[Famous-PA] Darvas box breakout

public
@djgambhir

XRPUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,195 bars in 14.0ms

Underperformed the market. Holding XRPUSDT returned +64.83% over the same period, against this strategy’s +13.11%.

Net P&L
+13.11%
$1,310.95
Max drawdown
-32.97%
Max run-up
+67.75%
Trades
128
22.7% win rate
Profit factor
1.14
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -32.97%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-27.00%-32.85%7916%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+59.57%-11.25%2339%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-2.90%-11.68%2627%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.26
Sortino
0.42
Calmar
0.08
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.40
CAGR
+2.68%
Exposure
22.7%

Per trade

Expectancy
$10.24 · +0.67%
Average win / loss
$371.33 / −$95.53
Payoff ratio
3.89
Largest win / loss
$2,872.12 / −$278.33
Longest losing streak(winning: 2)
21 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-32.97%
Longest time under water
1028 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
1028 days
Under water at the end
410 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$306.37
Funding
−$277.84
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
23
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+64.83%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 128 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-38.78%+6.79%+138.03%
Max drawdown-44.98%-27.20%-14.75%

43% of histories lost money, and 28% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -32.97%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh20 length
20
ll10 length
10
volsma length
20
atr14 length
14
Long entry: volume > ▢ × volsma
1.5
Stop loss (× atr14)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

XRPUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

128 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
128long2026-08-19 16:00 @ 1.072026-08-26 00:00 @ 1.436d 8h$884.14+33.92%signal
127long2026-07-20 16:00 @ 1.112026-07-23 16:00 @ 1.113d−$4.58-0.18%signal
126long2026-07-15 16:00 @ 1.132026-07-16 16:00 @ 1.091d−$76.11-2.90%stop loss
125long2026-07-02 12:00 @ 1.082026-07-08 04:00 @ 1.095d 16h$23.26+0.89%signal
124long2026-06-15 00:00 @ 1.192026-06-17 12:00 @ 1.192d 12h$12.48+0.48%signal
123long2026-05-30 04:00 @ 1.352026-05-31 20:00 @ 1.331d 16h−$51.00-1.94%signal
122long2026-05-14 20:00 @ 1.522026-05-15 04:00 @ 1.468h−$99.08-3.73%stop loss
121long2026-05-10 20:00 @ 1.492026-05-10 20:00 @ 1.440m−$78.46-2.93%stop loss
120long2026-05-06 12:00 @ 1.452026-05-06 12:00 @ 1.410m−$69.64-2.59%stop loss
119long2026-05-04 04:00 @ 1.412026-05-04 08:00 @ 1.394h−$55.70-2.06%stop loss
118long2026-04-14 00:00 @ 1.382026-04-19 08:00 @ 1.425d 8h$80.36+2.99%signal
117long2026-04-08 00:00 @ 1.382026-04-09 00:00 @ 1.331d−$93.55-3.45%stop loss
116long2026-04-06 04:00 @ 1.342026-04-07 08:00 @ 1.301d 4h−$72.25-2.65%stop loss
115long2026-03-16 04:00 @ 1.472026-03-18 12:00 @ 1.492d 8h$36.30+1.34%signal
114long2026-03-10 16:00 @ 1.432026-03-11 08:00 @ 1.3716h−$116.32-4.23%stop loss
113long2026-03-04 16:00 @ 1.462026-03-06 12:00 @ 1.391d 20h−$150.54-5.40%stop loss
112long2026-02-25 16:00 @ 1.442026-02-27 12:00 @ 1.381d 20h−$119.09-4.23%signal
111long2026-02-15 04:00 @ 1.532026-02-15 20:00 @ 1.4516h−$151.41-5.31%stop loss
110long2026-01-13 20:00 @ 2.142026-01-15 16:00 @ 2.061d 20h−$111.91-3.88%stop loss
109long2026-01-02 16:00 @ 1.922026-01-07 16:00 @ 2.195d$394.74+14.19%signal
108long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 1.912025-12-29 08:00 @ 1.874h−$70.54-2.52%stop loss
107long2025-12-09 20:00 @ 2.132025-12-10 16:00 @ 2.0520h−$114.71-4.06%stop loss
106long2025-11-24 20:00 @ 2.232025-12-01 00:00 @ 2.156d 4h−$106.10-3.72%signal
105long2025-11-10 04:00 @ 2.462025-11-12 00:00 @ 2.391d 20h−$87.10-3.03%signal
104long2025-10-20 20:00 @ 2.522025-10-21 08:00 @ 2.4012h−$140.60-4.83%stop loss
103long2025-10-01 12:00 @ 2.942025-10-04 16:00 @ 2.953d 4h$0.07+0.00%signal
102long2025-09-18 00:00 @ 3.082025-09-19 12:00 @ 2.991d 12h−$93.65-3.19%stop loss
101long2025-09-07 16:00 @ 2.902025-09-14 16:00 @ 3.037d$120.65+4.15%signal
100long2025-08-22 20:00 @ 3.072025-08-25 04:00 @ 2.932d 8h−$142.30-4.84%stop loss
99long2025-08-08 00:00 @ 3.322025-08-10 08:00 @ 3.192d 8h−$124.29-4.18%signal
98long2025-07-09 12:00 @ 2.382025-07-23 16:00 @ 3.3214d 4h$1,049.00+38.71%signal
97long2025-07-07 16:00 @ 2.342025-07-07 20:00 @ 2.274h−$87.27-3.19%stop loss
96long2025-06-30 20:00 @ 2.322025-06-30 20:00 @ 2.240m−$99.77-3.62%stop loss
95long2025-06-16 16:00 @ 2.292025-06-17 00:00 @ 2.228h−$89.82-3.23%stop loss
94long2025-06-08 16:00 @ 2.282025-06-12 04:00 @ 2.243d 12h−$47.49-1.70%signal
93long2025-06-03 16:00 @ 2.262025-06-05 04:00 @ 2.191d 12h−$100.29-3.56%stop loss
92long2025-05-08 16:00 @ 2.242025-05-15 08:00 @ 2.466d 16h$256.12+9.31%signal
91long2025-04-21 04:00 @ 2.112025-04-30 00:00 @ 2.248d 20h$156.54+5.77%signal
90long2025-04-13 12:00 @ 2.202025-04-16 00:00 @ 2.082d 12h−$150.70-5.48%signal
89long2025-03-19 16:00 @ 2.552025-03-20 16:00 @ 2.411d−$157.54-5.65%stop loss
88long2025-03-02 16:00 @ 2.602025-03-03 16:00 @ 2.351d−$278.33-9.73%stop loss
87long2025-02-14 00:00 @ 2.562025-02-17 08:00 @ 2.653d 8h$100.42+3.54%signal
86long2025-01-28 16:00 @ 3.182025-01-29 16:00 @ 2.991d−$181.34-6.30%stop loss
85long2025-01-14 20:00 @ 2.662025-01-18 08:00 @ 3.123d 12h$462.84+16.75%signal
84long2025-01-11 20:00 @ 2.532025-01-13 08:00 @ 2.391d 12h−$157.90-5.63%stop loss
83long2025-01-01 16:00 @ 2.232025-01-05 04:00 @ 2.393d 12h$194.02+7.04%signal
82long2024-12-17 12:00 @ 2.692024-12-18 04:00 @ 2.5016h−$201.67-7.19%stop loss
81long2024-11-29 08:00 @ 1.592024-12-05 04:00 @ 2.265d 20h$1,049.15+41.26%signal
80long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 0.532024-11-24 12:00 @ 1.3818d 8h$2,872.12+157.38%signal
79long2024-10-14 16:00 @ 0.552024-10-15 08:00 @ 0.5416h−$48.29-2.63%stop loss
78long2024-09-28 08:00 @ 0.612024-10-01 16:00 @ 0.593d 8h−$65.06-3.51%stop loss
77long2024-09-21 20:00 @ 0.602024-09-22 20:00 @ 0.581d−$59.78-3.20%stop loss
76long2024-09-12 16:00 @ 0.562024-09-16 00:00 @ 0.573d 8h$40.22+2.16%signal
75long2024-08-18 16:00 @ 0.572024-08-26 20:00 @ 0.588d 4h$21.44+1.16%signal
74long2024-08-08 00:00 @ 0.602024-08-11 16:00 @ 0.573d 16h−$109.29-5.81%signal
73long2024-07-30 12:00 @ 0.632024-08-01 04:00 @ 0.601d 16h−$89.12-4.68%stop loss
72long2024-07-24 12:00 @ 0.632024-07-25 00:00 @ 0.5912h−$107.28-5.56%stop loss
71long2024-07-12 08:00 @ 0.462024-07-18 16:00 @ 0.566d 8h$390.82+21.34%signal
70long2024-07-02 12:00 @ 0.492024-07-03 12:00 @ 0.481d−$39.52-2.15%stop loss
69long2024-06-17 16:00 @ 0.512024-06-18 00:00 @ 0.498h−$80.24-4.31%stop loss
68long2024-06-04 16:00 @ 0.532024-06-06 20:00 @ 0.522d 4h−$38.19-2.04%signal
67long2024-05-20 20:00 @ 0.532024-05-23 12:00 @ 0.522d 16h−$53.46-2.84%stop loss
66long2024-05-06 16:00 @ 0.562024-05-07 00:00 @ 0.548h−$78.42-4.12%stop loss
65long2024-04-22 20:00 @ 0.552024-04-24 12:00 @ 0.531d 16h−$89.45-4.64%stop loss
64long2024-04-08 12:00 @ 0.612024-04-12 16:00 @ 0.594d 4h−$52.19-2.69%signal
63long2024-03-25 16:00 @ 0.642024-03-27 08:00 @ 0.621d 16h−$70.64-3.61%signal
62long2024-03-11 16:00 @ 0.692024-03-14 16:00 @ 0.653d−$150.11-7.53%stop loss
61long2024-02-29 20:00 @ 0.612024-03-05 16:00 @ 0.574d 20h−$162.51-7.99%stop loss
60long2024-02-26 20:00 @ 0.552024-02-28 16:00 @ 0.541d 20h−$66.10-3.22%stop loss
59long2024-02-15 04:00 @ 0.552024-02-17 16:00 @ 0.552d 12h−$30.08-1.46%signal
58long2024-02-11 12:00 @ 0.532024-02-12 00:00 @ 0.5212h−$49.18-2.37%stop loss
57long2024-02-03 12:00 @ 0.522024-02-04 16:00 @ 0.501d 4h−$72.32-3.46%stop loss
56long2024-01-26 20:00 @ 0.532024-01-28 20:00 @ 0.522d−$36.90-1.76%signal
55long2024-01-11 00:00 @ 0.602024-01-12 16:00 @ 0.571d 16h−$126.37-5.93%stop loss
54long2024-01-02 04:00 @ 0.632024-01-03 08:00 @ 0.621d 4h−$61.87-2.88%stop loss
53long2023-12-25 12:00 @ 0.642023-12-26 04:00 @ 0.6216h−$77.86-3.60%stop loss
52long2023-12-07 08:00 @ 0.652023-12-11 00:00 @ 0.623d 16h−$108.93-4.97%stop loss
51long2023-12-02 20:00 @ 0.622023-12-04 08:00 @ 0.611d 12h−$48.24-2.19%stop loss
50long2023-11-26 12:00 @ 0.632023-11-26 16:00 @ 0.614h−$66.82-3.01%stop loss
49long2023-10-20 00:00 @ 0.522023-11-09 20:00 @ 0.6620d 20h$537.96+25.78%signal
48long2023-10-16 08:00 @ 0.492023-10-17 12:00 @ 0.481d 4h−$44.42-2.12%stop loss
47long2023-10-04 00:00 @ 0.542023-10-05 12:00 @ 0.521d 12h−$89.96-4.24%stop loss
46long2023-09-29 16:00 @ 0.532023-09-30 00:00 @ 0.528h−$68.42-3.20%stop loss
45long2023-09-19 04:00 @ 0.512023-09-21 12:00 @ 0.502d 8h−$18.40-0.86%signal
44long2023-08-29 16:00 @ 0.542023-08-31 12:00 @ 0.521d 20h−$74.34-3.44%stop loss
43long2023-08-09 16:00 @ 0.652023-08-10 04:00 @ 0.6312h−$88.73-4.06%stop loss
42long2023-07-13 16:00 @ 0.592023-07-22 20:00 @ 0.759d 4h$527.89+25.74%signal
41long2023-07-10 20:00 @ 0.482023-07-12 16:00 @ 0.471d 20h−$51.62-2.50%stop loss
40long2023-07-02 04:00 @ 0.492023-07-05 08:00 @ 0.473d 4h−$93.17-4.46%stop loss
39long2023-06-22 04:00 @ 0.522023-06-22 08:00 @ 0.494h−$92.48-4.38%stop loss
38long2023-06-13 12:00 @ 0.562023-06-13 12:00 @ 0.530m−$128.32-5.99%stop loss
37long2023-05-30 04:00 @ 0.502023-06-05 16:00 @ 0.506d 12h$22.12+1.03%signal
36long2023-05-17 00:00 @ 0.442023-05-21 16:00 @ 0.464d 16h$75.85+3.58%signal
35long2023-05-05 20:00 @ 0.472023-05-06 12:00 @ 0.4516h−$56.87-2.67%stop loss
34long2023-04-19 00:00 @ 0.532023-04-19 08:00 @ 0.528h−$69.65-3.24%stop loss
33long2023-04-11 08:00 @ 0.522023-04-12 00:00 @ 0.5116h−$64.94-3.00%stop loss
32long2023-03-21 16:00 @ 0.432023-04-01 08:00 @ 0.5110d 16h$379.86+18.34%signal
31long2023-03-19 12:00 @ 0.392023-03-20 16:00 @ 0.371d 4h−$105.70-5.04%stop loss
30long2023-03-14 16:00 @ 0.382023-03-15 08:00 @ 0.3616h−$111.88-5.26%stop loss
29long2023-03-08 12:00 @ 0.392023-03-09 20:00 @ 0.371d 8h−$86.86-4.05%stop loss
28long2023-02-20 16:00 @ 0.402023-02-21 12:00 @ 0.3920h−$83.53-3.85%stop loss
27long2023-02-16 00:00 @ 0.402023-02-16 20:00 @ 0.3920h−$77.73-3.55%stop loss
26long2023-01-09 04:00 @ 0.352023-01-30 12:00 @ 0.4021d 8h$260.42+12.27%signal
25long2023-01-02 16:00 @ 0.352023-01-05 20:00 @ 0.343d 4h−$96.69-4.51%stop loss
24long2022-12-26 16:00 @ 0.362022-12-29 00:00 @ 0.352d 8h−$54.43-2.52%stop loss
23long2022-12-13 16:00 @ 0.392022-12-14 16:00 @ 0.381d−$72.25-3.32%stop loss
22long2022-11-24 20:00 @ 0.402022-11-28 00:00 @ 0.383d 4h−$108.13-4.90%stop loss
21long2022-11-15 16:00 @ 0.392022-11-21 00:00 @ 0.365d 8h−$176.10-7.83%signal
20long2022-11-04 12:00 @ 0.492022-11-06 20:00 @ 0.482d 8h−$25.40-1.13%signal
19long2022-10-27 04:00 @ 0.472022-10-28 08:00 @ 0.461d 4h−$78.51-3.45%signal
18long2022-10-05 20:00 @ 0.502022-10-11 00:00 @ 0.495d 4h−$21.47-0.94%signal
17long2022-09-22 20:00 @ 0.482022-09-27 16:00 @ 0.444d 20h−$227.30-9.73%stop loss
16long2022-09-20 16:00 @ 0.422022-09-21 16:00 @ 0.381d−$209.99-8.79%stop loss
15long2022-09-17 16:00 @ 0.372022-09-19 00:00 @ 0.351d 8h−$127.11-5.25%stop loss
14long2022-08-26 12:00 @ 0.352022-08-26 16:00 @ 0.344h−$94.72-3.87%signal
13long2022-07-28 16:00 @ 0.362022-08-09 12:00 @ 0.3711d 20h$18.62+0.76%signal
12long2022-07-15 04:00 @ 0.342022-07-23 12:00 @ 0.358d 8h$45.13+1.86%signal
11long2022-07-08 04:00 @ 0.352022-07-08 08:00 @ 0.344h−$107.86-4.39%stop loss
10long2022-06-24 04:00 @ 0.372022-06-27 16:00 @ 0.353d 12h−$103.31-4.16%signal
9long2022-06-07 20:00 @ 0.412022-06-08 00:00 @ 0.404h−$112.44-4.48%stop loss
8long2022-05-31 00:00 @ 0.422022-06-01 16:00 @ 0.401d 16h−$109.97-4.33%stop loss
7long2022-05-04 20:00 @ 0.642022-05-05 12:00 @ 0.6116h−$128.60-5.00%stop loss
6long2022-04-15 04:00 @ 0.792022-04-18 00:00 @ 0.752d 20h−$118.95-4.58%signal
5long2022-03-28 00:00 @ 0.862022-03-31 12:00 @ 0.833d 12h−$80.07-3.06%stop loss
4long2022-03-19 08:00 @ 0.812022-03-25 20:00 @ 0.836d 12h$49.02+1.88%signal
3long2022-03-12 00:00 @ 0.802022-03-13 20:00 @ 0.751d 20h−$164.91-6.23%stop loss
2long2022-02-04 20:00 @ 0.642022-02-11 00:00 @ 0.826d 4h$707.10+28.61%signal
1long2022-01-12 16:00 @ 0.792022-01-14 12:00 @ 0.761d 20h−$113.24-4.53%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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