[Famous-Q] Faber 200-bar SMA timing
public
@djgambhirNEIROUSDT · 4h · 2024-10-19 → 2026-09-01 · 4,090 bars in 1.5ms
Net P&L
-5.53%
−$553.50
Max drawdown
-28.27%
Max run-up
+52.87%
Trades
59
10.2% win rate
Profit factor
0.87
2024-10-19drawdown · worst -28.27%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
| Segment | Period | Return | Max drawdown | Trades | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training | 2024-10-19 → 2025-12-02 | -5.63% | -26.44% | 32 | 13% |
| Validation | 2025-12-02 → 2026-04-17 | +5.19% | -10.35% | 11 | 9% |
| Out-of-sample | 2026-04-17 → 2026-09-01 | -4.83% | -13.29% | 16 | 6% |
Risk-adjusted
- Sharpe
- 0.06
- Sortino
- 0.10
- Calmar
- -0.11
- Return ÷ max drawdown
- -0.20
- CAGR
- -3.01%
- Exposure
- 28.9%
Per trade
- Expectancy
- −$9.38 · -0.14%
- Average win / loss
- $634.19 / −$82.24
- Payoff ratio
- 7.71
- Largest win / loss
- $1,862.95 / −$659.66
- Longest losing streak(winning: 2)
- 18 trades
Drawdown over time
- Max drawdown
- -28.27%
- Longest time under water(still going at the end)
- 470 days
- Worst drawdown recovered in
- not recovered
Costs and mechanics
- Fees paid
- −$133.73
- Funding
- −$108.44
- Liquidations
- 0
- Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
- 199
- Benchmark(buy and hold)
- -95.58%
Monte Carlo
1,000 alternative histories, each 59 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.
this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
| Unlucky (5%) | Typical | Lucky (95%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return | -35.59% | -7.73% | +50.62% |
| Max drawdown | -37.80% | -23.18% | -11.96% |
62% of histories lost money, and 27% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -28.27%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.
Settings
- sma200 length
- 200
- Leverage (×)
- 1
- Position size (% of equity)
- 25
NEIROUSDT with every trade
Loading prices…
▲ long opened▼ short opened● closed at a profit● closed at a loss
Trades
59 trades
| # | Side | Entry | Exit | Held | P&L | Return | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | long | 2024-10-19 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-10-24 12:00 @ 0.00 | 4d 20h | −$659.66 | -26.39% | signal |
| 2 | long | 2024-10-25 08:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-10-25 20:00 @ 0.00 | 12h | −$85.69 | -3.67% | signal |
| 3 | long | 2024-10-26 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-10-26 16:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$136.45 | -5.90% | signal |
| 4 | long | 2024-10-27 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-10-27 12:00 @ 0.00 | 8h | −$47.71 | -2.09% | signal |
| 5 | long | 2024-10-27 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-10-28 16:00 @ 0.00 | 1d | −$24.43 | -1.08% | signal |
| 6 | long | 2024-10-29 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-11-01 08:00 @ 0.00 | 3d 8h | −$156.79 | -6.93% | signal |
| 7 | long | 2024-11-06 08:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-11-20 16:00 @ 0.00 | 14d 8h | $191.09 | +8.60% | signal |
| 8 | long | 2024-11-21 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-11-22 08:00 @ 0.00 | 16h | −$150.43 | -6.63% | signal |
| 9 | long | 2024-11-23 08:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-11-23 20:00 @ 0.00 | 12h | −$89.26 | -4.00% | signal |
| 10 | long | 2024-11-24 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-11-24 08:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$31.08 | -1.41% | signal |
| 11 | long | 2024-11-25 08:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-11-25 12:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$32.49 | -1.48% | signal |
| 12 | long | 2024-11-29 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-11-30 08:00 @ 0.00 | 16h | −$41.17 | -1.88% | signal |
| 13 | long | 2024-12-01 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-12-02 04:00 @ 0.00 | 12h | −$89.38 | -4.09% | signal |
| 14 | long | 2024-12-07 20:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-12-08 00:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$65.66 | -3.04% | signal |
| 15 | long | 2024-12-09 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2024-12-09 20:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$117.64 | -5.48% | signal |
| 16 | long | 2025-02-27 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-02-28 04:00 @ 0.00 | 1d 4h | −$71.25 | -3.37% | signal |
| 17 | long | 2025-02-28 08:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-02-28 12:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$19.42 | -0.93% | signal |
| 18 | long | 2025-02-28 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-03-01 12:00 @ 0.00 | 20h | −$263.56 | -12.59% | signal |
| 19 | long | 2025-03-02 20:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-03-03 00:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$56.33 | -2.78% | signal |
| 20 | long | 2025-03-26 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-03-26 16:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$149.86 | -7.44% | signal |
| 21 | long | 2025-04-22 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-05-31 00:00 @ 0.00 | 38d 8h | $1,862.95 | +94.29% | signal |
| 22 | long | 2025-05-31 08:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-06-04 20:00 @ 0.00 | 4d 12h | $85.84 | +3.52% | signal |
| 23 | long | 2025-06-10 08:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-06-12 00:00 @ 0.00 | 1d 16h | −$18.74 | -0.76% | signal |
| 24 | long | 2025-07-02 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-07-24 08:00 @ 0.00 | 21d 16h | $173.18 | +7.05% | signal |
| 25 | long | 2025-07-24 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-07-25 04:00 @ 0.00 | 16h | −$114.86 | -4.59% | signal |
| 26 | long | 2025-07-25 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-07-25 16:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$65.71 | -2.66% | signal |
| 27 | long | 2025-07-26 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-07-27 00:00 @ 0.00 | 1d | −$64.19 | -2.61% | signal |
| 28 | long | 2025-07-27 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-07-28 16:00 @ 0.00 | 1d 12h | −$71.13 | -2.91% | signal |
| 29 | long | 2025-09-09 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-09-09 16:00 @ 0.00 | 12h | −$95.40 | -3.94% | signal |
| 30 | long | 2025-09-12 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-09-12 12:00 @ 0.00 | 12h | −$68.83 | -2.87% | signal |
| 31 | long | 2025-09-12 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-09-15 08:00 @ 0.00 | 2d 16h | −$49.66 | -2.09% | signal |
| 32 | long | 2025-09-17 20:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-09-19 08:00 @ 0.00 | 1d 12h | −$39.27 | -1.66% | signal |
| 33 | long | 2025-12-07 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-12-07 08:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$11.79 | -0.50% | signal |
| 34 | long | 2025-12-08 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-12-08 20:00 @ 0.00 | 8h | −$77.05 | -3.27% | signal |
| 35 | long | 2025-12-09 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-12-09 04:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$46.41 | -1.99% | signal |
| 36 | long | 2025-12-09 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-12-10 12:00 @ 0.00 | 20h | −$85.51 | -3.68% | signal |
| 37 | long | 2025-12-10 20:00 @ 0.00 | 2025-12-11 00:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$107.33 | -4.66% | signal |
| 38 | long | 2026-01-02 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-01-19 00:00 @ 0.00 | 17d | −$135.29 | -5.94% | signal |
| 39 | long | 2026-01-21 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-01-22 08:00 @ 0.00 | 16h | −$39.78 | -1.77% | signal |
| 40 | long | 2026-03-13 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-03-13 20:00 @ 0.00 | 20h | −$60.97 | -2.73% | signal |
| 41 | long | 2026-03-14 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-03-14 08:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$57.65 | -2.60% | signal |
| 42 | long | 2026-03-16 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-03-18 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2d 16h | −$61.78 | -2.80% | signal |
| 43 | long | 2026-04-14 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-05-16 08:00 @ 0.00 | 32d 8h | $675.48 | +30.87% | signal |
| 44 | long | 2026-05-20 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-05-23 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2d 8h | −$103.43 | -4.39% | signal |
| 45 | long | 2026-05-23 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-05-23 08:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$90.90 | -3.90% | signal |
| 46 | long | 2026-05-23 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-05-25 00:00 @ 0.00 | 1d 8h | −$26.36 | -1.14% | signal |
| 47 | long | 2026-05-25 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-05-26 00:00 @ 0.00 | 20h | −$22.21 | -0.96% | signal |
| 48 | long | 2026-07-04 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-07-04 08:00 @ 0.00 | 8h | −$52.91 | -2.30% | signal |
| 49 | long | 2026-07-04 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-07-04 20:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$36.21 | -1.59% | signal |
| 50 | long | 2026-07-05 20:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-07-06 12:00 @ 0.00 | 16h | −$92.74 | -4.08% | signal |
| 51 | long | 2026-07-06 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-07-07 04:00 @ 0.00 | 12h | −$62.16 | -2.76% | signal |
| 52 | long | 2026-07-07 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-07-07 16:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$44.91 | -2.01% | signal |
| 53 | long | 2026-07-26 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-07-26 16:00 @ 0.00 | 12h | −$96.55 | -4.34% | signal |
| 54 | long | 2026-07-27 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-07-27 08:00 @ 0.00 | 8h | −$19.91 | -0.91% | signal |
| 55 | long | 2026-08-01 00:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-08-01 04:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$65.53 | -2.99% | signal |
| 56 | long | 2026-08-01 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-08-01 16:00 @ 0.00 | 4h | −$13.74 | -0.63% | signal |
| 57 | long | 2026-08-02 04:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-08-03 04:00 @ 0.00 | 1d | −$44.31 | -2.04% | signal |
| 58 | long | 2026-08-03 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-08-05 12:00 @ 0.00 | 2d | −$27.17 | -1.26% | signal |
| 59 | long | 2026-08-05 16:00 @ 0.00 | 2026-09-01 00:00 @ 0.00 | 26d 8h | $816.61 | +37.85% | end of data |
How this was run
Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.
Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.