 @ 1.192026-09-01 00:00 @ 1.3811d 12h$386.35+15.63%end of data
146short2026-07-28 00:00 @ 1.072026-08-19 12:00 @ 1.1322d 12h−$158.33-6.31%stop loss
145short2026-07-25 00:00 @ 1.092026-07-27 00:00 @ 1.112d−$52.92-2.10%signal
144short2026-07-17 12:00 @ 1.082026-07-21 00:00 @ 1.113d 12h−$68.02-2.68%signal
143short2026-07-15 12:00 @ 1.112026-07-16 00:00 @ 1.1112h−$14.53-0.57%signal
142short2026-07-13 00:00 @ 1.092026-07-15 00:00 @ 1.112d−$64.66-2.52%signal
141short2026-06-19 12:00 @ 1.132026-07-04 00:00 @ 1.1314d 12h−$25.06-0.98%signal
140short2026-05-18 12:00 @ 1.392026-06-15 12:00 @ 1.2328d$276.69+11.08%signal
139short2026-05-16 12:00 @ 1.412026-05-17 12:00 @ 1.421d−$24.22-0.97%signal
138short2026-05-04 00:00 @ 1.392026-05-05 12:00 @ 1.411d 12h−$39.98-1.59%signal
137short2026-04-28 00:00 @ 1.402026-05-03 12:00 @ 1.395d 12h$5.55+0.22%signal
136short2026-04-27 00:00 @ 1.432026-04-27 12:00 @ 1.4112h$27.00+1.08%signal
135short2026-03-26 00:00 @ 1.412026-04-08 00:00 @ 1.3813d$55.21+2.22%signal
134short2026-03-23 12:00 @ 1.412026-03-24 00:00 @ 1.4312h−$40.91-1.63%signal
133short2026-01-18 12:00 @ 2.052026-03-13 12:00 @ 1.4254d$703.48+30.24%signal
132short2026-01-17 12:00 @ 2.062026-01-18 00:00 @ 2.0612h−$5.11-0.22%signal
131short2026-01-16 12:00 @ 2.062026-01-17 00:00 @ 2.0712h−$6.53-0.28%signal
130short2026-01-15 12:00 @ 2.112026-01-16 00:00 @ 2.0812h$33.49+1.44%signal
129long2026-01-06 00:00 @ 2.352026-01-08 00:00 @ 2.142d−$218.66-9.20%stop loss
128short2025-11-16 00:00 @ 2.242026-01-03 00:00 @ 2.0148d$233.33+10.07%signal
127short2025-10-31 00:00 @ 2.442025-11-10 12:00 @ 2.5410d 12h−$100.94-4.31%signal
126short2025-10-09 12:00 @ 2.822025-10-26 00:00 @ 2.6016d 12h$185.37+8.07%signal
125long2025-10-02 12:00 @ 2.972025-10-08 00:00 @ 2.855d 12h−$99.47-4.29%signal
124short2025-09-22 12:00 @ 2.812025-10-01 12:00 @ 2.949d−$105.55-4.50%signal
123long2025-09-09 00:00 @ 2.972025-09-20 12:00 @ 2.9911d 12h$5.58+0.24%signal
122short2025-09-02 00:00 @ 2.762025-09-08 12:00 @ 2.946d 12h−$153.59-6.44%signal
121long2025-08-28 12:00 @ 3.012025-08-29 00:00 @ 2.9612h−$36.84-1.54%signal
120long2025-08-08 00:00 @ 3.322025-08-15 00:00 @ 3.087d−$184.36-7.56%signal
119long2025-07-03 00:00 @ 2.232025-08-01 12:00 @ 2.9729d 12h$717.46+31.74%signal
118long2025-07-01 00:00 @ 2.242025-07-02 00:00 @ 2.171d−$70.04-3.07%signal
117short2025-06-18 00:00 @ 2.162025-06-24 12:00 @ 2.186d 12h−$28.30-1.24%signal
116short2025-06-13 12:00 @ 2.152025-06-16 12:00 @ 2.243d−$100.28-4.34%signal
115long2025-06-09 12:00 @ 2.272025-06-12 12:00 @ 2.223d−$49.02-2.11%signal
114short2025-05-30 00:00 @ 2.242025-06-09 00:00 @ 2.2710d−$23.86-1.02%signal
113long2025-05-09 00:00 @ 2.332025-05-24 00:00 @ 2.2915d−$42.18-1.80%signal
112short2025-05-05 00:00 @ 2.152025-05-08 12:00 @ 2.213d 12h−$60.52-2.57%signal
111short2025-05-03 12:00 @ 2.192025-05-04 00:00 @ 2.1912h−$1.84-0.08%signal
110long2025-04-23 12:00 @ 2.262025-05-03 00:00 @ 2.219d 12h−$59.25-2.50%reverse
109short2025-03-28 12:00 @ 2.222025-04-13 00:00 @ 2.1615d 12h$61.07+2.59%signal
108long2025-03-23 12:00 @ 2.402025-03-27 00:00 @ 2.353d 12h−$59.93-2.53%signal
107long2025-03-19 12:00 @ 2.342025-03-23 00:00 @ 2.373d 12h$31.90+1.35%signal
106short2025-03-10 00:00 @ 2.142025-03-15 12:00 @ 2.425d 12h−$332.72-13.61%signal
105long2025-03-08 12:00 @ 2.322025-03-09 00:00 @ 2.3212h$6.00+0.25%signal
104long2025-03-06 12:00 @ 2.612025-03-08 00:00 @ 2.381d 12h−$219.02-8.77%signal
103long2025-03-03 00:00 @ 2.942025-03-03 12:00 @ 2.3412h−$542.03-20.59%stop loss
102short2025-02-25 00:00 @ 2.282025-03-02 12:00 @ 2.705d 12h−$511.90-18.54%stop loss
101long2025-02-19 12:00 @ 2.612025-02-21 12:00 @ 2.652d$34.30+1.25%signal
100long2025-02-18 12:00 @ 2.572025-02-19 00:00 @ 2.5612h−$15.45-0.56%signal
99long2025-02-14 12:00 @ 2.732025-02-18 00:00 @ 2.663d 12h−$78.94-2.84%signal
98long2025-02-13 12:00 @ 2.442025-02-14 00:00 @ 2.5612h$125.34+4.57%signal
97long2025-01-02 00:00 @ 2.332025-01-27 12:00 @ 2.7925d 12h$487.66+18.59%signal
96long2024-11-07 12:00 @ 0.552024-12-20 12:00 @ 1.9743d$4,062.21+252.75%signal
95short2024-10-23 00:00 @ 0.532024-11-06 12:00 @ 0.5314d 12h$1.68+0.10%signal
94short2024-10-03 00:00 @ 0.542024-10-17 12:00 @ 0.5514d 12h−$40.31-2.49%signal
93long2024-09-14 00:00 @ 0.572024-10-02 12:00 @ 0.5918d 12h$28.30+1.76%signal
92short2024-09-02 00:00 @ 0.552024-09-13 00:00 @ 0.5611d−$47.40-2.92%signal
91long2024-08-20 00:00 @ 0.602024-08-28 00:00 @ 0.578d−$90.98-5.53%signal
90long2024-08-12 12:00 @ 0.582024-08-16 00:00 @ 0.563d 12h−$47.49-2.87%signal
89long2024-08-08 12:00 @ 0.622024-08-12 00:00 @ 0.553d 12h−$175.35-10.31%signal
88short2024-08-05 00:00 @ 0.522024-08-07 12:00 @ 0.632d 12h−$356.41-19.92%stop loss
87long2024-07-13 12:00 @ 0.512024-08-03 00:00 @ 0.5620d 12h$162.53+9.30%signal
86short2024-06-08 00:00 @ 0.502024-07-12 12:00 @ 0.4734d 12h$106.99+6.21%signal
85short2024-05-31 00:00 @ 0.522024-06-05 00:00 @ 0.535d−$22.16-1.28%signal
84short2024-05-12 00:00 @ 0.512024-05-18 00:00 @ 0.526d−$59.94-3.44%signal
83short2024-04-30 12:00 @ 0.502024-05-04 12:00 @ 0.534d−$134.96-7.60%signal
82short2024-04-13 00:00 @ 0.552024-04-23 00:00 @ 0.5610d−$29.22-1.64%signal
81long2024-04-12 12:00 @ 0.612024-04-12 12:00 @ 0.530m−$253.41-13.72%stop loss
80short2024-04-02 12:00 @ 0.592024-04-09 00:00 @ 0.626d 12h−$81.61-4.37%signal
79long2024-03-29 12:00 @ 0.632024-04-01 12:00 @ 0.613d−$72.17-3.83%signal
78long2024-03-25 12:00 @ 0.632024-03-28 00:00 @ 0.612d 12h−$51.50-2.71%signal
77long2024-02-29 00:00 @ 0.582024-03-17 00:00 @ 0.6017d$29.53+1.56%signal
76long2024-02-28 00:00 @ 0.592024-02-28 12:00 @ 0.5312h−$176.81-9.14%stop loss
75short2024-02-26 12:00 @ 0.532024-02-27 00:00 @ 0.5512h−$76.38-3.91%signal
74short2024-02-25 12:00 @ 0.542024-02-26 00:00 @ 0.5412h$4.50+0.23%signal
73long2024-02-16 12:00 @ 0.572024-02-21 12:00 @ 0.545d−$122.07-6.15%signal
72short2024-01-19 00:00 @ 0.552024-02-11 12:00 @ 0.5323d 12h$76.84+3.91%signal
71short2024-01-04 00:00 @ 0.582024-01-11 00:00 @ 0.607d−$63.03-3.18%signal
70long2023-12-27 12:00 @ 0.632023-12-30 00:00 @ 0.622d 12h−$26.33-1.33%signal
69long2023-12-25 12:00 @ 0.642023-12-27 00:00 @ 0.621d 12h−$69.79-3.48%signal
68long2023-12-22 12:00 @ 0.622023-12-23 12:00 @ 0.621d−$26.32-1.31%signal
67short2023-12-18 12:00 @ 0.592023-12-22 00:00 @ 0.623d 12h−$120.38-5.90%signal
66long2023-12-07 00:00 @ 0.642023-12-11 12:00 @ 0.634d 12h−$55.98-2.72%signal
65long2023-12-05 00:00 @ 0.632023-12-05 12:00 @ 0.6112h−$49.22-2.38%signal
64long2023-12-03 00:00 @ 0.622023-12-04 00:00 @ 0.581d−$159.09-7.55%stop loss
63long2023-12-02 00:00 @ 0.612023-12-02 12:00 @ 0.6112h$0.06+0.00%signal
62long2023-11-29 12:00 @ 0.612023-11-30 00:00 @ 0.6112h−$10.75-0.51%signal
61long2023-11-27 00:00 @ 0.622023-11-27 12:00 @ 0.6012h−$45.01-2.12%signal
60long2023-10-23 12:00 @ 0.532023-11-17 00:00 @ 0.6124d 12h$283.35+13.82%signal
59short2023-10-09 12:00 @ 0.502023-10-20 00:00 @ 0.5210d 12h−$91.05-4.39%signal
58long2023-10-04 00:00 @ 0.542023-10-09 00:00 @ 0.495d−$184.41-8.70%stop loss
57short2023-08-18 00:00 @ 0.512023-09-20 00:00 @ 0.5133d−$31.20-1.47%signal
56long2023-07-15 00:00 @ 0.722023-08-03 12:00 @ 0.6719d 12h−$171.37-7.90%signal
55long2023-07-14 00:00 @ 0.822023-07-14 12:00 @ 0.6712h−$415.85-18.29%stop loss
54long2023-07-11 12:00 @ 0.472023-07-12 00:00 @ 0.4712h$3.30+0.15%signal
53short2023-07-07 00:00 @ 0.462023-07-11 00:00 @ 0.484d−$80.64-3.52%reverse
52long2023-07-05 00:00 @ 0.492023-07-05 12:00 @ 0.4812h−$48.11-2.09%signal
51short2023-06-29 00:00 @ 0.462023-07-04 00:00 @ 0.495d−$125.01-5.35%signal
50long2023-06-26 00:00 @ 0.492023-06-26 12:00 @ 0.4812h−$39.93-1.70%signal
49long2023-06-25 00:00 @ 0.492023-06-25 12:00 @ 0.4912h$23.66+1.01%signal
48short2023-06-16 12:00 @ 0.462023-06-22 00:00 @ 0.505d 12h−$199.48-8.35%signal
47long2023-06-13 12:00 @ 0.562023-06-14 12:00 @ 0.491d−$330.38-13.36%stop loss
46long2023-05-27 00:00 @ 0.472023-06-10 12:00 @ 0.5014d 12h$127.90+5.24%signal
45long2023-05-19 00:00 @ 0.462023-05-25 00:00 @ 0.456d−$42.47-1.73%signal
44short2023-05-08 12:00 @ 0.442023-05-18 12:00 @ 0.4710d−$169.21-6.79%signal
43long2023-05-05 12:00 @ 0.462023-05-06 00:00 @ 0.4712h$27.53+1.11%signal
42long2023-05-02 00:00 @ 0.462023-05-02 12:00 @ 0.4612h−$25.19-1.01%signal
41long2023-03-21 12:00 @ 0.392023-04-20 00:00 @ 0.4929d 12h$584.33+24.90%signal
40long2023-03-19 12:00 @ 0.392023-03-21 00:00 @ 0.371d 12h−$126.83-5.33%signal
39short2023-03-11 00:00 @ 0.372023-03-17 12:00 @ 0.386d 12h−$47.20-1.97%signal
38long2023-03-09 00:00 @ 0.392023-03-10 00:00 @ 0.371d−$118.52-4.90%signal
37short2023-02-25 00:00 @ 0.382023-03-08 12:00 @ 0.3911d 12h−$53.42-2.20%signal
36long2023-02-23 00:00 @ 0.402023-02-23 12:00 @ 0.3912h−$39.09-1.60%signal
35long2023-02-22 00:00 @ 0.392023-02-22 12:00 @ 0.3912h−$10.77-0.44%signal
34long2023-02-20 12:00 @ 0.392023-02-21 12:00 @ 0.391d−$20.99-0.86%signal
33long2023-02-16 12:00 @ 0.402023-02-17 00:00 @ 0.3812h−$90.07-3.64%signal
32short2023-02-10 00:00 @ 0.382023-02-16 00:00 @ 0.406d−$130.54-5.21%signal
31long2023-01-14 00:00 @ 0.392023-02-06 12:00 @ 0.4023d 12h$55.49+2.23%signal
30short2022-12-30 12:00 @ 0.342023-01-11 12:00 @ 0.3612d−$181.87-7.17%signal
29short2022-12-15 12:00 @ 0.382022-12-27 12:00 @ 0.3712d$68.83+2.73%signal
28short2022-12-05 00:00 @ 0.392022-12-14 00:00 @ 0.409d−$46.48-1.84%signal
27short2022-11-09 00:00 @ 0.412022-11-25 00:00 @ 0.4016d$8.02+0.32%signal
26long2022-11-04 12:00 @ 0.492022-11-08 00:00 @ 0.463d 12h−$132.83-5.18%signal
25long2022-10-31 12:00 @ 0.462022-11-01 12:00 @ 0.461d$17.20+0.67%signal
24long2022-10-29 00:00 @ 0.472022-10-31 00:00 @ 0.462d−$92.68-3.59%signal
23long2022-09-20 00:00 @ 0.382022-10-13 12:00 @ 0.4623d 12h$464.03+18.82%signal
22short2022-09-16 00:00 @ 0.332022-09-17 00:00 @ 0.361d−$230.74-9.14%signal
21short2022-08-18 12:00 @ 0.382022-09-09 12:00 @ 0.3522d$171.46+6.91%signal
20short2022-08-15 12:00 @ 0.372022-08-16 00:00 @ 0.3812h−$52.60-2.11%signal
19short2022-08-12 12:00 @ 0.372022-08-13 00:00 @ 0.3812h−$59.44-2.37%signal
18short2022-08-10 12:00 @ 0.362022-08-11 00:00 @ 0.3812h−$120.86-4.76%signal
17short2022-08-09 12:00 @ 0.372022-08-10 00:00 @ 0.3712h$5.08+0.20%signal
16short2022-08-08 00:00 @ 0.372022-08-08 12:00 @ 0.3812h−$73.41-2.87%signal
15short2022-07-28 12:00 @ 0.362022-07-29 00:00 @ 0.3712h−$122.32-4.73%signal
14short2022-07-26 12:00 @ 0.332022-07-28 00:00 @ 0.361d 12h−$230.10-8.70%signal
13short2022-07-13 00:00 @ 0.312022-07-15 12:00 @ 0.332d 12h−$209.51-7.77%signal
12short2022-06-30 12:00 @ 0.312022-07-08 00:00 @ 0.347d 12h−$293.00-10.58%signal
11short2022-04-24 00:00 @ 0.712022-06-24 12:00 @ 0.3761d 12h$1,165.19+47.01%signal
10short2022-04-06 12:00 @ 0.792022-04-15 12:00 @ 0.789d$51.78+2.10%signal
9long2022-03-19 12:00 @ 0.812022-04-06 00:00 @ 0.8215d 12h−$6.37-0.26%signal
8short2022-03-08 00:00 @ 0.722022-03-09 12:00 @ 0.751d 12h−$114.09-4.57%signal
7short2022-03-01 12:00 @ 0.772022-03-02 00:00 @ 0.7812h−$56.28-2.24%signal
6short2022-02-21 12:00 @ 0.772022-03-01 00:00 @ 0.784d 12h−$43.81-1.74%signal
5short2022-02-20 12:00 @ 0.792022-02-21 00:00 @ 0.7812h$41.24+1.64%signal
4short2022-02-19 12:00 @ 0.772022-02-20 00:00 @ 0.8212h−$158.19-6.20%signal
3short2022-02-18 12:00 @ 0.782022-02-19 00:00 @ 0.7812h−$26.39-1.03%signal
2long2022-02-08 12:00 @ 0.862022-02-18 00:00 @ 0.779d 12h−$286.40-10.90%reverse
1short2022-01-01 12:00 @ 0.842022-02-05 12:00 @ 0.6735d$513.09+20.52%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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