[Mine-Q] Trend + momentum ensemble

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 4h · 2021-12-312026-08-31 · 10,227 bars in 7.7ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +63.63% over the same period, against this strategy’s +17.75%.

Net P&L
+17.75%
$1,774.88
Max drawdown
-18.35%
Max run-up
+41.69%
Trades
352
29.3% win rate
Profit factor
1.14
2021-12-31drawdown · worst -18.35%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+24.14%-10.71%21128%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-10.21%-16.53%7628%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-08-31+5.64%-9.26%6534%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.39
Sortino
0.56
Calmar
0.19
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.97
CAGR
+3.56%
Exposure
73.3%

Per trade

Expectancy
$5.04 · +0.22%
Average win / loss
$142.49 / −$51.82
Payoff ratio
2.75
Largest win / loss
$931.07 / −$305.14
Longest losing streak(winning: 4)
15 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-18.35%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
910 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$1,019.89
Funding
−$319.59
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
199
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+63.63%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 352 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-19.91%+17.34%+73.68%
Max drawdown-29.27%-16.48%-9.68%

23% of histories lost money, and 40% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -18.35%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

ema200 length
200
ema50 length
50
roc20 length
20
macd fast length
12
macd slow length
26
macd signal length
9
atr14 length
14
Long entry: roc20 > ▢
0
Long entry: macd.hist > ▢
0
Short entry: roc20 < ▢
0
Short entry: macd.hist < ▢
0
Stop loss (× atr14)
3
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

352 trades · 201–352 shown

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
152long2024-02-06 16:00 @ 43,240.652024-02-21 12:00 @ 50,978.0014d 20h$524.78+17.22%signal
151short2024-02-01 12:00 @ 42,067.382024-02-01 16:00 @ 42,508.504h−$35.12-1.15%signal
150long2024-01-28 04:00 @ 42,218.542024-02-01 04:00 @ 41,989.604d−$22.78-0.74%signal
149short2024-01-18 20:00 @ 41,006.002024-01-26 12:00 @ 41,280.157d 16h−$16.58-0.54%signal
148short2024-01-13 00:00 @ 42,780.442024-01-16 16:00 @ 43,259.653d 16h−$34.15-1.11%reverse
147long2024-01-08 12:00 @ 44,646.132024-01-12 16:00 @ 44,486.204d 4h−$17.95-0.58%signal
146long2024-01-07 00:00 @ 43,965.392024-01-08 04:00 @ 43,493.301d 4h−$37.47-1.21%signal
145long2024-01-01 16:00 @ 42,826.562024-01-03 12:00 @ 41,296.081d 20h−$121.94-3.91%stop loss
144long2023-12-28 08:00 @ 43,095.922023-12-28 16:00 @ 42,477.408h−$49.23-1.57%signal
143long2023-12-19 00:00 @ 42,680.332023-12-25 00:00 @ 42,999.806d$9.74+0.31%signal
142long2023-12-14 12:00 @ 43,278.552023-12-15 16:00 @ 41,922.011d 4h−$102.92-3.26%signal
141long2023-11-28 20:00 @ 38,112.322023-12-11 04:00 @ 42,304.2412d 8h$319.49+10.39%signal
140long2023-11-23 00:00 @ 37,420.982023-11-27 12:00 @ 37,015.904d 12h−$40.79-1.32%signal
139long2023-11-18 16:00 @ 36,679.332023-11-22 00:00 @ 35,729.853d 8h−$86.62-2.79%signal
138long2023-11-15 20:00 @ 37,534.912023-11-16 16:00 @ 36,416.0220h−$97.20-3.10%signal
137long2023-10-16 04:00 @ 27,226.842023-11-14 12:00 @ 36,281.6429d 8h$931.07+32.13%signal
136short2023-10-11 04:00 @ 26,995.302023-10-16 00:00 @ 27,145.234d 20h−$17.56-0.60%signal
135long2023-09-28 16:00 @ 27,017.702023-10-09 12:00 @ 27,450.5110d 20h$42.77+1.48%signal
134short2023-09-21 16:00 @ 26,562.292023-09-27 12:00 @ 26,761.055d 20h−$23.12-0.80%signal
133long2023-09-18 12:00 @ 27,190.042023-09-21 12:00 @ 26,455.743d−$81.35-2.79%stop loss
132long2023-09-14 16:00 @ 26,685.342023-09-18 00:00 @ 26,508.903d 8h−$22.04-0.75%reverse
131short2023-09-10 12:00 @ 25,777.842023-09-12 08:00 @ 25,815.361d 20h−$6.93-0.24%signal
130short2023-09-01 00:00 @ 25,922.812023-09-08 00:00 @ 26,245.957d−$38.01-1.30%signal
129long2023-08-29 20:00 @ 27,825.562023-08-31 12:00 @ 26,846.901d 16h−$107.78-3.64%stop loss
128short2023-08-15 08:00 @ 29,391.022023-08-29 16:00 @ 27,416.8814d 8h$196.22+6.74%signal
127long2023-08-14 16:00 @ 29,598.722023-08-14 20:00 @ 29,347.834h−$27.94-0.96%signal
126short2023-08-14 08:00 @ 29,404.522023-08-14 12:00 @ 29,405.684h−$2.74-0.09%signal
125short2023-08-14 00:00 @ 29,287.442023-08-14 04:00 @ 29,395.884h−$13.46-0.46%signal
124short2023-08-13 08:00 @ 29,379.722023-08-13 20:00 @ 29,431.8912h−$7.69-0.26%signal
123short2023-08-13 00:00 @ 29,414.922023-08-13 04:00 @ 29,407.684h−$1.91-0.07%signal
122short2023-08-12 16:00 @ 29,420.112023-08-12 20:00 @ 29,413.484h−$1.99-0.07%signal
121short2023-08-12 08:00 @ 29,404.322023-08-12 12:00 @ 29,422.584h−$4.45-0.15%signal
120short2023-08-12 00:00 @ 29,409.622023-08-12 04:00 @ 29,393.884h−$1.07-0.04%signal
119long2023-08-08 12:00 @ 29,433.992023-08-11 20:00 @ 29,381.923d 8h−$10.70-0.36%reverse
118short2023-08-03 04:00 @ 29,164.272023-08-08 00:00 @ 29,208.544d 20h−$3.58-0.12%signal
117long2023-08-02 04:00 @ 29,628.422023-08-02 16:00 @ 29,306.6412h−$35.15-1.20%signal
116short2023-07-24 12:00 @ 29,253.852023-08-02 00:00 @ 29,707.148d 12h−$43.65-1.48%signal
115long2023-07-24 08:00 @ 29,822.362023-07-24 08:00 @ 28,980.300m−$87.00-2.93%stop loss
114long2023-07-24 00:00 @ 30,076.912023-07-24 04:00 @ 29,699.764h−$40.66-1.36%signal
113long2023-07-23 08:00 @ 29,906.882023-07-23 12:00 @ 29,875.524h−$6.41-0.21%signal
112long2023-07-22 04:00 @ 29,892.682023-07-22 08:00 @ 29,926.914h$0.43+0.01%signal
111long2023-07-21 04:00 @ 29,890.282023-07-21 08:00 @ 29,751.854h−$16.82-0.56%signal
110long2023-07-13 16:00 @ 30,921.682023-07-14 20:00 @ 30,093.881d 4h−$84.46-2.81%signal
109long2023-07-10 16:00 @ 30,303.562023-07-12 20:00 @ 30,262.052d 4h−$8.39-0.28%signal
108long2023-07-10 08:00 @ 30,106.022023-07-10 12:00 @ 30,215.564h$7.79+0.26%signal
107long2023-06-18 20:00 @ 26,646.932023-07-05 12:00 @ 30,388.9216d 16h$391.38+13.44%signal
106short2023-06-10 08:00 @ 25,632.172023-06-16 20:00 @ 26,376.376d 12h−$85.75-2.92%signal
105short2023-06-05 04:00 @ 26,830.432023-06-06 20:00 @ 27,078.711d 16h−$29.83-1.01%signal
104short2023-05-31 12:00 @ 27,082.482023-06-02 20:00 @ 27,236.952d 8h−$18.12-0.62%signal
103long2023-05-28 20:00 @ 27,524.002023-05-31 08:00 @ 27,144.972d 12h−$45.19-1.53%signal
102short2023-05-24 08:00 @ 26,658.872023-05-28 00:00 @ 26,846.973d 16h−$21.52-0.73%signal
101short2023-05-22 00:00 @ 26,727.452023-05-23 04:00 @ 27,360.171d 4h−$73.03-2.45%signal
100short2023-05-18 20:00 @ 26,713.962023-05-21 04:00 @ 27,171.832d 8h−$53.65-1.79%signal
99short2023-05-17 12:00 @ 26,621.072023-05-17 20:00 @ 27,382.488h−$89.19-2.96%signal
98short2023-05-08 00:00 @ 28,413.822023-05-15 08:00 @ 27,404.087d 8h$105.49+3.53%signal
97long2023-05-04 12:00 @ 29,150.832023-05-06 16:00 @ 28,552.192d 4h−$66.12-2.20%signal
96short2023-05-01 16:00 @ 28,152.872023-05-02 20:00 @ 28,682.241d 4h−$59.59-1.97%signal
95long2023-04-27 00:00 @ 28,401.682023-05-01 04:00 @ 28,539.894d 4h$9.62+0.32%signal
94long2023-04-26 04:00 @ 28,301.762023-04-26 20:00 @ 27,866.3316h−$50.00-1.65%signal
93short2023-04-20 20:00 @ 28,085.582023-04-26 00:00 @ 28,292.365d 4h−$22.90-0.75%signal
92long2023-04-19 00:00 @ 30,371.872023-04-19 08:00 @ 29,350.388h−$106.54-3.48%stop loss
91long2023-04-09 20:00 @ 28,138.032023-04-17 12:00 @ 29,552.197d 16h$143.66+4.74%signal
90long2023-04-06 00:00 @ 28,159.632023-04-06 08:00 @ 27,891.128h−$32.01-1.05%signal
89long2023-04-05 04:00 @ 28,541.812023-04-05 16:00 @ 28,009.4012h−$60.19-1.97%signal
88long2023-03-29 08:00 @ 28,083.422023-04-02 20:00 @ 27,928.114d 12h−$22.71-0.74%signal
87long2023-03-13 08:00 @ 22,455.992023-03-27 16:00 @ 26,881.9214d 8h$560.40+19.22%signal
86short2023-03-03 04:00 @ 22,301.942023-03-13 00:00 @ 21,990.609d 20h$39.74+1.37%signal
85long2023-03-02 20:00 @ 23,461.392023-03-03 00:00 @ 23,452.414h−$4.02-0.14%signal
84long2023-03-02 00:00 @ 23,624.522023-03-02 04:00 @ 23,482.404h−$20.68-0.71%signal
83long2023-03-01 08:00 @ 23,714.342023-03-01 20:00 @ 23,338.1312h−$49.89-1.71%signal
82long2023-03-01 00:00 @ 23,134.332023-03-01 04:00 @ 23,426.914h$33.95+1.16%signal
81long2023-02-28 16:00 @ 23,515.802023-02-28 20:00 @ 23,246.454h−$36.59-1.25%signal
80long2023-02-28 08:00 @ 23,228.042023-02-28 12:00 @ 23,376.824h$15.73+0.54%signal
79long2023-02-28 00:00 @ 23,484.702023-02-28 04:00 @ 23,449.614h−$7.39-0.25%signal
78long2023-02-15 08:00 @ 22,101.822023-02-22 08:00 @ 24,054.697d$243.15+8.49%signal
77long2023-02-14 16:00 @ 22,037.812023-02-15 04:00 @ 22,084.4812h$2.87+0.10%signal
76long2023-02-14 08:00 @ 21,764.352023-02-14 12:00 @ 21,794.544h$0.82+0.03%signal
75long2023-02-14 00:00 @ 21,770.452023-02-14 04:00 @ 21,687.464h−$14.07-0.49%signal
74short2023-02-10 16:00 @ 21,644.572023-02-13 08:00 @ 21,861.472d 16h−$30.29-1.05%reverse
73long2023-02-02 00:00 @ 23,734.852023-02-05 16:00 @ 23,089.583d 16h−$84.69-2.93%signal
72long2023-01-07 00:00 @ 16,947.292023-01-30 20:00 @ 22,779.0423d 20h$893.20+33.44%signal
71short2022-12-27 16:00 @ 16,787.342023-01-02 04:00 @ 16,658.035d 12h$21.11+0.79%signal
70short2022-12-16 12:00 @ 17,015.302022-12-26 04:00 @ 16,890.589d 16h$20.77+0.78%signal
69long2022-12-13 12:00 @ 17,440.392022-12-16 08:00 @ 16,920.972d 20h−$84.56-3.15%stop loss
68short2022-12-12 04:00 @ 16,905.622022-12-12 20:00 @ 17,039.0116h−$23.88-0.89%signal
67short2022-12-07 08:00 @ 16,752.052022-12-08 16:00 @ 16,911.081d 8h−$28.22-1.05%signal
66short2022-12-06 08:00 @ 16,990.302022-12-06 12:00 @ 16,977.994h−$0.63-0.02%signal
65short2022-12-05 20:00 @ 16,916.122022-12-06 00:00 @ 16,961.594h−$9.95-0.37%signal
64short2022-12-04 20:00 @ 17,074.182022-12-05 00:00 @ 17,102.924h−$7.24-0.27%signal
63short2022-12-04 12:00 @ 16,935.012022-12-04 16:00 @ 17,025.604h−$17.17-0.64%signal
62short2022-12-04 04:00 @ 16,948.512022-12-04 08:00 @ 16,991.304h−$9.54-0.35%signal
61short2022-11-27 20:00 @ 16,543.592022-11-29 08:00 @ 16,459.291d 12h$11.28+0.42%signal
60short2022-11-27 12:00 @ 16,540.992022-11-27 16:00 @ 16,569.614h−$7.39-0.27%signal
59short2022-11-26 16:00 @ 16,503.102022-11-27 08:00 @ 16,557.2116h−$11.47-0.42%signal
58short2022-11-08 04:00 @ 20,136.572022-11-23 04:00 @ 16,581.2215d$448.46+17.28%signal
57long2022-11-04 08:00 @ 20,607.422022-11-07 08:00 @ 20,623.973d−$2.06-0.08%signal
56long2022-10-24 00:00 @ 19,564.512022-11-02 20:00 @ 20,237.159d 20h$83.71+3.25%signal
55short2022-10-20 00:00 @ 19,112.782022-10-22 16:00 @ 19,227.642d 16h−$17.10-0.66%signal
54long2022-10-18 08:00 @ 19,659.732022-10-18 20:00 @ 19,205.7612h−$63.00-2.43%signal
53short2022-10-15 20:00 @ 19,088.082022-10-16 20:00 @ 19,373.671d−$41.43-1.59%signal
52long2022-10-14 04:00 @ 19,810.162022-10-14 16:00 @ 19,349.0312h−$63.87-2.44%signal
51short2022-10-07 20:00 @ 19,449.212022-10-13 20:00 @ 19,364.776d$12.01+0.46%signal
50long2022-10-04 08:00 @ 19,960.992022-10-07 16:00 @ 19,570.193d 8h−$56.80-2.16%signal
49short2022-10-02 00:00 @ 19,300.142022-10-03 16:00 @ 19,333.871d 16h−$6.51-0.25%signal
48short2022-09-28 04:00 @ 18,732.252022-09-28 16:00 @ 19,481.8012h−$109.24-4.10%signal
47long2022-09-27 08:00 @ 20,178.232022-09-27 16:00 @ 19,031.668h−$156.58-5.80%stop loss
46short2022-09-13 20:00 @ 20,267.952022-09-27 00:00 @ 19,220.1413d 4h$137.56+5.16%signal
45long2022-09-09 16:00 @ 21,262.752022-09-13 16:00 @ 20,819.744d−$61.60-2.30%signal
44short2022-08-19 00:00 @ 23,180.362022-09-09 04:00 @ 19,939.9921d 4h$359.55+13.87%signal
43long2022-08-10 20:00 @ 23,631.032022-08-15 20:00 @ 23,967.415d$33.23+1.29%signal
42long2022-08-07 20:00 @ 23,159.632022-08-09 12:00 @ 23,253.051d 16h$6.75+0.26%signal
41long2022-08-05 20:00 @ 22,927.182022-08-07 00:00 @ 22,938.611d 4h−$1.96-0.08%signal
40long2022-08-05 12:00 @ 23,397.782022-08-05 16:00 @ 22,974.504h−$49.51-1.91%signal
39short2022-08-04 20:00 @ 22,434.612022-08-05 04:00 @ 23,163.138h−$87.58-3.35%signal
38long2022-07-28 00:00 @ 22,945.692022-08-01 20:00 @ 22,940.414d 20h−$7.05-0.27%signal
37short2022-07-25 04:00 @ 21,853.732022-07-27 20:00 @ 22,768.352d 16h−$112.47-4.25%signal
36long2022-07-18 08:00 @ 22,247.752022-07-23 12:00 @ 22,222.355d 4h−$9.56-0.36%signal
35short2022-07-11 00:00 @ 20,849.632022-07-14 16:00 @ 20,383.483d 16h$57.46+2.18%signal
34short2022-06-27 16:00 @ 20,739.852022-07-04 20:00 @ 19,827.967d 4h$112.52+4.32%signal
33short2022-06-09 12:00 @ 30,280.642022-06-24 12:00 @ 21,169.2315d$728.95+30.07%signal
32short2022-06-07 08:00 @ 29,563.192022-06-07 16:00 @ 31,213.488h−$140.15-5.70%stop loss
31short2022-06-03 08:00 @ 30,418.122022-06-05 20:00 @ 30,042.312d 12h$28.53+1.16%signal
30short2022-06-03 00:00 @ 30,431.012022-06-03 04:00 @ 30,516.504h−$9.44-0.38%signal
29short2022-06-02 12:00 @ 30,151.772022-06-02 20:00 @ 30,278.258h−$12.72-0.52%signal
28short2022-05-26 12:00 @ 28,987.102022-05-30 00:00 @ 29,458.493d 12h−$40.41-1.64%signal
27short2022-05-26 00:00 @ 29,530.792022-05-26 04:00 @ 29,832.374h−$27.57-1.11%signal
26short2022-05-24 00:00 @ 29,091.982022-05-25 04:00 @ 30,195.041d 4h−$97.46-3.90%signal
25short2022-05-20 20:00 @ 29,263.652022-05-23 00:00 @ 30,290.062d 4h−$90.77-3.60%signal
24short2022-05-05 16:00 @ 36,879.122022-05-20 12:00 @ 30,418.4814d 20h$423.66+17.54%signal
23short2022-04-29 20:00 @ 38,307.542022-05-04 12:00 @ 38,995.304d 16h−$43.95-1.81%signal
22short2022-04-26 20:00 @ 38,242.952022-04-28 20:00 @ 39,982.692d−$114.78-4.67%signal
21short2022-04-22 04:00 @ 40,462.412022-04-25 20:00 @ 40,212.043d 16h$10.51+0.43%signal
20long2022-04-21 12:00 @ 42,426.482022-04-21 20:00 @ 40,420.058h−$119.97-4.83%stop loss
19short2022-04-07 00:00 @ 43,151.172022-04-19 00:00 @ 40,793.8612d$133.83+5.46%signal
18long2022-04-05 00:00 @ 46,590.222022-04-05 16:00 @ 45,731.3516h−$48.31-1.96%signal
17long2022-04-04 04:00 @ 45,999.502022-04-04 16:00 @ 45,617.8712h−$23.17-0.94%signal
16long2022-03-16 12:00 @ 40,501.002022-03-31 20:00 @ 45,568.9815d 8h$288.35+12.04%signal
15short2022-03-11 20:00 @ 38,768.242022-03-15 00:00 @ 39,659.533d 4h−$58.41-2.42%signal
14long2022-03-09 08:00 @ 41,778.952022-03-10 08:00 @ 39,212.161d−$153.51-6.27%signal
13short2022-03-04 20:00 @ 39,777.342022-03-09 04:00 @ 41,206.644d 8h−$90.18-3.65%signal
12long2022-02-28 20:00 @ 41,314.762022-03-04 16:00 @ 40,686.463d 20h−$42.62-1.72%signal
11short2022-02-28 12:00 @ 38,302.742022-02-28 16:00 @ 40,800.964h−$167.17-6.63%signal
10short2022-02-17 20:00 @ 41,168.862022-02-25 04:00 @ 38,906.787d 8h$134.00+5.38%signal
9long2022-02-15 04:00 @ 43,543.812022-02-17 16:00 @ 41,899.422d 12h−$98.62-3.92%signal
8long2022-02-04 20:00 @ 40,711.472022-02-12 00:00 @ 42,357.527d 4h$95.21+3.82%signal
7short2022-02-02 16:00 @ 37,412.052022-02-04 08:00 @ 37,866.571d 16h−$32.97-1.32%signal
6short2022-01-31 08:00 @ 37,091.262022-01-31 16:00 @ 37,702.008h−$44.04-1.75%signal
5short2022-01-21 04:00 @ 38,440.232022-01-26 12:00 @ 38,053.535d 8h$23.95+0.96%signal
4short2022-01-16 20:00 @ 42,808.452022-01-20 16:00 @ 43,284.413d 20h−$28.14-1.12%signal
3short2022-01-16 12:00 @ 42,951.412022-01-16 16:00 @ 43,216.654h−$18.06-0.72%signal
2short2022-01-14 12:00 @ 41,974.722022-01-15 16:00 @ 43,378.671d 4h−$87.29-3.44%signal
1short2022-01-01 00:00 @ 46,201.332022-01-12 16:00 @ 43,558.7111d 16h$148.38+5.94%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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