[Famous-Q] Turtle System 2 (55/20)

public
@djgambhir

LINKUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 10.9ms

Net P&L
-20.71%
−$2,071.34
Max drawdown
-35.98%
Max run-up
+37.46%
Trades
158
27.2% win rate
Profit factor
0.83
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -35.98%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-15.13%-31.09%9127%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-6.13%-23.21%3529%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-0.48%-14.17%3225%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.23
Sortino
-0.33
Calmar
-0.13
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.58
CAGR
-4.85%
Exposure
47.4%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$13.11 · -0.46%
Average win / loss
$237.89 / −$106.96
Payoff ratio
2.22
Largest win / loss
$1,706.70 / −$320.48
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
10 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-35.98%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
1573 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$335.88
Funding
−$244.50
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
58
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-42.20%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 158 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-50.73%-21.49%+34.04%
Max drawdown-54.83%-36.79%-19.87%

78% of histories lost money, and 53% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -35.98%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh55 length
55
ll55 length
55
hh20 length
20
ll20 length
20
atr20 length
20
Stop loss (× atr20)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

LINKUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

158 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1long2022-01-05 04:00 @ 25.592022-01-05 20:00 @ 23.8516h−$172.09-6.88%stop loss
2long2022-01-09 20:00 @ 27.872022-01-13 16:00 @ 24.953d 20h−$262.36-10.68%stop loss
3short2022-01-18 12:00 @ 23.212022-01-30 08:00 @ 17.6111d 20h$579.17+24.22%signal
4long2022-02-07 04:00 @ 18.472022-02-10 12:00 @ 17.353d 8h−$159.44-6.29%stop loss
5short2022-02-14 04:00 @ 15.342022-02-15 00:00 @ 16.3720h−$168.51-6.75%stop loss
6short2022-02-19 12:00 @ 14.992022-03-01 16:00 @ 15.3710d 4h−$61.45-2.50%signal
7short2022-03-07 04:00 @ 12.822022-03-09 00:00 @ 13.711d 20h−$170.26-6.98%stop loss
8long2022-03-16 20:00 @ 14.452022-04-06 00:00 @ 16.7320d 4h$359.06+14.98%signal
9short2022-04-06 16:00 @ 15.732022-04-17 08:00 @ 14.4910d 16h$199.83+8.04%signal
10short2022-04-18 08:00 @ 13.192022-04-18 16:00 @ 13.868h−$129.78-5.12%stop loss
11short2022-04-25 04:00 @ 13.092022-05-04 20:00 @ 12.029d 16h$206.31+8.24%signal
12short2022-05-08 00:00 @ 10.202022-05-16 00:00 @ 7.968d$554.83+21.71%signal
13short2022-05-26 12:00 @ 6.442022-05-30 00:00 @ 6.993d 12h−$235.43-8.74%stop loss
14long2022-06-06 04:00 @ 7.992022-06-07 00:00 @ 7.5320h−$156.97-5.96%stop loss
15long2022-06-07 20:00 @ 8.402022-06-11 08:00 @ 7.783d 12h−$194.85-7.51%stop loss
16short2022-06-12 04:00 @ 6.602022-06-16 00:00 @ 7.323d 20h−$284.62-11.17%signal
17short2022-06-30 08:00 @ 6.042022-07-05 00:00 @ 6.434d 16h−$161.79-6.53%signal
18short2022-07-13 00:00 @ 5.942022-07-14 00:00 @ 6.281d−$138.83-5.70%stop loss
19long2022-07-18 08:00 @ 6.782022-07-25 20:00 @ 6.397d 12h−$144.79-6.03%stop loss
20short2022-07-26 16:00 @ 6.152022-07-27 16:00 @ 6.571d−$165.38-6.99%stop loss
21long2022-07-29 04:00 @ 7.632022-08-02 00:00 @ 7.163d 20h−$149.06-6.42%stop loss
22long2022-08-07 20:00 @ 8.222022-08-17 16:00 @ 8.099d 20h−$45.62-2.00%signal
23short2022-08-19 00:00 @ 7.642022-08-23 16:00 @ 7.234d 16h$117.59+5.17%signal
24short2022-08-26 20:00 @ 6.652022-08-30 08:00 @ 6.783d 12h−$50.69-2.20%signal
25long2022-09-09 04:00 @ 7.762022-09-13 12:00 @ 7.354d 8h−$125.65-5.48%stop loss
26short2022-09-20 20:00 @ 6.952022-09-23 20:00 @ 7.423d−$154.66-6.84%stop loss
27long2022-09-27 04:00 @ 8.192022-09-27 16:00 @ 7.6912h−$138.96-6.26%stop loss
28short2022-10-13 04:00 @ 6.962022-10-17 08:00 @ 7.284d 4h−$100.07-4.58%stop loss
29long2022-10-29 20:00 @ 7.542022-11-03 00:00 @ 7.434d 4h−$37.76-1.75%signal
30long2022-11-04 20:00 @ 8.592022-11-07 04:00 @ 8.052d 8h−$137.60-6.39%stop loss
31long2022-11-23 20:00 @ 6.752022-12-04 00:00 @ 7.2310d 4h$145.22+6.86%signal
32short2022-12-12 04:00 @ 6.562022-12-13 12:00 @ 6.811d 8h−$83.43-3.87%stop loss
33short2022-12-16 12:00 @ 6.252022-12-27 00:00 @ 6.0510d 12h$71.27+3.34%signal
34short2022-12-30 08:00 @ 5.442022-12-31 12:00 @ 5.621d 4h−$70.86-3.29%stop loss
35long2023-01-09 00:00 @ 5.962023-01-25 00:00 @ 6.6616d$232.84+10.92%signal
36long2023-01-27 20:00 @ 7.412023-01-30 08:00 @ 6.982d 12h−$130.06-5.94%stop loss
37long2023-02-09 12:00 @ 7.542023-02-09 20:00 @ 7.128h−$121.00-5.60%stop loss
38short2023-02-13 12:00 @ 6.552023-02-15 12:00 @ 6.922d−$119.31-5.61%stop loss
39long2023-02-18 16:00 @ 8.192023-02-20 00:00 @ 7.771d 8h−$109.65-5.22%stop loss
40long2023-02-20 08:00 @ 8.382023-02-21 04:00 @ 7.9020h−$120.36-5.81%stop loss
41short2023-03-03 04:00 @ 6.812023-03-13 16:00 @ 6.7610d 12h$14.44+0.71%signal
42long2023-03-14 16:00 @ 7.152023-03-14 20:00 @ 6.764h−$112.65-5.51%stop loss
43long2023-03-18 00:00 @ 7.212023-03-25 20:00 @ 6.987d 20h−$68.42-3.39%signal
44long2023-04-14 04:00 @ 7.712023-04-20 00:00 @ 7.755d 20h$3.50+0.18%signal
45short2023-04-21 20:00 @ 7.072023-04-26 00:00 @ 7.274d 4h−$58.70-2.93%signal
46short2023-05-08 04:00 @ 6.722023-05-15 08:00 @ 6.677d 4h$15.78+0.79%signal
47long2023-05-17 20:00 @ 6.782023-05-18 16:00 @ 6.5620h−$65.69-3.30%stop loss
48short2023-05-24 16:00 @ 6.262023-05-27 16:00 @ 6.403d−$42.30-2.14%signal
49long2023-05-29 00:00 @ 6.632023-05-31 04:00 @ 6.482d 4h−$48.63-2.48%stop loss
50short2023-06-05 16:00 @ 6.082023-06-06 16:00 @ 6.271d−$61.65-3.16%stop loss
51short2023-06-10 04:00 @ 5.772023-06-14 20:00 @ 5.454d 16h$107.46+5.55%signal
52long2023-06-21 20:00 @ 5.522023-06-28 08:00 @ 5.976d 12h$153.49+7.82%signal
53long2023-07-02 00:00 @ 6.502023-07-05 12:00 @ 6.293d 12h−$70.16-3.51%signal
54long2023-07-13 16:00 @ 6.612023-07-24 12:00 @ 7.6010d 20h$286.73+14.46%signal
55short2023-08-03 20:00 @ 7.192023-08-08 00:00 @ 7.334d 4h−$37.67-1.83%signal
56short2023-08-18 00:00 @ 6.182023-08-23 16:00 @ 6.355d 16h−$57.36-2.80%signal
57short2023-09-11 12:00 @ 5.882023-09-12 08:00 @ 6.0820h−$70.56-3.47%stop loss
58long2023-09-18 04:00 @ 6.622023-10-02 16:00 @ 7.6714d 12h$310.50+15.42%signal
59long2023-10-21 08:00 @ 7.842023-11-14 00:00 @ 14.3723d 16h$1,706.70+81.63%signal
60short2023-11-17 16:00 @ 12.962023-11-19 04:00 @ 14.211d 12h−$245.33-9.75%stop loss
61long2023-12-02 04:00 @ 15.352023-12-11 00:00 @ 14.668d 20h−$127.36-5.19%stop loss
62long2023-12-23 16:00 @ 15.842023-12-26 16:00 @ 15.043d−$134.95-5.57%stop loss
63long2023-12-27 16:00 @ 16.162023-12-29 20:00 @ 15.202d 4h−$154.48-6.46%stop loss
64short2024-01-03 16:00 @ 14.192024-01-10 20:00 @ 15.257d 4h−$173.35-7.37%stop loss
65short2024-01-23 12:00 @ 13.982024-01-28 04:00 @ 14.564d 16h−$94.75-4.10%signal
66long2024-02-01 16:00 @ 16.702024-02-20 16:00 @ 18.9819d$290.43+12.71%signal
67short2024-02-23 04:00 @ 17.932024-02-25 12:00 @ 18.852d 8h−$120.38-5.11%stop loss
68long2024-03-02 08:00 @ 21.252024-03-03 04:00 @ 20.1120h−$134.16-5.76%stop loss
69short2024-03-05 20:00 @ 17.742024-03-06 04:00 @ 19.408h−$215.55-9.40%stop loss
70short2024-03-16 20:00 @ 18.212024-03-25 16:00 @ 19.338d 20h−$131.89-5.89%signal
71long2024-03-26 04:00 @ 19.792024-03-29 04:00 @ 18.843d−$115.73-5.24%stop loss
72short2024-04-01 16:00 @ 17.962024-04-08 12:00 @ 18.626d 20h−$77.48-3.56%signal
73short2024-04-12 20:00 @ 14.472024-04-20 12:00 @ 14.167d 16h$46.56+2.16%signal
74long2024-04-22 04:00 @ 15.832024-04-24 12:00 @ 14.892d 8h−$131.52-6.06%stop loss
75short2024-04-30 12:00 @ 13.192024-05-03 12:00 @ 13.873d−$110.95-5.19%stop loss
76long2024-05-06 08:00 @ 14.742024-05-07 16:00 @ 14.151d 8h−$86.65-4.11%stop loss
77short2024-05-12 00:00 @ 13.302024-05-15 16:00 @ 13.813d 16h−$82.33-3.94%stop loss
78long2024-05-16 20:00 @ 14.992024-05-23 16:00 @ 16.126d 20h$150.06+7.26%signal
79long2024-05-24 04:00 @ 17.502024-05-31 16:00 @ 17.577d 12h$0.87+0.04%signal
80short2024-06-06 20:00 @ 17.262024-06-25 20:00 @ 14.1819d$381.75+18.13%signal
81short2024-07-05 00:00 @ 12.532024-07-08 08:00 @ 13.363d 8h−$147.73-6.71%stop loss
82long2024-07-15 04:00 @ 13.802024-07-18 16:00 @ 13.523d 12h−$47.05-2.17%signal
83long2024-07-22 00:00 @ 14.812024-07-22 12:00 @ 14.1412h−$99.57-4.63%stop loss
84short2024-07-25 04:00 @ 12.962024-07-26 16:00 @ 13.591d 12h−$105.99-4.98%stop loss
85short2024-08-01 20:00 @ 12.412024-08-09 00:00 @ 10.757d 4h$278.70+13.27%signal
86long2024-08-21 20:00 @ 11.122024-08-27 12:00 @ 11.625d 16h$92.36+4.26%signal
87short2024-09-02 00:00 @ 10.362024-09-09 08:00 @ 10.627d 8h−$57.75-2.63%signal
88long2024-09-13 12:00 @ 10.932024-09-16 00:00 @ 10.502d 12h−$89.45-4.11%stop loss
89long2024-09-20 08:00 @ 11.692024-09-21 00:00 @ 11.2616h−$83.01-3.85%stop loss
90long2024-09-24 20:00 @ 11.852024-09-30 04:00 @ 12.265d 8h$68.33+3.20%signal
91short2024-10-02 20:00 @ 10.592024-10-04 16:00 @ 11.191d 20h−$124.15-5.77%stop loss
92long2024-10-20 16:00 @ 11.892024-10-23 08:00 @ 11.482d 16h−$77.74-3.66%stop loss
93short2024-10-28 04:00 @ 10.772024-10-29 00:00 @ 11.3120h−$105.27-5.01%stop loss
94long2024-10-31 00:00 @ 12.402024-10-31 12:00 @ 11.8512h−$93.84-4.52%stop loss
95short2024-11-03 16:00 @ 10.692024-11-06 00:00 @ 11.212d 8h−$100.47-4.89%stop loss
96long2024-11-07 04:00 @ 12.562024-11-14 16:00 @ 12.967d 12h$52.72+2.60%signal
97long2024-11-23 00:00 @ 16.592024-12-10 00:00 @ 22.2417d$651.96+31.95%signal
98long2024-12-12 08:00 @ 28.842024-12-17 16:00 @ 27.615d 8h−$100.29-4.55%signal
99short2024-12-20 12:00 @ 20.022024-12-20 16:00 @ 22.954h−$320.48-14.71%stop loss
100short2024-12-30 00:00 @ 20.942025-01-02 04:00 @ 21.893d 4h−$94.96-4.53%signal
101long2025-01-06 04:00 @ 24.062025-01-07 12:00 @ 22.811d 8h−$110.49-5.33%stop loss
102short2025-01-13 08:00 @ 19.102025-01-14 08:00 @ 20.281d−$128.70-6.29%stop loss
103long2025-01-16 20:00 @ 23.712025-01-19 08:00 @ 22.282d 12h−$124.66-6.19%stop loss
104long2025-01-19 20:00 @ 26.042025-01-19 20:00 @ 23.910m−$163.97-8.27%stop loss
105short2025-02-02 12:00 @ 22.112025-02-11 08:00 @ 19.628d 20h$217.03+11.17%signal
106short2025-02-21 20:00 @ 17.272025-03-02 20:00 @ 16.959d$34.92+1.75%signal
107short2025-03-10 20:00 @ 12.802025-03-14 08:00 @ 14.133d 12h−$209.61-10.45%stop loss
108long2025-03-20 00:00 @ 15.022025-03-20 16:00 @ 14.1416h−$116.59-5.97%stop loss
109long2025-03-24 12:00 @ 15.192025-03-28 04:00 @ 14.533d 16h−$88.03-4.57%stop loss
110short2025-03-29 12:00 @ 13.652025-04-01 16:00 @ 14.313d 4h−$93.72-4.93%signal
111short2025-04-03 00:00 @ 12.892025-04-12 16:00 @ 13.129d 16h−$32.52-1.73%signal
112long2025-04-20 20:00 @ 13.402025-04-22 00:00 @ 12.851d 4h−$79.54-4.25%stop loss
113long2025-04-22 16:00 @ 13.852025-04-30 16:00 @ 14.118d$29.43+1.59%signal
114short2025-05-05 12:00 @ 13.732025-05-08 00:00 @ 14.312d 12h−$81.36-4.38%stop loss
115long2025-05-08 16:00 @ 15.222025-05-17 04:00 @ 15.508d 12h$28.10+1.53%signal
116short2025-05-30 04:00 @ 14.692025-06-10 00:00 @ 14.3510d 20h$41.31+2.24%signal
117long2025-06-10 12:00 @ 15.162025-06-12 04:00 @ 14.541d 16h−$78.27-4.22%stop loss
118short2025-06-20 20:00 @ 12.562025-06-24 04:00 @ 12.953d 8h−$57.66-3.14%signal
119long2025-07-03 08:00 @ 13.882025-07-04 08:00 @ 13.331d−$74.38-4.08%stop loss
120long2025-07-09 08:00 @ 14.152025-07-23 16:00 @ 18.4914d 8h$542.38+30.09%signal
121short2025-08-02 00:00 @ 16.062025-08-04 16:00 @ 16.922d 16h−$104.73-5.40%signal
122long2025-08-08 00:00 @ 18.462025-08-25 20:00 @ 23.6517d 20h$524.71+27.44%signal
123short2025-09-02 00:00 @ 22.502025-09-03 12:00 @ 23.771d 12h−$115.94-5.67%stop loss
124short2025-09-06 20:00 @ 21.892025-09-08 08:00 @ 22.841d 12h−$88.49-4.39%stop loss
125long2025-09-12 00:00 @ 24.462025-09-15 08:00 @ 23.543d 8h−$78.40-3.94%stop loss
126short2025-09-22 04:00 @ 22.162025-09-29 00:00 @ 21.676d 20h$43.60+2.21%signal
127long2025-10-01 16:00 @ 22.402025-10-06 00:00 @ 21.514d 8h−$82.30-4.15%stop loss
128long2025-10-06 20:00 @ 23.442025-10-07 12:00 @ 22.5016h−$80.92-4.12%stop loss
129short2025-10-10 20:00 @ 20.472025-10-20 08:00 @ 18.629d 12h$175.69+9.04%signal
130short2025-10-30 20:00 @ 16.382025-10-31 12:00 @ 17.4316h−$129.49-6.52%stop loss
131short2025-11-03 08:00 @ 16.112025-11-07 20:00 @ 16.064d 12h$4.81+0.25%signal
132short2025-11-15 00:00 @ 13.802025-11-24 20:00 @ 12.999d 20h$114.55+5.86%signal
133long2025-12-03 04:00 @ 13.942025-12-07 12:00 @ 13.254d 8h−$99.97-5.04%stop loss
134short2025-12-15 16:00 @ 12.772025-12-22 16:00 @ 12.807d−$5.84-0.30%signal
135long2026-01-02 20:00 @ 13.282026-01-19 00:00 @ 13.3016d 4h−$5.82-0.30%signal
136short2026-01-19 04:00 @ 12.852026-02-14 12:00 @ 9.0326d 8h$583.18+29.82%signal
137long2026-02-14 20:00 @ 9.162026-02-15 16:00 @ 8.7420h−$98.47-4.68%stop loss
138short2026-02-23 04:00 @ 8.252026-02-25 00:00 @ 8.601d 20h−$90.16-4.34%stop loss
139long2026-02-25 16:00 @ 9.282026-02-26 16:00 @ 8.861d−$96.77-4.71%stop loss
140long2026-03-16 04:00 @ 9.692026-03-18 12:00 @ 9.332d 8h−$79.52-3.92%stop loss
141short2026-03-22 00:00 @ 8.822026-03-23 08:00 @ 9.161d 8h−$80.07-3.98%stop loss
142short2026-03-29 00:00 @ 8.432026-03-30 08:00 @ 8.761d 8h−$81.37-4.09%stop loss
143long2026-04-08 00:00 @ 9.292026-04-08 20:00 @ 8.9320h−$78.23-3.97%stop loss
144long2026-04-16 16:00 @ 9.452026-04-19 04:00 @ 9.102d 12h−$76.17-3.90%stop loss
145short2026-04-29 16:00 @ 9.092026-05-04 00:00 @ 9.354d 8h−$58.41-3.02%stop loss
146long2026-05-05 12:00 @ 9.732026-05-12 12:00 @ 10.267d$98.01+5.11%signal
147short2026-05-16 12:00 @ 9.642026-05-22 12:00 @ 9.896d−$50.02-2.58%signal
148short2026-05-23 08:00 @ 9.122026-05-23 20:00 @ 9.5012h−$82.72-4.29%stop loss
149short2026-05-28 04:00 @ 8.882026-05-30 00:00 @ 9.241d 20h−$79.46-4.16%stop loss
150short2026-06-02 16:00 @ 8.562026-06-13 16:00 @ 8.0211d$118.10+6.25%signal
151long2026-06-15 00:00 @ 8.182026-06-18 12:00 @ 7.873d 12h−$74.83-3.90%stop loss
152short2026-06-23 08:00 @ 7.662026-07-02 04:00 @ 7.548d 20h$29.28+1.54%signal
153long2026-07-02 16:00 @ 7.792026-07-08 04:00 @ 7.695d 12h−$27.63-1.45%signal
154long2026-07-14 16:00 @ 8.302026-07-17 12:00 @ 8.022d 20h−$66.38-3.49%stop loss
155long2026-07-21 08:00 @ 8.742026-07-23 12:00 @ 8.492d 4h−$55.15-2.93%stop loss
156long2026-07-27 00:00 @ 8.822026-07-27 12:00 @ 8.6012h−$49.46-2.65%stop loss
157short2026-07-31 16:00 @ 8.112026-08-02 04:00 @ 8.381d 12h−$64.89-3.49%stop loss
158long2026-08-11 08:00 @ 8.472026-08-31 00:00 @ 11.1319d 16h$565.86+30.74%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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