[Famous-PA] Raschke Turtle Soup

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 1d · 2021-12-282026-08-31 · 1,708 bars in 4.7ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +65.29% over the same period, against this strategy’s -6.32%.

Net P&L
-6.32%
−$632.45
Max drawdown
-13.01%
Max run-up
+17.72%
Trades
123
44.7% win rate
Profit factor
0.92
2021-12-28drawdown · worst -13.01%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-18+2.03%-13.01%7847%
Validation2024-10-182025-09-24-1.41%-6.05%2348%
Out-of-sample2025-09-242026-08-31-6.88%-11.84%2232%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
-0.14
Sortino
-0.20
Calmar
-0.11
Return ÷ max drawdown
-0.49
CAGR
-1.39%
Exposure
44.7%

Per trade

Expectancy
−$5.14 · -0.17%
Average win / loss
$129.80 / −$114.28
Payoff ratio
1.14
Largest win / loss
$437.18 / −$319.85
Longest losing streak(winning: 3)
6 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-13.01%
Longest time under water
909 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
909 days
Under water at the end
322 days

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$296.50
Funding
$114.87
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
19
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+65.29%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 123 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-28.30%-7.51%+25.96%
Max drawdown-32.86%-18.76%-9.28%

67% of histories lost money, and 79% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -13.01%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

ll20 length
20
hh20 length
20
atr14 length
14
Stop loss (× atr14)
1.5
Trailing stop (× atr14)
2
Close after (bars)
10
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

123 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1long2022-01-11 00:00 @ 41,809.912022-01-21 00:00 @ 39,898.6210d−$120.65-4.83%trailing stop
2long2022-01-25 00:00 @ 36,655.632022-02-04 00:00 @ 37,203.6310d$34.11+1.38%trailing stop
3short2022-02-09 00:00 @ 44,012.782022-02-20 00:00 @ 40,060.6111d$224.54+9.06%time stop
4long2022-02-25 00:00 @ 38,323.862022-02-28 00:00 @ 38,984.023d$40.80+1.61%trailing stop
5long2022-04-19 00:00 @ 40,793.862022-04-22 00:00 @ 39,300.283d−$96.19-3.78%trailing stop
6long2022-04-26 00:00 @ 40,419.082022-04-30 00:00 @ 37,637.924d−$176.60-7.01%trailing stop
7long2022-05-02 00:00 @ 38,447.892022-05-05 00:00 @ 36,638.543d−$121.69-4.91%trailing stop
8long2022-05-07 00:00 @ 36,002.402022-05-09 00:00 @ 33,225.572d−$192.06-7.85%trailing stop
9long2022-05-11 00:00 @ 31,008.302022-05-11 00:00 @ 27,672.780m−$260.47-10.86%trailing stop
10long2022-05-13 00:00 @ 29,026.602022-05-24 00:00 @ 29,091.9811d−$1.09-0.05%time stop
11short2022-06-01 00:00 @ 31,791.542022-06-12 00:00 @ 28,422.2811d$248.74+10.66%time stop
12long2022-06-15 00:00 @ 22,127.122022-06-18 00:00 @ 19,191.183d−$319.85-13.36%trailing stop
13short2022-07-09 00:00 @ 21,583.482022-07-16 00:00 @ 21,487.897d$10.88+0.47%trailing stop
14short2022-07-19 00:00 @ 22,419.022022-07-28 00:00 @ 23,163.949d−$73.87-3.19%trailing stop
15short2022-07-30 00:00 @ 23,766.252022-08-10 00:00 @ 23,144.7311d$62.60+2.72%time stop
16short2022-08-12 00:00 @ 23,912.522022-08-19 00:00 @ 22,991.257d$88.28+3.81%trailing stop
17long2022-08-21 00:00 @ 21,131.932022-08-27 00:00 @ 19,928.596d−$134.62-5.76%trailing stop
18long2022-09-08 00:00 @ 19,290.862022-09-09 00:00 @ 19,751.081d$51.85+2.25%trailing stop
19short2022-09-14 00:00 @ 20,158.572022-09-20 00:00 @ 19,532.516d$70.69+3.05%reverse
20long2022-09-22 00:00 @ 18,451.192022-10-03 00:00 @ 19,045.4911d$69.62+2.98%time stop
21long2022-10-14 00:00 @ 19,369.272022-10-25 00:00 @ 19,314.2411d−$13.26-0.56%time stop
22short2022-10-30 00:00 @ 20,792.542022-11-04 00:00 @ 21,276.335d−$55.93-2.38%trailing stop
23short2022-11-06 00:00 @ 21,285.542022-11-08 00:00 @ 18,562.262d$297.89+12.76%trailing stop
24long2022-11-22 00:00 @ 15,776.052022-12-03 00:00 @ 17,079.5811d$194.26+8.07%time stop
25short2022-12-06 00:00 @ 16,954.812022-12-13 00:00 @ 17,779.397d−$120.81-4.92%trailing stop
26short2022-12-15 00:00 @ 17,800.442022-12-26 00:00 @ 16,827.8611d$134.41+5.54%time stop
27short2023-01-10 00:00 @ 17,166.172023-01-11 00:00 @ 17,629.461d−$68.39-2.78%trailing stop
28short2023-01-18 00:00 @ 21,126.572023-01-18 00:00 @ 21,664.630m−$63.98-2.62%trailing stop
29short2023-01-19 00:00 @ 20,675.962023-01-20 00:00 @ 21,623.891d−$112.23-4.62%trailing stop
30short2023-01-26 00:00 @ 23,055.992023-02-02 00:00 @ 24,085.687d−$103.81-4.33%trailing stop
31short2023-02-03 00:00 @ 23,488.302023-02-14 00:00 @ 21,770.4511d$178.01+7.50%time stop
32short2023-02-17 00:00 @ 23,521.892023-02-17 00:00 @ 24,958.610m−$149.41-6.18%trailing stop
33short2023-02-22 00:00 @ 24,438.412023-03-05 00:00 @ 22,340.2711d$205.91+8.65%time stop
34long2023-03-11 00:00 @ 20,144.332023-03-12 00:00 @ 20,275.481d$13.31+0.55%trailing stop
35short2023-03-21 00:00 @ 27,698.562023-03-30 00:00 @ 29,132.229d−$126.00-5.17%trailing stop
36short2023-03-31 00:00 @ 28,009.402023-04-10 00:00 @ 29,637.0310d−$139.59-5.81%trailing stop
37short2023-04-14 00:00 @ 30,356.632023-04-22 00:00 @ 27,258.058d$243.03+10.26%reverse
38long2023-04-25 00:00 @ 27,502.902023-04-26 00:00 @ 27,724.161d$16.20+0.67%trailing stop
39long2023-05-11 00:00 @ 27,588.522023-05-12 00:00 @ 25,930.591d−$149.18-6.13%trailing stop
40long2023-05-13 00:00 @ 26,790.562023-05-24 00:00 @ 27,204.4611d$30.75+1.28%time stop
41short2023-05-30 00:00 @ 27,716.562023-06-05 00:00 @ 27,107.886d$54.04+2.25%trailing stop
42long2023-06-07 00:00 @ 27,226.942023-06-10 00:00 @ 25,754.923d−$134.70-5.57%trailing stop
43long2023-06-11 00:00 @ 25,831.772023-06-21 00:00 @ 28,673.3910d$255.83+10.73%trailing stop
44short2023-06-24 00:00 @ 30,667.372023-07-05 00:00 @ 30,762.2511d−$2.23-0.09%time stop
45short2023-07-07 00:00 @ 29,868.332023-07-13 00:00 @ 31,333.986d−$120.59-4.93%trailing stop
46short2023-07-14 00:00 @ 31,435.312023-07-19 00:00 @ 29,851.675d$121.19+5.01%reverse
47long2023-08-02 00:00 @ 29,707.142023-08-13 00:00 @ 29,414.9211d−$33.90-1.39%time stop
48short2023-10-03 00:00 @ 27,472.202023-10-14 00:00 @ 26,855.0711d$54.63+2.24%time stop
49short2023-10-17 00:00 @ 28,480.602023-10-20 00:00 @ 29,709.053d−$108.81-4.44%trailing stop
50short2023-11-03 00:00 @ 34,933.112023-11-09 00:00 @ 36,542.646d−$108.82-4.49%trailing stop
51short2023-11-30 00:00 @ 37,829.632023-12-02 00:00 @ 39,633.232d−$114.71-4.78%trailing stop
52short2023-12-09 00:00 @ 44,200.762023-12-11 00:00 @ 43,184.932d$55.79+2.35%trailing stop
53long2024-01-04 00:00 @ 42,858.072024-01-08 00:00 @ 43,520.174d$30.70+1.29%trailing stop
54short2024-01-10 00:00 @ 46,104.682024-01-11 00:00 @ 48,538.551d−$127.24-5.32%trailing stop
55short2024-01-12 00:00 @ 46,328.632024-01-12 00:00 @ 46,225.570m$3.55+0.15%trailing stop
56long2024-01-20 00:00 @ 41,670.432024-01-23 00:00 @ 38,731.703d−$171.49-7.27%trailing stop
57long2024-01-24 00:00 @ 39,897.882024-02-04 00:00 @ 42,983.8011d$169.42+7.31%time stop
58short2024-02-14 00:00 @ 49,686.462024-02-15 00:00 @ 52,241.111d−$122.21-5.18%trailing stop
59short2024-02-16 00:00 @ 51,888.022024-02-26 00:00 @ 53,627.9910d−$69.67-2.99%trailing stop
60short2024-03-06 00:00 @ 63,734.752024-03-08 00:00 @ 68,468.452d−$164.69-7.12%trailing stop
61short2024-03-09 00:00 @ 68,166.562024-03-11 00:00 @ 72,684.352d−$143.32-6.31%trailing stop
62short2024-03-13 00:00 @ 71,489.002024-03-24 00:00 @ 64,033.2011d$246.79+11.04%time stop
63short2024-04-09 00:00 @ 71,663.962024-04-13 00:00 @ 67,239.184d$144.57+6.30%trailing stop
64long2024-04-14 00:00 @ 63,952.492024-04-25 00:00 @ 64,237.1511d$4.45+0.19%time stop
65long2024-05-01 00:00 @ 60,663.332024-05-12 00:00 @ 60,797.0411d−$1.07-0.05%time stop
66short2024-05-17 00:00 @ 65,204.662024-05-20 00:00 @ 69,400.793d−$151.67-6.50%trailing stop
67short2024-05-22 00:00 @ 70,154.672024-06-02 00:00 @ 67,812.7611d$82.11+3.58%time stop
68short2024-06-08 00:00 @ 69,363.122024-06-12 00:00 @ 67,334.064d$68.23+2.95%reverse
69long2024-06-15 00:00 @ 66,052.912024-06-23 00:00 @ 63,195.958d−$108.13-4.63%trailing stop
70long2024-07-06 00:00 @ 56,616.222024-07-17 00:00 @ 64,997.0011d$333.67+14.47%time stop
71short2024-07-18 00:00 @ 64,042.992024-07-21 00:00 @ 67,782.583d−$141.57-5.92%trailing stop
72short2024-07-23 00:00 @ 67,485.702024-07-27 00:00 @ 68,386.044d−$30.98-1.32%trailing stop
73short2024-07-28 00:00 @ 67,860.132024-08-05 00:00 @ 55,280.338d$437.18+18.63%trailing stop
74short2024-08-26 00:00 @ 64,177.262024-09-05 00:00 @ 57,956.3910d$236.70+9.64%reverse
75short2024-09-18 00:00 @ 60,268.942024-09-20 00:00 @ 63,926.022d−$154.37-6.14%trailing stop
76short2024-09-21 00:00 @ 63,163.162024-10-02 00:00 @ 60,788.8611d$95.15+3.84%time stop
77long2024-10-11 00:00 @ 60,305.362024-10-15 00:00 @ 66,051.694d$234.45+9.38%reverse
78short2024-10-17 00:00 @ 67,578.482024-10-28 00:00 @ 68,006.3011d−$10.51-0.41%time stop
79short2024-11-08 00:00 @ 75,844.232024-11-10 00:00 @ 79,604.202d−$126.44-4.95%trailing stop
80short2024-11-13 00:00 @ 87,954.412024-11-13 00:00 @ 93,231.730m−$152.90-6.06%trailing stop
81short2024-11-20 00:00 @ 92,317.432024-11-21 00:00 @ 97,581.281d−$142.76-5.74%trailing stop
82short2024-11-23 00:00 @ 98,901.722024-11-29 00:00 @ 98,123.736d$25.19+1.03%trailing stop
83short2024-12-06 00:00 @ 96,982.202024-12-12 00:00 @ 102,550.766d−$136.12-5.54%trailing stop
84short2024-12-16 00:00 @ 104,439.612024-12-27 00:00 @ 95,770.0511d$205.95+8.50%time stop
85long2024-12-31 00:00 @ 92,777.852025-01-08 00:00 @ 95,396.578d$60.88+2.46%trailing stop
86long2025-01-10 00:00 @ 92,524.502025-01-20 00:00 @ 101,291.2410d$228.26+9.17%reverse
87short2025-01-21 00:00 @ 102,227.252025-01-30 00:00 @ 106,454.589d−$101.51-3.99%trailing stop
88long2025-02-04 00:00 @ 101,313.862025-02-12 00:00 @ 94,158.778d−$182.88-7.25%trailing stop
89long2025-03-01 00:00 @ 84,316.462025-03-02 00:00 @ 86,306.621d$56.29+2.27%trailing stop
90long2025-03-11 00:00 @ 78,583.512025-03-22 00:00 @ 84,033.4911d$167.82+6.74%time stop
91long2025-04-08 00:00 @ 79,155.932025-04-09 00:00 @ 75,132.791d−$131.77-5.21%trailing stop
92short2025-04-24 00:00 @ 93,613.472025-05-05 00:00 @ 94,249.0511d−$20.75-0.83%time stop
93short2025-05-10 00:00 @ 102,921.312025-05-18 00:00 @ 106,613.058d−$87.79-3.52%trailing stop
94short2025-05-20 00:00 @ 105,510.392025-05-21 00:00 @ 109,934.811d−$105.20-4.26%trailing stop
95long2025-06-23 00:00 @ 100,924.882025-07-03 00:00 @ 108,778.2410d$186.00+7.61%reverse
96short2025-07-04 00:00 @ 109,523.192025-07-10 00:00 @ 112,307.016d−$63.95-2.57%trailing stop
97long2025-08-04 00:00 @ 114,173.732025-08-12 00:00 @ 118,618.078d$89.51+3.62%reverse
98short2025-08-15 00:00 @ 118,218.552025-08-23 00:00 @ 116,920.888d$28.09+1.12%reverse
99long2025-08-25 00:00 @ 113,468.892025-08-29 00:00 @ 108,508.594d−$114.18-4.56%trailing stop
100long2025-08-31 00:00 @ 108,779.752025-09-11 00:00 @ 113,874.0211d$108.49+4.38%time stop
101short2025-09-16 00:00 @ 115,277.442025-09-27 00:00 @ 109,610.4211d$124.17+4.96%time stop
102short2025-10-06 00:00 @ 123,402.012025-10-10 00:00 @ 110,089.084d$273.04+10.77%trailing stop
103long2025-10-11 00:00 @ 112,737.542025-10-16 00:00 @ 107,421.045d−$124.98-4.80%trailing stop
104long2025-11-14 00:00 @ 99,674.232025-11-16 00:00 @ 93,187.012d−$171.72-6.68%trailing stop
105long2025-11-17 00:00 @ 94,240.542025-11-20 00:00 @ 87,957.493d−$173.23-6.85%trailing stop
106short2025-12-10 00:00 @ 92,619.772025-12-21 00:00 @ 88,338.3611d$116.09+4.67%time stop
107short2026-01-03 00:00 @ 89,933.512026-01-05 00:00 @ 93,790.222d−$109.04-4.34%trailing stop
108long2026-01-22 00:00 @ 89,429.282026-01-25 00:00 @ 86,088.943d−$96.94-3.90%trailing stop
109long2026-01-31 00:00 @ 84,228.242026-01-31 00:00 @ 79,464.470m−$142.15-5.77%trailing stop
110long2026-02-03 00:00 @ 78,708.242026-02-03 00:00 @ 73,400.080m−$166.04-6.84%trailing stop
111long2026-02-04 00:00 @ 75,747.552026-02-05 00:00 @ 70,270.141d−$175.10-7.34%trailing stop
112long2026-02-07 00:00 @ 70,558.612026-02-18 00:00 @ 67,462.4011d−$103.74-4.43%time stop
113short2026-03-18 00:00 @ 73,857.532026-03-28 00:00 @ 66,377.3710d$232.05+10.02%reverse
114long2026-03-30 00:00 @ 65,991.202026-04-09 00:00 @ 71,023.9910d$177.52+7.48%reverse
115short2026-04-10 00:00 @ 71,736.052026-04-14 00:00 @ 75,455.874d−$129.01-5.33%trailing stop
116short2026-04-15 00:00 @ 74,092.082026-04-17 00:00 @ 77,936.642d−$127.11-5.33%trailing stop
117short2026-04-23 00:00 @ 78,124.072026-05-04 00:00 @ 78,544.7111d−$17.00-0.72%time stop
118short2026-05-07 00:00 @ 81,373.722026-05-18 00:00 @ 77,445.8911d$112.26+4.78%time stop
119long2026-05-24 00:00 @ 76,730.642026-05-28 00:00 @ 74,017.124d−$88.89-3.74%trailing stop
120long2026-05-30 00:00 @ 73,442.892026-06-02 00:00 @ 70,531.053d−$97.43-4.14%trailing stop
121long2026-06-25 00:00 @ 61,063.412026-07-06 00:00 @ 63,604.4811d$90.19+3.87%time stop
122short2026-07-16 00:00 @ 64,708.462026-07-21 00:00 @ 66,412.725d−$62.27-2.64%trailing stop
123short2026-08-25 00:00 @ 78,937.112026-08-31 00:00 @ 78,565.316d$12.70+0.54%end of data

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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