[Famous-Q] Faber 200-bar SMA timing

public
@djgambhir

DOGEUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 3.5ms

Net P&L
+28.37%
$2,837.50
Max drawdown
-34.67%
Max run-up
+123.70%
Trades
155
13.5% win rate
Profit factor
1.34
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -34.67%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-2.58%-34.67%10212%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+38.22%-21.81%2722%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01-4.66%-11.08%2612%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.35
Sortino
0.53
Calmar
0.16
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.82
CAGR
+5.50%
Exposure
39.4%

Per trade

Expectancy
$18.31 · +1.03%
Average win / loss
$535.66 / −$62.77
Payoff ratio
8.53
Largest win / loss
$5,263.80 / −$357.08
Longest losing streak(winning: 2)
17 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-34.67%
Longest time under water
740 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
740 days
Under water at the end
647 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$396.74
Funding
−$816.89
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
202
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-51.50%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 155 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-36.31%+18.43%+203.02%
Max drawdown-42.74%-24.98%-13.87%

37% of histories lost money, and 19% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -34.67%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

sma200 length
200
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

DOGEUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

155 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
155long2026-08-19 16:00 @ 0.072026-09-01 00:00 @ 0.0812d 8h$439.96+14.19%end of data
154long2026-08-12 00:00 @ 0.072026-08-12 16:00 @ 0.0716h−$51.71-1.66%signal
153long2026-05-21 20:00 @ 0.112026-05-22 20:00 @ 0.101d−$73.88-2.36%signal
152long2026-05-21 04:00 @ 0.112026-05-21 12:00 @ 0.108h−$44.64-1.42%signal
151long2026-05-19 08:00 @ 0.112026-05-19 12:00 @ 0.104h−$48.14-1.53%signal
150long2026-05-18 20:00 @ 0.102026-05-19 04:00 @ 0.108h−$17.02-0.54%signal
149long2026-05-18 12:00 @ 0.112026-05-18 16:00 @ 0.104h−$38.79-1.22%signal
148long2026-04-20 04:00 @ 0.092026-05-18 08:00 @ 0.1028d 4h$313.59+10.15%signal
147long2026-04-15 12:00 @ 0.092026-04-20 00:00 @ 0.094d 12h−$23.28-0.75%signal
146long2026-04-14 00:00 @ 0.092026-04-14 20:00 @ 0.0920h−$47.99-1.54%signal
145long2026-04-11 20:00 @ 0.092026-04-12 00:00 @ 0.094h−$58.40-1.87%signal
144long2026-04-10 16:00 @ 0.092026-04-11 08:00 @ 0.0916h−$20.55-0.66%signal
143long2026-04-09 20:00 @ 0.092026-04-10 00:00 @ 0.094h−$44.85-1.43%signal
142long2026-04-08 00:00 @ 0.092026-04-08 20:00 @ 0.0920h−$66.80-2.12%signal
141long2026-03-25 00:00 @ 0.102026-03-26 08:00 @ 0.091d 8h−$84.69-2.67%signal
140long2026-03-24 08:00 @ 0.102026-03-24 12:00 @ 0.094h−$38.93-1.22%signal
139long2026-03-23 20:00 @ 0.092026-03-24 00:00 @ 0.094h−$30.71-0.96%signal
138long2026-03-16 00:00 @ 0.102026-03-18 16:00 @ 0.092d 16h−$106.83-3.32%signal
137long2026-03-15 00:00 @ 0.102026-03-15 16:00 @ 0.0916h−$40.02-1.24%signal
136long2026-03-13 04:00 @ 0.102026-03-14 08:00 @ 0.091d 4h−$77.51-2.39%signal
135long2026-03-10 16:00 @ 0.102026-03-10 20:00 @ 0.094h−$149.43-4.55%signal
134long2026-03-04 16:00 @ 0.102026-03-05 04:00 @ 0.1012h−$100.18-3.02%signal
133long2026-02-15 08:00 @ 0.122026-02-15 12:00 @ 0.114h−$99.86-2.99%signal
132long2026-01-02 16:00 @ 0.142026-01-19 00:00 @ 0.1316d 8h−$103.63-3.08%signal
131long2025-10-08 16:00 @ 0.252025-10-09 04:00 @ 0.2512h−$60.75-1.80%signal
130long2025-10-01 12:00 @ 0.242025-10-08 00:00 @ 0.256d 12h$47.08+1.40%signal
129long2025-09-24 08:00 @ 0.242025-09-25 04:00 @ 0.2420h−$53.97-1.60%signal
128long2025-09-23 00:00 @ 0.242025-09-23 20:00 @ 0.2420h−$51.24-1.51%signal
127long2025-09-22 12:00 @ 0.242025-09-22 20:00 @ 0.248h−$45.36-1.33%signal
126long2025-09-07 16:00 @ 0.222025-09-22 08:00 @ 0.2414d 16h$193.76+5.77%signal
125long2025-09-03 20:00 @ 0.222025-09-04 00:00 @ 0.224h−$18.67-0.56%signal
124long2025-08-29 00:00 @ 0.222025-08-29 08:00 @ 0.218h−$152.84-4.50%signal
123long2025-08-28 08:00 @ 0.222025-08-28 16:00 @ 0.228h−$47.27-1.39%signal
122long2025-08-22 16:00 @ 0.232025-08-25 08:00 @ 0.222d 16h−$148.93-4.32%signal
121long2025-08-16 00:00 @ 0.232025-08-18 04:00 @ 0.222d 4h−$74.08-2.14%signal
120long2025-08-15 04:00 @ 0.232025-08-15 16:00 @ 0.2212h−$118.18-3.38%signal
119long2025-08-12 16:00 @ 0.232025-08-14 20:00 @ 0.222d 4h−$100.52-2.86%signal
118long2025-08-07 12:00 @ 0.212025-08-12 12:00 @ 0.225d$108.93+3.12%signal
117long2025-08-01 12:00 @ 0.212025-08-02 00:00 @ 0.2012h−$116.53-3.31%signal
116long2025-07-09 08:00 @ 0.172025-08-01 08:00 @ 0.2123d$633.00+18.82%signal
115long2025-07-07 04:00 @ 0.182025-07-07 12:00 @ 0.178h−$84.71-2.50%signal
114long2025-05-06 16:00 @ 0.172025-05-30 08:00 @ 0.2023d 16h$703.52+21.92%signal
113long2025-04-22 16:00 @ 0.172025-05-06 12:00 @ 0.1713d 20h−$133.67-4.12%signal
112long2025-03-26 08:00 @ 0.202025-03-28 08:00 @ 0.182d−$329.29-9.90%signal
111long2025-01-26 20:00 @ 0.352025-01-27 00:00 @ 0.344h−$168.20-4.99%signal
110long2025-01-25 12:00 @ 0.352025-01-26 16:00 @ 0.351d 4h$0.41+0.01%signal
109long2025-01-24 08:00 @ 0.362025-01-25 08:00 @ 0.351d−$90.51-2.67%signal
108long2025-01-24 00:00 @ 0.352025-01-24 04:00 @ 0.354h−$47.56-1.40%signal
107long2025-01-21 12:00 @ 0.382025-01-23 20:00 @ 0.352d 8h−$357.08-10.23%signal
106long2025-01-14 16:00 @ 0.352025-01-21 08:00 @ 0.346d 16h−$116.69-3.31%signal
105long2025-01-03 20:00 @ 0.382025-01-07 16:00 @ 0.363d 20h−$155.47-4.37%signal
104long2024-12-11 12:00 @ 0.402024-12-14 16:00 @ 0.403d 4h−$51.59-1.44%signal
103long2024-12-10 20:00 @ 0.382024-12-11 08:00 @ 0.3912h$12.38+0.35%signal
102long2024-10-11 12:00 @ 0.112024-12-10 16:00 @ 0.3760d 4h$5,263.80+233.64%signal
101long2024-10-09 04:00 @ 0.112024-10-10 08:00 @ 0.111d 4h−$34.02-1.50%signal
100long2024-10-04 04:00 @ 0.112024-10-08 16:00 @ 0.114d 12h−$3.73-0.16%signal
99long2024-10-03 04:00 @ 0.112024-10-03 08:00 @ 0.104h−$34.84-1.53%signal
98long2024-09-19 00:00 @ 0.102024-10-02 20:00 @ 0.1013d 20h−$2.57-0.11%signal
97long2024-09-17 16:00 @ 0.102024-09-17 20:00 @ 0.104h−$36.86-1.62%signal
96long2024-09-16 08:00 @ 0.102024-09-16 12:00 @ 0.104h−$20.23-0.88%signal
95long2024-09-13 08:00 @ 0.102024-09-16 04:00 @ 0.102d 20h−$48.02-2.09%signal
94long2024-09-12 20:00 @ 0.102024-09-13 04:00 @ 0.108h−$16.24-0.71%signal
93long2024-09-12 04:00 @ 0.102024-09-12 12:00 @ 0.108h−$10.43-0.45%signal
92long2024-09-10 20:00 @ 0.102024-09-11 04:00 @ 0.108h−$47.39-2.05%signal
91long2024-09-09 20:00 @ 0.102024-09-10 16:00 @ 0.1020h−$52.06-2.23%signal
90long2024-08-23 20:00 @ 0.112024-08-25 04:00 @ 0.111d 8h−$46.92-2.00%signal
89long2024-07-19 00:00 @ 0.122024-08-01 08:00 @ 0.1213d 8h$4.67+0.20%signal
88long2024-07-15 20:00 @ 0.122024-07-18 16:00 @ 0.122d 20h−$68.56-2.91%signal
87long2024-05-20 04:00 @ 0.152024-06-07 20:00 @ 0.1518d 16h−$62.48-2.63%signal
86long2024-05-17 04:00 @ 0.152024-05-19 20:00 @ 0.152d 16h−$30.20-1.27%signal
85long2024-05-15 16:00 @ 0.152024-05-16 20:00 @ 0.151d 4h−$26.23-1.10%signal
84long2024-05-06 08:00 @ 0.162024-05-06 12:00 @ 0.164h−$35.82-1.49%signal
83long2024-04-05 16:00 @ 0.182024-04-12 20:00 @ 0.177d 4h−$113.91-4.70%signal
82long2024-03-20 08:00 @ 0.132024-04-05 12:00 @ 0.1716d 4h$562.42+24.63%signal
81long2024-02-12 16:00 @ 0.082024-03-20 00:00 @ 0.1336d 8h$1,028.14+50.73%signal
80long2024-02-09 04:00 @ 0.082024-02-12 08:00 @ 0.083d 4h−$6.71-0.33%signal
79long2024-02-08 16:00 @ 0.082024-02-09 00:00 @ 0.088h−$23.71-1.17%signal
78long2024-01-21 12:00 @ 0.092024-01-22 00:00 @ 0.0912h−$37.35-1.83%signal
77long2024-01-21 00:00 @ 0.092024-01-21 08:00 @ 0.098h−$48.02-2.34%signal
76long2024-01-02 04:00 @ 0.092024-01-02 16:00 @ 0.0912h−$39.40-1.91%signal
75long2023-12-27 08:00 @ 0.092023-12-29 20:00 @ 0.092d 12h−$22.74-1.10%signal
74long2023-10-21 16:00 @ 0.062023-12-27 04:00 @ 0.0966d 12h$803.10+42.93%signal
73long2023-10-02 00:00 @ 0.062023-10-02 20:00 @ 0.0620h−$33.68-1.79%signal
72long2023-10-01 12:00 @ 0.062023-10-01 20:00 @ 0.068h−$25.66-1.36%signal
71long2023-09-19 16:00 @ 0.062023-09-19 20:00 @ 0.064h−$20.78-1.10%signal
70long2023-08-15 00:00 @ 0.072023-08-15 12:00 @ 0.0712h−$20.44-1.08%signal
69long2023-07-13 08:00 @ 0.062023-08-14 20:00 @ 0.0732d 12h$243.03+13.24%signal
68long2023-07-13 00:00 @ 0.072023-07-13 04:00 @ 0.064h−$11.94-0.65%signal
67long2023-07-12 00:00 @ 0.072023-07-12 20:00 @ 0.0620h−$34.36-1.86%signal
66long2023-07-10 20:00 @ 0.072023-07-11 16:00 @ 0.0620h−$32.26-1.74%signal
65long2023-07-08 08:00 @ 0.072023-07-10 04:00 @ 0.061d 20h−$17.36-0.93%signal
64long2023-07-08 00:00 @ 0.072023-07-08 04:00 @ 0.074h−$9.57-0.51%signal
63long2023-07-07 16:00 @ 0.072023-07-07 20:00 @ 0.074h−$13.89-0.74%signal
62long2023-07-07 04:00 @ 0.072023-07-07 08:00 @ 0.074h−$9.74-0.52%signal
61long2023-07-01 00:00 @ 0.072023-07-07 00:00 @ 0.066d−$51.04-2.71%signal
60long2023-06-25 04:00 @ 0.072023-06-25 16:00 @ 0.0712h−$20.11-1.07%signal
59long2023-06-23 16:00 @ 0.072023-06-24 16:00 @ 0.071d−$59.50-3.13%signal
58long2023-06-22 04:00 @ 0.072023-06-22 12:00 @ 0.078h−$79.28-4.13%signal
57long2023-03-31 12:00 @ 0.072023-04-21 20:00 @ 0.0821d 8h$93.92+4.95%signal
56long2023-03-31 04:00 @ 0.072023-03-31 08:00 @ 0.074h−$15.37-0.81%signal
55long2023-03-29 08:00 @ 0.082023-03-30 20:00 @ 0.071d 12h−$49.99-2.61%signal
54long2023-03-23 12:00 @ 0.082023-03-24 04:00 @ 0.0816h−$28.29-1.47%signal
53long2023-03-22 16:00 @ 0.082023-03-22 20:00 @ 0.074h−$136.72-7.00%signal
52long2023-02-20 04:00 @ 0.092023-02-21 12:00 @ 0.091d 8h−$33.35-1.70%signal
51long2023-02-18 16:00 @ 0.092023-02-19 20:00 @ 0.091d 4h−$25.75-1.31%signal
50long2023-02-17 20:00 @ 0.092023-02-18 12:00 @ 0.0916h−$15.96-0.81%signal
49long2023-02-15 20:00 @ 0.092023-02-17 00:00 @ 0.081d 4h−$66.95-3.37%signal
48long2023-01-12 00:00 @ 0.082023-02-09 20:00 @ 0.0828d 20h$99.85+5.08%signal
47long2022-12-14 16:00 @ 0.092022-12-14 20:00 @ 0.094h−$63.62-3.21%signal
46long2022-12-13 16:00 @ 0.092022-12-13 20:00 @ 0.094h−$41.91-2.11%signal
45long2022-12-02 08:00 @ 0.102022-12-12 04:00 @ 0.099d 20h−$250.89-12.22%signal
44long2022-11-29 04:00 @ 0.102022-12-02 04:00 @ 0.103d−$59.58-2.88%signal
43long2022-11-27 08:00 @ 0.102022-11-28 04:00 @ 0.1020h−$41.57-2.00%signal
42long2022-11-16 04:00 @ 0.092022-11-16 12:00 @ 0.098h−$37.98-1.82%signal
41long2022-11-15 04:00 @ 0.092022-11-15 20:00 @ 0.0916h−$4.07-0.19%signal
40long2022-11-14 08:00 @ 0.092022-11-14 16:00 @ 0.098h−$56.13-2.67%signal
39long2022-11-12 08:00 @ 0.092022-11-14 00:00 @ 0.081d 16h−$65.69-3.10%signal
38long2022-11-12 00:00 @ 0.092022-11-12 04:00 @ 0.084h−$75.19-3.52%signal
37long2022-11-10 16:00 @ 0.092022-11-11 16:00 @ 0.081d−$203.65-9.30%signal
36long2022-11-10 08:00 @ 0.082022-11-10 12:00 @ 0.084h−$46.50-2.11%signal
35long2022-10-25 16:00 @ 0.062022-11-10 00:00 @ 0.0715d 8h$447.20+21.41%signal
34long2022-10-04 20:00 @ 0.062022-10-10 12:00 @ 0.065d 16h−$132.39-6.24%signal
33long2022-10-01 12:00 @ 0.062022-10-01 20:00 @ 0.068h−$35.71-1.68%signal
32long2022-10-01 00:00 @ 0.062022-10-01 08:00 @ 0.068h−$16.70-0.78%signal
31long2022-09-27 04:00 @ 0.062022-09-27 16:00 @ 0.0612h−$29.90-1.40%signal
30long2022-09-23 20:00 @ 0.062022-09-25 16:00 @ 0.061d 20h−$50.30-2.33%signal
29long2022-08-25 12:00 @ 0.072022-08-25 16:00 @ 0.074h−$84.30-3.87%signal
28long2022-08-20 08:00 @ 0.072022-08-20 12:00 @ 0.074h−$22.55-1.03%signal
27long2022-08-05 00:00 @ 0.072022-08-19 12:00 @ 0.0714d 12h$39.94+1.84%signal
26long2022-08-04 16:00 @ 0.072022-08-04 20:00 @ 0.074h−$29.26-1.34%signal
25long2022-08-04 04:00 @ 0.072022-08-04 12:00 @ 0.078h−$22.47-1.03%signal
24long2022-08-03 08:00 @ 0.072022-08-04 00:00 @ 0.0716h−$29.92-1.36%signal
23long2022-08-02 12:00 @ 0.072022-08-03 00:00 @ 0.0712h−$6.59-0.30%signal
22long2022-07-28 12:00 @ 0.072022-08-02 04:00 @ 0.074d 16h−$36.93-1.68%signal
21long2022-07-28 00:00 @ 0.072022-07-28 04:00 @ 0.074h−$20.72-0.94%signal
20long2022-07-23 16:00 @ 0.072022-07-25 04:00 @ 0.061d 12h−$99.69-4.46%signal
19long2022-07-18 04:00 @ 0.062022-07-23 12:00 @ 0.075d 8h$49.46+2.23%signal
18long2022-07-17 00:00 @ 0.062022-07-17 12:00 @ 0.0612h−$9.77-0.44%signal
17long2022-07-06 20:00 @ 0.072022-07-11 08:00 @ 0.074d 12h−$104.42-4.64%signal
16long2022-07-05 20:00 @ 0.072022-07-06 00:00 @ 0.074h−$36.62-1.62%signal
15long2022-07-05 00:00 @ 0.072022-07-05 12:00 @ 0.0712h−$103.40-4.53%signal
14long2022-06-28 12:00 @ 0.072022-06-28 16:00 @ 0.074h−$103.51-4.48%signal
13long2022-06-27 20:00 @ 0.072022-06-28 04:00 @ 0.078h−$59.81-2.57%signal
12long2022-06-26 12:00 @ 0.072022-06-27 16:00 @ 0.071d 4h−$51.28-2.19%signal
11long2022-04-27 08:00 @ 0.142022-04-27 12:00 @ 0.144h−$80.29-3.40%signal
10long2022-04-25 20:00 @ 0.162022-04-26 20:00 @ 0.141d−$327.50-13.42%signal
9long2022-04-18 20:00 @ 0.142022-04-21 20:00 @ 0.143d−$16.31-0.67%signal
8long2022-03-23 16:00 @ 0.132022-04-18 08:00 @ 0.1325d 16h$160.78+6.69%signal
7long2022-02-16 00:00 @ 0.152022-02-16 04:00 @ 0.154h−$29.20-1.21%signal
6long2022-02-13 16:00 @ 0.152022-02-14 00:00 @ 0.158h−$94.47-3.88%signal
5long2022-02-11 16:00 @ 0.152022-02-11 20:00 @ 0.154h−$91.21-3.71%signal
4long2022-02-11 08:00 @ 0.152022-02-11 12:00 @ 0.154h−$5.43-0.22%signal
3long2022-02-07 00:00 @ 0.152022-02-11 00:00 @ 0.154d−$46.84-1.90%signal
2long2022-01-14 00:00 @ 0.172022-01-17 04:00 @ 0.173d 4h−$33.64-1.36%signal
1long2022-01-13 12:00 @ 0.172022-01-13 16:00 @ 0.174h−$82.12-3.28%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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