[Famous-Q] Turtle System 2 (55/20)

public
@djgambhir

BTCUSDT · 4h · 2021-12-312026-08-31 · 10,228 bars in 8.2ms

Underperformed the market. Holding BTCUSDT returned +63.72% over the same period, against this strategy’s +25.58%.

Net P&L
+25.58%
$2,558.40
Max drawdown
-14.88%
Max run-up
+38.41%
Trades
143
30.8% win rate
Profit factor
1.32
2021-12-31drawdown · worst -14.88%2026-08-31
TrainingValidationOut-of-sample
SegmentPeriodReturnMax drawdownTradesWin rate
Training2022-01-012024-10-19+26.45%-9.57%8234%
Validation2024-10-192025-09-25-6.70%-12.75%3421%
Out-of-sample2025-09-252026-08-31+7.10%-7.30%2635%

Risk-adjusted

Sharpe
0.58
Sortino
0.85
Calmar
0.34
Return ÷ max drawdown
1.72
CAGR
+5.00%
Exposure
49.9%

Per trade

Expectancy
$17.89 · +0.71%
Average win / loss
$240.23 / −$80.92
Payoff ratio
2.97
Largest win / loss
$1,636.25 / −$188.11
Longest losing streak(winning: 4)
9 trades

Drawdown over time

Max drawdown
-14.88%
Longest time under water(still going at the end)
901 days
Worst drawdown recovered in
not recovered

Costs and mechanics

Fees paid
−$422.42
Funding
−$343.13
Liquidations
0
Warmup bars(loaded before the start date)
54
Benchmark(buy and hold)
+63.72%

Monte Carlo

1,000 alternative histories, each 143 trades drawn at random from this run’s own. The bands hold the middle 50% and 90% of them; the solid line is what actually happened.

this runmedian of the historiesmiddle 50% · 90%
Unlucky (5%)TypicalLucky (95%)
Return-12.84%+25.19%+91.62%
Max drawdown-23.76%-12.66%-7.45%

15% of histories lost money, and 34% had a deeper drawdown than this run’s -14.88%. Assumes trades are independent; real losing streaks cluster, so the true spread is usually wider.

Settings

hh55 length
55
ll55 length
55
hh20 length
20
ll20 length
20
atr20 length
20
Stop loss (× atr20)
2
Leverage (×)
1
Position size (% of equity)
25

BTCUSDT with every trade

Loading prices…
long opened short opened closed at a profit closed at a loss

Trades

143 trades

#SideEntryExitHeldP&LReturnClosed by
1short2021-12-31 20:00 @ 45,698.482022-01-01 16:00 @ 47,592.4420h−$105.39-4.22%stop loss
2short2022-01-05 20:00 @ 44,663.002022-01-11 20:00 @ 42,947.146d$96.62+3.91%signal
3short2022-01-21 00:00 @ 40,653.932022-01-26 12:00 @ 38,053.535d 12h$158.77+6.36%signal
4long2022-02-04 16:00 @ 39,489.622022-02-17 20:00 @ 41,168.8613d 4h$98.12+3.87%signal
5short2022-02-18 00:00 @ 40,483.702022-02-28 16:00 @ 40,800.9610d 16h−$22.75-0.89%signal
6long2022-02-28 20:00 @ 41,314.762022-03-04 16:00 @ 40,686.463d 20h−$43.91-1.72%signal
7long2022-03-24 16:00 @ 43,979.492022-03-31 16:00 @ 46,440.817d$136.05+5.35%signal
8short2022-04-06 16:00 @ 44,150.572022-04-19 16:00 @ 41,440.3913d$158.96+6.16%signal
9long2022-04-21 12:00 @ 42,426.482022-04-21 20:00 @ 41,107.608h−$84.13-3.21%stop loss
10short2022-04-25 08:00 @ 38,429.512022-04-25 16:00 @ 39,699.268h−$88.49-3.41%stop loss
11short2022-05-01 00:00 @ 37,606.882022-05-02 04:00 @ 38,924.341d 4h−$92.27-3.58%stop loss
12short2022-05-05 16:00 @ 36,879.122022-05-16 00:00 @ 31,330.5610d 8h$383.28+15.01%signal
13long2022-05-31 00:00 @ 31,732.852022-06-01 16:00 @ 30,609.651d 16h−$97.93-3.70%stop loss
14short2022-06-10 20:00 @ 28,964.812022-06-21 08:00 @ 21,112.0210d 12h$709.84+27.05%signal
15short2022-06-30 08:00 @ 19,419.222022-07-01 00:00 @ 20,337.4816h−$136.18-4.86%stop loss
16long2022-07-07 20:00 @ 21,802.262022-07-10 12:00 @ 20,868.262d 16h−$123.08-4.45%stop loss
17long2022-07-18 08:00 @ 22,247.752022-07-23 12:00 @ 22,222.355d 4h−$9.88-0.36%signal
18short2022-07-26 16:00 @ 20,733.452022-07-27 16:00 @ 21,711.451d−$131.18-4.80%stop loss
19long2022-07-30 16:00 @ 24,527.702022-07-31 16:00 @ 23,453.491d−$121.91-4.51%stop loss
20long2022-08-11 04:00 @ 24,318.462022-08-17 12:00 @ 23,482.296d 8h−$95.41-3.57%stop loss
21short2022-08-19 08:00 @ 21,888.522022-09-09 08:00 @ 20,627.7221d$149.25+5.64%signal
22long2022-09-09 12:00 @ 20,935.892022-09-13 16:00 @ 20,819.744d 4h−$20.69-0.77%signal
23short2022-09-19 04:00 @ 18,762.452022-09-19 16:00 @ 19,535.9912h−$113.43-4.23%stop loss
24short2022-10-13 12:00 @ 18,741.252022-10-13 16:00 @ 19,255.804h−$75.37-2.84%stop loss
25long2022-10-25 16:00 @ 19,744.252022-11-08 04:00 @ 20,136.5713d 12h$45.58+1.73%signal
26short2022-11-08 08:00 @ 19,781.642022-11-08 16:00 @ 20,362.178h−$80.05-3.03%stop loss
27short2022-11-08 20:00 @ 18,234.352022-11-30 04:00 @ 16,840.1721d 8h$190.70+7.27%signal
28long2022-12-01 00:00 @ 17,156.832022-12-07 04:00 @ 16,747.076d 4h−$68.17-2.55%stop loss
29long2022-12-13 12:00 @ 17,440.392022-12-16 08:00 @ 17,119.362d 20h−$53.52-2.02%stop loss
30short2022-12-17 00:00 @ 16,620.782022-12-20 16:00 @ 16,914.183d 16h−$47.90-1.81%signal
31long2023-01-09 00:00 @ 17,128.022023-01-30 20:00 @ 22,779.0421d 20h$843.05+32.07%signal
32short2023-02-09 20:00 @ 22,022.892023-02-15 12:00 @ 22,437.495d 16h−$53.00-1.87%signal
33long2023-02-16 00:00 @ 24,337.572023-02-16 20:00 @ 23,641.1920h−$84.90-3.00%stop loss
34short2023-03-03 04:00 @ 22,301.942023-03-13 00:00 @ 21,990.609d 20h$38.35+1.37%signal
35long2023-03-13 16:00 @ 24,013.802023-03-22 20:00 @ 26,647.979d 4h$297.32+10.56%signal
36long2023-04-10 20:00 @ 29,170.732023-04-17 12:00 @ 29,552.196d 16h$30.63+1.06%signal
37short2023-04-20 16:00 @ 28,486.702023-04-26 00:00 @ 28,292.365d 8h$19.40+0.67%signal
38short2023-05-08 20:00 @ 27,323.532023-05-10 12:00 @ 28,183.861d 16h−$93.70-3.23%stop loss
39short2023-05-12 04:00 @ 26,569.392023-05-15 04:00 @ 27,221.843d−$72.74-2.53%signal
40short2023-05-24 16:00 @ 26,301.642023-05-26 12:00 @ 26,867.951d 20h−$63.04-2.20%stop loss
41long2023-05-29 00:00 @ 28,061.412023-05-31 04:00 @ 27,449.002d 4h−$66.34-2.33%stop loss
42short2023-06-05 16:00 @ 25,986.702023-06-06 16:00 @ 26,595.841d−$69.08-2.44%stop loss
43short2023-06-15 00:00 @ 25,110.882023-06-16 12:00 @ 25,756.511d 12h−$74.70-2.66%stop loss
44long2023-06-20 20:00 @ 27,979.292023-07-14 20:00 @ 30,093.8824d$191.12+6.85%signal
45short2023-07-17 20:00 @ 29,863.932023-08-02 00:00 @ 29,707.1415d 4h$19.86+0.70%signal
46short2023-08-17 04:00 @ 28,637.772023-08-23 20:00 @ 26,620.526d 16h$198.23+6.97%signal
47long2023-08-29 16:00 @ 27,416.882023-08-31 12:00 @ 26,826.901d 20h−$65.52-2.26%stop loss
48short2023-09-11 16:00 @ 25,097.382023-09-12 00:00 @ 25,563.578h−$56.22-1.95%stop loss
49long2023-09-14 16:00 @ 26,685.342023-09-25 00:00 @ 26,227.1510d 8h−$52.21-1.82%signal
50long2023-10-02 00:00 @ 27,987.002023-10-02 20:00 @ 27,440.3620h−$58.64-2.06%stop loss
51short2023-10-11 04:00 @ 26,995.302023-10-16 00:00 @ 27,145.234d 20h−$17.15-0.60%signal
52long2023-10-23 04:00 @ 30,730.042023-11-14 00:00 @ 36,478.9021d 20h$502.76+17.76%signal
53long2023-11-24 16:00 @ 38,224.942023-11-26 16:00 @ 37,133.642d−$89.38-3.02%stop loss
54long2023-12-01 12:00 @ 38,585.722023-12-11 04:00 @ 42,304.249d 16h$267.51+9.11%signal
55long2023-12-20 16:00 @ 44,087.722023-12-24 20:00 @ 42,744.804d 4h−$102.71-3.42%stop loss
56long2024-01-02 00:00 @ 44,239.152024-01-03 12:00 @ 43,082.241d 12h−$86.63-2.91%stop loss
57long2024-01-08 20:00 @ 47,016.502024-01-09 20:00 @ 45,371.891d−$107.13-3.63%stop loss
58short2024-01-18 20:00 @ 41,006.002024-01-26 12:00 @ 41,280.157d 16h−$15.83-0.54%signal
59long2024-01-28 08:00 @ 42,378.472024-03-15 04:00 @ 68,252.3546d 20h$1,636.25+55.97%signal
60short2024-03-17 00:00 @ 65,337.932024-03-17 20:00 @ 68,891.4420h−$182.76-5.48%stop loss
61short2024-03-19 12:00 @ 63,124.472024-03-20 20:00 @ 66,715.471d 8h−$188.11-5.72%stop loss
62long2024-03-25 16:00 @ 69,858.472024-04-01 16:00 @ 68,267.247d−$98.42-3.04%signal
63long2024-04-08 12:00 @ 72,487.092024-04-09 04:00 @ 70,197.7316h−$106.50-3.31%stop loss
64short2024-04-13 20:00 @ 64,766.142024-04-19 08:00 @ 64,532.405d 12h$11.25+0.35%signal
65short2024-04-29 04:00 @ 62,247.452024-04-29 20:00 @ 63,980.2716h−$91.69-2.87%stop loss
66short2024-04-30 12:00 @ 61,170.062024-05-03 20:00 @ 63,143.573d 8h−$103.79-3.28%stop loss
67long2024-05-15 20:00 @ 65,972.792024-05-28 08:00 @ 67,698.5612d 12h$70.05+2.23%signal
68long2024-06-05 16:00 @ 71,639.532024-06-07 16:00 @ 69,981.142d−$78.65-2.49%stop loss
69short2024-06-11 12:00 @ 66,906.222024-06-12 12:00 @ 68,343.481d−$69.69-2.22%stop loss
70short2024-06-14 20:00 @ 65,501.802024-07-01 00:00 @ 62,778.6516d 4h$139.24+4.46%signal
71short2024-07-05 04:00 @ 55,203.662024-07-06 16:00 @ 57,514.341d 12h−$134.50-4.26%stop loss
72long2024-07-14 08:00 @ 60,043.212024-07-23 20:00 @ 65,503.109d 12h$278.33+8.91%signal
73long2024-07-27 16:00 @ 68,835.662024-07-27 20:00 @ 66,929.834h−$91.87-2.88%stop loss
74short2024-08-01 16:00 @ 62,880.022024-08-01 20:00 @ 65,013.564h−$110.50-3.48%stop loss
75short2024-08-03 00:00 @ 61,471.402024-08-08 16:00 @ 59,403.785d 16h$104.92+3.34%signal
76long2024-08-23 20:00 @ 63,590.122024-08-27 12:00 @ 62,379.923d 16h−$63.96-2.02%signal
77short2024-09-04 04:00 @ 56,621.572024-09-09 20:00 @ 57,071.515d 16h−$28.97-0.92%signal
78long2024-09-13 16:00 @ 59,635.522024-09-16 12:00 @ 57,836.472d 20h−$97.95-3.11%stop loss
79long2024-09-17 16:00 @ 61,123.222024-09-18 12:00 @ 59,338.9220h−$94.47-3.03%stop loss
80long2024-09-19 00:00 @ 61,747.652024-09-30 04:00 @ 64,526.9911d 4h$131.28+4.24%signal
81short2024-10-01 20:00 @ 61,727.452024-10-06 16:00 @ 62,702.944d 20h−$51.09-1.63%signal
82short2024-10-10 20:00 @ 59,684.962024-10-11 12:00 @ 61,324.5416h−$88.81-2.85%stop loss
83long2024-10-14 08:00 @ 64,612.422024-10-21 16:00 @ 67,340.737d 8h$120.57+3.89%signal
84long2024-10-28 20:00 @ 69,663.932024-11-03 00:00 @ 68,148.705d 4h−$76.17-2.44%stop loss
85long2024-11-06 04:00 @ 74,381.972024-11-26 00:00 @ 93,045.3919d 20h$743.24+23.92%signal
86long2024-12-05 04:00 @ 103,105.322024-12-05 16:00 @ 99,709.9412h−$115.55-3.51%stop loss
87long2024-12-16 00:00 @ 104,481.392024-12-18 20:00 @ 101,563.512d 20h−$97.21-2.98%stop loss
88short2024-12-20 12:00 @ 92,696.562024-12-20 12:00 @ 97,204.210m−$160.86-4.97%stop loss
89short2024-12-30 16:00 @ 92,063.082024-12-30 20:00 @ 94,798.564h−$97.99-3.06%stop loss
90long2025-01-06 04:00 @ 99,024.802025-01-07 16:00 @ 97,028.941d 12h−$68.65-2.16%stop loss
91short2025-01-13 12:00 @ 90,809.332025-01-13 20:00 @ 93,789.238h−$106.81-3.38%stop loss
92long2025-01-17 04:00 @ 101,025.402025-01-27 04:00 @ 101,328.8310d−$2.21-0.07%signal
93short2025-01-27 08:00 @ 98,976.502025-01-27 20:00 @ 102,391.9112h−$111.10-3.55%stop loss
94short2025-02-03 04:00 @ 93,982.802025-02-03 12:00 @ 97,689.088h−$125.22-4.04%stop loss
95short2025-02-25 00:00 @ 91,496.202025-03-02 16:00 @ 87,407.585d 16h$136.03+4.43%signal
96short2025-03-10 00:00 @ 80,674.562025-03-14 12:00 @ 84,818.364d 12h−$161.04-5.19%stop loss
97long2025-03-19 20:00 @ 85,399.682025-03-28 08:00 @ 85,158.068d 12h−$12.70-0.41%signal
98short2025-03-29 12:00 @ 82,238.652025-04-01 08:00 @ 84,287.862d 20h−$78.63-2.57%stop loss
99short2025-04-06 20:00 @ 79,556.692025-04-09 16:00 @ 82,296.152d 20h−$106.61-3.50%stop loss
100long2025-04-12 16:00 @ 84,991.092025-05-05 00:00 @ 94,211.3522d 8h$322.49+10.69%signal
101long2025-05-08 04:00 @ 99,117.822025-05-12 20:00 @ 101,792.544d 16h$77.21+2.49%signal
102long2025-05-19 00:00 @ 106,428.782025-05-19 00:00 @ 103,826.610m−$79.44-2.55%stop loss
103long2025-05-21 16:00 @ 108,958.392025-05-29 16:00 @ 105,918.258d−$94.54-3.05%stop loss
104short2025-06-05 20:00 @ 101,852.632025-06-06 12:00 @ 104,195.3416h−$73.98-2.41%stop loss
105long2025-06-09 12:00 @ 107,729.342025-06-12 20:00 @ 105,784.493d 8h−$60.01-1.97%stop loss
106short2025-06-21 20:00 @ 102,187.062025-06-23 20:00 @ 104,429.912d−$69.22-2.28%stop loss
107long2025-06-29 12:00 @ 108,469.992025-06-30 12:00 @ 106,703.701d−$52.62-1.74%stop loss
108long2025-07-02 20:00 @ 109,643.722025-07-04 12:00 @ 107,749.301d 16h−$55.67-1.85%stop loss
109long2025-07-09 20:00 @ 111,741.142025-07-15 08:00 @ 116,753.745d 12h$126.59+4.23%signal
110short2025-07-25 04:00 @ 115,361.622025-07-26 08:00 @ 118,174.451d 4h−$75.62-2.50%stop loss
111short2025-08-01 20:00 @ 113,255.742025-08-07 08:00 @ 115,840.355d 12h−$68.72-2.29%stop loss
112long2025-08-10 04:00 @ 118,503.702025-08-18 00:00 @ 116,484.087d 20h−$59.67-2.00%stop loss
113short2025-08-18 04:00 @ 115,241.752025-08-22 16:00 @ 116,342.664d 12h−$29.49-0.99%signal
114short2025-08-26 00:00 @ 110,042.092025-08-28 04:00 @ 112,810.742d 4h−$76.64-2.58%stop loss
115short2025-08-29 16:00 @ 108,312.732025-09-02 04:00 @ 110,308.063d 12h−$55.39-1.88%signal
116long2025-09-10 16:00 @ 113,824.062025-09-22 04:00 @ 114,579.9811d 12h$11.94+0.41%signal
117short2025-09-22 08:00 @ 112,432.012025-09-29 00:00 @ 112,142.126d 16h$7.43+0.25%signal
118long2025-10-01 12:00 @ 116,760.152025-10-10 16:00 @ 118,941.419d 4h$45.73+1.56%signal
119short2025-10-11 00:00 @ 112,692.462025-10-20 04:00 @ 110,122.329d 4h$63.61+2.16%signal
120long2025-10-27 00:00 @ 114,520.802025-10-29 12:00 @ 112,010.742d 12h−$69.38-2.34%stop loss
121short2025-11-03 16:00 @ 105,697.662025-11-09 20:00 @ 104,785.056d 4h$25.42+0.86%signal
122short2025-11-13 20:00 @ 98,623.372025-11-24 20:00 @ 88,294.7611d$312.27+10.56%signal
123short2025-12-15 16:00 @ 86,979.102025-12-17 12:00 @ 89,448.791d 20h−$88.28-2.91%stop loss
124short2025-12-18 20:00 @ 84,430.112025-12-19 00:00 @ 87,343.324h−$106.82-3.55%stop loss
125long2026-01-04 04:00 @ 91,210.942026-01-08 04:00 @ 89,594.724d−$57.80-1.94%stop loss
126long2026-01-14 00:00 @ 95,394.282026-01-19 00:00 @ 93,595.285d−$60.52-2.04%signal
127short2026-01-20 20:00 @ 89,676.162026-01-28 12:00 @ 90,054.917d 16h−$11.74-0.40%signal
128short2026-01-29 16:00 @ 84,880.922026-02-14 12:00 @ 70,478.8915d 20h$497.05+16.83%signal
129short2026-02-23 04:00 @ 64,881.122026-02-25 12:00 @ 66,851.892d 8h−$96.60-3.14%stop loss
130long2026-03-04 12:00 @ 71,096.522026-03-06 16:00 @ 67,843.562d 4h−$142.98-4.68%stop loss
131long2026-03-17 00:00 @ 74,861.372026-03-18 12:00 @ 72,622.081d 12h−$92.78-3.08%stop loss
132short2026-03-22 12:00 @ 68,163.362026-03-23 08:00 @ 70,173.6620h−$91.69-3.06%stop loss
133short2026-03-27 12:00 @ 66,649.972026-04-01 04:00 @ 68,938.694d 16h−$105.91-3.56%stop loss
134long2026-04-06 12:00 @ 69,597.422026-04-07 12:00 @ 68,011.271d−$70.13-2.38%stop loss
135long2026-04-08 00:00 @ 71,904.582026-04-27 16:00 @ 76,744.6519d 16h$200.07+6.84%signal
136long2026-05-04 04:00 @ 80,294.762026-05-04 08:00 @ 78,764.144h−$59.69-2.01%stop loss
137long2026-05-05 04:00 @ 80,852.972026-05-13 12:00 @ 79,071.928d 8h−$67.99-2.30%stop loss
138short2026-05-16 08:00 @ 78,318.632026-06-14 00:00 @ 64,431.1828d 16h$528.71+17.95%signal
139long2026-06-15 00:00 @ 65,715.242026-06-17 16:00 @ 64,055.512d 16h−$80.41-2.61%stop loss
140short2026-06-24 16:00 @ 60,242.852026-07-02 12:00 @ 61,341.377d 20h−$55.64-1.82%signal
141long2026-07-04 00:00 @ 62,578.012026-07-24 16:00 @ 64,052.2920d 16h$57.03+1.87%signal
142short2026-07-28 04:00 @ 63,297.342026-07-29 04:00 @ 64,468.621d−$59.14-1.93%stop loss
143long2026-08-19 16:00 @ 68,537.402026-08-28 20:00 @ 77,530.799d 4h$387.82+12.75%signal

How this was run

Orders fill at the next bar’s open, never at the close that produced the signal. When one bar’s range covered both the stop and the target, the stop was taken, because the data cannot say which came first. Fees, slippage and funding are all charged.

Warmup history was loaded from before 2022-01-01 so the requested window is fully tradable.

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