[Famous-PA] Darvas box breakout

public
@djgambhir

LINKUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 6.4ms

Net P&L
-8.76%
−$875.83
Max drawdown
-22.26%
Max run-up
+21.99%
Trades
131
26.7% win rate
Profit factor
0.91
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -22.26%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-10.11%-17.21%7729%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+9.51%-11.87%2733%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-7.31%-14.90%2715%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.11
Sortino
-0.16
Calmar
-0.09
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.39
CAGR
-1.95%
Exposure
25.9%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$6.69 · -0.19%
Average win / loss
$242.54 / −$97.55
Payoff ratio
2.49
Largest win / loss
$1,009.14 / −$203.26
Longest losing streak(winning: 4)
10 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-22.26%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
1024 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$310.75
Funding
−$376.66
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
23
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-42.20%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 131 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-37.93%-9.91%+36.91%
Max drawdown-42.75%-26.46%-13.62%

65% of histories lost money, and 66% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -22.26%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh20 length
20
ll10 length
10
volsma length
20
atr14 length
14
Long entry: volume > ▢ × volsma
1.5
Stop loss (× atr14)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

LINKUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

131 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1long2022-01-02 20:00 @ 21.982022-01-13 16:00 @ 25.4710d 20h$385.44+15.42%signal
2long2022-01-30 08:00 @ 17.612022-02-02 12:00 @ 16.263d 4h−$203.26-7.83%stop loss
3long2022-03-01 16:00 @ 15.372022-03-03 16:00 @ 14.692d−$117.44-4.61%signal
4long2022-03-16 04:00 @ 13.802022-03-20 12:00 @ 14.734d 8h$162.42+6.46%signal
5long2022-03-22 04:00 @ 15.542022-04-01 04:00 @ 16.4510d$139.65+5.46%signal
6long2022-04-17 08:00 @ 14.492022-04-17 20:00 @ 13.9012h−$108.62-4.19%stop loss
7long2022-05-04 20:00 @ 12.022022-05-05 12:00 @ 11.2916h−$159.48-6.22%stop loss
8long2022-06-05 16:00 @ 7.562022-06-10 20:00 @ 8.295d 4h$237.75+9.42%signal
9long2022-07-07 16:00 @ 6.602022-07-10 08:00 @ 6.262d 16h−$138.76-5.37%stop loss
10long2022-07-18 12:00 @ 6.942022-07-21 04:00 @ 6.712d 16h−$89.71-3.52%signal
11long2022-07-28 16:00 @ 7.072022-08-01 00:00 @ 7.653d 8h$201.62+7.98%signal
12long2022-08-07 20:00 @ 8.222022-08-14 20:00 @ 8.827d$180.92+7.02%signal
13long2022-08-23 16:00 @ 7.232022-08-26 08:00 @ 6.972d 16h−$97.76-3.73%signal
14long2022-09-02 16:00 @ 7.182022-09-03 16:00 @ 6.731d−$166.84-6.42%stop loss
15long2022-09-09 04:00 @ 7.762022-09-12 16:00 @ 7.723d 12h−$18.08-0.71%signal
16long2022-09-24 20:00 @ 7.792022-09-30 20:00 @ 7.526d−$95.71-3.75%signal
17long2022-10-04 08:00 @ 7.652022-10-07 16:00 @ 7.543d 8h−$38.81-1.54%signal
18long2022-10-25 20:00 @ 7.132022-10-28 00:00 @ 6.892d 4h−$89.67-3.56%signal
19long2022-10-29 20:00 @ 7.542022-11-03 00:00 @ 7.434d 4h−$43.60-1.75%signal
20long2022-11-04 04:00 @ 8.222022-11-07 00:00 @ 8.092d 20h−$43.47-1.75%signal
21long2022-11-22 16:00 @ 6.402022-11-28 04:00 @ 6.735d 12h$124.47+5.03%signal
22long2022-12-27 00:00 @ 6.052022-12-27 12:00 @ 5.9112h−$57.03-2.28%stop loss
23long2023-01-02 08:00 @ 5.682023-01-06 00:00 @ 5.663d 16h−$15.82-0.64%signal
24long2023-01-09 00:00 @ 5.962023-01-25 00:00 @ 6.6616d$271.48+10.92%signal
25long2023-02-09 08:00 @ 7.452023-02-09 20:00 @ 7.0112h−$154.05-6.03%stop loss
26long2023-02-16 00:00 @ 7.282023-02-17 00:00 @ 6.981d−$107.89-4.29%stop loss
27long2023-02-18 00:00 @ 7.652023-02-24 20:00 @ 7.276d 20h−$130.77-5.25%stop loss
28long2023-03-13 16:00 @ 6.762023-03-15 16:00 @ 6.582d−$69.49-2.83%signal
29long2023-03-22 16:00 @ 7.602023-03-22 16:00 @ 7.100m−$163.83-6.72%stop loss
30long2023-03-29 12:00 @ 7.292023-04-02 16:00 @ 7.314d 4h$2.79+0.12%signal
31long2023-04-05 04:00 @ 7.592023-04-05 12:00 @ 7.298h−$98.00-4.08%stop loss
32long2023-04-14 04:00 @ 7.712023-04-20 00:00 @ 7.755d 20h$4.16+0.18%signal
33long2023-04-26 16:00 @ 7.442023-04-26 16:00 @ 7.060m−$122.86-5.17%stop loss
34long2023-05-05 20:00 @ 7.252023-05-06 08:00 @ 7.0312h−$73.62-3.14%stop loss
35long2023-05-15 08:00 @ 6.672023-05-18 16:00 @ 6.473d 8h−$76.92-3.31%stop loss
36long2023-05-23 04:00 @ 6.622023-05-24 00:00 @ 6.4620h−$60.32-2.61%stop loss
37long2023-05-28 04:00 @ 6.522023-05-31 08:00 @ 6.483d 4h−$18.99-0.83%signal
38long2023-06-14 20:00 @ 5.452023-06-14 20:00 @ 5.180m−$114.44-5.00%stop loss
39long2023-06-21 20:00 @ 5.522023-06-28 08:00 @ 5.976d 12h$176.71+7.82%signal
40long2023-06-30 20:00 @ 6.312023-07-05 12:00 @ 6.294d 16h−$12.73-0.55%signal
41long2023-07-10 20:00 @ 6.262023-07-16 20:00 @ 6.616d$122.93+5.34%signal
42long2023-07-18 00:00 @ 7.192023-07-18 16:00 @ 6.8116h−$124.65-5.35%stop loss
43long2023-07-20 12:00 @ 8.332023-07-22 12:00 @ 7.962d−$104.43-4.54%signal
44long2023-08-08 00:00 @ 7.332023-08-11 16:00 @ 7.493d 16h$45.53+2.00%signal
45long2023-08-23 16:00 @ 6.352023-08-24 16:00 @ 6.111d−$92.14-4.03%stop loss
46long2023-08-29 16:00 @ 6.192023-08-30 12:00 @ 5.9620h−$82.85-3.66%stop loss
47long2023-09-06 04:00 @ 6.202023-09-10 04:00 @ 6.114d−$37.85-1.69%signal
48long2023-09-18 04:00 @ 6.622023-09-21 12:00 @ 6.703d 8h$23.88+1.07%signal
49long2023-09-25 16:00 @ 7.392023-10-01 20:00 @ 7.846d 4h$131.54+5.88%signal
50long2023-10-20 12:00 @ 7.612023-11-01 12:00 @ 10.8812d$963.73+42.45%signal
51long2023-11-05 04:00 @ 12.412023-11-14 00:00 @ 14.378d 20h$379.29+15.10%signal
52long2023-12-02 08:00 @ 15.752023-12-04 08:00 @ 15.092d−$115.24-4.42%stop loss
53long2023-12-08 16:00 @ 16.712023-12-10 12:00 @ 15.941d 20h−$127.59-4.95%signal
54long2023-12-23 16:00 @ 15.842023-12-26 16:00 @ 15.033d−$142.85-5.61%stop loss
55long2023-12-27 16:00 @ 16.162023-12-29 20:00 @ 15.152d 4h−$169.88-6.77%stop loss
56long2024-01-02 04:00 @ 15.722024-01-03 08:00 @ 14.991d 4h−$119.42-4.84%stop loss
57long2024-01-11 00:00 @ 15.082024-01-12 16:00 @ 14.001d 16h−$178.10-7.31%stop loss
58long2024-01-15 04:00 @ 15.592024-01-18 16:00 @ 14.593d 12h−$159.20-6.65%stop loss
59long2024-01-29 04:00 @ 14.712024-02-07 00:00 @ 18.298d 20h$561.37+23.86%signal
60long2024-02-11 04:00 @ 19.632024-02-16 16:00 @ 19.515d 12h−$23.10-0.93%signal
61long2024-02-26 20:00 @ 19.232024-02-28 16:00 @ 18.511d 20h−$102.56-4.12%stop loss
62long2024-03-11 00:00 @ 21.712024-03-12 08:00 @ 20.241d 8h−$175.96-7.15%stop loss
63long2024-03-25 16:00 @ 19.332024-03-27 16:00 @ 19.162d−$28.25-1.17%signal
64long2024-04-08 12:00 @ 18.622024-04-09 00:00 @ 17.8712h−$99.61-4.13%stop loss
65long2024-04-22 04:00 @ 15.832024-04-24 12:00 @ 14.932d 8h−$137.58-5.77%stop loss
66long2024-05-06 12:00 @ 15.032024-05-07 00:00 @ 14.4212h−$97.80-4.16%stop loss
67long2024-05-16 20:00 @ 14.992024-05-23 16:00 @ 16.126d 20h$168.91+7.26%signal
68long2024-05-27 20:00 @ 18.602024-05-31 00:00 @ 17.953d 4h−$88.91-3.75%signal
69long2024-07-08 12:00 @ 13.482024-07-11 04:00 @ 12.612d 16h−$153.43-6.54%signal
70long2024-07-16 00:00 @ 14.382024-07-16 08:00 @ 13.848h−$90.02-3.90%stop loss
71long2024-07-21 16:00 @ 14.442024-07-22 20:00 @ 13.781d 4h−$107.36-4.70%stop loss
72long2024-08-21 20:00 @ 11.122024-08-27 00:00 @ 11.835d 4h$139.45+6.17%signal
73long2024-09-13 12:00 @ 10.932024-09-15 12:00 @ 11.162d$44.03+1.92%signal
74long2024-09-20 08:00 @ 11.692024-09-21 04:00 @ 11.2520h−$90.68-3.93%stop loss
75long2024-09-25 00:00 @ 12.152024-09-30 04:00 @ 12.265d 4h$14.25+0.62%signal
76long2024-10-07 04:00 @ 11.602024-10-07 20:00 @ 11.1716h−$87.30-3.82%stop loss
77long2024-10-14 16:00 @ 11.262024-10-17 12:00 @ 10.942d 20h−$68.91-3.04%signal
78long2024-10-20 16:00 @ 11.892024-10-23 08:00 @ 11.492d 16h−$80.15-3.57%stop loss
79long2024-10-30 16:00 @ 12.222024-10-31 16:00 @ 11.681d−$101.66-4.56%stop loss
80long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 11.692024-11-13 04:00 @ 13.417d$310.78+14.12%signal
81long2024-11-18 16:00 @ 15.182024-11-20 20:00 @ 14.172d 4h−$155.04-6.80%signal
82long2024-11-23 00:00 @ 16.592024-12-09 16:00 @ 24.4116d 16h$1,009.14+45.04%signal
83long2024-12-12 08:00 @ 28.842024-12-17 16:00 @ 27.615d 8h−$113.45-4.55%signal
84long2025-01-03 16:00 @ 23.462025-01-07 12:00 @ 22.143d 20h−$143.39-5.82%stop loss
85long2025-01-15 16:00 @ 21.602025-01-19 12:00 @ 22.403d 20h$84.18+3.47%signal
86long2025-01-31 16:00 @ 25.902025-02-01 16:00 @ 24.091d−$174.03-7.10%stop loss
87long2025-03-02 20:00 @ 16.952025-03-03 16:00 @ 15.6720h−$185.09-7.69%stop loss
88long2025-03-14 12:00 @ 14.092025-03-16 12:00 @ 13.512d−$99.55-4.22%signal
89long2025-03-19 16:00 @ 14.612025-03-21 16:00 @ 13.872d−$122.46-5.24%signal
90long2025-03-24 04:00 @ 14.662025-03-28 08:00 @ 14.474d 4h−$34.89-1.51%signal
91long2025-04-01 16:00 @ 14.312025-04-02 04:00 @ 13.5912h−$118.20-5.15%stop loss
92long2025-04-22 16:00 @ 13.852025-04-27 08:00 @ 14.544d 16h$107.76+4.76%signal
93long2025-05-08 04:00 @ 14.492025-05-15 08:00 @ 16.197d 4h$261.26+11.39%signal
94long2025-05-27 16:00 @ 15.992025-05-29 16:00 @ 15.252d−$112.45-4.77%stop loss
95long2025-06-10 00:00 @ 14.352025-06-12 08:00 @ 14.422d 8h$6.92+0.30%signal
96long2025-06-24 16:00 @ 13.352025-06-27 00:00 @ 12.932d 8h−$76.77-3.29%signal
97long2025-06-30 00:00 @ 13.702025-06-30 08:00 @ 13.188h−$91.15-3.94%stop loss
98long2025-07-08 20:00 @ 13.912025-07-23 16:00 @ 18.4914d 20h$739.00+32.27%signal
99long2025-08-04 16:00 @ 16.922025-08-05 20:00 @ 16.181d 4h−$110.09-4.45%stop loss
100long2025-08-07 12:00 @ 17.342025-08-12 00:00 @ 21.064d 12h$517.62+21.15%signal
101long2025-08-12 16:00 @ 24.012025-08-14 12:00 @ 22.281d 20h−$189.28-7.35%stop loss
102long2025-08-17 16:00 @ 26.302025-08-18 04:00 @ 24.4812h−$177.28-7.01%stop loss
103long2025-08-22 20:00 @ 27.182025-08-24 12:00 @ 25.471d 16h−$159.82-6.43%signal
104long2025-09-09 08:00 @ 23.682025-09-14 12:00 @ 24.355d 4h$63.12+2.58%signal
105long2025-10-01 12:00 @ 22.232025-10-04 12:00 @ 21.833d−$47.66-1.94%signal
106long2025-10-06 20:00 @ 23.442025-10-07 12:00 @ 22.4816h−$103.61-4.23%stop loss
107long2025-10-20 08:00 @ 18.622025-10-22 00:00 @ 17.471d 16h−$152.33-6.29%stop loss
108long2025-10-27 00:00 @ 18.542025-10-28 20:00 @ 17.981d 20h−$75.00-3.14%signal
109long2025-11-07 20:00 @ 16.062025-11-11 20:00 @ 15.634d−$68.56-2.90%signal
110long2025-11-26 20:00 @ 13.452025-12-01 00:00 @ 12.784d 4h−$121.43-5.17%stop loss
111long2025-12-03 08:00 @ 14.382025-12-05 16:00 @ 13.932d 8h−$75.39-3.25%signal
112long2025-12-09 16:00 @ 14.402025-12-11 00:00 @ 13.621d 8h−$128.05-5.57%stop loss
113long2025-12-22 16:00 @ 12.802025-12-23 04:00 @ 12.2712h−$96.50-4.26%stop loss
114long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 12.942025-12-29 08:00 @ 12.504h−$78.28-3.49%stop loss
115long2026-01-02 04:00 @ 12.932026-01-07 16:00 @ 13.365d 12h$69.59+3.13%signal
116long2026-01-13 16:00 @ 13.582026-01-15 20:00 @ 13.672d 4h$12.16+0.54%signal
117long2026-02-25 16:00 @ 9.282026-02-27 08:00 @ 8.831d 16h−$112.34-5.00%stop loss
118long2026-03-13 04:00 @ 9.282026-03-14 08:00 @ 8.911d 4h−$91.03-4.11%stop loss
119long2026-03-16 04:00 @ 9.692026-03-18 12:00 @ 9.552d 8h−$35.86-1.63%signal
120long2026-04-01 08:00 @ 9.062026-04-02 00:00 @ 8.6916h−$91.76-4.20%stop loss
121long2026-04-06 00:00 @ 8.822026-04-12 04:00 @ 8.796d 4h−$12.62-0.58%signal
122long2026-04-14 00:00 @ 9.362026-04-14 16:00 @ 9.0016h−$86.57-4.01%stop loss
123long2026-04-16 16:00 @ 9.452026-04-18 20:00 @ 9.272d 4h−$43.74-2.05%signal
124long2026-04-27 04:00 @ 9.542026-04-27 04:00 @ 9.300m−$55.85-2.63%stop loss
125long2026-05-04 04:00 @ 9.352026-05-12 12:00 @ 10.268d 8h$198.94+9.42%signal
126long2026-06-15 00:00 @ 8.182026-06-17 20:00 @ 8.032d 20h−$42.49-1.97%signal
127long2026-07-02 16:00 @ 7.792026-07-08 04:00 @ 7.695d 12h−$31.18-1.45%signal
128long2026-07-14 16:00 @ 8.302026-07-17 04:00 @ 8.272d 12h−$9.99-0.47%signal
129long2026-07-20 16:00 @ 8.552026-07-23 08:00 @ 8.532d 16h−$9.80-0.46%signal
130long2026-07-27 00:00 @ 8.822026-07-27 12:00 @ 8.6012h−$56.38-2.64%stop loss
131long2026-08-11 12:00 @ 8.682026-08-26 00:00 @ 11.2814d 12h$626.21+29.48%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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