[Famous-Q] Time-series momentum (90-bar)

public
@djgambhir

LTCUSDT · 12h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 3,399 bars in 3.1ms

Net P&L
-41.95%
−$4,194.92
Max drawdown
-57.66%
Max run-up
+23.51%
Trades
157
24.8% win rate
Profit factor
0.64
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -57.66%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-30.03%-45.06%9922%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-15.30%-32.73%2631%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-2.05%-12.84%3228%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.55
Sortino
-0.76
Calmar
-0.19
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.73
CAGR
-11.00%
Exposure
95.4%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$26.72 · -1.28%
Average win / loss
$188.59 / −$97.88
Payoff ratio
1.93
Largest win / loss
$1,191.43 / −$447.92
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
19 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-57.66%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
1485 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$307.14
Funding
−$272.84
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
92
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-66.72%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 157 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-63.49%-42.50%-7.23%
Max drawdown-65.46%-47.85%-25.82%

97% of histories lost money, and 21% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -57.66%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

roc90 length
90
Long entry: roc90 > ▢
0
Short entry: roc90 < ▢
0
Long exit: roc90 < ▢
0
Short exit: roc90 > ▢
0
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

LTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

157 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
157long2026-08-19 12:00 @ 44.822026-09-01 00:00 @ 49.0512d 12h$127.52+8.98%end of data
156long2026-08-18 12:00 @ 44.542026-08-19 00:00 @ 44.3512h−$7.45-0.52%signal
155long2026-08-07 00:00 @ 45.432026-08-18 00:00 @ 44.5411d−$30.61-2.14%signal
154long2026-08-06 00:00 @ 45.302026-08-06 12:00 @ 45.0212h−$10.36-0.72%signal
153long2026-08-03 00:00 @ 44.662026-08-05 12:00 @ 44.732d 12h$0.69+0.05%signal
152short2026-07-31 00:00 @ 45.532026-08-02 12:00 @ 44.632d 12h$26.67+1.87%signal
151long2026-07-20 00:00 @ 47.052026-07-30 12:00 @ 45.4310d 12h−$52.93-3.68%signal
150short2026-05-23 12:00 @ 51.942026-07-19 12:00 @ 46.9657d$137.38+9.79%signal
149long2026-05-22 12:00 @ 54.222026-05-23 00:00 @ 52.5912h−$43.92-3.11%signal
148short2026-05-21 12:00 @ 53.472026-05-22 00:00 @ 54.1512h−$19.54-1.38%signal
147long2026-05-06 12:00 @ 57.692026-05-21 00:00 @ 53.9214d 12h−$97.29-6.74%signal
146short2026-04-30 12:00 @ 55.692026-05-06 00:00 @ 56.315d 12h−$17.41-1.20%signal
145long2026-04-28 00:00 @ 55.542026-04-30 00:00 @ 55.272d−$8.88-0.61%signal
144long2026-04-21 12:00 @ 55.432026-04-27 12:00 @ 55.386d−$3.58-0.25%signal
143short2026-04-19 12:00 @ 55.172026-04-21 00:00 @ 55.001d 12h$3.21+0.22%signal
142long2026-04-15 12:00 @ 54.512026-04-19 00:00 @ 55.613d 12h$26.99+1.87%signal
141long2026-04-14 12:00 @ 54.522026-04-15 00:00 @ 54.2412h−$9.06-0.63%signal
140short2026-04-12 12:00 @ 53.822026-04-14 00:00 @ 54.601d 12h−$22.84-1.57%signal
139long2026-04-08 12:00 @ 55.072026-04-12 00:00 @ 55.013d 12h−$3.11-0.21%signal
138short2026-04-07 12:00 @ 53.162026-04-08 00:00 @ 55.3612h−$62.31-4.24%signal
137long2026-04-05 12:00 @ 52.852026-04-07 00:00 @ 53.471d 12h$15.47+1.06%signal
136short2026-03-31 12:00 @ 53.472026-04-05 00:00 @ 53.564d 12h−$3.69-0.25%signal
135long2026-03-23 12:00 @ 54.922026-03-31 00:00 @ 53.307d 12h−$45.38-3.07%signal
134short2026-01-08 00:00 @ 81.642026-03-23 00:00 @ 53.4974d$470.98+34.67%signal
133long2026-01-06 00:00 @ 83.442026-01-07 12:00 @ 82.691d 12h−$13.86-1.02%signal
132short2025-11-11 12:00 @ 102.612026-01-05 12:00 @ 82.0055d$264.60+20.42%signal
131long2025-11-10 12:00 @ 107.102025-11-11 00:00 @ 104.1912h−$36.81-2.82%signal
130short2025-11-09 12:00 @ 101.962025-11-10 00:00 @ 110.2412h−$109.56-8.22%signal
129short2025-10-11 12:00 @ 98.002025-11-09 00:00 @ 106.9128d 12h−$124.02-9.10%signal
128long2025-10-09 12:00 @ 116.612025-10-11 00:00 @ 96.771d 12h−$244.23-17.14%signal
127short2025-10-07 12:00 @ 118.142025-10-09 00:00 @ 118.561d 12h−$6.08-0.43%signal
126long2025-10-03 00:00 @ 119.522025-10-07 00:00 @ 118.234d−$18.47-1.29%signal
125short2025-09-19 12:00 @ 115.702025-10-02 12:00 @ 119.8413d−$50.96-3.53%signal
124long2025-09-11 12:00 @ 116.902025-09-19 00:00 @ 118.137d 12h$11.64+0.81%signal
123short2025-09-09 00:00 @ 112.672025-09-11 00:00 @ 117.612d−$64.99-4.46%signal
122long2025-09-07 12:00 @ 114.162025-09-08 12:00 @ 113.271d−$13.13-0.90%signal
121short2025-09-03 12:00 @ 111.842025-09-07 00:00 @ 112.113d 12h−$4.05-0.28%signal
120long2025-07-14 12:00 @ 96.972025-09-03 00:00 @ 111.6750d 12h$192.91+13.65%signal
119short2025-06-21 12:00 @ 83.162025-07-14 00:00 @ 94.6122d 12h−$197.10-13.48%signal
118long2025-06-20 12:00 @ 85.662025-06-21 00:00 @ 82.8612h−$49.58-3.36%signal
117short2025-06-19 12:00 @ 85.422025-06-20 00:00 @ 85.0912h$4.39+0.30%signal
116short2025-06-16 00:00 @ 86.232025-06-19 00:00 @ 85.063d$19.18+1.31%signal
115long2025-06-14 00:00 @ 86.492025-06-15 12:00 @ 85.281d 12h−$22.42-1.52%signal
114long2025-05-09 12:00 @ 98.722025-06-13 12:00 @ 84.1535d−$236.38-15.42%signal
113short2025-05-07 12:00 @ 91.152025-05-09 00:00 @ 94.951d 12h−$65.60-4.23%signal
112short2025-03-04 00:00 @ 109.802025-05-07 00:00 @ 91.5964d$253.04+17.02%signal
111long2025-02-10 00:00 @ 107.182025-03-03 12:00 @ 116.7221d 12h$122.40+8.41%signal
110short2025-02-07 12:00 @ 104.912025-02-09 12:00 @ 106.472d−$22.43-1.53%signal
109long2025-02-06 00:00 @ 103.322025-02-07 00:00 @ 101.561d−$26.67-1.82%signal
108short2025-02-05 00:00 @ 101.002025-02-05 12:00 @ 106.7212h−$85.76-5.76%signal
107long2025-01-31 00:00 @ 130.102025-02-04 12:00 @ 100.884d 12h−$357.24-22.63%signal
106short2025-01-27 12:00 @ 106.792025-01-30 12:00 @ 128.763d−$343.15-20.61%signal
105long2025-01-24 12:00 @ 117.702025-01-27 00:00 @ 117.022d 12h−$12.39-0.74%signal
104short2025-01-19 00:00 @ 125.322025-01-24 00:00 @ 116.385d$117.58+7.18%signal
103long2025-01-18 00:00 @ 137.052025-01-18 12:00 @ 127.5412h−$117.57-7.05%signal
102short2025-01-17 00:00 @ 124.352025-01-17 12:00 @ 137.0912h−$176.86-10.33%signal
101short2025-01-14 00:00 @ 98.302025-01-16 12:00 @ 118.762d 12h−$376.89-20.87%signal
100long2024-11-06 12:00 @ 70.292025-01-13 12:00 @ 93.9168d$485.54+28.82%signal
99long2024-10-11 00:00 @ 64.272024-11-06 00:00 @ 65.3626d$13.42+0.80%signal
98short2024-10-10 00:00 @ 64.552024-10-10 12:00 @ 64.4312h$1.59+0.09%signal
97short2024-10-08 12:00 @ 65.542024-10-09 12:00 @ 65.671d−$4.68-0.28%signal
96long2024-10-05 12:00 @ 65.512024-10-08 00:00 @ 64.732d 12h−$23.03-1.36%signal
95short2024-10-02 12:00 @ 63.662024-10-05 00:00 @ 64.912d 12h−$34.49-2.03%signal
94long2024-09-19 12:00 @ 65.602024-10-02 00:00 @ 63.3512d 12h−$66.02-3.85%signal
93short2024-08-25 12:00 @ 65.032024-09-19 00:00 @ 64.8224d 12h$6.48+0.38%signal
92long2024-08-24 12:00 @ 66.752024-08-25 00:00 @ 66.5412h−$7.39-0.43%signal
91short2024-08-22 12:00 @ 63.552024-08-24 00:00 @ 66.091d 12h−$70.86-4.09%signal
90short2024-08-21 12:00 @ 62.722024-08-22 00:00 @ 64.2412h−$44.15-2.53%signal
89long2024-08-19 12:00 @ 66.772024-08-21 00:00 @ 64.371d 12h−$65.47-3.72%signal
88short2024-06-16 00:00 @ 79.192024-08-19 00:00 @ 66.3264d$288.59+17.11%signal
87short2024-06-15 00:00 @ 77.542024-06-15 12:00 @ 78.9812h−$32.64-1.93%signal
86short2024-06-08 12:00 @ 79.442024-06-14 12:00 @ 79.826d−$6.60-0.39%signal
85long2024-06-07 12:00 @ 84.522024-06-08 00:00 @ 80.1312h−$91.06-5.30%signal
84long2024-06-06 12:00 @ 85.442024-06-07 00:00 @ 84.2512h−$25.86-1.50%signal
83short2024-06-05 00:00 @ 83.692024-06-06 00:00 @ 85.511d−$38.53-2.22%signal
82long2024-05-29 12:00 @ 83.632024-06-04 12:00 @ 81.846d−$42.59-2.44%signal
81short2024-05-05 12:00 @ 81.102024-05-29 00:00 @ 83.5023d 12h−$42.28-2.41%signal
80long2024-05-04 00:00 @ 81.852024-05-05 00:00 @ 81.581d−$7.73-0.44%signal
79short2024-04-15 00:00 @ 79.662024-05-03 12:00 @ 79.9118d 12h−$0.27-0.02%signal
78long2024-02-28 00:00 @ 74.072024-04-14 12:00 @ 77.7446d 12h−$17.94-1.02%signal
77short2024-02-26 00:00 @ 70.232024-02-27 12:00 @ 75.101d 12h−$121.00-6.75%signal
76long2024-02-18 12:00 @ 70.582024-02-25 12:00 @ 70.037d−$24.97-1.39%signal
75short2024-01-16 00:00 @ 69.122024-02-18 00:00 @ 70.0233d−$6.19-0.34%signal
74long2024-01-11 12:00 @ 73.202024-01-15 12:00 @ 70.544d−$70.22-3.86%signal
73short2024-01-04 12:00 @ 65.162024-01-11 00:00 @ 70.126d 12h−$139.63-7.53%signal
72long2023-12-31 12:00 @ 73.962024-01-04 00:00 @ 65.223d 12h−$234.75-12.28%signal
71long2023-12-28 12:00 @ 77.212023-12-31 00:00 @ 73.282d 12h−$105.73-5.45%signal
70short2023-12-23 12:00 @ 72.082023-12-28 00:00 @ 76.054d 12h−$101.01-5.14%signal
69short2023-12-21 00:00 @ 69.862023-12-23 00:00 @ 73.682d−$106.54-5.35%signal
68long2023-10-21 00:00 @ 63.352023-12-20 12:00 @ 71.1760d 12h$189.22+9.74%signal
67short2023-10-17 12:00 @ 62.852023-10-20 12:00 @ 63.393d−$18.06-0.93%signal
66short2023-10-09 12:00 @ 63.082023-10-17 00:00 @ 63.187d 12h−$3.30-0.17%signal
65short2023-10-08 12:00 @ 65.042023-10-09 00:00 @ 65.3112h−$10.04-0.51%signal
64long2023-10-07 12:00 @ 65.692023-10-08 00:00 @ 65.4012h−$10.74-0.55%signal
63short2023-10-05 00:00 @ 64.352023-10-07 00:00 @ 65.472d−$35.94-1.83%signal
62long2023-10-02 12:00 @ 67.552023-10-04 12:00 @ 64.382d−$95.93-4.83%signal
61short2023-08-13 12:00 @ 82.912023-10-02 00:00 @ 68.1749d 12h$342.02+17.99%signal
60short2023-08-06 00:00 @ 83.032023-08-13 00:00 @ 83.467d−$8.46-0.44%signal
59long2023-07-25 12:00 @ 89.242023-08-05 12:00 @ 82.3011d−$157.35-8.10%signal
58long2023-07-21 00:00 @ 92.352023-07-25 00:00 @ 89.074d−$73.38-3.74%signal
57short2023-07-17 12:00 @ 91.012023-07-20 12:00 @ 94.333d−$72.51-3.66%signal
56long2023-07-01 00:00 @ 108.672023-07-17 00:00 @ 92.8116d−$308.53-15.01%signal
55short2023-06-29 12:00 @ 85.532023-06-30 12:00 @ 100.791d−$385.63-17.92%signal
54long2023-06-22 00:00 @ 85.012023-06-29 00:00 @ 82.957d−$58.99-2.72%signal
53short2023-06-10 00:00 @ 89.242023-06-21 12:00 @ 84.3111d 12h$118.63+5.55%signal
52long2023-06-09 00:00 @ 88.452023-06-09 12:00 @ 88.3912h−$3.87-0.18%signal
51long2023-06-04 00:00 @ 96.052023-06-08 12:00 @ 87.934d 12h−$189.28-8.66%signal
50short2023-05-25 00:00 @ 85.762023-06-03 12:00 @ 96.709d 12h−$283.80-12.58%signal
49long2023-05-22 00:00 @ 92.142023-05-24 12:00 @ 86.322d 12h−$148.63-6.48%signal
48short2023-05-19 12:00 @ 90.952023-05-21 12:00 @ 92.292d−$35.34-1.53%signal
47long2023-05-18 12:00 @ 92.902023-05-19 00:00 @ 90.3812h−$65.34-2.82%signal
46short2023-05-07 12:00 @ 83.462023-05-18 00:00 @ 93.8410d 12h−$295.87-12.36%signal
45long2023-04-22 12:00 @ 85.852023-05-07 00:00 @ 83.2114d 12h−$83.81-3.47%signal
44long2023-04-17 00:00 @ 100.132023-04-22 00:00 @ 85.265d−$378.34-15.08%signal
43short2023-04-16 00:00 @ 96.722023-04-16 12:00 @ 96.6112h$0.88+0.04%signal
42long2023-04-14 12:00 @ 96.972023-04-15 12:00 @ 96.251d−$21.88-0.87%signal
41short2023-04-13 00:00 @ 92.022023-04-14 00:00 @ 94.161d−$60.68-2.40%signal
40long2023-04-11 12:00 @ 95.272023-04-12 12:00 @ 91.361d−$107.88-4.22%signal
39short2023-03-28 12:00 @ 87.452023-04-11 00:00 @ 93.7713d 12h−$183.32-7.05%signal
38long2023-03-27 12:00 @ 92.232023-03-28 00:00 @ 89.1612h−$90.06-3.43%signal
37short2023-03-07 12:00 @ 85.592023-03-27 00:00 @ 93.2919d 12h−$233.04-8.69%signal
36long2023-01-20 00:00 @ 84.202023-03-07 00:00 @ 87.2846d$56.36+2.11%signal
35long2023-01-09 12:00 @ 81.772023-01-19 12:00 @ 82.5310d$13.62+0.51%signal
34short2023-01-08 00:00 @ 76.352023-01-09 00:00 @ 78.701d−$84.44-3.14%signal
33long2022-12-24 00:00 @ 65.722023-01-07 12:00 @ 75.7714d 12h$388.28+15.00%signal
32short2022-12-20 00:00 @ 63.312022-12-23 12:00 @ 65.943d 12h−$110.95-4.24%signal
31long2022-11-10 12:00 @ 53.842022-12-19 12:00 @ 63.5039d$426.54+16.99%signal
30long2022-11-03 00:00 @ 60.912022-11-10 00:00 @ 50.637d−$447.92-17.08%signal
29short2022-10-05 12:00 @ 53.962022-11-02 12:00 @ 59.1628d−$249.51-9.29%signal
28short2022-10-04 12:00 @ 54.702022-10-05 00:00 @ 55.2512h−$29.67-1.10%signal
27short2022-09-18 12:00 @ 56.442022-10-04 00:00 @ 54.1415d 12h$108.28+4.06%signal
26short2022-09-16 12:00 @ 56.092022-09-18 00:00 @ 57.801d 12h−$85.18-3.17%signal
25long2022-09-15 12:00 @ 59.652022-09-16 00:00 @ 56.3012h−$155.88-5.72%signal
24short2022-09-14 12:00 @ 59.232022-09-15 00:00 @ 60.1512h−$45.41-1.66%signal
23long2022-09-12 12:00 @ 61.802022-09-14 00:00 @ 59.031d 12h−$127.73-4.61%signal
22long2022-09-09 00:00 @ 57.942022-09-12 00:00 @ 62.123d$191.14+7.03%signal
21short2022-09-07 12:00 @ 54.132022-09-08 12:00 @ 57.371d−$169.29-6.13%signal
20long2022-09-03 00:00 @ 60.972022-09-07 00:00 @ 54.064d−$326.26-11.47%signal
19short2022-08-31 12:00 @ 54.282022-09-02 12:00 @ 57.432d−$169.60-5.87%signal
18long2022-08-11 00:00 @ 61.582022-08-31 00:00 @ 52.9720d−$426.96-14.26%signal
17long2022-07-27 12:00 @ 53.232022-08-10 12:00 @ 58.9914d$301.80+10.34%signal
16short2022-04-27 00:00 @ 98.482022-07-27 00:00 @ 53.8591d$1,191.43+45.47%signal
15short2022-04-26 00:00 @ 104.482022-04-26 12:00 @ 104.3412h$1.37+0.05%signal
14long2022-04-20 12:00 @ 113.792022-04-25 12:00 @ 101.695d−$290.02-10.77%signal
13short2022-04-19 12:00 @ 110.892022-04-20 00:00 @ 113.7912h−$73.49-2.71%signal
12short2022-04-18 12:00 @ 106.192022-04-19 00:00 @ 111.2112h−$132.90-4.84%signal
11long2022-04-15 00:00 @ 107.342022-04-18 00:00 @ 108.673d$29.19+1.07%signal
10long2022-04-13 12:00 @ 107.082022-04-14 12:00 @ 108.871d$42.53+1.56%signal
9short2022-04-06 00:00 @ 122.682022-04-13 00:00 @ 104.797d$381.36+14.50%signal
8short2022-04-05 00:00 @ 124.682022-04-05 12:00 @ 126.5512h−$41.75-1.58%signal
7long2022-04-04 00:00 @ 128.772022-04-04 12:00 @ 125.3512h−$73.59-2.77%signal
6short2022-03-27 00:00 @ 124.692022-04-03 12:00 @ 126.585d 12h−$38.94-1.46%signal
5long2022-03-19 00:00 @ 111.892022-03-26 12:00 @ 124.257d 12h$279.35+10.75%signal
4long2022-03-17 12:00 @ 109.692022-03-18 12:00 @ 108.911d−$21.68-0.83%signal
3short2022-03-14 00:00 @ 101.572022-03-17 00:00 @ 111.213d−$255.81-9.58%signal
2short2022-03-12 00:00 @ 104.372022-03-13 12:00 @ 105.321d 12h−$26.99-1.01%signal
1short2022-01-01 12:00 @ 147.392022-03-11 12:00 @ 105.8566d$702.94+28.12%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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