[Famous-Q] Time-series momentum (90-bar)

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 2h · 2021-12-312026-08-31 · 20,450 bars in 3.6ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +69.60% over the same period, against this strategy’s +7.99%.

Net P&L
+7.99%
$799.14
Max drawdown
-18.05%
Max run-up
+26.57%
Trades
740
26.9% win rate
Profit factor
1.04
2021-12-31drawdown · worst -18.05%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+15.28%-14.28%42826%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-8.07%-10.99%16530%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-08-31+1.87%-9.93%14625%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.20
Sortino
0.29
Calmar
0.09
Return ÷ max drawdown
0.44
CAGR
+1.66%
Exposure
96.4%

Per trade

Expectancy
$1.08 · +0.06%
Average win / loss
$95.09 / −$33.50
Payoff ratio
2.84
Largest win / loss
$912.49 / −$271.00
Longest losing streak(winning: 6)
20 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-18.05%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
902 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$2,003.90
Funding
−$282.07
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
90
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+69.60%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 740 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-27.03%+7.91%+65.06%
Max drawdown-37.88%-21.62%-12.08%

38% of histories lost money, and 68% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -18.05%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

roc90 length
90
Long entry: roc90 > ▢
0
Short entry: roc90 < ▢
0
Long exit: roc90 < ▢
0
Short exit: roc90 > ▢
0
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

740 trades · 601–740 shown

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
601long2025-10-29 06:00 @ 113,009.602025-10-30 14:00 @ 107,560.681d 8h−$133.24-4.93%signal
602short2025-10-30 16:00 @ 107,648.972025-10-31 02:00 @ 109,607.2210h−$51.13-1.92%signal
603short2025-10-31 04:00 @ 109,164.462025-10-31 10:00 @ 109,835.266h−$18.71-0.70%signal
604long2025-10-31 12:00 @ 110,397.782025-10-31 14:00 @ 110,098.782h−$9.83-0.37%signal
605short2025-10-31 16:00 @ 110,138.072025-11-01 04:00 @ 110,216.6412h−$4.01-0.15%signal
606short2025-11-01 06:00 @ 110,065.682025-11-11 04:00 @ 106,428.689d 22h$89.41+3.38%signal
607short2025-11-11 06:00 @ 105,182.362025-11-12 04:00 @ 103,287.8522h$45.58+1.71%signal
608long2025-11-12 06:00 @ 103,370.672025-11-12 18:00 @ 101,679.6612h−$46.69-1.74%signal
609short2025-11-12 20:00 @ 101,225.052025-11-27 04:00 @ 91,067.5114d 8h$270.65+10.14%signal
610long2025-11-27 06:00 @ 90,950.192025-11-27 12:00 @ 91,316.636h$8.22+0.30%signal
611short2025-11-27 14:00 @ 90,795.442025-11-28 04:00 @ 91,186.2314h−$14.36-0.52%signal
612long2025-11-28 06:00 @ 91,595.022025-12-01 04:00 @ 86,301.842d 22h−$161.38-5.90%signal
613short2025-12-01 06:00 @ 85,949.612025-12-01 22:00 @ 86,397.3816h−$16.62-0.62%signal
614long2025-12-02 00:00 @ 86,258.752025-12-02 06:00 @ 86,951.216h$18.93+0.70%signal
615short2025-12-02 08:00 @ 86,947.612025-12-02 14:00 @ 87,708.746h−$26.23-0.97%signal
616long2025-12-02 16:00 @ 90,827.362025-12-05 10:00 @ 91,068.182d 18h$3.72+0.14%signal
617long2025-12-05 12:00 @ 91,326.262025-12-05 14:00 @ 90,415.512h−$29.50-1.10%signal
618short2025-12-05 16:00 @ 90,395.822025-12-07 18:00 @ 90,922.382d 2h−$17.91-0.67%signal
619long2025-12-07 20:00 @ 91,398.082025-12-07 22:00 @ 90,171.162h−$38.61-1.44%signal
620short2025-12-08 00:00 @ 90,327.332025-12-08 08:00 @ 91,538.108h−$38.47-1.44%signal
621long2025-12-08 10:00 @ 91,883.672025-12-10 14:00 @ 92,036.092d 4h$1.20+0.05%signal
622short2025-12-10 16:00 @ 92,003.402025-12-12 06:00 @ 92,423.381d 14h−$14.35-0.54%signal
623long2025-12-12 08:00 @ 92,407.982025-12-12 14:00 @ 92,243.256h−$7.51-0.28%signal
624short2025-12-12 16:00 @ 89,877.022025-12-13 06:00 @ 90,319.4614h−$15.63-0.59%signal
625long2025-12-13 08:00 @ 90,304.062025-12-14 16:00 @ 88,967.401d 8h−$42.51-1.60%signal
626short2025-12-14 18:00 @ 88,742.952025-12-15 02:00 @ 89,206.848h−$16.44-0.62%signal
627short2025-12-15 04:00 @ 89,222.152025-12-22 06:00 @ 88,808.367d 2h$12.70+0.48%signal
628long2025-12-22 08:00 @ 89,145.632025-12-22 18:00 @ 89,253.1510h$0.25+0.01%signal
629short2025-12-22 20:00 @ 87,993.402025-12-23 04:00 @ 88,145.838h−$7.14-0.27%signal
630long2025-12-23 06:00 @ 87,744.252025-12-24 04:00 @ 87,293.9422h−$16.61-0.63%signal
631short2025-12-24 06:00 @ 86,902.722025-12-24 18:00 @ 87,302.0612h−$14.36-0.55%signal
632long2025-12-24 20:00 @ 87,538.902025-12-26 00:00 @ 87,165.361d 4h−$14.43-0.55%signal
633short2025-12-26 02:00 @ 87,369.222025-12-26 04:00 @ 88,813.962h−$46.06-1.75%signal
634long2025-12-26 06:00 @ 88,972.492025-12-26 20:00 @ 87,436.2114h−$48.12-1.84%signal
635short2025-12-26 22:00 @ 87,411.712025-12-27 06:00 @ 87,483.598h−$4.69-0.18%signal
636short2025-12-27 08:00 @ 87,473.402025-12-29 02:00 @ 88,436.981d 18h−$30.32-1.17%signal
637long2025-12-29 04:00 @ 90,109.522025-12-29 10:00 @ 88,050.596h−$62.06-2.39%signal
638short2025-12-29 12:00 @ 87,511.592025-12-30 16:00 @ 88,984.591d 4h−$45.48-1.76%signal
639long2025-12-30 18:00 @ 88,347.872026-01-11 14:00 @ 90,793.7411d 20h$63.61+2.48%signal
640short2026-01-11 16:00 @ 90,815.832026-01-12 02:00 @ 91,388.1710h−$18.77-0.73%signal
641long2026-01-12 04:00 @ 91,784.552026-01-12 10:00 @ 90,628.676h−$35.09-1.36%signal
642short2026-01-12 12:00 @ 90,555.792026-01-13 20:00 @ 94,198.441d 8h−$105.41-4.10%signal
643long2026-01-13 22:00 @ 94,058.812026-01-20 08:00 @ 91,117.876d 10h−$83.78-3.30%signal
644short2026-01-20 10:00 @ 90,984.802026-01-28 10:00 @ 89,560.518d$40.22+1.60%signal
645long2026-01-28 12:00 @ 90,054.912026-01-29 02:00 @ 88,543.9914h−$45.25-1.79%signal
646short2026-01-29 04:00 @ 87,985.602026-01-29 06:00 @ 88,166.932h−$7.72-0.31%signal
647short2026-01-29 08:00 @ 88,293.242026-02-13 08:00 @ 66,196.5415d$627.02+24.90%signal
648long2026-02-13 10:00 @ 66,937.782026-02-14 06:00 @ 68,724.4520h$68.68+2.57%signal
649short2026-02-14 08:00 @ 69,168.262026-02-14 20:00 @ 69,862.8712h−$29.74-1.10%signal
650long2026-02-14 22:00 @ 69,910.382026-02-15 14:00 @ 68,893.4216h−$41.81-1.56%signal
651long2026-02-15 16:00 @ 69,081.912026-02-15 18:00 @ 68,594.082h−$21.48-0.80%signal
652short2026-02-15 20:00 @ 68,250.052026-02-17 02:00 @ 68,596.421d 6h−$16.19-0.61%signal
653short2026-02-17 04:00 @ 68,429.912026-02-19 04:00 @ 66,963.792d$54.73+2.05%signal
654long2026-02-19 06:00 @ 66,860.972026-02-19 08:00 @ 67,166.962h$9.57+0.36%signal
655short2026-02-19 10:00 @ 66,798.342026-02-20 04:00 @ 67,340.6718h−$24.39-0.91%signal
656long2026-02-20 06:00 @ 67,769.652026-02-21 04:00 @ 67,623.3722h−$8.58-0.32%signal
657short2026-02-21 06:00 @ 67,813.632026-02-25 18:00 @ 68,639.334d 12h−$34.78-1.30%signal
658long2026-02-25 20:00 @ 69,019.002026-02-26 18:00 @ 66,782.0422h−$88.97-3.34%signal
659long2026-02-26 20:00 @ 67,564.212026-02-27 12:00 @ 66,080.7816h−$60.37-2.29%signal
660short2026-02-27 14:00 @ 66,226.752026-03-02 14:00 @ 65,425.383d$29.17+1.11%signal
661long2026-03-02 16:00 @ 69,102.922026-03-08 14:00 @ 67,183.365d 22h−$75.86-2.88%signal
662short2026-03-08 16:00 @ 67,161.172026-03-08 20:00 @ 67,312.464h−$8.58-0.33%signal
663long2026-03-08 22:00 @ 66,990.502026-03-09 00:00 @ 65,921.112h−$44.30-1.70%signal
664short2026-03-09 02:00 @ 66,136.872026-03-09 04:00 @ 67,178.732h−$43.60-1.68%signal
665long2026-03-09 06:00 @ 67,883.272026-03-11 22:00 @ 70,688.262d 16h$105.18+4.06%signal
666short2026-03-12 00:00 @ 70,135.972026-03-13 06:00 @ 71,529.801d 6h−$55.26-2.11%signal
667long2026-03-13 08:00 @ 71,599.522026-03-19 08:00 @ 70,130.976d−$55.62-2.14%signal
668short2026-03-19 10:00 @ 70,448.912026-03-19 14:00 @ 69,880.174h$18.32+0.71%signal
669short2026-03-19 16:00 @ 69,358.932026-03-19 18:00 @ 69,833.962h−$20.34-0.78%signal
670long2026-03-19 20:00 @ 70,247.052026-03-20 00:00 @ 69,873.424h−$16.35-0.63%signal
671long2026-03-20 02:00 @ 70,384.872026-03-20 12:00 @ 70,425.9110h−$1.10-0.04%signal
672short2026-03-20 14:00 @ 69,817.032026-04-04 00:00 @ 66,943.3914d 10h$103.06+3.99%signal
673long2026-04-04 02:00 @ 66,833.362026-04-05 08:00 @ 66,774.041d 6h−$5.14-0.20%signal
674long2026-04-05 10:00 @ 67,009.502026-04-25 04:00 @ 77,613.4719d 18h$414.53+15.89%signal
675long2026-04-25 06:00 @ 77,491.302026-04-28 22:00 @ 76,306.243d 16h−$43.43-1.60%signal
676short2026-04-29 00:00 @ 76,282.942026-04-29 02:00 @ 76,550.312h−$12.14-0.45%signal
677long2026-04-29 04:00 @ 76,971.092026-04-29 16:00 @ 75,873.9212h−$41.07-1.52%signal
678short2026-04-29 18:00 @ 76,124.072026-05-01 14:00 @ 78,707.041d 20h−$94.34-3.51%signal
679long2026-05-01 16:00 @ 78,411.082026-05-02 00:00 @ 78,176.268h−$10.56-0.40%signal
680long2026-05-02 02:00 @ 78,311.462026-05-04 14:00 @ 78,731.852d 12h$11.67+0.44%signal
681long2026-05-04 16:00 @ 79,992.602026-05-12 16:00 @ 80,285.548d$7.80+0.29%signal
682short2026-05-12 18:00 @ 80,476.902026-05-14 16:00 @ 81,261.851d 22h−$28.17-1.06%signal
683long2026-05-14 18:00 @ 81,636.322026-05-14 20:00 @ 81,357.532h−$11.74-0.44%signal
684long2026-05-14 22:00 @ 81,368.272026-05-15 14:00 @ 78,712.0516h−$89.18-3.36%signal
685short2026-05-15 16:00 @ 79,102.282026-05-25 14:00 @ 77,317.469d 22h$59.94+2.27%signal
686long2026-05-25 16:00 @ 77,602.722026-05-26 02:00 @ 76,702.4610h−$33.62-1.27%signal
687long2026-05-26 04:00 @ 76,644.332026-05-26 08:00 @ 76,669.664h−$1.77-0.07%signal
688short2026-05-26 10:00 @ 76,625.572026-05-26 12:00 @ 77,169.232h−$21.39-0.81%signal
689long2026-05-26 14:00 @ 77,214.642026-05-26 16:00 @ 76,462.902h−$28.28-1.07%signal
690short2026-05-26 18:00 @ 75,894.422026-06-11 14:00 @ 63,058.7115d 20h$446.76+17.00%signal
691short2026-06-11 16:00 @ 62,708.662026-06-11 20:00 @ 63,580.414h−$40.77-1.49%signal
692long2026-06-11 22:00 @ 63,500.002026-06-12 02:00 @ 63,390.224h−$7.41-0.27%signal
693short2026-06-12 04:00 @ 63,477.402026-06-12 10:00 @ 63,742.256h−$14.05-0.51%signal
694short2026-06-12 12:00 @ 63,716.652026-06-12 16:00 @ 63,569.814h$3.56+0.13%signal
695long2026-06-12 18:00 @ 63,849.672026-06-18 16:00 @ 62,325.335d 22h−$67.40-2.47%signal
696short2026-06-18 18:00 @ 62,566.682026-06-18 20:00 @ 62,937.892h−$18.79-0.69%signal
697long2026-06-18 22:00 @ 62,948.592026-06-19 00:00 @ 62,911.422h−$4.30-0.16%signal
698short2026-06-19 02:00 @ 62,981.902026-06-19 04:00 @ 62,757.652h$6.93+0.26%signal
699short2026-06-19 06:00 @ 62,694.562026-06-20 02:00 @ 63,563.7120h−$39.93-1.48%signal
700short2026-06-20 04:00 @ 63,427.812026-06-20 08:00 @ 63,637.734h−$11.62-0.43%signal
701long2026-06-20 10:00 @ 63,713.542026-06-20 14:00 @ 63,355.334h−$17.82-0.66%signal
702long2026-06-20 16:00 @ 64,152.232026-06-21 08:00 @ 64,157.1716h−$2.61-0.10%signal
703short2026-06-21 10:00 @ 64,176.962026-06-22 02:00 @ 64,587.4116h−$19.59-0.73%signal
704short2026-06-22 04:00 @ 63,922.312026-06-22 06:00 @ 64,232.342h−$15.69-0.59%signal
705long2026-06-22 08:00 @ 64,200.842026-06-22 10:00 @ 64,101.882h−$6.84-0.26%signal
706short2026-06-22 12:00 @ 64,611.282026-06-22 14:00 @ 65,561.012h−$42.03-1.57%signal
707short2026-06-22 16:00 @ 64,795.042026-07-02 04:00 @ 61,045.119d 12h$154.46+5.79%signal
708long2026-07-02 06:00 @ 60,492.102026-07-02 20:00 @ 61,440.1114h$39.36+1.46%signal
709short2026-07-02 22:00 @ 61,558.192026-07-03 00:00 @ 61,552.812h−$2.48-0.09%signal
710long2026-07-03 02:00 @ 61,578.912026-07-13 12:00 @ 62,868.8210d 10h$48.17+1.78%signal
711short2026-07-13 14:00 @ 62,287.642026-07-14 02:00 @ 62,517.7012h−$12.30-0.45%signal
712short2026-07-14 04:00 @ 62,525.792026-07-14 16:00 @ 64,740.3512h−$99.09-3.64%signal
713long2026-07-14 18:00 @ 64,610.422026-07-17 06:00 @ 62,794.842d 12h−$79.75-2.96%signal
714short2026-07-17 08:00 @ 62,780.242026-07-17 12:00 @ 63,285.754h−$24.21-0.90%signal
715short2026-07-17 14:00 @ 63,116.072026-07-17 20:00 @ 64,134.226h−$45.62-1.71%signal
716short2026-07-17 22:00 @ 64,057.792026-07-18 06:00 @ 63,949.098h$1.94+0.07%signal
717long2026-07-18 08:00 @ 63,992.802026-07-18 10:00 @ 63,948.312h−$4.69-0.18%signal
718short2026-07-18 12:00 @ 64,020.392026-07-18 14:00 @ 64,094.022h−$5.72-0.22%signal
719short2026-07-18 16:00 @ 64,077.182026-07-18 18:00 @ 64,462.892h−$18.58-0.70%signal
720long2026-07-18 20:00 @ 64,539.312026-07-23 18:00 @ 64,641.474d 22h−$0.19-0.01%signal
721long2026-07-23 20:00 @ 64,833.662026-07-25 06:00 @ 63,977.201d 10h−$38.34-1.44%signal
722short2026-07-25 08:00 @ 63,960.212026-07-25 12:00 @ 64,044.014h−$5.97-0.23%signal
723long2026-07-25 14:00 @ 64,149.632026-07-26 06:00 @ 64,373.1216h$6.44+0.24%signal
724short2026-07-26 08:00 @ 64,328.432026-07-26 16:00 @ 64,746.458h−$19.68-0.74%signal
725short2026-07-26 18:00 @ 64,650.372026-07-26 22:00 @ 64,834.664h−$10.17-0.39%signal
726long2026-07-27 00:00 @ 65,388.282026-07-27 16:00 @ 64,504.3016h−$38.59-1.46%signal
727long2026-07-27 18:00 @ 65,007.202026-07-28 00:00 @ 63,707.966h−$55.10-2.10%signal
728short2026-07-28 02:00 @ 63,183.262026-08-04 12:00 @ 63,912.987d 10h−$29.10-1.11%signal
729long2026-08-04 14:00 @ 63,676.432026-08-06 02:00 @ 64,547.191d 12h$32.49+1.25%signal
730long2026-08-06 04:00 @ 64,509.202026-08-06 22:00 @ 64,399.0218h−$7.30-0.28%signal
731short2026-08-07 00:00 @ 64,287.042026-08-07 10:00 @ 64,822.0610h−$24.22-0.93%signal
732long2026-08-07 12:00 @ 65,009.202026-08-11 16:00 @ 63,572.584d 4h−$61.88-2.37%signal
733short2026-08-11 18:00 @ 63,567.482026-08-11 22:00 @ 63,654.334h−$6.13-0.24%signal
734short2026-08-12 00:00 @ 63,559.192026-08-12 02:00 @ 63,808.762h−$12.50-0.48%signal
735short2026-08-12 04:00 @ 63,787.342026-08-12 12:00 @ 64,220.148h−$19.92-0.77%signal
736short2026-08-12 14:00 @ 63,793.242026-08-18 06:00 @ 64,215.545d 16h−$17.23-0.67%signal
737long2026-08-18 08:00 @ 64,183.632026-08-28 22:00 @ 77,326.5310d 14h$516.97+20.07%signal
738long2026-08-29 00:00 @ 77,821.462026-08-29 10:00 @ 77,603.4810h−$10.82-0.40%signal
739short2026-08-29 12:00 @ 77,547.892026-08-29 18:00 @ 78,088.616h−$21.29-0.79%signal
740long2026-08-29 20:00 @ 78,170.532026-08-31 22:00 @ 78,533.892d 2h$8.41+0.31%end of data

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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