[Mine-Q] ADX-gated EMA 20/100 trend
public
@djgambhirBTCUSDT · 1d · 2021-12-29 → 2026-08-31 · 1,707 bars in 4.9ms
Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +69.15% over the same period, against this strategy’s -6.33%.
Net P&L
-6.33%
−$632.86
Max drawdown
-22.42%
Max run-up
+16.56%
Trades
32
37.5% win rate
Profit factor
0.85
2021-12-29drawdown · worst -22.42%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
| Segment | Period | Return | Max drawdown | Trades | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training | 2022-01-01 → 2024-10-18 | -10.93% | -19.09% | 20 | 30% |
| Validation | 2024-10-18 → 2025-09-24 | -1.88% | -11.15% | 6 | 33% |
| Out-of-sample | 2025-09-24 → 2026-08-31 | +7.92% | -3.91% | 5 | 60% |
Risk-adjusted
- Sharpe
- -0.08
- Sortino
- -0.12
- Calmar
- -0.06
- Return ÷ max drawdown
- -0.28
- CAGR
- -1.39%
- Exposure
- 71.0%
Per trade
- Expectancy
- −$19.78 · -0.60%
- Average win / loss
- $308.93 / −$217.00
- Payoff ratio
- 1.42
- Largest win / loss
- $906.59 / −$537.12
- Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
- 5 trades
Drawdown over time
- Max drawdown
- -22.42%
- Longest time under water(still going at the end)
- 1535 days
- Worst drawdown recovered in
- not recovered
Costs and mechanics
- Fees paid
- −$75.68
- Funding
- −$338.70
- Liquidations
- 0
- Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
- 99
- Benchmark(buy and hold)
- +69.15%
Monte Carlo
1,000 alternative histories, each 32 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.
this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
| Unlucky (5%) | Typical | Lucky (95%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return | -29.31% | -7.65% | +24.43% |
| Max drawdown | -33.39% | -18.76% | -9.41% |
67% of histories lost money, and 36% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -22.42%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.
Settings
- ema20 length
- 20
- ema100 length
- 100
- adx length
- 14
- atr14 length
- 14
- Long entry: adx > ▢
- 25
- Short entry: adx > ▢
- 25
- Stop loss (× atr14)
- 3
- Trailing stop (× atr14)
- 4
- Leverage (×)
- 1
- Position size (% of equity)
- 25
BTCUSDT with every trade
Loading prices…
▲ long opened▼ short opened● closed at a profit● closed at a loss
Trades
32 trades
| # | Side | Entry | Exit | Held | P&L | Return | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | short | 2021-12-30 00:00 @ 46,427.24 | 2022-02-07 00:00 @ 42,802.89 | 39d | $206.62 | +8.26% | trailing stop |
| 2 | short | 2022-02-28 00:00 @ 37,664.57 | 2022-03-27 00:00 @ 45,702.45 | 27d | −$537.12 | -21.05% | trailing stop |
| 3 | short | 2022-04-27 00:00 @ 38,086.08 | 2022-07-20 00:00 @ 24,071.00 | 84d | $906.59 | +37.50% | trailing stop |
| 4 | short | 2022-09-08 00:00 @ 19,283.14 | 2022-09-10 00:00 @ 21,824.54 | 2d | −$349.52 | -13.22% | trailing stop |
| 5 | short | 2022-09-25 00:00 @ 18,907.12 | 2022-10-29 00:00 @ 21,072.61 | 34d | −$279.43 | -10.93% | trailing stop |
| 6 | short | 2022-11-12 00:00 @ 17,054.99 | 2023-01-11 00:00 @ 17,874.45 | 60d | −$106.97 | -4.30% | trailing stop |
| 7 | long | 2023-01-17 00:00 @ 21,192.44 | 2023-03-08 00:00 @ 21,695.01 | 50d | $22.39 | +0.91% | trailing stop |
| 8 | long | 2023-03-17 00:00 @ 24,995.50 | 2023-04-24 00:00 @ 26,932.22 | 38d | $172.10 | +6.98% | trailing stop |
| 9 | long | 2023-04-28 00:00 @ 29,464.89 | 2023-05-12 00:00 @ 26,001.53 | 14d | −$302.62 | -12.06% | trailing stop |
| 10 | short | 2023-06-15 00:00 @ 25,110.88 | 2023-06-20 00:00 @ 27,849.02 | 5d | −$265.84 | -10.93% | trailing stop |
| 11 | long | 2023-06-22 00:00 @ 29,994.50 | 2023-08-17 00:00 @ 28,133.78 | 56d | −$179.54 | -7.59% | trailing stop |
| 12 | short | 2023-08-22 00:00 @ 26,110.18 | 2023-10-01 00:00 @ 27,769.95 | 40d | −$146.24 | -6.30% | trailing stop |
| 13 | short | 2023-10-12 00:00 @ 26,859.13 | 2023-10-16 00:00 @ 28,895.27 | 4d | −$174.52 | -7.64% | trailing stop |
| 14 | long | 2023-10-19 00:00 @ 28,312.86 | 2023-10-23 00:00 @ 30,962.42 | 4d | $206.93 | +9.23% | trailing stop |
| 15 | long | 2023-10-24 00:00 @ 33,080.61 | 2024-01-22 00:00 @ 40,170.82 | 90d | $381.04 | +16.62% | trailing stop |
| 16 | long | 2024-02-15 00:00 @ 51,833.46 | 2024-03-20 00:00 @ 60,999.93 | 34d | $321.94 | +13.48% | trailing stop |
| 17 | long | 2024-03-21 00:00 @ 67,889.98 | 2024-04-13 00:00 @ 59,794.42 | 23d | −$330.77 | -13.40% | trailing stop |
| 18 | long | 2024-05-05 00:00 @ 63,877.07 | 2024-06-24 00:00 @ 62,800.60 | 50d | −$74.01 | -3.10% | trailing stop |
| 19 | short | 2024-06-30 00:00 @ 60,970.30 | 2024-07-15 00:00 @ 62,453.18 | 15d | −$51.15 | -2.16% | trailing stop |
| 20 | long | 2024-07-23 00:00 @ 67,512.70 | 2024-08-03 00:00 @ 60,109.30 | 11d | −$266.76 | -11.33% | trailing stop |
| 21 | short | 2024-08-07 00:00 @ 55,980.10 | 2024-09-19 00:00 @ 63,429.67 | 43d | −$307.20 | -13.42% | trailing stop |
| 22 | long | 2024-11-10 00:00 @ 76,690.44 | 2024-12-20 00:00 @ 92,320.07 | 40d | $394.86 | +17.86% | trailing stop |
| 23 | long | 2024-12-25 00:00 @ 98,646.63 | 2025-02-03 00:00 @ 92,047.50 | 40d | −$179.16 | -7.76% | trailing stop |
| 24 | long | 2025-02-21 00:00 @ 98,272.45 | 2025-02-25 00:00 @ 88,269.71 | 4d | −$233.86 | -10.32% | trailing stop |
| 25 | short | 2025-03-01 00:00 @ 84,282.74 | 2025-04-22 00:00 @ 89,575.70 | 52d | −$131.74 | -5.97% | trailing stop |
| 26 | long | 2025-04-28 00:00 @ 93,715.74 | 2025-06-22 00:00 @ 99,743.84 | 55d | $122.63 | +5.64% | trailing stop |
| 27 | long | 2025-07-17 00:00 @ 118,614.42 | 2025-08-21 00:00 @ 112,233.71 | 35d | −$139.08 | -6.31% | trailing stop |
| 28 | long | 2025-10-06 00:00 @ 123,451.39 | 2025-10-10 00:00 @ 115,192.18 | 4d | −$148.98 | -6.87% | trailing stop |
| 29 | short | 2025-10-21 00:00 @ 110,447.81 | 2026-03-17 00:00 @ 74,931.99 | 147d | $708.70 | +33.23% | trailing stop |
| 30 | long | 2026-05-04 00:00 @ 78,544.71 | 2026-05-28 00:00 @ 74,160.36 | 24d | −$135.54 | -5.87% | trailing stop |
| 31 | short | 2026-05-31 00:00 @ 73,842.13 | 2026-08-19 00:00 @ 67,075.16 | 80d | $227.88 | +10.01% | trailing stop |
| 32 | long | 2026-08-23 00:00 @ 77,099.92 | 2026-08-31 00:00 @ 78,533.89 | 8d | $35.51 | +1.52% | end of data |
How this was run
Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.
Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.