[Famous-PA] Darvas box breakout

public
@djgambhir

ETHUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 10.1ms

Net P&L
+21.61%
$2,160.92
Max drawdown
-13.43%
Max run-up
+31.64%
Trades
128
28.1% win rate
Profit factor
1.27
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -13.43%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+11.54%-10.61%6929%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+12.04%-12.93%2730%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-2.69%-12.02%3225%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.52
Sortino
0.76
Calmar
0.32
Return ÷ max drawdown
1.61
CAGR
+4.28%
Exposure
29.2%

Per trade

Expectancy
$16.88 · +0.69%
Average win / loss
$278.56 / −$85.51
Payoff ratio
3.26
Largest win / loss
$1,093.26 / −$192.17
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
12 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-13.43%
Longest time under water
502 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
502 days
Under water at the end
329 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$356.28
Funding
−$415.22
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
23
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-33.60%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 128 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-14.42%+20.35%+82.50%
Max drawdown-26.22%-14.32%-8.55%

21% of histories lost money, and 58% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -13.43%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh20 length
20
ll10 length
10
volsma length
20
atr14 length
14
Long entry: volume > ▢ × volsma
1.5
Stop loss (× atr14)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

ETHUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

128 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
128long2026-08-17 04:00 @ 1,900.582026-08-28 20:00 @ 2,433.9411d 16h$785.71+27.63%signal
127long2026-08-05 20:00 @ 1,916.472026-08-10 00:00 @ 1,909.184d 4h−$14.70-0.52%signal
126long2026-07-27 00:00 @ 1,954.192026-07-27 20:00 @ 1,910.7120h−$67.13-2.34%stop loss
125long2026-07-20 12:00 @ 1,892.812026-07-23 16:00 @ 1,894.113d 4h−$1.44-0.05%signal
124long2026-07-14 16:00 @ 1,874.742026-07-17 04:00 @ 1,851.382d 12h−$40.00-1.39%signal
123long2026-07-02 16:00 @ 1,696.672026-07-08 16:00 @ 1,721.746d$36.15+1.26%signal
122long2026-06-29 20:00 @ 1,625.062026-06-30 12:00 @ 1,563.3716h−$112.95-3.90%stop loss
121long2026-06-15 00:00 @ 1,725.082026-06-17 20:00 @ 1,733.672d 20h$10.96+0.38%signal
120long2026-05-11 00:00 @ 2,370.682026-05-11 12:00 @ 2,311.6612h−$75.60-2.60%stop loss
119long2026-05-10 20:00 @ 2,365.062026-05-10 20:00 @ 2,310.070m−$70.96-2.42%stop loss
118long2026-05-06 12:00 @ 2,409.472026-05-06 16:00 @ 2,338.264h−$89.95-3.05%stop loss
117long2026-05-04 04:00 @ 2,384.552026-05-04 08:00 @ 2,325.174h−$77.13-2.60%stop loss
116long2026-04-27 04:00 @ 2,394.162026-04-27 04:00 @ 2,330.500m−$82.45-2.76%stop loss
115long2026-04-22 08:00 @ 2,389.732026-04-23 08:00 @ 2,309.011d−$105.63-3.50%stop loss
114long2026-04-14 00:00 @ 2,369.272026-04-19 08:00 @ 2,313.815d 8h−$73.79-2.43%signal
113long2026-04-06 00:00 @ 2,109.782026-04-12 12:00 @ 2,202.676d 12h$128.54+4.28%signal
112long2026-03-31 20:00 @ 2,096.102026-04-02 12:00 @ 2,031.621d 16h−$95.70-3.16%signal
111long2026-03-10 16:00 @ 2,078.842026-03-18 12:00 @ 2,267.667d 20h$264.76+8.94%signal
110long2026-03-04 16:00 @ 2,149.722026-03-06 12:00 @ 2,049.621d 20h−$142.60-4.76%signal
109long2026-02-25 16:00 @ 2,013.252026-02-27 12:00 @ 1,960.401d 20h−$82.69-2.74%signal
108long2026-01-27 20:00 @ 2,980.062026-01-29 12:00 @ 2,878.861d 16h−$107.32-3.53%stop loss
107long2026-01-13 16:00 @ 3,183.752026-01-16 16:00 @ 3,262.393d$70.00+2.31%signal
106long2026-01-12 04:00 @ 3,151.802026-01-12 12:00 @ 3,077.728h−$74.68-2.45%stop loss
105long2026-01-02 12:00 @ 3,047.302026-01-07 16:00 @ 3,162.905d 4h$108.72+3.60%signal
104long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 3,042.912025-12-29 08:00 @ 2,967.954h−$78.07-2.57%stop loss
103long2025-12-22 04:00 @ 3,020.782025-12-23 12:00 @ 2,925.731d 8h−$99.69-3.26%stop loss
102long2025-12-09 16:00 @ 3,245.572025-12-12 12:00 @ 3,094.882d 20h−$148.09-4.78%stop loss
101long2025-12-03 16:00 @ 3,085.462025-12-05 20:00 @ 3,036.482d 4h−$54.02-1.74%signal
100long2025-11-24 20:00 @ 2,958.402025-12-01 04:00 @ 2,824.256d 8h−$147.30-4.68%signal
99long2025-11-09 16:00 @ 3,514.282025-11-11 16:00 @ 3,478.922d−$35.75-1.13%signal
98long2025-10-26 12:00 @ 4,043.892025-10-28 20:00 @ 4,036.412d 8h−$10.56-0.33%signal
97long2025-09-29 16:00 @ 4,163.542025-10-09 12:00 @ 4,370.129d 20h$147.48+4.72%signal
96long2025-09-10 16:00 @ 4,404.372025-09-14 16:00 @ 4,579.304d$116.78+3.77%signal
95long2025-08-22 16:00 @ 4,614.852025-08-25 08:00 @ 4,588.682d 16h−$22.94-0.74%signal
94long2025-08-07 12:00 @ 3,826.442025-08-15 16:00 @ 4,427.838d 4h$458.44+15.35%signal
93long2025-07-08 20:00 @ 2,609.742025-07-22 08:00 @ 3,675.7013d 12h$1,093.26+40.30%signal
92long2025-07-02 20:00 @ 2,604.162025-07-04 12:00 @ 2,510.681d 16h−$101.85-3.72%stop loss
91long2025-06-30 00:00 @ 2,499.752025-07-01 12:00 @ 2,422.321d 12h−$88.89-3.22%stop loss
90long2025-06-09 20:00 @ 2,579.982025-06-12 16:00 @ 2,717.702d 20h$140.47+5.15%signal
89long2025-06-04 16:00 @ 2,667.452025-06-05 12:00 @ 2,569.6420h−$104.10-3.78%stop loss
88long2025-05-27 08:00 @ 2,607.492025-05-31 00:00 @ 2,529.113d 16h−$88.97-3.21%signal
87long2025-05-08 04:00 @ 1,900.892025-05-18 20:00 @ 2,406.3010d 16h$681.47+26.18%signal
86long2025-05-01 12:00 @ 1,845.162025-05-05 04:00 @ 1,793.493d 16h−$76.27-2.91%signal
85long2025-04-22 16:00 @ 1,702.752025-04-30 16:00 @ 1,763.378d$88.53+3.40%signal
84long2025-04-21 04:00 @ 1,634.392025-04-21 16:00 @ 1,580.0412h−$90.26-3.44%stop loss
83long2025-04-01 16:00 @ 1,918.272025-04-02 20:00 @ 1,840.051d 4h−$110.97-4.19%stop loss
82long2025-03-24 08:00 @ 2,068.892025-03-26 16:00 @ 2,010.802d 8h−$78.26-2.93%signal
81long2025-03-19 12:00 @ 2,027.392025-03-21 12:00 @ 1,946.562d−$110.66-4.10%stop loss
80long2025-03-02 20:00 @ 2,485.502025-03-03 12:00 @ 2,314.0016h−$192.17-7.00%stop loss
79long2025-02-21 12:00 @ 2,787.762025-02-21 12:00 @ 2,670.880m−$119.09-4.29%stop loss
78long2025-02-13 00:00 @ 2,737.692025-02-18 20:00 @ 2,628.345d 20h−$117.19-4.18%signal
77long2025-01-31 16:00 @ 3,426.902025-02-01 04:00 @ 3,272.6412h−$131.01-4.62%stop loss
76long2025-01-03 16:00 @ 3,565.032025-01-07 12:00 @ 3,452.453d 20h−$96.70-3.38%stop loss
75long2024-12-16 20:00 @ 4,057.812024-12-17 20:00 @ 3,900.291d−$115.91-4.01%stop loss
74long2024-12-06 16:00 @ 3,997.092024-12-09 12:00 @ 3,852.912d 20h−$113.94-3.90%signal
73long2024-12-04 16:00 @ 3,825.142024-12-05 20:00 @ 3,663.991d 4h−$130.98-4.44%stop loss
72long2024-11-21 16:00 @ 3,279.872024-12-02 12:00 @ 3,591.4910d 20h$250.31+8.66%signal
71long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 2,579.562024-11-14 16:00 @ 3,078.628d 12h$516.62+18.72%signal
70long2024-10-29 04:00 @ 2,608.102024-10-31 16:00 @ 2,562.382d 12h−$53.34-1.92%signal
69long2024-10-14 04:00 @ 2,520.542024-10-23 12:00 @ 2,580.319d 8h$54.59+1.98%signal
68long2024-10-07 04:00 @ 2,494.882024-10-07 16:00 @ 2,426.8712h−$78.84-2.84%stop loss
67long2024-09-19 20:00 @ 2,460.282024-09-25 20:00 @ 2,569.176d$115.79+4.21%signal
66long2024-09-13 16:00 @ 2,407.312024-09-15 20:00 @ 2,370.672d 4h−$45.03-1.63%signal
65long2024-08-23 20:00 @ 2,745.132024-08-26 20:00 @ 2,679.423d−$69.73-2.51%signal
64long2024-07-29 04:00 @ 3,348.682024-07-30 20:00 @ 3,241.901d 16h−$93.52-3.34%stop loss
63long2024-07-15 00:00 @ 3,244.172024-07-24 20:00 @ 3,361.559d 20h$91.70+3.30%signal
62long2024-07-01 04:00 @ 3,497.972024-07-02 12:00 @ 3,417.711d 8h−$68.04-2.43%stop loss
61long2024-06-27 16:00 @ 3,452.462024-06-30 00:00 @ 3,351.252d 8h−$87.64-3.11%stop loss
60long2024-06-05 20:00 @ 3,880.792024-06-06 20:00 @ 3,782.051d−$76.55-2.70%stop loss
59long2024-05-20 20:00 @ 3,438.982024-05-29 16:00 @ 3,762.288d 20h$249.23+8.98%signal
58long2024-05-17 16:00 @ 3,110.472024-05-19 16:00 @ 3,075.522d−$35.00-1.26%signal
57long2024-04-08 12:00 @ 3,636.912024-04-09 12:00 @ 3,503.221d−$108.01-3.84%stop loss
56long2024-03-31 08:00 @ 3,630.912024-04-01 04:00 @ 3,514.6620h−$98.82-3.48%stop loss
55long2024-03-25 16:00 @ 3,585.202024-03-27 16:00 @ 3,516.602d−$61.77-2.17%signal
54long2024-03-11 08:00 @ 4,014.172024-03-12 16:00 @ 3,835.621d 8h−$139.48-4.83%stop loss
53long2024-02-06 20:00 @ 2,378.342024-03-05 20:00 @ 3,376.8528d$1,031.59+39.25%signal
52long2024-01-30 16:00 @ 2,340.902024-01-31 20:00 @ 2,277.791d 4h−$75.04-2.83%stop loss
51long2024-01-10 12:00 @ 2,403.452024-01-13 00:00 @ 2,522.802d 12h$125.23+4.79%signal
50long2024-01-08 20:00 @ 2,355.712024-01-09 12:00 @ 2,272.9116h−$95.90-3.63%stop loss
49long2024-01-02 04:00 @ 2,388.942024-01-03 08:00 @ 2,320.951d 4h−$82.78-3.11%stop loss
48long2023-12-27 16:00 @ 2,345.482023-12-29 20:00 @ 2,270.472d 4h−$97.29-3.62%stop loss
47long2023-12-22 12:00 @ 2,315.522023-12-25 00:00 @ 2,264.972d 12h−$65.81-2.44%signal
46long2023-12-01 04:00 @ 2,092.532023-12-11 04:00 @ 2,250.8710d$186.22+7.01%signal
45long2023-11-22 20:00 @ 2,077.762023-11-26 20:00 @ 2,056.224d−$33.45-1.26%signal
44long2023-10-20 12:00 @ 1,612.842023-11-14 20:00 @ 1,979.3525d 8h$543.12+21.49%signal
43long2023-10-16 08:00 @ 1,578.342023-10-17 16:00 @ 1,549.931d 8h−$48.84-1.92%stop loss
42long2023-09-28 16:00 @ 1,652.342023-10-04 00:00 @ 1,615.085d 8h−$61.32-2.40%stop loss
41long2023-09-27 12:00 @ 1,629.242023-09-27 12:00 @ 1,595.890m−$55.11-2.15%stop loss
40long2023-09-18 12:00 @ 1,655.502023-09-20 08:00 @ 1,622.551d 20h−$54.17-2.10%stop loss
39long2023-08-29 16:00 @ 1,716.002023-08-31 16:00 @ 1,673.452d−$67.49-2.60%stop loss
38long2023-08-08 20:00 @ 1,858.682023-08-14 00:00 @ 1,839.725d 4h−$31.53-1.21%signal
37long2023-07-10 20:00 @ 1,899.832023-07-17 12:00 @ 1,908.636d 16h$6.52+0.25%signal
36long2023-06-30 20:00 @ 1,926.352023-07-05 12:00 @ 1,909.514d 16h−$29.11-1.11%signal
35long2023-06-20 20:00 @ 1,782.182023-06-26 20:00 @ 1,853.066d$96.41+3.72%signal
34long2023-05-28 04:00 @ 1,850.372023-05-31 08:00 @ 1,868.293d 4h$20.73+0.80%signal
33long2023-05-23 04:00 @ 1,865.332023-05-24 00:00 @ 1,828.7920h−$54.12-2.08%stop loss
32long2023-05-05 16:00 @ 1,953.232023-05-06 12:00 @ 1,892.5020h−$84.77-3.24%stop loss
31long2023-04-26 12:00 @ 1,914.062023-04-26 16:00 @ 1,845.514h−$97.46-3.69%stop loss
30long2023-04-10 20:00 @ 1,888.522023-04-19 12:00 @ 1,980.308d 16h$117.96+4.51%signal
29long2023-04-04 12:00 @ 1,864.552023-04-07 08:00 @ 1,849.642d 20h−$24.90-0.95%signal
28long2023-03-31 16:00 @ 1,830.282023-04-02 16:00 @ 1,796.252d−$52.73-2.00%signal
27long2023-03-23 16:00 @ 1,837.812023-03-24 08:00 @ 1,749.9416h−$130.80-4.91%stop loss
26long2023-03-13 16:00 @ 1,666.642023-03-15 16:00 @ 1,634.102d−$57.42-2.14%signal
25long2023-02-16 00:00 @ 1,675.322023-02-22 12:00 @ 1,610.386d 12h−$113.18-4.18%stop loss
24long2023-02-02 04:00 @ 1,672.262023-02-05 16:00 @ 1,609.453d 12h−$108.39-3.96%stop loss
23long2023-01-29 20:00 @ 1,655.272023-01-30 08:00 @ 1,593.7412h−$105.89-3.83%stop loss
22long2023-01-02 08:00 @ 1,213.072023-01-25 00:00 @ 1,555.6922d 16h$704.13+27.24%signal
21long2022-12-13 12:00 @ 1,286.502022-12-15 16:00 @ 1,269.732d 4h−$37.99-1.46%signal
20long2022-11-30 04:00 @ 1,264.812022-12-04 00:00 @ 1,239.513d 20h−$55.84-2.14%signal
19long2022-11-04 16:00 @ 1,625.062022-11-07 00:00 @ 1,567.112d 8h−$97.78-3.71%signal
18long2022-10-25 16:00 @ 1,407.812022-10-28 08:00 @ 1,492.932d 16h$153.32+5.91%signal
17long2022-10-24 00:00 @ 1,363.702022-10-24 12:00 @ 1,327.3312h−$72.78-2.79%stop loss
16long2022-10-04 08:00 @ 1,349.862022-10-07 16:00 @ 1,333.203d 8h−$35.61-1.36%signal
15long2022-09-27 04:00 @ 1,385.142022-09-27 16:00 @ 1,316.3012h−$134.65-5.07%stop loss
14long2022-09-02 16:00 @ 1,635.602022-09-07 00:00 @ 1,532.164d 8h−$170.41-6.32%stop loss
13long2022-08-10 16:00 @ 1,837.212022-08-14 20:00 @ 1,929.734d 4h$129.62+4.86%signal
12long2022-08-08 12:00 @ 1,789.072022-08-09 08:00 @ 1,711.7820h−$119.50-4.43%stop loss
11long2022-07-28 16:00 @ 1,728.682022-08-01 20:00 @ 1,621.414d 4h−$175.65-6.41%signal
10long2022-07-14 20:00 @ 1,193.902022-07-25 20:00 @ 1,493.6511d$638.43+24.75%signal
9long2022-07-04 16:00 @ 1,111.602022-07-10 04:00 @ 1,187.495d 12h$167.79+6.61%signal
8long2022-06-06 04:00 @ 1,877.362022-06-07 00:00 @ 1,802.3420h−$105.72-4.12%stop loss
7long2022-05-31 00:00 @ 1,998.272022-06-01 12:00 @ 1,897.931d 12h−$134.20-5.17%stop loss
6long2022-05-04 20:00 @ 2,955.222022-05-05 12:00 @ 2,838.9016h−$106.40-4.05%stop loss
5long2022-04-19 16:00 @ 3,110.142022-04-21 20:00 @ 3,024.252d 4h−$75.49-2.86%signal
4long2022-03-22 04:00 @ 3,007.932022-03-31 20:00 @ 3,282.159d 16h$226.65+8.76%signal
3long2022-03-15 20:00 @ 2,659.232022-03-20 16:00 @ 2,853.854d 20h$180.01+7.08%signal
2long2022-01-31 20:00 @ 2,672.612022-02-11 20:00 @ 2,991.5311d$290.78+11.78%signal
1long2022-01-12 16:00 @ 3,360.952022-01-14 08:00 @ 3,198.451d 16h−$123.45-4.94%stop loss

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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