[Famous-Q] Faber 200-bar SMA timing

public
@djgambhir

TRXUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,195 bars in 4.5ms

Underperformed the market. Holding TRXUSDT returned +337.59% over the same period, against this strategy’s +4.57%.

Net P&L
+4.57%
$457.24
Max drawdown
-29.37%
Max run-up
+69.85%
Trades
177
15.8% win rate
Profit factor
1.09
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -29.37%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19-3.26%-21.76%9920%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+4.49%-29.37%5110%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01+3.46%-3.42%2711%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.14
Sortino
0.23
Calmar
0.03
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.16
CAGR
+0.96%
Exposure
61.0%

Per trade

Expectancy
$2.58 · +0.14%
Average win / loss
$198.53 / −$34.24
Payoff ratio
5.80
Largest win / loss
$1,147.07 / −$267.96
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
29 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-29.37%
Longest time under water
1010 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered
Under water at the end
636 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$411.82
Funding
−$139.40
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
202
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+337.59%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 177 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-21.51%+3.21%+44.59%
Max drawdown-27.45%-15.04%-8.37%

44% of histories lost money, and 3% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -29.37%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

sma200 length
200
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

TRXUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

177 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
177long2026-08-08 12:00 @ 0.332026-08-31 16:00 @ 0.3323d 4h$23.17+0.89%signal
176long2026-08-07 12:00 @ 0.332026-08-07 16:00 @ 0.334h−$7.23-0.28%signal
175long2026-08-05 20:00 @ 0.332026-08-06 00:00 @ 0.334h−$7.64-0.29%signal
174long2026-08-05 12:00 @ 0.332026-08-05 16:00 @ 0.334h−$11.46-0.44%signal
173long2026-08-03 12:00 @ 0.332026-08-05 00:00 @ 0.331d 12h−$8.15-0.31%signal
172long2026-08-02 16:00 @ 0.332026-08-03 04:00 @ 0.3312h−$14.68-0.56%signal
171long2026-08-01 04:00 @ 0.332026-08-02 12:00 @ 0.331d 8h−$6.90-0.26%signal
170long2026-07-30 08:00 @ 0.332026-07-31 16:00 @ 0.331d 8h−$15.89-0.60%signal
169long2026-07-29 08:00 @ 0.332026-07-29 20:00 @ 0.3312h−$6.25-0.24%signal
168long2026-07-18 20:00 @ 0.332026-07-28 00:00 @ 0.329d 4h−$10.97-0.42%signal
167long2026-07-16 00:00 @ 0.322026-07-16 04:00 @ 0.324h−$11.10-0.42%signal
166long2026-07-04 08:00 @ 0.322026-07-15 20:00 @ 0.3211d 12h−$1.11-0.04%signal
165long2026-05-31 20:00 @ 0.352026-06-01 12:00 @ 0.3516h−$4.65-0.18%signal
164long2026-03-04 08:00 @ 0.282026-05-29 08:00 @ 0.3586d$557.79+22.35%signal
163long2026-03-03 00:00 @ 0.282026-03-03 08:00 @ 0.288h−$13.53-0.54%signal
162long2026-02-25 20:00 @ 0.292026-02-27 16:00 @ 0.281d 20h−$30.70-1.22%signal
161long2026-02-25 04:00 @ 0.292026-02-25 16:00 @ 0.2812h−$16.39-0.65%signal
160long2026-02-21 16:00 @ 0.292026-02-23 16:00 @ 0.282d−$36.92-1.46%signal
159long2026-01-26 20:00 @ 0.302026-01-27 08:00 @ 0.3012h−$15.12-0.60%signal
158long2026-01-26 00:00 @ 0.302026-01-26 12:00 @ 0.3012h−$6.43-0.25%signal
157long2025-12-27 16:00 @ 0.282026-01-25 20:00 @ 0.2929d 4h$121.81+4.88%signal
156long2025-12-27 04:00 @ 0.282025-12-27 08:00 @ 0.284h−$12.94-0.52%signal
155long2025-12-21 00:00 @ 0.282025-12-25 12:00 @ 0.284d 12h−$33.09-1.32%signal
154long2025-12-07 20:00 @ 0.292025-12-08 16:00 @ 0.2820h−$32.41-1.29%signal
153long2025-12-05 00:00 @ 0.292025-12-07 12:00 @ 0.282d 12h−$19.71-0.78%signal
152long2025-10-08 20:00 @ 0.342025-10-09 08:00 @ 0.3412h−$24.63-0.98%signal
151long2025-10-01 16:00 @ 0.342025-10-07 16:00 @ 0.346d−$5.27-0.21%signal
150long2025-09-20 04:00 @ 0.342025-09-21 12:00 @ 0.341d 8h−$9.32-0.37%signal
149long2025-09-18 12:00 @ 0.352025-09-19 20:00 @ 0.341d 8h−$22.21-0.88%signal
148long2025-09-16 12:00 @ 0.352025-09-16 16:00 @ 0.344h−$41.21-1.62%signal
147long2025-09-16 04:00 @ 0.352025-09-16 08:00 @ 0.354h−$5.04-0.20%signal
146long2025-09-11 20:00 @ 0.352025-09-15 12:00 @ 0.353d 16h−$6.05-0.24%signal
145long2025-09-11 08:00 @ 0.352025-09-11 16:00 @ 0.348h−$7.74-0.30%signal
144long2025-08-29 00:00 @ 0.342025-08-29 08:00 @ 0.348h−$33.53-1.31%signal
143long2025-06-29 00:00 @ 0.272025-08-28 20:00 @ 0.3460d 20h$558.39+23.09%signal
142long2025-06-28 12:00 @ 0.282025-06-28 20:00 @ 0.278h−$27.31-1.13%signal
141long2025-06-26 04:00 @ 0.272025-06-26 08:00 @ 0.274h−$32.82-1.35%signal
140long2025-06-21 12:00 @ 0.272025-06-21 16:00 @ 0.274h−$20.73-0.85%signal
139long2025-06-20 12:00 @ 0.272025-06-20 16:00 @ 0.274h−$13.72-0.56%signal
138long2025-06-19 20:00 @ 0.272025-06-20 08:00 @ 0.2712h−$21.72-0.89%signal
137long2025-06-19 04:00 @ 0.272025-06-19 16:00 @ 0.2712h−$7.78-0.32%signal
136long2025-06-16 16:00 @ 0.282025-06-18 00:00 @ 0.271d 8h−$97.31-3.93%signal
135long2025-06-12 16:00 @ 0.272025-06-12 20:00 @ 0.274h−$21.43-0.86%signal
134long2025-05-07 08:00 @ 0.242025-06-12 12:00 @ 0.2736d 4h$250.27+10.36%signal
133long2025-04-09 20:00 @ 0.242025-05-07 04:00 @ 0.2427d 8h$70.39+2.93%signal
132long2025-04-08 04:00 @ 0.232025-04-08 20:00 @ 0.2316h−$18.84-0.78%signal
131long2025-04-03 16:00 @ 0.232025-04-07 00:00 @ 0.233d 8h−$46.45-1.92%signal
130long2025-03-30 20:00 @ 0.232025-04-03 12:00 @ 0.233d 16h−$1.06-0.04%signal
129long2025-03-30 08:00 @ 0.232025-03-30 12:00 @ 0.234h−$16.80-0.69%signal
128long2025-03-28 20:00 @ 0.232025-03-30 04:00 @ 0.231d 8h−$42.48-1.75%signal
127long2025-03-27 04:00 @ 0.232025-03-28 08:00 @ 0.231d 4h−$33.42-1.37%signal
126long2025-03-22 04:00 @ 0.242025-03-23 16:00 @ 0.231d 12h−$40.82-1.67%signal
125long2025-03-21 12:00 @ 0.242025-03-22 00:00 @ 0.2312h−$24.63-1.00%signal
124long2025-03-20 20:00 @ 0.242025-03-21 00:00 @ 0.234h−$19.95-0.81%signal
123long2025-03-19 00:00 @ 0.242025-03-19 08:00 @ 0.238h−$36.07-1.46%signal
122long2025-03-10 12:00 @ 0.242025-03-10 16:00 @ 0.234h−$27.14-1.10%signal
121long2025-03-04 16:00 @ 0.242025-03-09 20:00 @ 0.245d 4h−$12.66-0.51%signal
120long2025-03-02 16:00 @ 0.242025-03-03 20:00 @ 0.231d 4h−$115.66-4.61%signal
119long2025-02-25 04:00 @ 0.242025-02-25 08:00 @ 0.234h−$120.91-4.76%signal
118long2025-02-23 04:00 @ 0.242025-02-25 00:00 @ 0.241d 20h−$18.75-0.74%signal
117long2025-02-20 16:00 @ 0.242025-02-21 20:00 @ 0.241d 4h−$57.78-2.26%signal
116long2025-02-19 04:00 @ 0.242025-02-20 08:00 @ 0.241d 4h−$60.63-2.36%signal
115long2025-02-18 04:00 @ 0.242025-02-18 08:00 @ 0.244h−$27.59-1.07%signal
114long2025-02-16 16:00 @ 0.242025-02-17 20:00 @ 0.241d 4h−$28.31-1.09%signal
113long2025-02-12 12:00 @ 0.242025-02-13 12:00 @ 0.241d−$72.86-2.80%signal
112long2025-02-10 20:00 @ 0.242025-02-12 04:00 @ 0.241d 8h−$49.20-1.88%signal
111long2025-01-30 12:00 @ 0.252025-02-02 00:00 @ 0.242d 12h−$52.92-2.01%signal
110long2025-01-24 00:00 @ 0.252025-01-27 00:00 @ 0.253d−$75.37-2.85%signal
109long2025-01-23 16:00 @ 0.252025-01-23 20:00 @ 0.254h−$34.20-1.29%signal
108long2025-01-22 04:00 @ 0.252025-01-23 08:00 @ 0.251d 4h−$33.84-1.27%signal
107long2024-12-27 12:00 @ 0.262024-12-27 16:00 @ 0.264h−$45.83-1.71%signal
106long2024-12-24 16:00 @ 0.262024-12-24 20:00 @ 0.264h−$30.71-1.14%signal
105long2024-12-21 08:00 @ 0.262024-12-21 12:00 @ 0.254h−$45.76-1.70%signal
104long2024-12-20 00:00 @ 0.252024-12-20 08:00 @ 0.258h−$19.13-0.71%signal
103long2024-11-10 08:00 @ 0.162024-12-19 20:00 @ 0.2539d 12h$1,147.07+47.50%signal
102long2024-11-10 00:00 @ 0.162024-11-10 04:00 @ 0.164h−$5.71-0.24%signal
101long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 0.162024-11-07 08:00 @ 0.161d 4h−$24.90-1.03%signal
100long2024-10-21 08:00 @ 0.162024-11-05 20:00 @ 0.1615d 12h$52.15+2.16%signal
99long2024-09-27 04:00 @ 0.152024-10-21 04:00 @ 0.1624d$21.12+0.88%signal
98long2024-08-16 12:00 @ 0.132024-09-13 20:00 @ 0.1528d 8h$305.72+13.13%signal
97long2024-08-15 08:00 @ 0.132024-08-15 16:00 @ 0.138h−$15.17-0.65%signal
96long2024-06-20 04:00 @ 0.122024-07-31 04:00 @ 0.1341d$303.06+13.43%signal
95long2024-06-19 04:00 @ 0.122024-06-20 00:00 @ 0.1220h−$9.62-0.43%signal
94long2024-06-17 00:00 @ 0.122024-06-18 04:00 @ 0.111d 4h−$60.85-2.68%signal
93long2024-04-25 16:00 @ 0.122024-05-22 20:00 @ 0.1227d 4h$58.56+2.59%signal
92long2024-04-10 08:00 @ 0.122024-04-10 12:00 @ 0.124h−$66.82-2.94%signal
91long2024-01-24 08:00 @ 0.112024-03-10 20:00 @ 0.1346d 12h$483.65+22.45%signal
90long2024-01-24 00:00 @ 0.112024-01-24 04:00 @ 0.114h−$6.30-0.29%signal
89long2024-01-11 00:00 @ 0.112024-01-23 20:00 @ 0.1112d 20h$19.75+0.92%signal
88long2023-12-27 12:00 @ 0.102024-01-05 12:00 @ 0.109d−$10.43-0.48%signal
87long2023-12-21 04:00 @ 0.102023-12-26 16:00 @ 0.105d 12h−$13.18-0.61%signal
86long2023-12-14 08:00 @ 0.102023-12-15 16:00 @ 0.101d 8h−$28.14-1.30%signal
85long2023-12-14 00:00 @ 0.102023-12-14 04:00 @ 0.104h−$9.64-0.44%signal
84long2023-12-12 04:00 @ 0.102023-12-12 16:00 @ 0.1012h−$32.24-1.48%signal
83long2023-11-22 12:00 @ 0.102023-12-11 20:00 @ 0.1019d 8h$43.05+1.99%signal
82long2023-10-15 16:00 @ 0.092023-11-21 20:00 @ 0.1037d 4h$274.85+13.12%signal
81long2023-10-14 16:00 @ 0.092023-10-15 00:00 @ 0.088h−$12.63-0.60%signal
80long2023-10-13 04:00 @ 0.092023-10-14 08:00 @ 0.091d 4h−$2.75-0.13%signal
79long2023-09-02 12:00 @ 0.082023-10-13 00:00 @ 0.0840d 12h$234.49+11.49%signal
78long2023-09-01 04:00 @ 0.082023-09-01 16:00 @ 0.0812h−$32.80-1.60%signal
77long2023-08-29 16:00 @ 0.082023-08-30 04:00 @ 0.0812h−$16.45-0.80%signal
76long2023-08-28 00:00 @ 0.082023-08-28 08:00 @ 0.088h−$8.91-0.43%signal
75long2023-06-29 20:00 @ 0.072023-07-31 08:00 @ 0.0831d 12h$110.07+5.43%signal
74long2023-06-29 08:00 @ 0.072023-06-29 16:00 @ 0.078h−$15.08-0.74%signal
73long2023-06-28 16:00 @ 0.072023-06-28 20:00 @ 0.074h−$34.64-1.70%signal
72long2023-06-27 08:00 @ 0.072023-06-28 08:00 @ 0.071d−$31.91-1.56%signal
71long2023-05-12 00:00 @ 0.072023-06-09 20:00 @ 0.0728d 20h$159.35+7.94%signal
70long2023-04-27 20:00 @ 0.072023-05-11 20:00 @ 0.0714d$40.67+2.04%signal
69long2023-04-26 00:00 @ 0.072023-04-26 20:00 @ 0.0620h−$42.20-2.10%signal
68long2023-04-22 12:00 @ 0.072023-04-25 16:00 @ 0.073d 4h−$19.39-0.96%signal
67long2023-04-21 12:00 @ 0.072023-04-21 20:00 @ 0.068h−$31.20-1.54%signal
66long2023-04-21 04:00 @ 0.072023-04-21 08:00 @ 0.074h−$6.84-0.34%signal
65long2023-04-14 04:00 @ 0.072023-04-20 16:00 @ 0.076d 12h−$48.05-2.36%signal
64long2023-04-13 12:00 @ 0.072023-04-13 16:00 @ 0.064h−$14.08-0.69%signal
63long2023-04-12 20:00 @ 0.062023-04-13 04:00 @ 0.068h−$2.93-0.14%signal
62long2023-04-03 08:00 @ 0.072023-04-12 04:00 @ 0.068d 20h−$60.66-2.95%signal
61long2023-03-31 12:00 @ 0.072023-04-02 20:00 @ 0.072d 8h−$19.22-0.93%signal
60long2023-03-22 08:00 @ 0.072023-03-22 16:00 @ 0.078h−$5.48-0.27%signal
59long2023-03-17 20:00 @ 0.072023-03-18 16:00 @ 0.0720h−$43.20-2.09%signal
58long2023-03-15 00:00 @ 0.072023-03-15 12:00 @ 0.0712h−$27.83-1.34%signal
57long2023-03-14 16:00 @ 0.072023-03-14 20:00 @ 0.074h−$62.68-2.99%signal
56long2023-03-13 16:00 @ 0.072023-03-14 08:00 @ 0.0716h−$49.62-2.36%signal
55long2023-03-06 16:00 @ 0.072023-03-07 04:00 @ 0.0712h−$11.99-0.57%signal
54long2023-03-05 04:00 @ 0.072023-03-06 08:00 @ 0.071d 4h−$13.72-0.65%signal
53long2023-01-10 16:00 @ 0.052023-03-04 20:00 @ 0.0753d 4h$428.12+21.35%signal
52long2023-01-09 00:00 @ 0.052023-01-10 08:00 @ 0.051d 8h−$17.74-0.88%signal
51long2022-12-30 16:00 @ 0.052023-01-05 16:00 @ 0.056d−$8.37-0.42%signal
50long2022-12-28 20:00 @ 0.052022-12-29 20:00 @ 0.051d−$36.56-1.81%signal
49long2022-12-27 20:00 @ 0.052022-12-28 08:00 @ 0.0512h−$13.48-0.67%signal
48long2022-12-17 08:00 @ 0.052022-12-27 16:00 @ 0.0510d 8h$37.14+1.84%signal
47long2022-12-13 12:00 @ 0.052022-12-17 04:00 @ 0.053d 16h−$46.28-2.28%signal
46long2022-12-12 20:00 @ 0.052022-12-13 08:00 @ 0.0512h−$9.66-0.48%signal
45long2022-12-08 20:00 @ 0.052022-12-12 08:00 @ 0.053d 12h−$80.18-3.91%signal
44long2022-11-09 08:00 @ 0.062022-11-09 12:00 @ 0.064h−$106.39-5.13%signal
43long2022-11-07 20:00 @ 0.062022-11-08 00:00 @ 0.064h−$17.51-0.84%signal
42long2022-11-04 08:00 @ 0.062022-11-07 08:00 @ 0.063d−$23.48-1.13%signal
41long2022-11-02 16:00 @ 0.062022-11-02 20:00 @ 0.064h−$24.89-1.19%signal
40long2022-10-25 16:00 @ 0.062022-11-02 08:00 @ 0.067d 16h$6.44+0.31%signal
39long2022-10-25 04:00 @ 0.062022-10-25 12:00 @ 0.068h−$9.87-0.47%signal
38long2022-10-24 12:00 @ 0.062022-10-25 00:00 @ 0.0612h−$16.17-0.77%signal
37long2022-10-23 16:00 @ 0.062022-10-24 04:00 @ 0.0612h−$4.85-0.23%signal
36long2022-10-22 12:00 @ 0.062022-10-23 12:00 @ 0.061d−$13.51-0.64%signal
35long2022-10-21 16:00 @ 0.062022-10-22 08:00 @ 0.0616h−$17.28-0.82%signal
34long2022-10-14 04:00 @ 0.062022-10-21 12:00 @ 0.067d 8h−$28.32-1.34%signal
33long2022-10-04 12:00 @ 0.062022-10-13 08:00 @ 0.068d 20h−$39.89-1.88%signal
32long2022-10-02 16:00 @ 0.062022-10-03 00:00 @ 0.068h−$25.94-1.22%signal
31long2022-09-30 16:00 @ 0.062022-09-30 20:00 @ 0.064h−$21.60-1.01%signal
30long2022-08-15 16:00 @ 0.072022-08-17 16:00 @ 0.072d−$2.43-0.11%signal
29long2022-07-27 20:00 @ 0.072022-08-15 12:00 @ 0.0718d 16h$18.47+0.87%signal
28long2022-07-24 00:00 @ 0.072022-07-25 04:00 @ 0.071d 4h−$49.09-2.29%signal
27long2022-07-14 00:00 @ 0.072022-07-23 16:00 @ 0.079d 16h$15.71+0.73%signal
26long2022-07-13 12:00 @ 0.072022-07-13 16:00 @ 0.064h−$36.36-1.69%signal
25long2022-07-07 16:00 @ 0.072022-07-11 04:00 @ 0.073d 12h−$50.70-2.35%signal
24long2022-06-12 16:00 @ 0.082022-06-12 20:00 @ 0.084h−$41.54-1.91%signal
23long2022-06-04 08:00 @ 0.082022-06-11 12:00 @ 0.087d 4h−$48.79-2.23%signal
22long2022-05-21 00:00 @ 0.072022-06-04 04:00 @ 0.0814d 4h$168.28+7.86%signal
21long2022-05-17 04:00 @ 0.072022-05-20 20:00 @ 0.073d 16h$3.18+0.15%signal
20long2022-05-15 20:00 @ 0.072022-05-16 08:00 @ 0.0712h−$50.26-2.33%signal
19long2022-05-13 04:00 @ 0.072022-05-15 16:00 @ 0.072d 12h−$142.20-6.50%signal
18long2022-05-11 16:00 @ 0.082022-05-13 00:00 @ 0.071d 8h−$248.97-11.06%signal
17long2022-05-01 08:00 @ 0.072022-05-11 12:00 @ 0.0610d 4h−$168.15-7.33%signal
16long2022-04-29 12:00 @ 0.072022-04-29 16:00 @ 0.064h−$92.96-4.01%signal
15long2022-04-26 00:00 @ 0.072022-04-26 04:00 @ 0.074h−$6.31-0.27%signal
14long2022-04-21 16:00 @ 0.072022-04-25 04:00 @ 0.063d 12h−$267.96-11.23%signal
13long2022-04-08 00:00 @ 0.062022-04-08 12:00 @ 0.0612h−$41.06-1.71%signal
12long2022-04-07 04:00 @ 0.062022-04-07 16:00 @ 0.0612h−$16.75-0.70%signal
11long2022-03-21 12:00 @ 0.062022-04-07 00:00 @ 0.0614d 12h$46.21+1.94%signal
10long2022-03-21 00:00 @ 0.062022-03-21 04:00 @ 0.064h−$19.91-0.83%signal
9long2022-03-19 12:00 @ 0.062022-03-20 12:00 @ 0.061d−$10.68-0.45%signal
8long2022-03-02 04:00 @ 0.062022-03-02 08:00 @ 0.064h−$35.18-1.46%signal
7long2022-02-22 20:00 @ 0.062022-02-24 00:00 @ 0.061d 4h−$63.69-2.63%signal
6long2022-02-21 16:00 @ 0.062022-02-21 20:00 @ 0.064h−$51.15-2.10%signal
5long2022-02-21 04:00 @ 0.062022-02-21 12:00 @ 0.068h−$51.17-2.09%signal
4long2022-02-18 20:00 @ 0.062022-02-20 04:00 @ 0.061d 8h−$27.14-1.11%signal
3long2022-02-18 08:00 @ 0.062022-02-18 16:00 @ 0.068h−$33.94-1.38%signal
2long2022-02-12 12:00 @ 0.062022-02-18 00:00 @ 0.065d 12h−$51.62-2.09%signal
1long2022-02-05 08:00 @ 0.072022-02-12 08:00 @ 0.067d−$103.61-4.14%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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