[Famous-Q] Turtle System 2 (55/20)

public
@djgambhir

DOGEUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 10.6ms

Net P&L
-18.35%
−$1,835.42
Max drawdown
-32.63%
Max run-up
+32.37%
Trades
147
25.9% win rate
Profit factor
0.85
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -32.63%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-17.01%-28.46%8822%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-1.27%-16.28%3238%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-0.35%-13.06%2726%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.14
Sortino
-0.20
Calmar
-0.13
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.56
CAGR
-4.25%
Exposure
45.8%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$12.49 · -0.38%
Average win / loss
$265.07 / −$109.25
Payoff ratio
2.43
Largest win / loss
$1,819.81 / −$291.41
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
8 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-32.63%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
1400 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$318.83
Funding
−$283.32
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
58
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-51.50%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 147 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-51.45%-19.99%+48.16%
Max drawdown-56.27%-36.67%-20.03%

73% of histories lost money, and 63% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -32.63%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh55 length
55
ll55 length
55
hh20 length
20
ll20 length
20
atr20 length
20
Stop loss (× atr20)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

DOGEUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

147 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1short2022-01-05 20:00 @ 0.162022-01-11 12:00 @ 0.165d 16h−$12.12-0.48%signal
2long2022-01-14 08:00 @ 0.202022-01-16 00:00 @ 0.181d 16h−$228.41-9.15%stop loss
3short2022-01-21 04:00 @ 0.152022-02-05 00:00 @ 0.1514d 20h$23.55+0.97%signal
4long2022-02-07 00:00 @ 0.152022-02-11 16:00 @ 0.154d 16h−$126.18-5.16%stop loss
5short2022-02-18 00:00 @ 0.142022-02-19 04:00 @ 0.151d 4h−$141.42-5.86%stop loss
6short2022-02-22 00:00 @ 0.132022-02-28 20:00 @ 0.146d 20h−$164.27-6.91%stop loss
7short2022-03-07 04:00 @ 0.122022-03-19 12:00 @ 0.1212d 8h−$54.23-2.32%signal
8long2022-03-19 16:00 @ 0.122022-03-20 12:00 @ 0.1220h−$88.38-3.80%stop loss
9long2022-03-23 20:00 @ 0.132022-04-01 04:00 @ 0.138d 8h$132.10+5.74%signal
10long2022-04-04 12:00 @ 0.162022-04-04 12:00 @ 0.150m−$151.12-6.47%stop loss
11long2022-04-05 16:00 @ 0.162022-04-06 12:00 @ 0.1520h−$179.27-7.80%stop loss
12short2022-04-12 00:00 @ 0.132022-04-14 08:00 @ 0.142d 8h−$185.46-8.23%stop loss
13short2022-04-25 04:00 @ 0.132022-04-25 08:00 @ 0.134h−$102.92-4.66%stop loss
14long2022-04-25 20:00 @ 0.162022-04-26 00:00 @ 0.154h−$152.81-7.01%stop loss
15short2022-05-09 04:00 @ 0.122022-06-19 20:00 @ 0.0641d 16h$1,067.57+49.83%signal
16long2022-06-26 08:00 @ 0.072022-06-29 04:00 @ 0.072d 20h−$182.36-7.57%stop loss
17long2022-07-08 04:00 @ 0.072022-07-08 12:00 @ 0.078h−$126.51-5.35%stop loss
18short2022-07-11 12:00 @ 0.062022-07-18 08:00 @ 0.076d 20h−$64.98-2.79%signal
19long2022-07-19 20:00 @ 0.072022-07-23 12:00 @ 0.073d 16h−$98.37-4.25%signal
20short2022-07-26 00:00 @ 0.062022-07-27 16:00 @ 0.071d 16h−$143.03-6.24%stop loss
21long2022-08-09 08:00 @ 0.072022-08-09 08:00 @ 0.070m−$107.12-4.75%stop loss
22long2022-08-14 08:00 @ 0.082022-08-19 00:00 @ 0.074d 16h−$116.03-5.21%stop loss
23short2022-08-22 08:00 @ 0.072022-08-25 08:00 @ 0.073d−$161.56-7.35%stop loss
24short2022-08-27 00:00 @ 0.062022-09-17 16:00 @ 0.0621d 16h$44.50+2.06%signal
25short2022-09-19 00:00 @ 0.062022-09-20 12:00 @ 0.061d 12h−$103.41-4.76%stop loss
26long2022-09-23 20:00 @ 0.062022-09-25 20:00 @ 0.062d−$111.33-5.19%stop loss
27long2022-10-04 20:00 @ 0.062022-10-07 12:00 @ 0.062d 16h−$85.83-4.06%stop loss
28long2022-10-25 20:00 @ 0.062022-11-04 04:00 @ 0.129d 8h$1,819.81+86.86%signal
29short2022-11-08 04:00 @ 0.102022-11-25 12:00 @ 0.0917d 8h$359.60+14.10%signal
30long2022-11-26 04:00 @ 0.092022-12-07 08:00 @ 0.0911d 4h$63.17+2.39%signal
31short2022-12-12 04:00 @ 0.092022-12-13 12:00 @ 0.091d 8h−$153.55-5.78%stop loss
32short2022-12-17 00:00 @ 0.082022-12-23 04:00 @ 0.086d 4h−$79.56-3.04%signal
33short2022-12-30 08:00 @ 0.072022-12-31 12:00 @ 0.071d 4h−$122.70-4.72%stop loss
34long2023-01-09 12:00 @ 0.082023-01-10 00:00 @ 0.0712h−$106.19-4.14%stop loss
35long2023-01-12 04:00 @ 0.082023-01-12 12:00 @ 0.088h−$120.79-4.76%stop loss
36long2023-01-14 00:00 @ 0.082023-01-18 16:00 @ 0.084d 16h−$151.65-6.04%stop loss
37long2023-01-31 08:00 @ 0.102023-02-01 12:00 @ 0.091d 4h−$159.34-6.45%stop loss
38short2023-02-09 20:00 @ 0.082023-02-15 20:00 @ 0.096d−$152.20-6.26%stop loss
39short2023-02-24 16:00 @ 0.082023-03-13 16:00 @ 0.0717d$280.05+11.70%signal
40long2023-03-14 16:00 @ 0.082023-03-14 20:00 @ 0.074h−$137.57-5.58%stop loss
41long2023-03-18 04:00 @ 0.082023-03-18 16:00 @ 0.0712h−$145.43-5.98%stop loss
42long2023-04-01 20:00 @ 0.082023-04-02 12:00 @ 0.0816h−$108.70-4.54%stop loss
43long2023-04-03 20:00 @ 0.102023-04-03 20:00 @ 0.090m−$183.19-7.74%stop loss
44long2023-04-17 08:00 @ 0.092023-04-19 08:00 @ 0.092d−$121.39-5.23%stop loss
45short2023-04-21 20:00 @ 0.082023-04-26 12:00 @ 0.084d 16h−$81.18-3.54%signal
46short2023-05-06 16:00 @ 0.082023-05-17 20:00 @ 0.0811d 4h$41.11+1.81%signal
47short2023-05-24 16:00 @ 0.072023-05-27 20:00 @ 0.073d 4h−$60.38-2.65%stop loss
48short2023-06-05 16:00 @ 0.072023-06-06 16:00 @ 0.071d−$74.77-3.30%stop loss
49short2023-06-10 08:00 @ 0.062023-06-21 00:00 @ 0.0610d 16h−$150.82-6.71%stop loss
50long2023-06-21 04:00 @ 0.062023-06-28 16:00 @ 0.067d 12h−$76.09-3.45%stop loss
51long2023-07-14 16:00 @ 0.072023-07-14 16:00 @ 0.070m−$102.89-4.70%stop loss
52long2023-07-25 20:00 @ 0.082023-07-26 16:00 @ 0.0820h−$138.51-6.40%stop loss
53short2023-08-03 12:00 @ 0.072023-08-05 12:00 @ 0.082d−$94.06-4.42%stop loss
54short2023-08-15 20:00 @ 0.072023-08-29 16:00 @ 0.0713d 20h$121.69+5.78%signal
55long2023-09-19 16:00 @ 0.062023-09-20 16:00 @ 0.061d−$50.37-2.36%stop loss
56long2023-10-02 00:00 @ 0.062023-10-02 16:00 @ 0.0616h−$45.99-2.17%stop loss
57short2023-10-09 12:00 @ 0.062023-10-14 16:00 @ 0.065d 4h−$32.79-1.55%signal
58long2023-10-23 04:00 @ 0.062023-11-14 20:00 @ 0.0722d 16h$272.58+12.96%signal
59long2023-11-17 12:00 @ 0.082023-11-19 00:00 @ 0.081d 12h−$168.54-7.76%stop loss
60long2023-11-30 20:00 @ 0.082023-12-18 12:00 @ 0.0917d 16h$85.51+4.01%signal
61short2024-01-03 16:00 @ 0.082024-01-11 12:00 @ 0.097d 20h−$89.88-4.18%signal
62long2024-01-21 00:00 @ 0.092024-01-22 00:00 @ 0.081d−$100.56-4.72%stop loss
63long2024-02-09 08:00 @ 0.082024-02-12 00:00 @ 0.082d 16h−$52.80-2.51%stop loss
64long2024-02-14 20:00 @ 0.092024-02-17 12:00 @ 0.082d 16h−$71.46-3.42%stop loss
65long2024-02-19 20:00 @ 0.092024-02-20 08:00 @ 0.0912h−$75.85-3.66%stop loss
66long2024-02-27 08:00 @ 0.092024-03-16 20:00 @ 0.1418d 12h$1,043.43+50.81%signal
67short2024-03-19 04:00 @ 0.142024-03-20 20:00 @ 0.151d 16h−$291.41-12.59%stop loss
68long2024-03-25 16:00 @ 0.182024-04-02 04:00 @ 0.197d 12h$41.48+1.85%signal
69short2024-04-05 12:00 @ 0.172024-04-06 04:00 @ 0.1916h−$220.18-9.78%stop loss
70short2024-04-13 20:00 @ 0.152024-04-20 20:00 @ 0.167d−$147.87-6.73%signal
71short2024-04-30 12:00 @ 0.142024-05-03 20:00 @ 0.143d 8h−$130.48-6.04%stop loss
72long2024-05-04 12:00 @ 0.162024-05-08 00:00 @ 0.153d 12h−$111.71-5.25%signal
73short2024-05-13 04:00 @ 0.142024-05-13 08:00 @ 0.154h−$123.37-5.88%stop loss
74long2024-05-21 00:00 @ 0.172024-05-23 12:00 @ 0.162d 12h−$105.37-5.09%stop loss
75short2024-06-07 20:00 @ 0.152024-06-12 16:00 @ 0.154d 20h−$17.18-0.84%signal
76short2024-06-14 20:00 @ 0.132024-06-25 16:00 @ 0.1310d 20h$97.88+4.80%signal
77short2024-07-04 12:00 @ 0.112024-07-14 20:00 @ 0.1210d 8h−$104.00-5.04%stop loss
78long2024-07-15 00:00 @ 0.122024-07-25 04:00 @ 0.1210d 4h$122.48+6.01%signal
79short2024-08-01 16:00 @ 0.122024-08-08 16:00 @ 0.107d$214.96+10.40%signal
80long2024-08-23 16:00 @ 0.112024-08-26 16:00 @ 0.113d−$92.28-4.35%stop loss
81short2024-09-02 00:00 @ 0.102024-09-02 20:00 @ 0.1020h−$104.71-4.99%stop loss
82short2024-09-06 20:00 @ 0.092024-09-07 12:00 @ 0.1016h−$112.93-5.45%stop loss
83long2024-09-09 20:00 @ 0.102024-09-11 04:00 @ 0.101d 8h−$88.09-4.31%stop loss
84long2024-09-13 16:00 @ 0.112024-09-15 20:00 @ 0.102d 4h−$82.63-4.09%stop loss
85long2024-09-21 16:00 @ 0.112024-09-22 12:00 @ 0.1120h−$72.05-3.60%stop loss
86long2024-09-26 08:00 @ 0.112024-09-30 16:00 @ 0.124d 8h$58.59+2.95%signal
87long2024-10-14 16:00 @ 0.122024-10-15 12:00 @ 0.1120h−$79.30-3.97%stop loss
88long2024-10-16 08:00 @ 0.122024-10-26 00:00 @ 0.139d 16h$178.20+9.01%signal
89long2024-10-28 20:00 @ 0.162024-11-01 08:00 @ 0.163d 12h−$46.43-2.30%signal
90long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 0.212024-11-06 08:00 @ 0.194h−$181.67-9.04%stop loss
91long2024-11-10 04:00 @ 0.232024-11-17 04:00 @ 0.357d$1,038.56+52.85%signal
92long2024-11-23 04:00 @ 0.432024-11-25 20:00 @ 0.392d 16h−$218.07-9.80%stop loss
93long2024-12-08 04:00 @ 0.472024-12-09 08:00 @ 0.431d 4h−$161.03-7.42%stop loss
94short2024-12-19 00:00 @ 0.362025-01-02 04:00 @ 0.3314d 4h$158.32+7.43%signal
95long2025-01-03 12:00 @ 0.352025-01-07 16:00 @ 0.364d 4h$88.70+4.09%signal
96long2025-01-17 08:00 @ 0.402025-01-19 08:00 @ 0.372d−$140.64-6.42%stop loss
97short2025-01-27 04:00 @ 0.332025-01-31 16:00 @ 0.344d 12h−$66.06-3.06%signal
98short2025-02-02 04:00 @ 0.302025-02-11 08:00 @ 0.279d 4h$228.77+10.69%signal
99long2025-02-14 12:00 @ 0.272025-02-17 16:00 @ 0.263d 4h−$125.58-5.72%stop loss
100short2025-02-21 20:00 @ 0.242025-03-02 20:00 @ 0.239d$70.87+3.27%signal
101short2025-03-09 16:00 @ 0.182025-03-15 16:00 @ 0.186d$4.31+0.20%signal
102long2025-03-20 00:00 @ 0.182025-03-20 16:00 @ 0.1716h−$116.38-5.33%stop loss
103long2025-03-24 16:00 @ 0.182025-03-29 00:00 @ 0.184d 8h−$91.34-4.24%stop loss
104short2025-04-03 16:00 @ 0.162025-04-04 12:00 @ 0.1720h−$149.35-7.00%stop loss
105short2025-04-06 20:00 @ 0.152025-04-09 20:00 @ 0.163d−$137.97-6.58%stop loss
106long2025-04-22 16:00 @ 0.172025-04-30 16:00 @ 0.178d−$31.90-1.55%signal
107short2025-05-06 12:00 @ 0.172025-05-06 20:00 @ 0.178h−$89.44-4.36%stop loss
108long2025-05-08 16:00 @ 0.192025-05-25 12:00 @ 0.2216d 20h$311.70+15.35%signal
109short2025-05-30 04:00 @ 0.212025-06-10 00:00 @ 0.1910d 20h$137.85+6.54%signal
110long2025-06-11 08:00 @ 0.202025-06-11 20:00 @ 0.1912h−$111.39-5.20%stop loss
111short2025-06-17 16:00 @ 0.172025-06-30 00:00 @ 0.1712d 8h−$20.00-0.95%signal
112long2025-07-02 20:00 @ 0.172025-07-04 12:00 @ 0.161d 16h−$84.84-4.02%stop loss
113long2025-07-10 00:00 @ 0.182025-07-15 04:00 @ 0.195d 4h$106.71+5.11%signal
114long2025-07-18 04:00 @ 0.242025-07-29 16:00 @ 0.2211d 12h−$156.94-7.42%stop loss
115short2025-07-30 12:00 @ 0.222025-08-07 12:00 @ 0.218d$17.94+0.86%signal
116long2025-08-09 00:00 @ 0.232025-08-12 08:00 @ 0.223d 8h−$110.28-5.30%stop loss
117long2025-08-14 04:00 @ 0.252025-08-14 08:00 @ 0.244h−$118.47-5.77%stop loss
118short2025-08-19 04:00 @ 0.222025-08-22 12:00 @ 0.233d 8h−$127.09-6.28%stop loss
119long2025-09-07 16:00 @ 0.222025-09-22 04:00 @ 0.2514d 12h$213.28+10.71%signal
120short2025-09-22 08:00 @ 0.242025-09-29 00:00 @ 0.246d 16h$2.17+0.11%signal
121long2025-10-02 04:00 @ 0.252025-10-08 04:00 @ 0.246d−$78.41-3.83%signal
122short2025-10-10 20:00 @ 0.232025-10-20 04:00 @ 0.209d 8h$282.03+13.92%signal
123long2025-10-27 00:00 @ 0.212025-10-28 12:00 @ 0.201d 12h−$82.38-3.93%stop loss
124short2025-10-30 16:00 @ 0.182025-11-07 20:00 @ 0.188d 4h−$1.70-0.08%signal
125short2025-11-17 20:00 @ 0.152025-11-18 16:00 @ 0.1620h−$127.71-6.15%stop loss
126short2025-11-19 20:00 @ 0.152025-11-20 00:00 @ 0.164h−$130.48-6.38%stop loss
127short2025-11-21 08:00 @ 0.142025-11-24 16:00 @ 0.153d 8h−$154.71-7.69%stop loss
128short2025-12-01 16:00 @ 0.132025-12-02 12:00 @ 0.1420h−$91.81-4.65%stop loss
129short2025-12-15 16:00 @ 0.132025-12-22 16:00 @ 0.137d−$56.84-2.92%signal
130short2025-12-31 20:00 @ 0.122026-01-01 08:00 @ 0.1212h−$67.77-3.50%stop loss
131long2026-01-02 16:00 @ 0.142026-01-08 12:00 @ 0.145d 20h$74.90+3.90%signal
132short2026-01-19 00:00 @ 0.132026-01-28 00:00 @ 0.139d$77.59+4.01%signal
133short2026-01-29 16:00 @ 0.122026-02-14 12:00 @ 0.1015d 20h$256.89+13.13%signal
134long2026-02-14 16:00 @ 0.102026-02-16 12:00 @ 0.101d 20h−$107.69-5.33%stop loss
135short2026-02-23 04:00 @ 0.092026-02-23 08:00 @ 0.104h−$91.73-4.60%stop loss
136long2026-02-25 20:00 @ 0.102026-02-26 08:00 @ 0.1012h−$103.73-5.26%stop loss
137short2026-02-28 08:00 @ 0.092026-02-28 20:00 @ 0.0912h−$109.81-5.65%stop loss
138short2026-03-22 00:00 @ 0.092026-03-23 08:00 @ 0.101d 8h−$84.66-4.42%stop loss
139long2026-04-08 00:00 @ 0.092026-04-09 00:00 @ 0.091d−$61.97-3.27%stop loss
140long2026-04-16 20:00 @ 0.102026-04-18 08:00 @ 0.101d 12h−$73.39-3.90%stop loss
141long2026-04-29 04:00 @ 0.102026-05-07 16:00 @ 0.118d 12h$117.28+6.30%signal
142short2026-05-18 08:00 @ 0.102026-07-02 16:00 @ 0.0745d 8h$542.42+28.67%signal
143long2026-07-04 16:00 @ 0.082026-07-05 00:00 @ 0.088h−$74.71-3.69%stop loss
144short2026-07-23 16:00 @ 0.072026-07-25 16:00 @ 0.072d−$63.99-3.19%stop loss
145long2026-08-12 00:00 @ 0.072026-08-12 12:00 @ 0.0712h−$47.99-2.41%stop loss
146long2026-08-20 00:00 @ 0.082026-08-26 00:00 @ 0.096d$273.94+13.83%signal
147short2026-08-31 00:00 @ 0.082026-09-01 00:00 @ 0.081d−$31.63-1.54%end of data

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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