[Famous-Q] Faber 200-bar SMA timing

public
@djgambhir

ETHUSDT · 4h · 2022-01-012026-09-01 · 10,225 bars in 20.1ms

Net P&L
+34.12%
$3,412.43
Max drawdown
-14.22%
Max run-up
+49.23%
Trades
128
15.6% win rate
Profit factor
1.58
2022-01-01drawdown · worst -14.22%2026-09-01
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+5.25%-13.83%7613%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25+26.21%-8.63%2322%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-09-01+0.98%-11.40%2917%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.59
Sortino
0.85
Calmar
0.46
Return ÷ max drawdown
2.40
CAGR
+6.50%
Exposure
45.4%

Per trade

Expectancy
$26.66 · +1.04%
Average win / loss
$466.01 / −$54.70
Payoff ratio
8.52
Largest win / loss
$1,937.59 / −$257.29
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
18 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-14.22%
Longest time under water
564 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered
Under water at the end
374 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$355.99
Funding
−$675.25
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
202
Benchmark(buy and hold)
-33.60%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 128 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-11.56%+31.87%+112.94%
Max drawdown-24.58%-13.81%-7.98%

15% of histories lost money, and 47% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -14.22%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

sma200 length
200
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

ETHUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

128 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
128long2026-08-17 04:00 @ 1,900.582026-09-01 00:00 @ 2,470.9014d 20h$921.83+29.52%end of data
127long2026-08-13 20:00 @ 1,887.002026-08-14 04:00 @ 1,881.868h−$11.71-0.37%signal
126long2026-08-13 04:00 @ 1,887.082026-08-13 12:00 @ 1,879.118h−$16.60-0.53%signal
125long2026-08-11 20:00 @ 1,881.562026-08-12 20:00 @ 1,878.221d−$9.40-0.30%signal
124long2026-07-03 04:00 @ 1,705.952026-08-11 16:00 @ 1,861.6439d 12h$262.41+8.56%signal
123long2026-05-08 12:00 @ 2,294.312026-05-12 04:00 @ 2,307.803d 16h$13.14+0.43%signal
122long2026-04-07 20:00 @ 2,112.942026-05-08 04:00 @ 2,277.2530d 8h$235.80+7.85%signal
121long2026-04-06 00:00 @ 2,109.782026-04-07 12:00 @ 2,088.061d 12h−$34.13-1.13%signal
120long2026-03-31 20:00 @ 2,096.102026-04-02 04:00 @ 2,054.321d 8h−$63.38-2.09%signal
119long2026-03-30 16:00 @ 2,073.802026-03-30 20:00 @ 2,022.294h−$78.86-2.59%signal
118long2026-03-27 04:00 @ 2,060.852026-03-27 12:00 @ 1,989.848h−$108.84-3.54%signal
117long2026-03-10 04:00 @ 2,026.022026-03-26 20:00 @ 2,047.4416d 16h$28.63+0.93%signal
116long2026-03-09 16:00 @ 2,021.852026-03-10 00:00 @ 1,991.888h−$48.90-1.59%signal
115long2026-03-04 16:00 @ 2,149.722026-03-06 16:00 @ 1,976.022d−$257.29-8.18%signal
114long2026-01-02 12:00 @ 3,047.302026-01-20 16:00 @ 3,030.4518d 4h−$30.70-0.97%signal
113long2026-01-02 04:00 @ 3,021.642026-01-02 08:00 @ 3,016.404h−$8.63-0.27%signal
112long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 3,042.912025-12-29 08:00 @ 3,017.874h−$29.17-0.92%signal
111long2025-12-23 00:00 @ 3,009.102025-12-23 04:00 @ 2,989.884h−$23.51-0.74%signal
110long2025-12-22 04:00 @ 3,020.782025-12-22 20:00 @ 2,978.5616h−$47.60-1.50%signal
109long2025-12-15 04:00 @ 3,108.112025-12-15 16:00 @ 3,008.8812h−$105.63-3.29%signal
108long2025-12-13 08:00 @ 3,093.822025-12-15 00:00 @ 3,061.401d 16h−$37.65-1.17%signal
107long2025-12-08 20:00 @ 3,118.182025-12-12 16:00 @ 3,069.403d 20h−$55.38-1.71%signal
106long2025-12-08 08:00 @ 3,133.242025-12-08 16:00 @ 3,099.078h−$38.78-1.20%signal
105long2025-12-07 20:00 @ 3,137.402025-12-08 00:00 @ 3,057.534h−$86.23-2.64%signal
104long2025-12-05 08:00 @ 3,173.102025-12-05 12:00 @ 3,129.364h−$48.68-1.49%signal
103long2025-12-04 16:00 @ 3,207.202025-12-04 20:00 @ 3,117.044h−$96.25-2.92%signal
102long2025-12-04 04:00 @ 3,209.212025-12-04 08:00 @ 3,188.374h−$24.74-0.75%signal
101long2025-10-27 00:00 @ 4,157.192025-10-28 00:00 @ 4,117.641d−$35.74-1.08%signal
100long2025-10-02 00:00 @ 4,346.722025-10-09 16:00 @ 4,311.957d 16h−$34.37-1.04%signal
99long2025-09-20 00:00 @ 4,467.372025-09-22 00:00 @ 4,442.112d−$22.28-0.67%signal
98long2025-09-11 20:00 @ 4,423.242025-09-19 20:00 @ 4,438.018d$3.56+0.11%signal
97long2025-09-11 08:00 @ 4,439.892025-09-11 16:00 @ 4,409.528h−$26.44-0.79%signal
96long2025-09-05 20:00 @ 4,329.832025-09-06 00:00 @ 4,304.854h−$22.58-0.68%signal
95long2025-09-05 00:00 @ 4,296.542025-09-05 16:00 @ 4,279.5916h−$16.21-0.49%signal
94long2025-07-06 08:00 @ 2,517.412025-09-04 20:00 @ 4,272.9860d 12h$1,937.59+67.81%signal
93long2025-07-06 00:00 @ 2,515.752025-07-06 04:00 @ 2,513.274h−$5.79-0.20%signal
92long2025-07-05 04:00 @ 2,517.802025-07-05 16:00 @ 2,506.3812h−$15.96-0.56%signal
91long2025-07-02 20:00 @ 2,604.162025-07-04 16:00 @ 2,499.111d 20h−$120.45-4.16%signal
90long2025-06-17 04:00 @ 2,606.912025-06-17 12:00 @ 2,550.758h−$65.84-2.26%signal
89long2025-06-16 08:00 @ 2,628.252025-06-17 00:00 @ 2,542.6016h−$98.88-3.37%signal
88long2025-06-14 00:00 @ 2,578.622025-06-14 04:00 @ 2,547.224h−$38.90-1.32%signal
87long2025-06-09 12:00 @ 2,541.262025-06-13 04:00 @ 2,512.503d 16h−$39.19-1.33%signal
86long2025-06-06 04:00 @ 2,454.992025-06-09 04:00 @ 2,495.053d$43.47+1.48%signal
85long2025-04-23 00:00 @ 1,755.932025-06-06 00:00 @ 2,412.4244d$981.25+36.38%signal
84long2025-01-31 16:00 @ 3,426.902025-02-01 00:00 @ 3,298.848h−$104.71-3.84%signal
83long2025-01-24 08:00 @ 3,381.272025-01-24 20:00 @ 3,366.5912h−$15.11-0.55%signal
82long2025-01-19 20:00 @ 3,420.522025-01-20 00:00 @ 3,213.524h−$170.32-6.15%signal
81long2025-01-18 00:00 @ 3,473.072025-01-18 04:00 @ 3,382.114h−$76.07-2.73%signal
80long2025-01-05 20:00 @ 3,637.642025-01-07 16:00 @ 3,460.521d 20h−$141.70-5.02%signal
79long2025-01-05 00:00 @ 3,656.712025-01-05 08:00 @ 3,629.648h−$24.05-0.85%signal
78long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 2,579.562024-12-19 16:00 @ 3,611.7443d 12h$954.72+36.84%signal
77long2024-10-29 00:00 @ 2,566.992024-10-31 20:00 @ 2,513.802d 20h−$58.99-2.26%signal
76long2024-10-14 04:00 @ 2,520.542024-10-23 16:00 @ 2,539.029d 12h$8.87+0.34%signal
75long2024-10-13 00:00 @ 2,475.582024-10-13 04:00 @ 2,456.404h−$23.02-0.88%signal
74long2024-10-09 16:00 @ 2,460.842024-10-09 20:00 @ 2,416.564h−$50.05-1.91%signal
73long2024-10-07 04:00 @ 2,494.882024-10-07 20:00 @ 2,443.9316h−$56.76-2.15%signal
72long2024-10-02 04:00 @ 2,489.012024-10-02 12:00 @ 2,453.718h−$40.34-1.52%signal
71long2024-09-20 04:00 @ 2,520.402024-10-02 00:00 @ 2,446.3611d 20h−$87.78-3.29%signal
70long2024-07-31 04:00 @ 3,293.582024-07-31 20:00 @ 3,264.3616h−$26.94-1.01%signal
69long2024-07-29 04:00 @ 3,348.682024-07-30 20:00 @ 3,270.741d 16h−$66.66-2.48%signal
68long2024-07-15 08:00 @ 3,355.062024-07-25 04:00 @ 3,165.789d 20h−$162.57-5.95%signal
67long2024-06-16 16:00 @ 3,591.782024-06-17 04:00 @ 3,580.2812h−$12.03-0.44%signal
66long2024-06-12 08:00 @ 3,527.712024-06-13 04:00 @ 3,502.6520h−$23.02-0.84%signal
65long2024-05-20 00:00 @ 3,070.592024-06-11 16:00 @ 3,447.7822d 16h$298.25+11.18%signal
64long2024-05-17 16:00 @ 3,110.472024-05-19 20:00 @ 3,063.072d 4h−$44.62-1.67%signal
63long2024-04-28 16:00 @ 3,319.892024-04-29 00:00 @ 3,261.648h−$50.10-1.86%signal
62long2024-04-11 04:00 @ 3,579.272024-04-11 12:00 @ 3,524.158h−$44.70-1.65%signal
61long2024-04-08 12:00 @ 3,636.912024-04-09 16:00 @ 3,531.411d 4h−$83.51-3.07%signal
60long2024-03-31 08:00 @ 3,630.912024-04-01 08:00 @ 3,547.981d−$70.34-2.57%signal
59long2024-03-28 08:00 @ 3,578.042024-03-28 20:00 @ 3,565.4212h−$14.40-0.52%signal
58long2024-03-25 16:00 @ 3,585.202024-03-27 16:00 @ 3,516.602d−$59.76-2.17%signal
57long2024-03-22 00:00 @ 3,495.862024-03-22 12:00 @ 3,407.0612h−$74.56-2.68%signal
56long2024-03-21 00:00 @ 3,518.502024-03-21 20:00 @ 3,442.8920h−$64.21-2.30%signal
55long2024-02-07 20:00 @ 2,419.142024-03-19 08:00 @ 3,360.9340d 12h$871.56+33.84%signal
54long2024-02-06 20:00 @ 2,378.342024-02-07 04:00 @ 2,363.328h−$19.06-0.74%signal
53long2024-01-30 20:00 @ 2,374.222024-01-31 00:00 @ 2,341.494h−$38.28-1.48%signal
52long2024-01-10 00:00 @ 2,344.802024-01-22 20:00 @ 2,321.4312d 20h−$39.37-1.51%signal
51long2024-01-08 20:00 @ 2,355.712024-01-09 16:00 @ 2,256.4620h−$113.82-4.33%signal
50long2024-01-04 16:00 @ 2,278.322024-01-05 00:00 @ 2,267.408h−$15.50-0.59%signal
49long2023-10-21 12:00 @ 1,608.392024-01-03 16:00 @ 2,240.7874d 4h$833.78+34.40%signal
48long2023-10-20 12:00 @ 1,612.842023-10-20 16:00 @ 1,604.494h−$14.99-0.62%signal
47long2023-10-08 16:00 @ 1,630.972023-10-09 08:00 @ 1,619.6816h−$19.74-0.81%signal
46long2023-10-06 08:00 @ 1,630.672023-10-08 12:00 @ 1,616.932d 4h−$24.16-0.99%signal
45long2023-09-28 16:00 @ 1,652.342023-10-05 16:00 @ 1,617.087d−$56.09-2.29%signal
44long2023-09-27 12:00 @ 1,629.242023-09-27 16:00 @ 1,600.664h−$45.66-1.85%signal
43long2023-09-19 12:00 @ 1,647.392023-09-19 20:00 @ 1,643.058h−$8.99-0.36%signal
42long2023-09-18 12:00 @ 1,655.502023-09-18 20:00 @ 1,639.738h−$26.09-1.05%signal
41long2023-06-21 04:00 @ 1,811.232023-07-22 12:00 @ 1,886.6631d 8h$83.88+3.42%signal
40long2023-06-10 00:00 @ 1,839.982023-06-10 04:00 @ 1,826.144h−$21.07-0.86%signal
39long2023-06-09 12:00 @ 1,843.482023-06-09 20:00 @ 1,829.798h−$20.91-0.85%signal
38long2023-06-08 12:00 @ 1,843.132023-06-09 04:00 @ 1,836.7816h−$11.28-0.46%signal
37long2023-06-07 20:00 @ 1,850.022023-06-08 00:00 @ 1,830.954h−$27.93-1.13%signal
36long2023-06-06 20:00 @ 1,891.512023-06-07 16:00 @ 1,837.9120h−$73.51-2.95%signal
35long2023-05-28 20:00 @ 1,848.112023-06-05 16:00 @ 1,818.647d 20h−$46.32-1.85%signal
34long2023-05-28 04:00 @ 1,850.372023-05-28 12:00 @ 1,842.238h−$13.49-0.54%signal
33long2023-05-24 00:00 @ 1,853.742023-05-24 04:00 @ 1,820.484h−$47.89-1.90%signal
32long2023-05-23 04:00 @ 1,865.332023-05-23 20:00 @ 1,850.4516h−$23.08-0.91%signal
31long2023-05-05 16:00 @ 1,953.232023-05-06 16:00 @ 1,875.801d−$104.31-4.09%signal
30long2023-04-30 16:00 @ 1,919.302023-05-01 00:00 @ 1,868.048h−$71.31-2.78%signal
29long2023-04-30 08:00 @ 1,902.382023-04-30 12:00 @ 1,899.424h−$6.56-0.26%signal
28long2023-04-29 04:00 @ 1,895.602023-04-30 04:00 @ 1,894.761d−$4.18-0.16%signal
27long2023-04-27 16:00 @ 1,899.522023-04-28 16:00 @ 1,885.641d−$21.90-0.85%signal
26long2023-04-27 04:00 @ 1,898.012023-04-27 08:00 @ 1,883.624h−$22.13-0.86%signal
25long2023-04-26 12:00 @ 1,914.062023-04-26 20:00 @ 1,827.028h−$121.50-4.65%signal
24long2023-03-13 16:00 @ 1,666.642023-04-21 20:00 @ 1,841.4939d 4h$242.90+9.52%signal
23long2023-03-13 08:00 @ 1,606.462023-03-13 12:00 @ 1,580.304h−$44.50-1.74%signal
22long2023-03-01 04:00 @ 1,638.022023-03-03 04:00 @ 1,564.222d−$120.63-4.65%signal
21long2023-02-28 12:00 @ 1,629.202023-03-01 00:00 @ 1,604.4112h−$42.39-1.63%signal
20long2023-02-26 20:00 @ 1,633.022023-02-28 08:00 @ 1,618.181d 12h−$27.04-1.04%signal
19long2023-02-23 00:00 @ 1,642.342023-02-24 16:00 @ 1,601.861d 16h−$68.14-2.60%signal
18long2023-02-15 20:00 @ 1,628.622023-02-22 16:00 @ 1,612.376d 20h−$34.47-1.31%signal
17long2023-01-04 04:00 @ 1,250.582023-02-10 00:00 @ 1,544.3636d 20h$547.58+21.92%signal
16long2022-12-08 20:00 @ 1,283.942022-12-16 12:00 @ 1,211.867d 16h−$148.37-5.85%signal
15long2022-12-05 08:00 @ 1,296.882022-12-05 16:00 @ 1,265.408h−$64.38-2.52%signal
14long2022-10-23 20:00 @ 1,330.442022-11-08 20:00 @ 1,312.5016d−$42.48-1.66%signal
13long2022-09-09 08:00 @ 1,704.602022-09-13 16:00 @ 1,592.034d 8h−$166.60-6.40%signal
12long2022-08-25 08:00 @ 1,708.212022-08-25 16:00 @ 1,700.108h−$14.93-0.57%signal
11long2022-07-14 20:00 @ 1,193.902022-08-20 00:00 @ 1,607.9736d 4h$812.16+33.79%signal
10long2022-04-13 16:00 @ 3,092.842022-04-14 12:00 @ 3,071.3720h−$19.28-0.80%signal
9long2022-03-16 20:00 @ 2,753.552022-04-11 12:00 @ 3,048.6425d 16h$233.15+9.92%signal
8long2022-02-28 16:00 @ 2,814.782022-03-03 16:00 @ 2,827.003d$5.75+0.24%signal
7long2022-02-27 12:00 @ 2,820.892022-02-27 20:00 @ 2,605.338h−$185.56-7.75%signal
6long2022-02-26 20:00 @ 2,809.162022-02-27 00:00 @ 2,777.594h−$29.39-1.22%signal
5long2022-02-26 04:00 @ 2,793.312022-02-26 12:00 @ 2,750.108h−$39.95-1.66%signal
4long2022-02-15 00:00 @ 2,929.462022-02-18 16:00 @ 2,798.073d 16h−$112.91-4.63%signal
3long2022-02-14 16:00 @ 2,936.232022-02-14 20:00 @ 2,877.294h−$51.92-2.12%signal
2long2022-02-12 20:00 @ 2,952.092022-02-13 20:00 @ 2,854.791d−$84.13-3.40%signal
1long2022-02-05 00:00 @ 2,994.242022-02-12 16:00 @ 2,879.847d 16h−$100.66-4.03%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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