[Mine-Q] Trend + momentum ensemble

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 4h · 2021-12-312026-08-31 · 10,227 bars in 7.7ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +63.63% over the same period, against this strategy’s +17.75%.

Net P&L
+17.75%
$1,774.88
Max drawdown
-18.35%
Max run-up
+41.69%
Trades
352
29.3% win rate
Profit factor
1.14
2021-12-31drawdown · worst -18.35%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+24.14%-10.71%21128%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-10.21%-16.53%7628%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-08-31+5.64%-9.26%6534%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.39
Sortino
0.56
Calmar
0.19
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.97
CAGR
+3.56%
Exposure
73.3%

Per trade

Expectancy
$5.04 · +0.22%
Average win / loss
$142.49 / −$51.82
Payoff ratio
2.75
Largest win / loss
$931.07 / −$305.14
Longest losing streak(winning: 4)
15 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-18.35%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
910 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$1,019.89
Funding
−$319.59
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
199
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+63.63%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 352 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-19.91%+17.34%+73.68%
Max drawdown-29.27%-16.48%-9.68%

23% of histories lost money, and 40% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -18.35%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

ema200 length
200
ema50 length
50
roc20 length
20
macd fast length
12
macd slow length
26
macd signal length
9
atr14 length
14
Long entry: roc20 > ▢
0
Long entry: macd.hist > ▢
0
Short entry: roc20 < ▢
0
Short entry: macd.hist < ▢
0
Stop loss (× atr14)
3
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

352 trades · 201–352 shown

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
201long2024-09-17 16:00 @ 61,123.222024-09-30 12:00 @ 63,781.6412d 20h$124.55+4.06%signal
202short2024-10-02 00:00 @ 60,764.542024-10-05 04:00 @ 61,847.873d 4h−$56.96-1.84%reverse
203long2024-10-05 08:00 @ 62,055.412024-10-05 12:00 @ 62,136.674h$0.92+0.03%signal
204long2024-10-05 16:00 @ 62,143.932024-10-05 20:00 @ 61,810.044h−$19.67-0.64%signal
205long2024-10-06 00:00 @ 62,035.502024-10-06 04:00 @ 61,840.134h−$12.78-0.42%signal
206long2024-10-06 08:00 @ 61,932.182024-10-06 12:00 @ 62,054.594h$2.90+0.09%signal
207long2024-10-06 16:00 @ 62,702.942024-10-08 00:00 @ 62,178.161d 8h−$29.11-0.95%signal
208long2024-10-08 04:00 @ 62,614.822024-10-08 08:00 @ 62,278.944h−$19.52-0.64%signal
209short2024-10-09 20:00 @ 61,001.402024-10-11 16:00 @ 62,230.441d 20h−$64.39-2.10%signal
210long2024-10-11 20:00 @ 63,054.912024-10-13 16:00 @ 62,182.761d 20h−$45.57-1.50%signal
211long2024-10-13 20:00 @ 62,711.742024-10-23 04:00 @ 67,044.399d 8h$197.73+6.51%signal
212long2024-10-24 20:00 @ 68,293.362024-10-25 20:00 @ 66,812.331d−$70.88-2.30%signal
213long2024-10-27 16:00 @ 67,773.452024-11-01 04:00 @ 69,383.824d 12h$65.36+2.13%signal
214long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 74,381.972024-11-25 20:00 @ 94,704.7619d 16h$806.43+26.15%signal
215long2024-11-29 04:00 @ 96,665.832024-12-02 12:00 @ 95,172.363d 8h−$59.52-1.81%signal
216long2024-12-04 20:00 @ 97,302.862024-12-05 20:00 @ 93,036.831d−$151.62-4.64%stop loss
217long2024-12-06 20:00 @ 101,552.912024-12-09 12:00 @ 98,137.872d 16h−$116.99-3.62%signal
218long2024-12-11 16:00 @ 100,372.772024-12-18 20:00 @ 102,761.247d 4h$66.06+2.06%signal
219short2024-12-20 12:00 @ 92,696.562024-12-24 16:00 @ 98,263.154d 4h−$193.03-5.99%signal
220long2024-12-25 00:00 @ 98,646.632024-12-25 12:00 @ 97,868.8212h−$28.80-0.91%signal
221long2024-12-25 16:00 @ 98,513.002024-12-26 08:00 @ 97,649.9716h−$31.50-1.00%signal
222short2024-12-28 00:00 @ 94,240.052024-12-31 16:00 @ 95,408.383d 16h−$39.48-1.25%signal
223long2025-01-02 08:00 @ 95,834.562025-01-07 16:00 @ 97,895.825d 8h$59.94+1.90%signal
224short2025-01-07 20:00 @ 96,414.012025-01-14 12:00 @ 96,527.606d 16h−$3.15-0.10%signal
225long2025-01-14 16:00 @ 96,436.082025-01-23 04:00 @ 102,396.628d 12h$184.86+5.85%signal
226long2025-01-24 12:00 @ 105,395.172025-01-27 00:00 @ 102,539.492d 12h−$91.93-2.87%signal
227short2025-01-27 08:00 @ 98,976.502025-01-29 16:00 @ 103,856.432d 8h−$158.37-4.97%stop loss
228long2025-01-30 04:00 @ 105,176.632025-01-31 20:00 @ 102,255.241d 16h−$91.72-2.92%signal
229short2025-02-02 00:00 @ 100,583.482025-02-03 20:00 @ 101,852.271d 20h−$41.52-1.33%signal
230short2025-02-06 00:00 @ 96,533.892025-02-11 08:00 @ 98,250.855d 8h−$56.46-1.81%signal
231short2025-02-11 20:00 @ 94,969.002025-02-13 00:00 @ 97,835.861d 4h−$96.29-3.11%signal
232short2025-02-13 16:00 @ 95,924.012025-02-14 20:00 @ 97,917.981d 4h−$66.44-2.16%signal
233short2025-02-17 08:00 @ 96,004.602025-02-20 00:00 @ 96,617.222d 16h−$20.69-0.68%signal
234long2025-02-20 20:00 @ 98,389.572025-02-21 16:00 @ 95,332.6320h−$97.88-3.21%stop loss
235short2025-02-21 20:00 @ 95,228.352025-03-02 20:00 @ 93,485.899d$55.01+1.82%signal
236long2025-03-03 00:00 @ 94,240.842025-03-03 16:00 @ 87,759.7016h−$212.05-6.97%stop loss
237short2025-03-04 04:00 @ 83,912.112025-03-04 20:00 @ 88,182.9316h−$155.09-5.19%signal
238short2025-03-08 04:00 @ 85,862.822025-03-14 16:00 @ 84,709.046d 12h$38.53+1.31%signal
239short2025-03-16 12:00 @ 82,351.432025-03-17 20:00 @ 84,453.091d 8h−$78.15-2.64%signal
240short2025-03-18 04:00 @ 83,090.982025-03-19 12:00 @ 83,865.271d 8h−$29.99-1.02%signal
241short2025-03-21 04:00 @ 84,393.122025-03-21 12:00 @ 84,022.708h$10.10+0.34%signal
242short2025-03-23 00:00 @ 83,788.142025-03-23 04:00 @ 84,211.944h−$17.72-0.60%signal
243short2025-03-23 08:00 @ 84,213.052025-03-23 12:00 @ 84,668.334h−$18.78-0.64%signal
244long2025-03-24 12:00 @ 87,661.132025-03-27 20:00 @ 87,008.493d 8h−$24.52-0.84%reverse
245short2025-03-28 04:00 @ 86,729.452025-04-01 16:00 @ 85,262.554d 12h$47.77+1.64%signal
246long2025-04-02 16:00 @ 86,726.842025-04-02 20:00 @ 83,131.004h−$124.40-4.24%stop loss
247short2025-04-03 20:00 @ 81,961.002025-04-04 20:00 @ 83,986.091d−$74.08-2.55%signal
248short2025-04-05 16:00 @ 82,559.982025-04-09 20:00 @ 82,307.864d 4h$7.22+0.25%signal
249long2025-04-12 16:00 @ 84,991.092025-04-16 00:00 @ 83,591.883d 8h−$51.83-1.80%reverse
250short2025-04-16 04:00 @ 83,637.172025-04-16 08:00 @ 83,341.674h$7.27+0.25%signal
251long2025-04-19 12:00 @ 85,196.342025-04-20 12:00 @ 84,067.781d−$40.80-1.42%signal
252long2025-04-21 04:00 @ 87,184.032025-05-05 00:00 @ 94,211.3513d 20h$228.92+8.00%signal
253long2025-05-07 00:00 @ 96,818.262025-05-15 08:00 @ 101,713.658d 8h$139.86+4.79%signal
254long2025-05-16 16:00 @ 104,164.832025-05-19 12:00 @ 102,891.522d 20h−$40.40-1.37%signal
255long2025-05-19 20:00 @ 105,478.992025-05-25 16:00 @ 106,906.615d 20h$33.12+1.13%signal
256long2025-05-26 20:00 @ 109,096.212025-05-28 16:00 @ 107,044.091d 20h−$59.12-2.00%signal
257long2025-06-03 00:00 @ 105,835.562025-06-03 04:00 @ 105,427.714h−$14.40-0.49%signal
258long2025-06-03 08:00 @ 105,155.432025-06-03 12:00 @ 105,219.054h−$1.34-0.05%signal
259long2025-06-03 16:00 @ 106,577.412025-06-04 00:00 @ 105,309.038h−$37.95-1.29%signal
260long2025-06-04 04:00 @ 105,495.892025-06-04 08:00 @ 105,239.054h−$10.04-0.34%signal
261long2025-06-04 12:00 @ 105,065.212025-06-04 16:00 @ 105,233.654h$1.76+0.06%signal
262long2025-06-04 20:00 @ 104,891.372025-06-05 00:00 @ 104,620.874h−$10.45-0.36%signal
263short2025-06-05 20:00 @ 101,852.632025-06-06 16:00 @ 105,056.4120h−$94.97-3.25%signal
264long2025-06-07 16:00 @ 105,529.002025-06-12 12:00 @ 106,841.534d 20h$31.07+1.07%signal
265short2025-06-13 04:00 @ 104,213.052025-06-16 08:00 @ 107,045.203d 4h−$81.35-2.80%signal
266long2025-06-16 12:00 @ 106,863.972025-06-17 12:00 @ 105,571.781d−$38.02-1.32%signal
267short2025-06-17 16:00 @ 104,178.362025-06-20 08:00 @ 105,784.752d 16h−$46.67-1.62%signal
268short2025-06-20 20:00 @ 103,243.152025-06-24 00:00 @ 105,312.063d 4h−$59.34-2.07%signal
269long2025-06-24 04:00 @ 104,890.972025-07-01 12:00 @ 106,535.497d 8h$40.20+1.41%signal
270long2025-07-02 16:00 @ 108,717.142025-07-04 16:00 @ 107,513.092d−$35.28-1.23%signal
271long2025-07-07 00:00 @ 109,167.632025-07-08 04:00 @ 107,830.931d 4h−$38.02-1.33%signal
272long2025-07-09 00:00 @ 108,894.972025-07-21 00:00 @ 117,192.6612d$203.25+7.16%signal
273long2025-07-21 08:00 @ 119,376.172025-07-21 20:00 @ 116,701.3612h−$68.16-2.36%signal
274long2025-07-22 12:00 @ 119,166.032025-07-25 04:00 @ 115,361.622d 16h−$96.80-3.37%signal
275long2025-07-27 16:00 @ 118,604.622025-07-29 16:00 @ 117,322.232d−$35.34-1.24%signal
276short2025-08-01 20:00 @ 113,255.742025-08-05 12:00 @ 114,805.063d 16h−$40.06-1.41%reverse
277long2025-08-06 16:00 @ 115,389.272025-08-07 00:00 @ 114,918.018h−$14.61-0.52%signal
278long2025-08-07 08:00 @ 114,774.152025-08-14 16:00 @ 118,162.267d 8h$75.19+2.66%signal
279short2025-08-18 04:00 @ 115,241.752025-08-22 16:00 @ 116,342.664d 12h−$28.19-0.99%signal
280long2025-08-22 20:00 @ 116,648.732025-08-23 12:00 @ 115,243.7516h−$37.55-1.32%signal
281short2025-08-24 20:00 @ 112,533.892025-08-28 08:00 @ 113,101.923d 12h−$15.35-0.54%signal
282short2025-08-29 16:00 @ 108,312.732025-09-02 16:00 @ 110,812.064d−$65.95-2.34%signal
283short2025-09-06 00:00 @ 110,592.682025-09-06 04:00 @ 111,056.214h−$14.54-0.52%signal
284short2025-09-06 08:00 @ 110,757.742025-09-07 12:00 @ 111,271.751d 4h−$15.36-0.55%signal
285long2025-09-09 08:00 @ 112,972.792025-09-09 16:00 @ 110,807.938h−$56.71-2.03%signal
286long2025-09-10 16:00 @ 113,824.062025-09-19 20:00 @ 115,059.389d 4h$23.35+0.84%signal
287short2025-09-22 08:00 @ 112,432.012025-09-29 00:00 @ 112,142.126d 16h$7.06+0.25%signal
288long2025-09-29 16:00 @ 113,774.752025-10-09 20:00 @ 120,873.4210d 4h$164.99+5.91%signal
289short2025-10-10 20:00 @ 116,581.882025-10-20 08:00 @ 111,148.439d 12h$128.63+4.54%signal
290short2025-10-23 00:00 @ 107,510.592025-10-23 16:00 @ 109,870.9716h−$65.50-2.28%signal
291long2025-10-26 12:00 @ 113,257.752025-10-29 16:00 @ 111,438.413d 4h−$50.19-1.76%signal
292short2025-10-29 20:00 @ 110,583.782025-11-02 08:00 @ 110,866.173d 12h−$8.22-0.29%signal
293short2025-11-03 08:00 @ 107,399.122025-11-09 20:00 @ 104,785.056d 12h$69.15+2.44%signal
294short2025-11-12 20:00 @ 101,225.052025-11-26 20:00 @ 89,941.2814d$321.11+11.25%signal
295short2025-11-30 12:00 @ 90,982.702025-11-30 16:00 @ 91,424.184h−$17.17-0.59%signal
296short2025-12-01 00:00 @ 90,302.442025-12-02 16:00 @ 90,827.361d 16h−$19.69-0.67%signal
297short2025-12-06 00:00 @ 89,270.742025-12-07 20:00 @ 91,398.081d 20h−$72.20-2.47%signal
298short2025-12-11 04:00 @ 89,815.132025-12-12 00:00 @ 92,496.1020h−$89.57-3.08%signal
299short2025-12-12 16:00 @ 89,877.022025-12-20 08:00 @ 88,257.657d 16h$52.42+1.82%signal
300short2025-12-23 08:00 @ 87,513.792025-12-25 16:00 @ 88,356.672d 8h−$29.50-1.02%signal
301short2025-12-26 20:00 @ 87,436.212025-12-29 00:00 @ 87,937.982d 4h−$18.67-0.65%signal
302long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 90,109.522025-12-29 08:00 @ 87,772.454h−$77.95-2.70%stop loss
303short2025-12-29 20:00 @ 87,311.432025-12-30 12:00 @ 87,892.8816h−$21.54-0.75%signal
304short2025-12-31 20:00 @ 87,497.502026-01-01 12:00 @ 87,997.7016h−$18.64-0.65%signal
305short2026-01-01 16:00 @ 87,969.202026-01-01 20:00 @ 88,372.474h−$15.90-0.56%signal
306long2026-01-02 20:00 @ 89,882.972026-01-08 04:00 @ 90,761.845d 8h$22.54+0.79%signal
307short2026-01-08 12:00 @ 90,174.162026-01-09 00:00 @ 91,078.0112h−$31.32-1.10%signal
308short2026-01-09 20:00 @ 90,272.542026-01-11 16:00 @ 90,852.171d 20h−$20.21-0.71%signal
309long2026-01-11 20:00 @ 90,662.832026-01-12 12:00 @ 90,555.7916h−$6.34-0.22%signal
310long2026-01-12 16:00 @ 91,636.922026-01-19 00:00 @ 93,595.286d 8h$55.75+1.96%signal
311short2026-01-20 08:00 @ 91,117.872026-01-28 12:00 @ 90,054.918d 4h$34.35+1.20%signal
312short2026-01-29 16:00 @ 84,880.922026-02-14 12:00 @ 70,478.8915d 20h$482.30+16.83%signal
313short2026-02-17 04:00 @ 68,429.912026-02-21 16:00 @ 68,585.214d 12h−$9.09-0.30%signal
314short2026-02-23 04:00 @ 64,881.122026-02-25 16:00 @ 67,375.872d 12h−$117.77-3.95%signal
315short2026-02-28 08:00 @ 63,774.642026-02-28 20:00 @ 67,484.6712h−$175.12-5.93%stop loss
316short2026-03-01 00:00 @ 66,923.612026-03-01 04:00 @ 67,488.294h−$27.50-0.94%signal
317long2026-03-04 16:00 @ 73,354.372026-03-06 12:00 @ 68,200.601d 20h−$207.13-7.13%stop loss
318short2026-03-07 04:00 @ 68,049.692026-03-09 16:00 @ 68,846.172d 12h−$36.79-1.29%signal
319long2026-03-10 12:00 @ 70,584.212026-03-18 16:00 @ 71,422.018d 4h$32.53+1.14%signal
320short2026-03-18 20:00 @ 71,016.092026-03-23 20:00 @ 70,661.235d$10.90+0.38%signal
321long2026-03-24 00:00 @ 70,880.172026-03-24 16:00 @ 69,823.6316h−$45.59-1.60%signal
322long2026-03-25 08:00 @ 70,914.082026-03-26 08:00 @ 70,039.791d−$38.09-1.34%signal
323short2026-03-26 20:00 @ 68,489.002026-04-01 00:00 @ 68,255.055d 4h$6.05+0.21%signal
324short2026-04-02 12:00 @ 66,167.362026-04-06 00:00 @ 69,011.703d 12h−$124.44-4.39%signal
325long2026-04-06 04:00 @ 69,106.122026-04-13 00:00 @ 70,697.066d 20h$61.72+2.20%signal
326long2026-04-14 00:00 @ 74,399.782026-04-20 00:00 @ 73,743.656d−$25.06-0.89%signal
327long2026-04-22 00:00 @ 76,303.562026-04-27 16:00 @ 76,744.655d 16h$14.96+0.53%signal
328long2026-04-29 12:00 @ 77,568.012026-04-29 16:00 @ 75,873.924h−$64.28-2.28%signal
329long2026-05-01 04:00 @ 77,098.022026-05-12 16:00 @ 80,285.5411d 12h$113.88+4.07%signal
330long2026-05-14 20:00 @ 81,390.072026-05-15 12:00 @ 78,708.8816h−$95.77-3.39%stop loss
331short2026-05-18 00:00 @ 77,414.912026-05-21 08:00 @ 77,861.673d 8h−$17.67-0.63%reverse
332long2026-05-22 04:00 @ 77,755.452026-05-22 08:00 @ 77,351.334h−$17.34-0.62%signal
333short2026-05-22 20:00 @ 75,811.932026-05-24 12:00 @ 77,304.961d 16h−$57.15-2.04%signal
334long2026-05-25 16:00 @ 77,602.722026-05-26 04:00 @ 76,613.6712h−$38.47-1.38%signal
335short2026-05-27 04:00 @ 75,620.472026-06-12 12:00 @ 63,742.1516d 8h$437.48+15.79%signal
336short2026-06-17 20:00 @ 64,258.552026-06-20 16:00 @ 64,152.232d 20h$2.59+0.09%signal
337short2026-06-23 08:00 @ 62,836.732026-07-02 04:00 @ 61,045.118d 20h$82.17+2.85%signal
338long2026-07-07 00:00 @ 64,036.302026-07-08 04:00 @ 62,728.451d 4h−$62.93-2.17%reverse
339short2026-07-08 08:00 @ 62,841.532026-07-09 08:00 @ 62,986.191d−$9.13-0.32%signal
340short2026-07-09 12:00 @ 62,743.352026-07-09 16:00 @ 62,847.974h−$7.69-0.27%signal
341long2026-07-10 04:00 @ 63,930.082026-07-13 04:00 @ 62,767.543d−$56.76-1.97%signal
342short2026-07-13 08:00 @ 62,940.212026-07-14 12:00 @ 64,860.371d 4h−$89.64-3.13%stop loss
343long2026-07-14 16:00 @ 64,740.352026-07-17 04:00 @ 63,525.292d 12h−$57.74-2.03%signal
344long2026-07-19 16:00 @ 64,558.212026-07-23 16:00 @ 64,927.414d$11.95+0.42%signal
345short2026-07-24 16:00 @ 64,052.292026-07-26 16:00 @ 64,746.452d−$32.77-1.16%signal
346long2026-07-27 00:00 @ 65,388.282026-07-27 16:00 @ 64,504.3016h−$41.36-1.46%signal
347short2026-07-28 00:00 @ 63,707.962026-07-29 08:00 @ 64,552.011d 8h−$39.54-1.40%signal
348long2026-07-31 00:00 @ 64,762.952026-07-31 04:00 @ 64,331.134h−$21.78-0.78%signal
349short2026-07-31 16:00 @ 62,682.762026-08-03 20:00 @ 63,849.673d 4h−$53.36-1.91%signal
350long2026-08-04 16:00 @ 64,101.122026-08-10 16:00 @ 64,255.856d$1.40+0.05%signal
351short2026-08-10 20:00 @ 64,004.402026-08-17 12:00 @ 63,612.726d 16h$17.37+0.62%signal
352long2026-08-17 16:00 @ 64,182.632026-08-31 20:00 @ 78,533.8914d 4h$609.42+21.83%end of data

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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